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US report warns of Iraq 'peril' US report warns of Iraq 'peril'
(about 1 hour later)
The security situation in Iraq could become "increasingly perilous" unless efforts are made to halt the violence, a US intelligence report says.The security situation in Iraq could become "increasingly perilous" unless efforts are made to halt the violence, a US intelligence report says.
The National Intelligence Estimate, presented to the White House, warned that the US would have little control if the situation further deteriorated.The National Intelligence Estimate, presented to the White House, warned that the US would have little control if the situation further deteriorated.
It said US and coalition forces were essential and a quick US withdrawal would have dangerous consequences. It cited Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to US goals in Iraq.
It is the first intelligence assessment on Iraq in more than two years.It is the first intelligence assessment on Iraq in more than two years.
A declassified version of the 90-page report warned of ominous consequences if the level of violence went unchecked. A declassified version of the report to be released on Friday said violence between Sunnis and Shias was being driven by increasing polarisation within Iraqi society, and compounded by a weak government and security force.
"Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate in the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate." It said elements of Iraq's violence - particularly sectarian conflict - could be described as civil war, according to report extracts obtained by Reuters news agency.
The extract said: "The term civil war does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict... Nonetheless the term civil war accurately describes key elements."
'Ominous consequences'
It warned of ominous consequences if the level of violence went unchecked.
Bombings and mortar attacks are a daily threat to Iraqi civilians"Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate in the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate."
It adds: "Coalition capabilities including force levels, resources and operations remain an essential stabilising element in Iraq."It adds: "Coalition capabilities including force levels, resources and operations remain an essential stabilising element in Iraq."
The administration said the document supported President George W Bush's new strategy on Iraq. The administration said the document supported President George W Bush's new strategy on Iraq announced last month, including sending an additional 21,500 troops to the region.
Last month he announced he was sending an additional 21,500 extra troops to the region. The report argued against a quick withdrawal of US troops, saying it would fracture the Iraqi army, strengthen al-Qaeda elements in the country and significantly increase violence.
National Intelligence Director John Negroponte, shortly to become the deputy to the US Secretary of State, said earlier this week that Iraq was at "a precarious juncture".
"That means the situation could deteriorate but there are prospects for increasing stability," Mr Negroponte told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.