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US report warns of Iraq 'peril' US warns of worsening Iraq crisis
(about 1 hour later)
The security situation in Iraq could become "increasingly perilous" unless efforts are made to halt the violence, a US intelligence report says. The security situation in Iraq will get worse unless action is taken to reverse increasing communal and insurgent clashes, a US intelligence report says.
The National Intelligence Estimate, presented to the White House, warned that the US would have little control if the situation further deteriorated. The National Intelligence Estimate, presented to the White House, cites sectarian violence as the main threat.
It cited Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to US goals in Iraq. The report uses the controversial term "civil war" to describe key elements of the conflict, but says it does not adequately reflect its complexities.
It is the first intelligence assessment on Iraq in more than two years.It is the first intelligence assessment on Iraq in more than two years.
A declassified version of the report to be released on Friday said violence between Sunnis and Shias was being driven by increasing polarisation within Iraqi society, and compounded by a weak government and security force. The report, produced by all 16 American spy agencies, said: "The term civil war does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict... Nonetheless the term civil war accurately describes key elements."
It said elements of Iraq's violence - particularly sectarian conflict - could be described as civil war, according to report extracts obtained by Reuters news agency. The key elements are listed as "the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence and population displacements".
The extract said: "The term civil war does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict... Nonetheless the term civil war accurately describes key elements." However, as well as sectarian violence, the report points out that there is also conflict within the Shia community and also from elements sympathetic to al-Qaeda.
The National Intelligence Estimate says violence between Sunnis and Shias is being driven by increasing polarisation, compounded by a weak government and security force.
'Ominous consequences''Ominous consequences'
It warned of ominous consequences if the level of violence went unchecked.It warned of ominous consequences if the level of violence went unchecked.
Bombings and mortar attacks are a daily threat to Iraqi civilians"Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate in the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate."Bombings and mortar attacks are a daily threat to Iraqi civilians"Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate in the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate."
It adds: "Coalition capabilities including force levels, resources and operations remain an essential stabilising element in Iraq."It adds: "Coalition capabilities including force levels, resources and operations remain an essential stabilising element in Iraq."
The administration said the document supported President George W Bush's new strategy on Iraq announced last month, including sending an additional 21,500 troops to the region. The BBC's Ian Watson in Washington says the Bush administration is likely to use the report to justify the sending of 21,500 additional troops, as it concludes the Iraqi security forces will be hard-pressed to operate on their own against Shia militias.
The report argued against a quick withdrawal of US troops, saying it would fracture the Iraqi army, strengthen al-Qaeda elements in the country and significantly increase violence. The document argued against a quick withdrawal of US troops, saying it would fracture the Iraqi army, strengthen al-Qaeda elements in the country and significantly increase violence.
It also says Iran and to a lesser extent Syria are contributing to a worsening of the situation.
National Intelligence Director John Negroponte, shortly to become the deputy to the US Secretary of State, said earlier this week that Iraq was at "a precarious juncture".National Intelligence Director John Negroponte, shortly to become the deputy to the US Secretary of State, said earlier this week that Iraq was at "a precarious juncture".
"That means the situation could deteriorate but there are prospects for increasing stability," Mr Negroponte told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee."That means the situation could deteriorate but there are prospects for increasing stability," Mr Negroponte told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.