This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/us/politics/iowa-caucuses.html

The article has changed 28 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 8 Version 9
Live Updates Ahead of the Iowa Caucuses The 2020 Iowa Caucuses Have Begun: Live Updates
(32 minutes later)
The first results in Iowa are expected as early as 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, with most results in hand by 11 p.m., though the outcomes of some satellite caucuses have begun trickling in.The first results in Iowa are expected as early as 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, with most results in hand by 11 p.m., though the outcomes of some satellite caucuses have begun trickling in.
Seven Democratic candidates are mounting competitive campaigns in Iowa. They are Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusets, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the former tech executive Andrew Yang and the former hedge fund investor Tom Steyer.Seven Democratic candidates are mounting competitive campaigns in Iowa. They are Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusets, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the former tech executive Andrew Yang and the former hedge fund investor Tom Steyer.
Polls show an exceptionally fluid race among Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg, with Ms. Klobuchar trailing.Polls show an exceptionally fluid race among Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg, with Ms. Klobuchar trailing.
There are 41 delegates up for grabs, a tiny fraction of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination.There are 41 delegates up for grabs, a tiny fraction of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
DES MOINES — After more than a year of campaigning, the Democratic presidential primary gets underway Monday night in Iowa — and the race is nearly as muddled as when it began. Follow our results page here.
With many voters split along ideological and generational lines, and others still undecided because they were not sure who would be their best chance to defeat President Trump, any of the four leading candidates could plausibly win Iowa.
Those four candidates — Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren, Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg — campaigned across Iowa over the weekend, making their final pitches to voters and, in some cases, reigniting divisions that had surfaced in the party four years ago. Mr. Sanders, considered the one to beat based on recent polling, drew most of the fire. After more than a year of campaigning, the Democratic presidential primary gets underway Monday night in Iowa — and the race is nearly as muddled as when it began.
With many Iowans split along ideological and generational lines, and others still undecided because they were not sure who would be their best chance to defeat President Trump, any of the four leading candidates could plausibly win the caucuses.
Those four candidates — Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren, Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg — campaigned across the state over the weekend, making their final pitches and, in some cases, reigniting divisions that had surfaced in the party four years ago. Mr. Sanders, considered the one to beat based on recent polling, drew most of the fire.
Much of the uncertainty stems from the unique nature of Iowa’s caucus system. Attendees can rally behind another candidate on a second ballot if their preferred choice does not claim 15 percent in the initial round.Much of the uncertainty stems from the unique nature of Iowa’s caucus system. Attendees can rally behind another candidate on a second ballot if their preferred choice does not claim 15 percent in the initial round.
It is those voters who will play the most pivotal role Monday. Mr. Sanders, for example, might garner the most overall votes on the first ballot, but if one of his rivals could amass enough support from the lesser candidates, he or she could vault past Mr. Sanders on the realignment round. It is those caucusgoers who will play the most pivotal role Monday. Mr. Sanders, for example, might garner the most overall support on the first ballot, but if one of his rivals could amass enough support from the lesser candidates, he or she could vault past Mr. Sanders on the realignment round.
The key question, then, is where do the backers of Ms. Klobuchar, Mr. Steyer and Mr. Yang, who have all been polling below 15 percent, go on that second vote? The key question, then, is where do the backers of Ms. Klobuchar, Mr. Steyer and Mr. Yang, who have all been polling below 15 percent, go in that second round?
But it gets even more complicated. Caucusgoers can also stand as “Uncommitted.” So those most determined fence sitters could emerge as power brokers on the second ballot.But it gets even more complicated. Caucusgoers can also stand as “Uncommitted.” So those most determined fence sitters could emerge as power brokers on the second ballot.
Welcome to Iowa — and hang on.Welcome to Iowa — and hang on.
If you’re already following our results page, you may have been surprised to see some results already trickling in.If you’re already following our results page, you may have been surprised to see some results already trickling in.
That’s because, while the caucuses don’t officially start until 8 p.m. Eastern time, some satellite caucuses — some of which are overseas, in France and Scotland, for instance — have already concluded.That’s because, while the caucuses don’t officially start until 8 p.m. Eastern time, some satellite caucuses — some of which are overseas, in France and Scotland, for instance — have already concluded.
Follow live coverage and analysis from Times reporters in Iowa and New York.
Nate Cohn, in New York
9m ago
Many of you may know that there are *four* different sets of results this year. They could all split.
Read about that “perfect storm” here.
Reid Epstein, reporting from Johnston
20m ago
Rhonda Gooding, Elizabeth Warren’s precinct captain, has a list of people who committed to Warren. She says she’ll call if they’re not here by 6:30.
Nick Corasaniti, reporting from Des Moines
29m ago
The Democratic candidates ran more than $2.1 million worth of ads in Iowa over 48 hours on Saturday and Sunday, making their final arguments.
But take the results with enough grains of salt to cover a road in an Iowa blizzard. Fewer than 200 people participated in the satellite caucuses that are reporting results, and we’re expecting more than 200,000 people to caucus in total tonight.But take the results with enough grains of salt to cover a road in an Iowa blizzard. Fewer than 200 people participated in the satellite caucuses that are reporting results, and we’re expecting more than 200,000 people to caucus in total tonight.
It’s been a year since Pete Buttigieg began his presidential campaign and 10 days since he’s been stumping nonstop in the run-up to Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, so he could be forgiven for not quite knowing what was happening. Follow live coverage and analysis from Times reporters in Iowa and New York.
“Happy caucus day,” the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., told a crowd of excited supporters at a canvass kickoff Monday morning in West Des Moines. “It feels so great out there I don’t even know what time it is. We’ve done so many interviews. Everything comes down to today.” Jennifer Medina, reporting from Compton, Calif.
Mr. Buttigieg spent much of the last week in rural Iowa, drawing large crowds in sparsely populated counties that carry a disproportionate share of the state’s delegates. He’s built a strong organization to ferret out every supporter across the state: in rural Jasper County on Sunday Mr. Buttigieg had 75 volunteers canvassing for him while Mr. Biden had just two, officials said. 1m ago
He has bet his campaign on a strong finish, and no candidate has more riding on Iowa’s result than him. If he places first or second — or at least ahead of Mr. Biden — he will have an argument to be the party establishment’s alternative to Mr. Sanders. There’s one candidate saying that whatever happens in Iowa tonight does not matter all that much: Michael R. Bloomberg, who’s skipping the caucuses.
But if not, he could be in big trouble. Jeremy Peters, at a G.O.P. caucus in Cedar Rapids
Mr. Buttigieg has spent down nearly all of his campaign war chest on Iowa and New Hampshire, with another $2 million on TV ads in South Carolina, where his poll numbers have barely budged. It’s left him being outspent on Iowa TV in the final week before the caucuses. If he doesn’t post a strong finish in Iowa, his path becomes far narrower. 2m ago
It is standing room only at the Republican caucus site here, where upwards of 250 people have showed up for a vote that doesn’t appear in doubt.
Trip Gabriel, reporting from Dubuque
3m ago
A crowded cafeteria in Dubuque as the caucus chairwoman welcomes the crowd. One vet tells me turnout is about the same as 2016.
As the Iowa campaign trail lit up over the weekend, providing air cover for each candidate was more than $2.1 million worth of ads that ran in the state over 48 hours on Saturday and Sunday.
Though Mr. Biden only spent roughly $184,000 in Iowa over the final two days — the least of the top seven candidates in the race — he was buttressed on the airwaves by a supportive super PAC, Unite the Country. Combined, more than $510,000 worth of ads supporting Mr. Biden hit the Iowa airwaves over the weekend, making the case that he was most suited to beat Mr. Trump and “calm the storm” in the country.
The biggest personal spender was Mr. Steyer at $484,000, whose nine-figure spending on the race would be making headlines if Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, wasn’t spending nearly double (Mr. Bloomberg crossed the $300 million national threshold on Monday). Mr. Steyer’s top two ads in Iowa addressed his vision for the economy and a plan to make school lunches healthier and more affordable.
Mr. Sanders spent just under $400,000; his top two ads focused on protecting social security and summarized his stump speech, which includes calls for “Medicare for all” and making billionaires pay their fair share.
At $290,000, Mr. Yang had a significant presence over the Iowa airwaves and on the ground in the final weekend. Despite still being mired in low-single digits in polling, Mr. Yang flooded the airwaves, and some of his most aired ads focused on media coverage of his upstart campaign and his vision to address an economy threatened by automation.
Mr. Buttigieg aired $284,000, with a heavy focus on one ad featuring Iowa state senator William Dotzler touting Mr. Buttigieg’s vision. His other ad, a closing argument that calls for a generational shift and vision for the country, was on significant rotation as well.
Ms. Klobuchar spent $271,000, running an ad that detailed her plan for her first 100 days in office, which features 137 executive actions she plans to take early in her administration, and another ad contrasting Mr. Trump’s style with Ms. Klobuchar’s.
And Ms. Warren, who waited until late last year to advertise aggressively, spent roughly a quarter of a million dollars on air since Saturday. One of her top two ads carried the same message she had on placards over the weekend: Ms. Warren will unite the party. With numerous Democrats and even former Trump supporters speaking direct to camera, the ad stresses: “we can’t afford a fractured party in 2020.”
Iowa Democrats are expecting a record caucus participation Monday night, with turnout potentially topping the 240,000 who caucused in 2008. Estimates of the statewide caucusgoer universe from the campaigns, party officials and Iowa elected Democrats range between 225,000 and 300,000.Iowa Democrats are expecting a record caucus participation Monday night, with turnout potentially topping the 240,000 who caucused in 2008. Estimates of the statewide caucusgoer universe from the campaigns, party officials and Iowa elected Democrats range between 225,000 and 300,000.
One of the biggest unknowns — the weather — is expected to be favorable for a large turnout: It is clear and not too cold across the state, at least not for February in Iowa. As party officials came to grips in recent weeks with the prospect of a larger turnout than any of them had anticipated, they scrambled to secure larger locations for their caucus precincts.One of the biggest unknowns — the weather — is expected to be favorable for a large turnout: It is clear and not too cold across the state, at least not for February in Iowa. As party officials came to grips in recent weeks with the prospect of a larger turnout than any of them had anticipated, they scrambled to secure larger locations for their caucus precincts.
In Dallas County, a western Des Moines suburb that is the fifth-fastest growing county in the country, Bryce Smith, the Democratic county chairman, said Monday that he expected between 45 and 50 percent of registered Democrats to participate; that’s up from about 30 percent in 2016.In Dallas County, a western Des Moines suburb that is the fifth-fastest growing county in the country, Bryce Smith, the Democratic county chairman, said Monday that he expected between 45 and 50 percent of registered Democrats to participate; that’s up from about 30 percent in 2016.
Two weeks ago, Mr. Smith had to relocate a precinct when officials at the community college that hosted it in 2016 said it could not accommodate more than 200 people.Two weeks ago, Mr. Smith had to relocate a precinct when officials at the community college that hosted it in 2016 said it could not accommodate more than 200 people.
Mr. Smith, with help from the Iowa Democratic Party, found an alternative — a nearby venue that had been reserved by one of the presidential campaigns for its own caucus night event. “It’s going to be tight, it’s going to be crowded,” Mr. Smith said. “That’s the whole point. The rooms are meant to be full.” Mr. Smith, with help from the Iowa Democratic Party, found an alternative — a nearby venue that had been reserved by one of the presidential campaigns for its own caucus night event. “It’s going to be tight, it’s going to be crowded,” Mr. Smith said. “That’s the whole point. The rooms are meant to be full.”
One of the more consequential sub-primaries of Monday’s contest is the race between Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders to become the progressive standard-bearer in the 2020 contest.One of the more consequential sub-primaries of Monday’s contest is the race between Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders to become the progressive standard-bearer in the 2020 contest.
Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren recently clashed over a private remark that she said he had made in 2018 — telling her a woman could not win the White House — and that he denied. For the most part, though, these two leading liberals in the race have stayed away from direct confrontation for the last year. Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren recently clashed over a private remark that she said he had made in 2018 — telling her a woman could not win the White House — and that he denied. For the most part, though, these two leading liberals have stayed away from direct confrontation.
That has partly been strategic. Mr. Sanders has a solid base and Ms. Warren has sought to first grow her support without trying to take directly from him.That has partly been strategic. Mr. Sanders has a solid base and Ms. Warren has sought to first grow her support without trying to take directly from him.
But make no mistake: The path to the Democratic nomination for both candidates involves eventually consolidating the base of the other, if not driving them from the race entirely. But make no mistake: The path to the Democratic nomination for both candidates involves eventually consolidating their bases, if not driving the other from the race entirely.
And the first part of that primary within the primary begins on Monday.And the first part of that primary within the primary begins on Monday.
Whoever finishes first in Iowa will then have momentum — and likely a financial boost — heading into New Hampshire and beyond.Whoever finishes first in Iowa will then have momentum — and likely a financial boost — heading into New Hampshire and beyond.
One of the biggest predictors of who will finish first, second and third will be not just who votes but also how old those voters are.One of the biggest predictors of who will finish first, second and third will be not just who votes but also how old those voters are.
Age has been one of the biggest divides in the 2020 race, especially between supporters of Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders. Young voters have generally swooned for Mr. Sanders and old voters have flocked to Mr. Biden.Age has been one of the biggest divides in the 2020 race, especially between supporters of Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders. Young voters have generally swooned for Mr. Sanders and old voters have flocked to Mr. Biden.
The New York Times/Siena College poll last month showed Mr. Sanders carrying a sizable 40 percent of voters under the age of 30. That was the highest percentage for any candidate for any age group. Support for the Vermont senator declined in each successively older age bracket down to single digits — 9 percent — among those who were 65 or older.The New York Times/Siena College poll last month showed Mr. Sanders carrying a sizable 40 percent of voters under the age of 30. That was the highest percentage for any candidate for any age group. Support for the Vermont senator declined in each successively older age bracket down to single digits — 9 percent — among those who were 65 or older.
It was the opposite story for Mr. Biden, who captured a 32 percent plurality of those who were 65 or older. His worst group was younger voters under 30. He only carried 10 percent of such voters.It was the opposite story for Mr. Biden, who captured a 32 percent plurality of those who were 65 or older. His worst group was younger voters under 30. He only carried 10 percent of such voters.
The same split has been present in poll after poll. The Des Moines Register/CNN poll in early January showed Mr. Sanders with 38 percent of voters under 50 — and Mr. Biden with 37 percent of voters over 65.The same split has been present in poll after poll. The Des Moines Register/CNN poll in early January showed Mr. Sanders with 38 percent of voters under 50 — and Mr. Biden with 37 percent of voters over 65.
Typically, older people are more reliable voters. But caucuses are different, as our colleague Nate Cohn recently pointed out, and many of the differences in polls can be traced to different projected models of who will actually turn out on Monday.Typically, older people are more reliable voters. But caucuses are different, as our colleague Nate Cohn recently pointed out, and many of the differences in polls can be traced to different projected models of who will actually turn out on Monday.
The leaders of Iowa’s county Democrats are a group that has long been in search of a candidate to fall in love with. Since 2018, they have harbored suspicions about septuagenarian candidates and have longed for somebody fresh and new.The leaders of Iowa’s county Democrats are a group that has long been in search of a candidate to fall in love with. Since 2018, they have harbored suspicions about septuagenarian candidates and have longed for somebody fresh and new.
And now many of them think that Mr. Sanders, aged 78 and a member of Congress for three decades, is going to win the Iowa caucuses.And now many of them think that Mr. Sanders, aged 78 and a member of Congress for three decades, is going to win the Iowa caucuses.
In conversations this weekend with 24 of 99 county chairs, 14 said they believed Mr. Sanders would place first in Monday night’s caucuses. Six predicted Mr. Biden would win, while four said they still could not say who would win.In conversations this weekend with 24 of 99 county chairs, 14 said they believed Mr. Sanders would place first in Monday night’s caucuses. Six predicted Mr. Biden would win, while four said they still could not say who would win.
“I suspect that Bernie will end up in first place, as the polling indicates,” said Nathan Thompson, the party chairman in Winneshiek County. “It’s consistent with what I’ve seen in northeast Iowa.”“I suspect that Bernie will end up in first place, as the polling indicates,” said Nathan Thompson, the party chairman in Winneshiek County. “It’s consistent with what I’ve seen in northeast Iowa.”
Several acknowledged that their favorite candidate was not likely to win.Several acknowledged that their favorite candidate was not likely to win.
Marjie Foster, the Decatur County chairwoman, said she planned to caucus for Ms. Klobuchar but predicted she would finish behind Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg.Marjie Foster, the Decatur County chairwoman, said she planned to caucus for Ms. Klobuchar but predicted she would finish behind Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg.
Terry Kocher, the Humboldt County chairman, said he expected Mr. Biden to win but was hoping that Mr. Buttigieg, for whom he will caucus, would do well.Terry Kocher, the Humboldt County chairman, said he expected Mr. Biden to win but was hoping that Mr. Buttigieg, for whom he will caucus, would do well.
And Rachel Bly, a co-chairwoman in Poweshiek County east of Des Moines, predicted a split decision, with one candidate taking the most delegates and another winning the most raw votes.And Rachel Bly, a co-chairwoman in Poweshiek County east of Des Moines, predicted a split decision, with one candidate taking the most delegates and another winning the most raw votes.
“Sanders has pockets of support, but won’t necessarily carry the rural areas or get delegates in as many places as some of the others,” she said. “He may win the numbers game, but not the delegate game.”“Sanders has pockets of support, but won’t necessarily carry the rural areas or get delegates in as many places as some of the others,” she said. “He may win the numbers game, but not the delegate game.”
Maggie Astor contributed reporting. Maggie Astor, Nick Corasaniti, Reid J. Epstein, Shane Goldmacher and Jonathan Martin contributed reporting.