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Live Updates Ahead of the Iowa Caucuses Live Updates Ahead of the Iowa Caucuses
(32 minutes later)
The first results in Iowa are expected as early as 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, with most results in hand by 11 p.m., though the outcomes of some satellite caucuses have begun trickling in.The first results in Iowa are expected as early as 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, with most results in hand by 11 p.m., though the outcomes of some satellite caucuses have begun trickling in.
Seven Democratic candidates are mounting competitive campaigns in Iowa. They are Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusets, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the former tech executive Andrew Yang and the former hedge fund investor Tom Steyer.Seven Democratic candidates are mounting competitive campaigns in Iowa. They are Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusets, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the former tech executive Andrew Yang and the former hedge fund investor Tom Steyer.
Polls show an exceptionally fluid race among Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg, with Ms. Klobuchar trailing.Polls show an exceptionally fluid race among Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg, with Ms. Klobuchar trailing.
There are 41 delegates up for grabs, a tiny fraction of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination.There are 41 delegates up for grabs, a tiny fraction of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
DES MOINES — After more than a year of campaigning, the Democratic presidential primary gets underway Monday night in Iowa — and the race is nearly as muddled as when it began.DES MOINES — After more than a year of campaigning, the Democratic presidential primary gets underway Monday night in Iowa — and the race is nearly as muddled as when it began.
With many voters split along ideological and generational lines, and others still undecided because they were not sure who would be their best chance to defeat President Trump, any of the four leading candidates could plausibly win Iowa.With many voters split along ideological and generational lines, and others still undecided because they were not sure who would be their best chance to defeat President Trump, any of the four leading candidates could plausibly win Iowa.
Those four candidates — Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren, Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg — campaigned across Iowa over the weekend, making their final pitches to voters and, in some cases, reigniting divisions that had surfaced in the party four years ago. Mr. Sanders, considered the one to beat based on recent polling, drew most of the fire.Those four candidates — Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren, Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg — campaigned across Iowa over the weekend, making their final pitches to voters and, in some cases, reigniting divisions that had surfaced in the party four years ago. Mr. Sanders, considered the one to beat based on recent polling, drew most of the fire.
Much of the uncertainty stems from the unique nature of Iowa’s caucus system. Attendees can rally behind another candidate on a second ballot if their preferred choice does not claim 15 percent in the initial round.Much of the uncertainty stems from the unique nature of Iowa’s caucus system. Attendees can rally behind another candidate on a second ballot if their preferred choice does not claim 15 percent in the initial round.
It is those voters who will play the most pivotal role Monday. Mr. Sanders, for example, might garner the most overall votes on the first ballot, but if one of his rivals could amass enough support from the lesser candidates, he or she could vault past Mr. Sanders on the realignment round.It is those voters who will play the most pivotal role Monday. Mr. Sanders, for example, might garner the most overall votes on the first ballot, but if one of his rivals could amass enough support from the lesser candidates, he or she could vault past Mr. Sanders on the realignment round.
The key question, then, is where do the backers of Ms. Klobuchar, Mr. Steyer and Mr. Yang, who have all been polling below 15 percent, go on that second vote?The key question, then, is where do the backers of Ms. Klobuchar, Mr. Steyer and Mr. Yang, who have all been polling below 15 percent, go on that second vote?
But it gets even more complicated. Caucusgoers can also stand as “Uncommitted.” So those most determined fence sitters could emerge as power brokers on the second ballot.But it gets even more complicated. Caucusgoers can also stand as “Uncommitted.” So those most determined fence sitters could emerge as power brokers on the second ballot.
Welcome to Iowa — and hang on.Welcome to Iowa — and hang on.
If you’re already following our results page, you may have been surprised to see some results already trickling in.If you’re already following our results page, you may have been surprised to see some results already trickling in.
That’s because, while the caucuses don’t officially start until 8 p.m. Eastern time, some satellite caucuses — some of which are overseas, in France and Scotland, for instance — have already concluded.That’s because, while the caucuses don’t officially start until 8 p.m. Eastern time, some satellite caucuses — some of which are overseas, in France and Scotland, for instance — have already concluded.
Follow live coverage and analysis from Times reporters in Iowa and New York.Follow live coverage and analysis from Times reporters in Iowa and New York.
Maggie Astor, reporting from Des Moines Nate Cohn, in New York
4m ago 9m ago
I'm at a Republican caucus (yes, they're happening) in Waukee, Iowa, where Mick Mulvaney is scheduled to make an appearance. Many of you may know that there are *four* different sets of results this year. They could all split.
Reid Epstein, reporting from Johnston
11m ago
Greetings from Johnston. I just arrived here to learn that Amy Klobuchar will be speaking at this precinct tonight.
Michael M. Grynbaum, reporting from Des Moines
21m ago
I'm here at the Des Moines Marriott, the see-and-be-seen spot for reporters, TV anchors and campaign folks
to gather after a long day on the trail. Read about that “perfect storm” here.
Reid Epstein, reporting from Johnston
20m ago
Rhonda Gooding, Elizabeth Warren’s precinct captain, has a list of people who committed to Warren. She says she’ll call if they’re not here by 6:30.
Nick Corasaniti, reporting from Des Moines
29m ago
The Democratic candidates ran more than $2.1 million worth of ads in Iowa over 48 hours on Saturday and Sunday, making their final arguments.
But take the results with enough grains of salt to cover a road in an Iowa blizzard. Fewer than 200 people participated in the satellite caucuses that are reporting results, and we’re expecting more than 200,000 people to caucus in total tonight.But take the results with enough grains of salt to cover a road in an Iowa blizzard. Fewer than 200 people participated in the satellite caucuses that are reporting results, and we’re expecting more than 200,000 people to caucus in total tonight.
It’s been a year since Pete Buttigieg began his presidential campaign and 10 days since he’s been stumping nonstop in the run-up to Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, so he could be forgiven for not quite knowing what was happening.It’s been a year since Pete Buttigieg began his presidential campaign and 10 days since he’s been stumping nonstop in the run-up to Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, so he could be forgiven for not quite knowing what was happening.
“Happy caucus day,” the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., told a crowd of excited supporters at a canvass kickoff Monday morning in West Des Moines. “It feels so great out there I don’t even know what time it is. We’ve done so many interviews. Everything comes down to today.”“Happy caucus day,” the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., told a crowd of excited supporters at a canvass kickoff Monday morning in West Des Moines. “It feels so great out there I don’t even know what time it is. We’ve done so many interviews. Everything comes down to today.”
Mr. Buttigieg spent much of the last week in rural Iowa, drawing large crowds in sparsely populated counties that carry a disproportionate share of the state’s delegates. He’s built a strong organization to ferret out every supporter across the state: in rural Jasper County on Sunday Mr. Buttigieg had 75 volunteers canvassing for him while Mr. Biden had just two, officials said.Mr. Buttigieg spent much of the last week in rural Iowa, drawing large crowds in sparsely populated counties that carry a disproportionate share of the state’s delegates. He’s built a strong organization to ferret out every supporter across the state: in rural Jasper County on Sunday Mr. Buttigieg had 75 volunteers canvassing for him while Mr. Biden had just two, officials said.
He has bet his campaign on a strong finish, and no candidate has more riding on Iowa’s result than him. If he places first or second — or at least ahead of Mr. Biden — he will have an argument to be the party establishment’s alternative to Mr. Sanders.He has bet his campaign on a strong finish, and no candidate has more riding on Iowa’s result than him. If he places first or second — or at least ahead of Mr. Biden — he will have an argument to be the party establishment’s alternative to Mr. Sanders.
But if not, he could be in big trouble.But if not, he could be in big trouble.
Mr. Buttigieg has spent down nearly all of his campaign war chest on Iowa and New Hampshire, with another $2 million on TV ads in South Carolina, where his poll numbers have barely budged. It’s left him being outspent on Iowa TV in the final week before the caucuses. If he doesn’t post a strong finish in Iowa, his path becomes far narrower.Mr. Buttigieg has spent down nearly all of his campaign war chest on Iowa and New Hampshire, with another $2 million on TV ads in South Carolina, where his poll numbers have barely budged. It’s left him being outspent on Iowa TV in the final week before the caucuses. If he doesn’t post a strong finish in Iowa, his path becomes far narrower.
Iowa Democrats are expecting a record caucus participation Monday night, with turnout potentially topping the 240,000 who caucused in 2008. Estimates of the statewide caucusgoer universe from the campaigns, party officials and Iowa elected Democrats range between 225,000 and 300,000.Iowa Democrats are expecting a record caucus participation Monday night, with turnout potentially topping the 240,000 who caucused in 2008. Estimates of the statewide caucusgoer universe from the campaigns, party officials and Iowa elected Democrats range between 225,000 and 300,000.
One of the biggest unknowns — the weather — is expected to be favorable for a large turnout: It is clear and not too cold across the state, at least not for February in Iowa. As party officials came to grips in recent weeks with the prospect of a larger turnout than any of them had anticipated, they scrambled to secure larger locations for their caucus precincts.One of the biggest unknowns — the weather — is expected to be favorable for a large turnout: It is clear and not too cold across the state, at least not for February in Iowa. As party officials came to grips in recent weeks with the prospect of a larger turnout than any of them had anticipated, they scrambled to secure larger locations for their caucus precincts.
In Dallas County, a western Des Moines suburb that is the fifth-fastest growing county in the country, Bryce Smith, the Democratic county chairman, said Monday that he expected between 45 and 50 percent of registered Democrats to participate; that’s up from about 30 percent in 2016.In Dallas County, a western Des Moines suburb that is the fifth-fastest growing county in the country, Bryce Smith, the Democratic county chairman, said Monday that he expected between 45 and 50 percent of registered Democrats to participate; that’s up from about 30 percent in 2016.
Two weeks ago, Mr. Smith had to relocate a precinct when officials at the community college that hosted it in 2016 said it could not accommodate more than 200 people.Two weeks ago, Mr. Smith had to relocate a precinct when officials at the community college that hosted it in 2016 said it could not accommodate more than 200 people.
Mr. Smith, with help from the Iowa Democratic Party, found an alternative — a nearby venue that had been reserved by one of the presidential campaigns for its own caucus night event. “It’s going to be tight, it’s going to be crowded,” Mr. Smith said. “That’s the whole point. The rooms are meant to be full.”Mr. Smith, with help from the Iowa Democratic Party, found an alternative — a nearby venue that had been reserved by one of the presidential campaigns for its own caucus night event. “It’s going to be tight, it’s going to be crowded,” Mr. Smith said. “That’s the whole point. The rooms are meant to be full.”
One of the more consequential sub-primaries of Monday’s contest is the race between Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders to become the progressive standard-bearer in the 2020 contest.One of the more consequential sub-primaries of Monday’s contest is the race between Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders to become the progressive standard-bearer in the 2020 contest.
Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren recently clashed over a private remark that she said he had made in 2018 — telling her a woman could not win the White House — and that he denied. For the most part, though, these two leading liberals in the race have stayed away from direct confrontation for the last year.Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren recently clashed over a private remark that she said he had made in 2018 — telling her a woman could not win the White House — and that he denied. For the most part, though, these two leading liberals in the race have stayed away from direct confrontation for the last year.
That has partly been strategic. Mr. Sanders has a solid base and Ms. Warren has sought to first grow her support without trying to take directly from him.That has partly been strategic. Mr. Sanders has a solid base and Ms. Warren has sought to first grow her support without trying to take directly from him.
But make no mistake: The path to the Democratic nomination for both candidates involves eventually consolidating the base of the other, if not driving them from the race entirely.But make no mistake: The path to the Democratic nomination for both candidates involves eventually consolidating the base of the other, if not driving them from the race entirely.
And the first part of that primary within the primary begins on Monday.And the first part of that primary within the primary begins on Monday.
Whoever finishes first in Iowa will then have momentum — and likely a financial boost — heading into New Hampshire and beyond.Whoever finishes first in Iowa will then have momentum — and likely a financial boost — heading into New Hampshire and beyond.
One of the biggest predictors of who will finish first, second and third will be not just who votes but also how old those voters are.One of the biggest predictors of who will finish first, second and third will be not just who votes but also how old those voters are.
Age has been one of the biggest divides in the 2020 race, especially between supporters of Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders. Young voters have generally swooned for Mr. Sanders and old voters have flocked to Mr. Biden.Age has been one of the biggest divides in the 2020 race, especially between supporters of Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders. Young voters have generally swooned for Mr. Sanders and old voters have flocked to Mr. Biden.
The New York Times/Siena College poll last month showed Mr. Sanders carrying a sizable 40 percent of voters under the age of 30. That was the highest percentage for any candidate for any age group. Support for the Vermont senator declined in each successively older age bracket down to single digits — 9 percent — among those who were 65 or older.The New York Times/Siena College poll last month showed Mr. Sanders carrying a sizable 40 percent of voters under the age of 30. That was the highest percentage for any candidate for any age group. Support for the Vermont senator declined in each successively older age bracket down to single digits — 9 percent — among those who were 65 or older.
It was the opposite story for Mr. Biden, who captured a 32 percent plurality of those who were 65 or older. His worst group was younger voters under 30. He only carried 10 percent of such voters.It was the opposite story for Mr. Biden, who captured a 32 percent plurality of those who were 65 or older. His worst group was younger voters under 30. He only carried 10 percent of such voters.
The same split has been present in poll after poll. The Des Moines Register/CNN poll in early January showed Mr. Sanders with 38 percent of voters under 50 — and Mr. Biden with 37 percent of voters over 65.The same split has been present in poll after poll. The Des Moines Register/CNN poll in early January showed Mr. Sanders with 38 percent of voters under 50 — and Mr. Biden with 37 percent of voters over 65.
Typically, older people are more reliable voters. But caucuses are different, as our colleague Nate Cohn recently pointed out, and many of the differences in polls can be traced to different projected models of who will actually turn out on Monday.Typically, older people are more reliable voters. But caucuses are different, as our colleague Nate Cohn recently pointed out, and many of the differences in polls can be traced to different projected models of who will actually turn out on Monday.
The leaders of Iowa’s county Democrats are a group that has long been in search of a candidate to fall in love with. Since 2018, they have harbored suspicions about septuagenarian candidates and have longed for somebody fresh and new.The leaders of Iowa’s county Democrats are a group that has long been in search of a candidate to fall in love with. Since 2018, they have harbored suspicions about septuagenarian candidates and have longed for somebody fresh and new.
And now many of them think that Mr. Sanders, aged 78 and a member of Congress for three decades, is going to win the Iowa caucuses.And now many of them think that Mr. Sanders, aged 78 and a member of Congress for three decades, is going to win the Iowa caucuses.
In conversations this weekend with 24 of 99 county chairs, 14 said they believed Mr. Sanders would place first in Monday night’s caucuses. Six predicted Mr. Biden would win, while four said they still could not say who would win.In conversations this weekend with 24 of 99 county chairs, 14 said they believed Mr. Sanders would place first in Monday night’s caucuses. Six predicted Mr. Biden would win, while four said they still could not say who would win.
“I suspect that Bernie will end up in first place, as the polling indicates,” said Nathan Thompson, the party chairman in Winneshiek County. “It’s consistent with what I’ve seen in northeast Iowa.”“I suspect that Bernie will end up in first place, as the polling indicates,” said Nathan Thompson, the party chairman in Winneshiek County. “It’s consistent with what I’ve seen in northeast Iowa.”
Several acknowledged that their favorite candidate was not likely to win.Several acknowledged that their favorite candidate was not likely to win.
Marjie Foster, the Decatur County chairwoman, said she planned to caucus for Ms. Klobuchar but predicted she would finish behind Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg.Marjie Foster, the Decatur County chairwoman, said she planned to caucus for Ms. Klobuchar but predicted she would finish behind Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg.
Terry Kocher, the Humboldt County chairman, said he expected Mr. Biden to win but was hoping that Mr. Buttigieg, for whom he will caucus, would do well.Terry Kocher, the Humboldt County chairman, said he expected Mr. Biden to win but was hoping that Mr. Buttigieg, for whom he will caucus, would do well.
And Rachel Bly, a co-chairwoman in Poweshiek County east of Des Moines, predicted a split decision, with one candidate taking the most delegates and another winning the most raw votes.And Rachel Bly, a co-chairwoman in Poweshiek County east of Des Moines, predicted a split decision, with one candidate taking the most delegates and another winning the most raw votes.
“Sanders has pockets of support, but won’t necessarily carry the rural areas or get delegates in as many places as some of the others,” she said. “He may win the numbers game, but not the delegate game.”“Sanders has pockets of support, but won’t necessarily carry the rural areas or get delegates in as many places as some of the others,” she said. “He may win the numbers game, but not the delegate game.”
Maggie Astor contributed reporting.Maggie Astor contributed reporting.