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The 2020 Iowa Caucuses Have Begun: Live Updates The 2020 Iowa Caucuses Have Begun: Live Updates
(32 minutes later)
The first results in Iowa are expected as early as 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, with most results in hand by 11 p.m., though the outcomes of some satellite caucuses have begun trickling in.The first results in Iowa are expected as early as 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, with most results in hand by 11 p.m., though the outcomes of some satellite caucuses have begun trickling in.
Seven Democratic candidates are mounting competitive campaigns in Iowa. They are Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusets, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the former tech executive Andrew Yang and the former hedge fund investor Tom Steyer.Seven Democratic candidates are mounting competitive campaigns in Iowa. They are Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusets, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the former tech executive Andrew Yang and the former hedge fund investor Tom Steyer.
Polls show an exceptionally fluid race among Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg, with Ms. Klobuchar trailing.Polls show an exceptionally fluid race among Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg, with Ms. Klobuchar trailing.
There are 41 delegates up for grabs, a tiny fraction of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination.There are 41 delegates up for grabs, a tiny fraction of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
Follow our results page here.Follow our results page here.
After more than a year of campaigning, the Democratic presidential primary gets underway Monday night in Iowa — and the race is nearly as muddled as when it began. After more than a year of debates, stump speeches, entrances and exits, Iowa caucusgoers are finally weighing in on which Democratic candidate should challenge President Trump.
With many Iowans split along ideological and generational lines, and others still undecided because they were not sure who would be their best chance to defeat President Trump, any of the four leading candidates could plausibly win the caucuses. As they gather in high school gymnasiums, libraries and community centers, Iowans will choose between seven candidates mounting competitive bids in the state.
With many Iowans split along ideological and generational lines, and others still undecided because they were not sure who would be their best chance to defeat Mr. Trump, any of the four leading candidates could plausibly win the caucuses.
Those four candidates — Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren, Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg — campaigned across the state over the weekend, making their final pitches and, in some cases, reigniting divisions that had surfaced in the party four years ago. Mr. Sanders, considered the one to beat based on recent polling, drew most of the fire.Those four candidates — Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren, Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg — campaigned across the state over the weekend, making their final pitches and, in some cases, reigniting divisions that had surfaced in the party four years ago. Mr. Sanders, considered the one to beat based on recent polling, drew most of the fire.
Much of the uncertainty stems from the unique nature of Iowa’s caucus system. Attendees can rally behind another candidate on a second ballot if their preferred choice does not claim 15 percent in the initial round.Much of the uncertainty stems from the unique nature of Iowa’s caucus system. Attendees can rally behind another candidate on a second ballot if their preferred choice does not claim 15 percent in the initial round.
It is those caucusgoers who will play the most pivotal role Monday. Mr. Sanders, for example, might garner the most overall support on the first ballot, but if one of his rivals could amass enough support from the lesser candidates, he or she could vault past Mr. Sanders on the realignment round.It is those caucusgoers who will play the most pivotal role Monday. Mr. Sanders, for example, might garner the most overall support on the first ballot, but if one of his rivals could amass enough support from the lesser candidates, he or she could vault past Mr. Sanders on the realignment round.
The key question, then, is where do the backers of Ms. Klobuchar, Mr. Steyer and Mr. Yang, who have all been polling below 15 percent, go in that second round?The key question, then, is where do the backers of Ms. Klobuchar, Mr. Steyer and Mr. Yang, who have all been polling below 15 percent, go in that second round?
But it gets even more complicated. Caucusgoers can also stand as “Uncommitted.” So those most determined fence sitters could emerge as power brokers on the second ballot.But it gets even more complicated. Caucusgoers can also stand as “Uncommitted.” So those most determined fence sitters could emerge as power brokers on the second ballot.
Welcome to Iowa — and hang on.Welcome to Iowa — and hang on.
DES MOINES — Ms. Warren tried to win some last-minute support at Roosevelt High School here, holding a photo line and thanking caucusgoers as they headed into a small gymnasium.
Ms. Warren, who needs to do well in Iowa in order to springboard her candidacy in other parts of the country, appeared confident and relaxed as she shook hands with well-wishers, many of whom were wearing “Warren” pins and buttons, or donning her signature “liberty green” color.
JOHNSTON — Ms. Klobuchar made her final pitch to Iowa caucus goers, telling a crowd of about 350 that Democrats must defeat Mr. Trump in November. “The most important thing is that we win in the general election,” she said, addressing a precinct at Johnston Middle School.
Follow live coverage and analysis from Times reporters in Iowa and New York.
Maggie Astor, reporting from Waukee
Just now
Waukee precinct 5 (one of three precincts holding G.O.P. caucuses here): 33 for Trump, 0 for anyone else.
Shane Goldmacher, reporting from Des Moines
2m ago
The caucuses aren’t just about getting delegates. Joe Biden entered 2020 with less money than his top rivals
and hopes he can drive donations tonight.
Thomas Kaplan, with Biden in Iowa
9m ago
Joe Biden, in a fund-raising email, calls tonight’s caucuses “the first big step, but one of many steps to go.”
Ms. Klobuchar came here because Johnston is a Des Moines suburb that has shifted from Republican to Democratic since 2016. It’s filled with the sort of moderate Democrats she is banking on to support her.
Delivering a modified version of her stump speech, Ms. Klobuchar asked for support and pledged to rebuild the “blue wall” of Democratic states in the Midwest if she is the nominee. “We’ll even make Donald Trump pay for it,” she said.
It was a fluid scene at the caucus site, where there were fewer supporters of Mr. Biden on hand and his people were starting to get nervous. “It is a bit worrisome,” said Penny Schempp, the Biden precinct captain.
Greg Carlson, a 60-year-old retiree who worked in the wind energy industry, said he caucused for Mr. Biden in 1988 and 2008 and would do so again tonight, but if Mr. Biden wasn’t viable, he would shift to Mr. Buttigieg in the realignment. “I’m a moderate and so is he,” Mr. Carlson said.
Lara McAdams, the precinct captain for Mr. Buttigieg here, has a plan for what to do in case he doesn’t reach the 15 percent viability threshold: Don’t move.
“Our strategy is do not disperse,” she said. “I’ve told everybody to stay put.” Ms. McAdams said she’d use the 15-minute break in between the first and second alignment to convince caucusgoers backing other non-viable candidates to make Mr. Buttigieg viable if need be. But it doesn’t look like she’ll need to. The Buttigieg contingent is the largest here.
If you’re already following our results page, you may have been surprised to see some results already trickling in.If you’re already following our results page, you may have been surprised to see some results already trickling in.
That’s because, while the caucuses don’t officially start until 8 p.m. Eastern time, some satellite caucuses — some of which are overseas, in France and Scotland, for instance — have already concluded.That’s because, while the caucuses don’t officially start until 8 p.m. Eastern time, some satellite caucuses — some of which are overseas, in France and Scotland, for instance — have already concluded.
But take the results with enough grains of salt to cover a road in an Iowa blizzard. Fewer than 200 people participated in the satellite caucuses that are reporting results, and we’re expecting more than 200,000 people to caucus in total tonight.But take the results with enough grains of salt to cover a road in an Iowa blizzard. Fewer than 200 people participated in the satellite caucuses that are reporting results, and we’re expecting more than 200,000 people to caucus in total tonight.
Follow live coverage and analysis from Times reporters in Iowa and New York. WAUKEE — Roughly 100 people showed up for a Republican caucus at Waukee Elementary School, a turnout that delighted Mick Mulvaney, the White House chief of staff — here in his personal capacity, he said. “I was told to expect like 30,” he told the crowd.
Jennifer Medina, reporting from Compton, Calif. The results of the caucus were a foregone conclusion, and Jim Marwedel knew it.
1m ago Mr. Marwedel, visibly nervous, came to the front of the gymnasium to encourage his fellow caucusgoers to support Joe Walsh, who is running against Mr. Trump for the G.O.P. nomination. It was a matter of protecting the Constitution, he said, arguing that Mr. Trump’s use of executive authority could open the door for a Democratic president to abuse his or her power.
There’s one candidate saying that whatever happens in Iowa tonight does not matter all that much: Michael R. Bloomberg, who’s skipping the caucuses. “We need to stand for the Constitution, even if it means we have to stand up to our friends,” Mr. Marwedel, 50, said. “So with that, I’m thankful that you let me talk to you. I hope you can see why I’m voting for Joe Walsh, and I just encourage you as you go forward —”
Jeremy Peters, at a G.O.P. caucus in Cedar Rapids He cut himself off.
2m ago “I know you’re mostly going to support Trump,” he said, before adding plaintively: “But please understand that people like me are conservative, and we’re not trying to just badmouth the president. We’re trying to preserve the Constitution.”
It is standing room only at the Republican caucus site here, where upwards of 250 people have showed up for a vote that doesn’t appear in doubt. DUBUQUE — As a stream of people checked in to Precinct 19 in a middle school cafeteria, they were greeted by a sight from their adolescent pasts, as well as an old dilemma: Which was the cool kids’ table?
Trip Gabriel, reporting from Dubuque Volunteers for the candidates were holding campaign signs and directing voters to tables. Hannah Grove, who was sitting at a table for Mr. Sanders, said she had been behind him since 2015.
3m ago “I’m feeling pretty good about his chances tonight,” she said. “I’m pretty confident just from what I’ve been seeing on social media,” she said. “He’s been on the same message for like four years, so that’s what really calls me.”
A crowded cafeteria in Dubuque as the caucus chairwoman welcomes the crowd. One vet tells me turnout is about the same as 2016. But Adam Eikamp, who was seated at Ms. Warren’s table and said he had caucused for Mr. Sanders four years ago, said that if Ms. Warren wasn’t viable at the precinct, he would realign with Ms. Klobuchar. “What makes more sense would be to go with Sanders, but I don’t like the guy,” he said.
Over at the table for Mr. Buttigieg, Ry Myer had dispatched volunteers to canvass in recent weeks and had high hopes for his candidate. “I had a box with 197 packets to knock, and each one of those packets had about 30 to 50 doors. They all got done except eight or 10,” he said.
CEDAR RAPIDS — It is standing room only at the Republican caucus site here, where upwards of 250 people have showed up for a vote that doesn’t appear in doubt.
Judging from the abundance of Trump paraphernalia in the crowd — red hats, rhinestone pins, T-shirts — the president seems well positioned to win.
Adding some star power to the event was Betsy DeVos, the secretary of education, who received a round of warm, sustained applause after she was introduced.
“America will never be a socialist country,” Ms. DeVos said, receiving a hearty round of applause.
As the Iowa campaign trail lit up over the weekend, providing air cover for each candidate was more than $2.1 million worth of ads that ran in the state over 48 hours on Saturday and Sunday.As the Iowa campaign trail lit up over the weekend, providing air cover for each candidate was more than $2.1 million worth of ads that ran in the state over 48 hours on Saturday and Sunday.
Though Mr. Biden only spent roughly $184,000 in Iowa over the final two days — the least of the top seven candidates in the race — he was buttressed on the airwaves by a supportive super PAC, Unite the Country. Combined, more than $510,000 worth of ads supporting Mr. Biden hit the Iowa airwaves over the weekend, making the case that he was most suited to beat Mr. Trump and “calm the storm” in the country.Though Mr. Biden only spent roughly $184,000 in Iowa over the final two days — the least of the top seven candidates in the race — he was buttressed on the airwaves by a supportive super PAC, Unite the Country. Combined, more than $510,000 worth of ads supporting Mr. Biden hit the Iowa airwaves over the weekend, making the case that he was most suited to beat Mr. Trump and “calm the storm” in the country.
The biggest personal spender was Mr. Steyer at $484,000, whose nine-figure spending on the race would be making headlines if Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, wasn’t spending nearly double (Mr. Bloomberg crossed the $300 million national threshold on Monday). Mr. Steyer’s top two ads in Iowa addressed his vision for the economy and a plan to make school lunches healthier and more affordable.The biggest personal spender was Mr. Steyer at $484,000, whose nine-figure spending on the race would be making headlines if Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, wasn’t spending nearly double (Mr. Bloomberg crossed the $300 million national threshold on Monday). Mr. Steyer’s top two ads in Iowa addressed his vision for the economy and a plan to make school lunches healthier and more affordable.
Mr. Sanders spent just under $400,000; his top two ads focused on protecting social security and summarized his stump speech, which includes calls for “Medicare for all” and making billionaires pay their fair share.Mr. Sanders spent just under $400,000; his top two ads focused on protecting social security and summarized his stump speech, which includes calls for “Medicare for all” and making billionaires pay their fair share.
At $290,000, Mr. Yang had a significant presence over the Iowa airwaves and on the ground in the final weekend. Despite still being mired in low-single digits in polling, Mr. Yang flooded the airwaves, and some of his most aired ads focused on media coverage of his upstart campaign and his vision to address an economy threatened by automation.At $290,000, Mr. Yang had a significant presence over the Iowa airwaves and on the ground in the final weekend. Despite still being mired in low-single digits in polling, Mr. Yang flooded the airwaves, and some of his most aired ads focused on media coverage of his upstart campaign and his vision to address an economy threatened by automation.
Mr. Buttigieg aired $284,000, with a heavy focus on one ad featuring Iowa state senator William Dotzler touting Mr. Buttigieg’s vision. His other ad, a closing argument that calls for a generational shift and vision for the country, was on significant rotation as well. Mr. Buttigieg aired $284,000, with a heavy focus on one ad featuring the Iowa state senator William Dotzler touting Mr. Buttigieg’s vision. His other ad, a closing argument that calls for a generational shift and vision for the country, was on significant rotation as well.
Ms. Klobuchar spent $271,000, running an ad that detailed her plan for her first 100 days in office, which features 137 executive actions she plans to take early in her administration, and another ad contrasting Mr. Trump’s style with Ms. Klobuchar’s.Ms. Klobuchar spent $271,000, running an ad that detailed her plan for her first 100 days in office, which features 137 executive actions she plans to take early in her administration, and another ad contrasting Mr. Trump’s style with Ms. Klobuchar’s.
And Ms. Warren, who waited until late last year to advertise aggressively, spent roughly a quarter of a million dollars on air since Saturday. One of her top two ads carried the same message she had on placards over the weekend: Ms. Warren will unite the party. With numerous Democrats and even former Trump supporters speaking direct to camera, the ad stresses: “we can’t afford a fractured party in 2020.” And Ms. Warren, who waited until late last year to advertise aggressively, spent roughly a quarter of a million dollars on air since Saturday. One of her top two ads carried the same message she had on placards over the weekend: Ms. Warren will unite the party. With numerous Democrats and even former Trump supporters speaking direct to camera, the ad stresses: “We can’t afford a fractured party in 2020.”
Iowa Democrats are expecting a record caucus participation Monday night, with turnout potentially topping the 240,000 who caucused in 2008. Estimates of the statewide caucusgoer universe from the campaigns, party officials and Iowa elected Democrats range between 225,000 and 300,000.Iowa Democrats are expecting a record caucus participation Monday night, with turnout potentially topping the 240,000 who caucused in 2008. Estimates of the statewide caucusgoer universe from the campaigns, party officials and Iowa elected Democrats range between 225,000 and 300,000.
One of the biggest unknowns — the weather — is expected to be favorable for a large turnout: It is clear and not too cold across the state, at least not for February in Iowa. As party officials came to grips in recent weeks with the prospect of a larger turnout than any of them had anticipated, they scrambled to secure larger locations for their caucus precincts.One of the biggest unknowns — the weather — is expected to be favorable for a large turnout: It is clear and not too cold across the state, at least not for February in Iowa. As party officials came to grips in recent weeks with the prospect of a larger turnout than any of them had anticipated, they scrambled to secure larger locations for their caucus precincts.
In Dallas County, a western Des Moines suburb that is the fifth-fastest growing county in the country, Bryce Smith, the Democratic county chairman, said Monday that he expected between 45 and 50 percent of registered Democrats to participate; that’s up from about 30 percent in 2016.In Dallas County, a western Des Moines suburb that is the fifth-fastest growing county in the country, Bryce Smith, the Democratic county chairman, said Monday that he expected between 45 and 50 percent of registered Democrats to participate; that’s up from about 30 percent in 2016.
Two weeks ago, Mr. Smith had to relocate a precinct when officials at the community college that hosted it in 2016 said it could not accommodate more than 200 people.Two weeks ago, Mr. Smith had to relocate a precinct when officials at the community college that hosted it in 2016 said it could not accommodate more than 200 people.
Mr. Smith, with help from the Iowa Democratic Party, found an alternative — a nearby venue that had been reserved by one of the presidential campaigns for its own caucus night event. “It’s going to be tight, it’s going to be crowded,” Mr. Smith said. “That’s the whole point. The rooms are meant to be full.”Mr. Smith, with help from the Iowa Democratic Party, found an alternative — a nearby venue that had been reserved by one of the presidential campaigns for its own caucus night event. “It’s going to be tight, it’s going to be crowded,” Mr. Smith said. “That’s the whole point. The rooms are meant to be full.”
One of the more consequential sub-primaries of Monday’s contest is the race between Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders to become the progressive standard-bearer in the 2020 contest.One of the more consequential sub-primaries of Monday’s contest is the race between Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders to become the progressive standard-bearer in the 2020 contest.
Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren recently clashed over a private remark that she said he had made in 2018 — telling her a woman could not win the White House — and that he denied. For the most part, though, these two leading liberals have stayed away from direct confrontation.Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren recently clashed over a private remark that she said he had made in 2018 — telling her a woman could not win the White House — and that he denied. For the most part, though, these two leading liberals have stayed away from direct confrontation.
That has partly been strategic. Mr. Sanders has a solid base and Ms. Warren has sought to first grow her support without trying to take directly from him.That has partly been strategic. Mr. Sanders has a solid base and Ms. Warren has sought to first grow her support without trying to take directly from him.
But make no mistake: The path to the Democratic nomination for both candidates involves eventually consolidating their bases, if not driving the other from the race entirely.But make no mistake: The path to the Democratic nomination for both candidates involves eventually consolidating their bases, if not driving the other from the race entirely.
And the first part of that primary within the primary begins on Monday. And the first part of that primary within the primary began on Monday.
Whoever finishes first in Iowa will then have momentum — and likely a financial boost — heading into New Hampshire and beyond.Whoever finishes first in Iowa will then have momentum — and likely a financial boost — heading into New Hampshire and beyond.
One of the biggest predictors of who will finish first, second and third will be not just who votes but also how old those voters are. DES MOINES — The Trump campaign barred a Bloomberg News journalist from attending its news conference in Iowa on Monday, the first instance of a reporter being removed from a political event in the 2020 campaign.
Age has been one of the biggest divides in the 2020 race, especially between supporters of Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders. Young voters have generally swooned for Mr. Sanders and old voters have flocked to Mr. Biden. Jennifer Jacobs, a senior White House reporter at Bloomberg News, was walked out of a hotel ballroom in West Des Moines by Trump aides, according to a person familiar with the incident.
The New York Times/Siena College poll last month showed Mr. Sanders carrying a sizable 40 percent of voters under the age of 30. That was the highest percentage for any candidate for any age group. Support for the Vermont senator declined in each successively older age bracket down to single digits — 9 percent — among those who were 65 or older. The Trump campaign had previously pledged to bar Bloomberg journalists from its rallies after the outlet’s owner, Mr. Bloomberg, declared his presidential run. The Trump campaign broke from years of precedent in 2016 by barring journalists from multiple outlets — including The Washington Post and Politico — from attending events, prompting criticism from press advocates.
It was the opposite story for Mr. Biden, who captured a 32 percent plurality of those who were 65 or older. His worst group was younger voters under 30. He only carried 10 percent of such voters. In December, Trump aides criticized Bloomberg News after it announced it would not investigate Mr. Bloomberg’s rivals in the Democratic race. A spokeswoman for Bloomberg News declined to comment on Monday. Last month, its editor in chief, John Micklethwait, said “the accusation of bias couldn’t be further from the truth.”
The same split has been present in poll after poll. The Des Moines Register/CNN poll in early January showed Mr. Sanders with 38 percent of voters under 50 — and Mr. Biden with 37 percent of voters over 65. Maggie Astor, Nick Corasaniti, Reid J. Epstein, Trip Gabriel, Shane Goldmacher, Michael Grynbaum, Astead W. Herndon, Lisa Lerer, Jennifer Medina, Jonathan Martin and Jeremy W. Peters contributed reporting.
Typically, older people are more reliable voters. But caucuses are different, as our colleague Nate Cohn recently pointed out, and many of the differences in polls can be traced to different projected models of who will actually turn out on Monday.
The leaders of Iowa’s county Democrats are a group that has long been in search of a candidate to fall in love with. Since 2018, they have harbored suspicions about septuagenarian candidates and have longed for somebody fresh and new.
And now many of them think that Mr. Sanders, aged 78 and a member of Congress for three decades, is going to win the Iowa caucuses.
In conversations this weekend with 24 of 99 county chairs, 14 said they believed Mr. Sanders would place first in Monday night’s caucuses. Six predicted Mr. Biden would win, while four said they still could not say who would win.
“I suspect that Bernie will end up in first place, as the polling indicates,” said Nathan Thompson, the party chairman in Winneshiek County. “It’s consistent with what I’ve seen in northeast Iowa.”
Several acknowledged that their favorite candidate was not likely to win.
Marjie Foster, the Decatur County chairwoman, said she planned to caucus for Ms. Klobuchar but predicted she would finish behind Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg.
Terry Kocher, the Humboldt County chairman, said he expected Mr. Biden to win but was hoping that Mr. Buttigieg, for whom he will caucus, would do well.
And Rachel Bly, a co-chairwoman in Poweshiek County east of Des Moines, predicted a split decision, with one candidate taking the most delegates and another winning the most raw votes.
“Sanders has pockets of support, but won’t necessarily carry the rural areas or get delegates in as many places as some of the others,” she said. “He may win the numbers game, but not the delegate game.”
Maggie Astor, Nick Corasaniti, Reid J. Epstein, Shane Goldmacher and Jonathan Martin contributed reporting.