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Who will win the electoral college? Who will win the electoral college?
(3 days later)
CHANGING POLITICAL MAP To view this content you must have Javascript enabled and Flash player version 9 or higher installed.download Flash player Battleground states mapShifting battleground statesCHANGING POLITICAL MAP To view this content you must have Javascript enabled and Flash player version 9 or higher installed.download Flash player Battleground states mapShifting battleground states
The winner of the US presidential election is not always the candidate who wins the popular vote - the path to victory is to win a majority in the electoral college.The winner of the US presidential election is not always the candidate who wins the popular vote - the path to victory is to win a majority in the electoral college.
Each state has a certain number of electors, who elect the president - big states have more of them than little states - and the trick is to win enough states to stack up 270 electors' votes.Each state has a certain number of electors, who elect the president - big states have more of them than little states - and the trick is to win enough states to stack up 270 electors' votes.
The map to the right shows how the states have voted since 1948.The map to the right shows how the states have voted since 1948.
Below we reprint five expert projections, based partly on the latest opinion polls, which indicate how the race could end in 2008.Below we reprint five expert projections, based partly on the latest opinion polls, which indicate how the race could end in 2008.
All suggest that Democratic candidate Barack Obama will win, but this could change before election day.All suggest that Democratic candidate Barack Obama will win, but this could change before election day.
NB Where the original maps have three categories of states - solid, likely or leaning for Obama or McCain - we have amalgamated the likely and leaning categories into one, marked as "leaning".NB Where the original maps have three categories of states - solid, likely or leaning for Obama or McCain - we have amalgamated the likely and leaning categories into one, marked as "leaning".
CQ Politics: Obama 311/McCain 160Real Clear Politics: Obama 306/McCain 157Pollster.com: Obama 306/McCain 142New York Times: Obama 286/McCain 163Crystal Ball: Obama 318/McCain 165CQ Politics: Obama 311/McCain 160Real Clear Politics: Obama 306/McCain 157Pollster.com: Obama 306/McCain 142New York Times: Obama 286/McCain 163Crystal Ball: Obama 318/McCain 165
CQ POLITICS: Obama 311, McCain 160CQ POLITICS: Obama 311, McCain 160
The Congressional Quarterly has tracked both presidential and congressional races for many years.The Congressional Quarterly has tracked both presidential and congressional races for many years.
Its current calculations suggest that Barack Obama is ahead in most of the major swing states, including Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.Its current calculations suggest that Barack Obama is ahead in most of the major swing states, including Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.
It suggests that the toss-up states include not only Florida and North Carolina but also Montana, Missouri and Indiana, considered solidly Republican until very recently. It suggests that the toss-up states include not only Florida and North Carolina but also Montana, Missouri and Indiana, considered solidly Republican until very recently.
CQ PoliticsCQ Politics
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REAL CLEAR POLITICS: Obama 306, McCain 157 REAL CLEAR POLITICS: Obama 311, McCain 142
The Real Clear Politics website aggregates election polls, and rates states by averaging of the most recent polls in that state.The Real Clear Politics website aggregates election polls, and rates states by averaging of the most recent polls in that state.
It includes two more states in the toss-up category than CQ does: Nevada and North Dakota. It includes two more states in the toss-up category than CQ does: Georgia and North Dakota.
The states leaning to Obama include the key swing states of Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado. The states leaning to Obama include the key swing states of Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado.
Real Clear PoliticsReal Clear Politics
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POLLSTER: Obama 306, McCain 142 POLLSTER: Obama 311, McCain 142
Pollster.com is another site that takes polls from other sites and uses them to estimate state-by-state results. Pollster.com is another site that takes polls from other sites and uses them to estimate state-by-state results, and both tracking sites now broadly agree on the shape of the race.
It gives Senator McCain one of the lowest estimated totals of any site, largely because it now rates Georgia - once a safe Republican state - as a toss-up. What is striking in the weakening of Mr McCain's position in the South, with Georgia and North Carolina now rated as toss-ups, and Virginia rated as leaning Obama.
The site also suggests that Virginia - which voted heavily for George W Bush is now solidly Democratic. Like Real Clear Politics, it regards Montana, North Dakota and Nevada as toss-ups. name="nyt"> All of these states have voted heavily Republican in the last few decades.
Like Real Clear Politics, it has Montana, North Dakota and Indiana, as toss-ups - all states which were considered strong Republican until the last month.
Pollster.comPollster.com
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NEW YORK TIMES: Obama 286, McCain 163NEW YORK TIMES: Obama 286, McCain 163
The New York Times combines data from state polls with the judgement of its correspondents on the ground.The New York Times combines data from state polls with the judgement of its correspondents on the ground.
It regards the contest as much closer than CQ, Real Clear Politics or Pollster.com - mainly because it still puts Ohio in the toss-up category.It regards the contest as much closer than CQ, Real Clear Politics or Pollster.com - mainly because it still puts Ohio in the toss-up category.
Like some other sites, it now suggests that support for Mr McCain is weakening in some unlikely places, such as Georgia, Montana, and West Virginia. Like some other sites, it now suggests that support for Mr McCain is weakening in some unlikely places, such as Georgia, Montana, and West Virginia.
New York Times election mapNew York Times election map
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CRYSTAL BALL: Obama 318, McCain 165 CRYSTAL BALL: Obama 318, McCain 171
The website of Professor Larry Sabato, a well-known election expert from the University of Virginia, has some interesting differences from other sites.The website of Professor Larry Sabato, a well-known election expert from the University of Virginia, has some interesting differences from other sites.
Professor Sabato is one of the few who suggest that Pennsylvania might be vulnerable to the Republicans, although he rates it as "leaning" Democratic.Professor Sabato is one of the few who suggest that Pennsylvania might be vulnerable to the Republicans, although he rates it as "leaning" Democratic.
His Crystal Ball site, however, is also different in suggesting that Florida is leaning to the Democrats, rather than a toss-up. As a result his number for toss-up votes is among the lowest of any website.His Crystal Ball site, however, is also different in suggesting that Florida is leaning to the Democrats, rather than a toss-up. As a result his number for toss-up votes is among the lowest of any website.
There are only four toss-up states, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri and North Dakota, with Nevada also rated as leaning to Mr Obama.There are only four toss-up states, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri and North Dakota, with Nevada also rated as leaning to Mr Obama.
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