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| Who will win the electoral college? | Who will win the electoral college? |
| (about 16 hours later) | |
| CHANGING POLITICAL MAP To view this content you must have Javascript enabled and Flash player version 9 or higher installed.download Flash player Battleground states map class="" href="/1/hi/world/americas/7651100.stm">Shifting battleground states | |
| The winner of the US presidential election is not always the candidate who wins the popular vote - the path to victory is to win a majority in the electoral college. | The winner of the US presidential election is not always the candidate who wins the popular vote - the path to victory is to win a majority in the electoral college. |
| Each state has a certain number of electors, who elect the president - big states have more of them than little states - and the trick is to win enough states to stack up 270 electors' votes. | Each state has a certain number of electors, who elect the president - big states have more of them than little states - and the trick is to win enough states to stack up 270 electors' votes. |
| The map to the right shows how the states have voted since 1948. | The map to the right shows how the states have voted since 1948. |
| Below we reprint five expert projections, based partly on the latest opinion polls, which indicate how the race could end in 2008. | Below we reprint five expert projections, based partly on the latest opinion polls, which indicate how the race could end in 2008. |
| All suggest that Democratic candidate Barack Obama will win, but this could change before election day. | All suggest that Democratic candidate Barack Obama will win, but this could change before election day. |
| NB Where the original maps have three categories of states - solid, likely or leaning for Obama or McCain - we have amalgamated the likely and leaning categories into one, marked as "leaning". | NB Where the original maps have three categories of states - solid, likely or leaning for Obama or McCain - we have amalgamated the likely and leaning categories into one, marked as "leaning". |
| CQ Politics: Obama 311/McCain 160Real Clear Politics: Obama 306/McCain 157Pollster.com: Obama 306/McCain 142New York Times: Obama 286/McCain 163Crystal Ball: Obama 318/McCain 165 | CQ Politics: Obama 311/McCain 160Real Clear Politics: Obama 306/McCain 157Pollster.com: Obama 306/McCain 142New York Times: Obama 286/McCain 163Crystal Ball: Obama 318/McCain 165 |
| CQ POLITICS: Obama 311, McCain 160 | CQ POLITICS: Obama 311, McCain 160 |
| The Congressional Quarterly has tracked both presidential and congressional races for many years. | The Congressional Quarterly has tracked both presidential and congressional races for many years. |
| Its current calculations suggest that Barack Obama is ahead in most of the major swing states, including Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. | Its current calculations suggest that Barack Obama is ahead in most of the major swing states, including Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. |
| It suggests that the toss-up states include not only Florida and North Carolina but also Montana, Missouri and Indiana, considered solidly Republican until very recently. | It suggests that the toss-up states include not only Florida and North Carolina but also Montana, Missouri and Indiana, considered solidly Republican until very recently. |
| CQ Politics | CQ Politics |
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| REAL CLEAR POLITICS: Obama 306, McCain 157 | REAL CLEAR POLITICS: Obama 306, McCain 157 |
| The Real Clear Politics website aggregates election polls, and rates states by averaging of the most recent polls in that state. | The Real Clear Politics website aggregates election polls, and rates states by averaging of the most recent polls in that state. |
| It includes two more states in the toss-up category than CQ does: Nevada and North Dakota. | It includes two more states in the toss-up category than CQ does: Nevada and North Dakota. |
| The states leaning to Obama include the key swing states of Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado. | The states leaning to Obama include the key swing states of Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado. |
| Real Clear Politics | Real Clear Politics |
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| POLLSTER: Obama 306, McCain 142 | POLLSTER: Obama 306, McCain 142 |
| Pollster.com is another site that takes polls from other sites and uses them to estimate state-by-state results. | Pollster.com is another site that takes polls from other sites and uses them to estimate state-by-state results. |
| It gives Senator McCain one of the lowest estimated totals of any site, largely because it now rates Georgia - once a safe Republican state - as a toss-up. | It gives Senator McCain one of the lowest estimated totals of any site, largely because it now rates Georgia - once a safe Republican state - as a toss-up. |
| The site also suggests that Virginia - which voted heavily for George W Bush is now solidly Democratic. Like Real Clear Politics, it regards Montana, North Dakota and Nevada as toss-ups. | The site also suggests that Virginia - which voted heavily for George W Bush is now solidly Democratic. Like Real Clear Politics, it regards Montana, North Dakota and Nevada as toss-ups. |
| Pollster.com | Pollster.com |
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| NEW YORK TIMES: Obama 286, McCain 163 | NEW YORK TIMES: Obama 286, McCain 163 |
| The New York Times combines data from state polls with the judgement of its correspondents on the ground. | The New York Times combines data from state polls with the judgement of its correspondents on the ground. |
| It regards the contest as much closer than CQ, Real Clear Politics or Pollster.com - mainly because it still puts Ohio in the toss-up category. | It regards the contest as much closer than CQ, Real Clear Politics or Pollster.com - mainly because it still puts Ohio in the toss-up category. |
| Like some other sites, it now suggests that support for Mr McCain is weakening in some unlikely places, such as Georgia, Montana, and West Virginia. | Like some other sites, it now suggests that support for Mr McCain is weakening in some unlikely places, such as Georgia, Montana, and West Virginia. |
| New York Times election map | New York Times election map |
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| CRYSTAL BALL: Obama 318, McCain 165 | CRYSTAL BALL: Obama 318, McCain 165 |
| The website of Professor Larry Sabato, a well-known election expert from the University of Virginia, has some interesting differences from other sites. | The website of Professor Larry Sabato, a well-known election expert from the University of Virginia, has some interesting differences from other sites. |
| Professor Sabato is one of the few who suggest that Pennsylvania might be vulnerable to the Republicans, although he rates it as "leaning" Democratic. | Professor Sabato is one of the few who suggest that Pennsylvania might be vulnerable to the Republicans, although he rates it as "leaning" Democratic. |
| His Crystal Ball site, however, is also different in suggesting that Florida is leaning to the Democrats, rather than a toss-up. As a result his number for toss-up votes is among the lowest of any website. | His Crystal Ball site, however, is also different in suggesting that Florida is leaning to the Democrats, rather than a toss-up. As a result his number for toss-up votes is among the lowest of any website. |
| There are only four toss-up states, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri and North Dakota, with Nevada also rated as leaning to Mr Obama. | There are only four toss-up states, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri and North Dakota, with Nevada also rated as leaning to Mr Obama. |
| Crystal Ball | Crystal Ball |
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