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Who will win the electoral college? Who will win the electoral college?
(1 day later)
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The winner of the US presidential election is not always the candidate who wins the popular vote - the path to victory is to win a majority in the electoral college.The winner of the US presidential election is not always the candidate who wins the popular vote - the path to victory is to win a majority in the electoral college.
Each state has a certain number of electors, who elect the president - big states have more of them than little states - and the trick is to win enough states to stack up 270 electors' votes. Each state has a certain number of electors who elect the president - the number depends on the state's population - and the trick is to win enough states to stack up 270 electors' votes.
The map to the right shows how the states have voted since 1948.The map to the right shows how the states have voted since 1948.
Below we reprint five expert projections, based partly on the latest opinion polls, which indicate how the race could end in 2008.Below we reprint five expert projections, based partly on the latest opinion polls, which indicate how the race could end in 2008.
All suggest that Democratic candidate Barack Obama will win, but this could change before election day. Each website regularly updates its map. This is what the maps looked like at 1200 GMT on Saturday 1 November.
NB Where the original maps have three categories of states - solid, likely or leaning for Obama or McCain - we have amalgamated the likely and leaning categories into one, marked as "leaning". class="bodl" href="#cq">CQ Politics: Obama 311/McCain 160 class="bodl" href="#real">Real Clear Politics: Obama 311/McCain 132 class="bodl" href="#pollster">Pollster.com: Obama 311/McCain 142 class="bodl" href="#nyt">New York Times: Obama 291/McCain 163 class="bodl" href="#crystal">Crystal Ball: Obama 364/McCain 174
CQ Politics: Obama 311/McCain 160Real Clear Politics: Obama 306/McCain 157Pollster.com: Obama 306/McCain 142New York Times: Obama 286/McCain 163Crystal Ball: Obama 318/McCain 165
CQ POLITICS: Obama 311, McCain 160CQ POLITICS: Obama 311, McCain 160
The Congressional Quarterly has tracked both presidential and congressional races for many years.The Congressional Quarterly has tracked both presidential and congressional races for many years.
Its current calculations suggest that Barack Obama is ahead in most of the major swing states, including Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. Its current calculations suggest that Barack Obama is ahead in two major swing states, Ohio and Virginia.
It suggests that the toss-up states include not only Florida and North Carolina but also Montana, Missouri and Indiana, considered solidly Republican until very recently. name="real"> Its list of toss-up states includes not only Florida and North Carolina, but also Montana, Missouri and Indiana, which were considered solidly Republican until very recently.
We have slightly simplified the CQ Politics map. As well as toss-up (or, in its terminology, "no clear favourite") it has three categories of states: "safe" "favoured" and "leans". We have amalgamated the "favoured" and "leans" category. (This is why more states appear in the "leaning" category on this map than on the other four.)
CQ PoliticsCQ Politics
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REAL CLEAR POLITICS: Obama 311, McCain 142 REAL CLEAR POLITICS: Obama 311, McCain 132
The Real Clear Politics website aggregates election polls, and rates states by averaging of the most recent polls in that state. The Real Clear Politics website aggregates election polls, and rates states by averaging the most recent polls in that state.
It includes two more states in the toss-up category than CQ does: Georgia and North Dakota. The most striking feature of this map is the fact that Arizona - home state of Republican presidential candidate John McCain - now appears in the toss-up category. (This change was made on 31 October).
The states leaning to Obama include the key swing states of Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado. name="pollster"> Real Clear Politics also lists Georgia as a toss-up, in contrast with CQ, which lists both states as "favoured" for McCain.
On the other hand, Real Clear Politics has recently (30 October) moved Pennsylvania from the solid Obama category, to the leaning Obama category.
Real Clear PoliticsReal Clear Politics
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POLLSTER: Obama 311, McCain 142POLLSTER: Obama 311, McCain 142
Pollster.com is another site that takes polls from other sites and uses them to estimate state-by-state results, and both tracking sites now broadly agree on the shape of the race. Pollster.com is another site that takes polls from other sites and uses them to estimate state-by-state results. Both tracking sites now broadly agree on the shape of the race.
What is striking in the weakening of Mr McCain's position in the South, with Georgia and North Carolina now rated as toss-ups, and Virginia rated as leaning Obama. As of noon GMT on Saturday 1 November, Pollster had not followed Real Clear Politics in moving Arizona into the toss-up category, or Pennsylvania into the leaning Obama group.
All of these states have voted heavily Republican in the last few decades. It also sees New Mexico as solid for Obama, whereas Real Clear Politics classifies it as leaning towards Obama.
Like Real Clear Politics, it has Montana, North Dakota and Indiana, as toss-ups - all states which were considered strong Republican until the last month. Pollster is the only one of the five websites which sees support for the Republican candidate weakening in South Dakota.
Pollster.comPollster.com
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NEW YORK TIMES: Obama 286, McCain 163 NEW YORK TIMES: Obama 291, McCain 163
The New York Times combines data from state polls with the judgement of its correspondents on the ground.The New York Times combines data from state polls with the judgement of its correspondents on the ground.
It regards the contest as much closer than CQ, Real Clear Politics or Pollster.com - mainly because it still puts Ohio in the toss-up category.It regards the contest as much closer than CQ, Real Clear Politics or Pollster.com - mainly because it still puts Ohio in the toss-up category.
Like some other sites, it now suggests that support for Mr McCain is weakening in some unlikely places, such as Georgia, Montana, and West Virginia. Like most other sites, it now suggests that support for Mr McCain is weakening in some unlikely places, such as Georgia, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.
New York Times election mapNew York Times election map
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CRYSTAL BALL: Obama 318, McCain 171 CRYSTAL BALL: Obama 364, McCain 174
The website of Professor Larry Sabato, a well-known election expert from the University of Virginia, has some interesting differences from other sites. The website of Professor Larry Sabato, a well-known election expert from the University of Virginia, is now (since 30 October) predicting a landslide - more than 350 electoral college votes - for Barack Obama.
Professor Sabato is one of the few who suggest that Pennsylvania might be vulnerable to the Republicans, although he rates it as "leaning" Democratic. Professor Sabato no longer lists any states as toss-ups. He has also stopped referring to states as "leaning" to one candidate or the other. Instead he says the race in certain states is "close".
His Crystal Ball site, however, is also different in suggesting that Florida is leaning to the Democrats, rather than a toss-up. As a result his number for toss-up votes is among the lowest of any website. However, he lists close races in either red or blue, so we have continued to describe them as "leaning", and shaded them in the same colour as the leaning states on the other maps, to make a visual comparison easy.
There are only four toss-up states, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri and North Dakota, with Nevada also rated as leaning to Mr Obama. Perhaps because of this change of terminology, Professor Sabato is the only one of our five experts who - instead of listing Florida and Missouri as toss-ups - sees them as tending towards Barack Obama.
href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2008/president/electoratemap.php">Crystal Ball href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008103001">Crystal Ball
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