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European Union referendum: pound plunges as first results come in - live EU referendum: pound plunges as first results point to Brexit – live
(35 minutes later)
1.47am BST 2.24am BST
01:47 02:24
The Hartlepool result is in, and leave got 70% - more than expected. This is from the academic Caitlin Milazzo. We’ve got 42 results in now, out of 382.
Hartlepool - Forecast #Brexit vote 61% ,UKIP 2014 EP vote 39%, Actual vote share 70% #EURef Here are the numbers. It is the votes that count.
1.44am BST
01:44
Perhaps Lindsay Lohan has been one of those using Google. (See 1.43pm.)
#REMAIN Sorry, but #KETTERING where are you&why is this woman @BBCNews speaking on people rather than TELLING us what happens if UK LEAVES?
1.43am BST
01:43
According to the Press Association, Google says there has been a more than 250% increase in the number of searches for “what happens if we leave the EU” in the past hour, as early results indicate stronger-than-expected results for Brexit campaigners.
I tried it a moment ago. The top result I got was this.
1.41am BST
01:41
Unconfirmed results from Hartlepool huge for Leave
1.40am BST
01:40
Henry McDonald
Foyle, the constituency covering Derry city, has been the first to return a result in Northern Ireland. It was solidly pro-remain, which is hardly surprising given that it is a nationalist dominated constituency.West Tyrone, another nationalist constituency represented by Sinn Féin MP Pat Doherty, also voted for remain.
Foyle results: 32, 064 votes for Remain, 8, 905 votes for Leave, 18 votes rejected. #EURefResults
In “Paisley country”, aka North Antrim, they have voted solidly for Brexit. The constituency of Ian Paisley, the former first minister and founder of the Democratic Unionist party, has voted for leaving the EU with 18,782 votes for remain and 30,938 votes for leave.
It is a paradox that Paisley consistently topped the poll in euro elections, worked the EU system for the benefit of Ulster farmers but was a virulent Eurosceptic.
Updated
at 1.42am BST
1.40am BST
01:40
Fifteen results are in so far, out of 382.
Here are the results. It is the vote figures that count.
AreasAreas
Remain: 10 Remain: 17
Leave: 5 Leave: 25
VotesVotes
Remain: 394,282 (48.5%) Remain: 1,145,433 (46.3%)
Leave: 418,809 (51.5%) Leave: 1,326,686 (53.7%)
15 #EUref results in so far - Guardian 394,282 (48.5%) / Daily Mail 418,809 (51.5%) 42 #EUref results in so far -Glastonbury 1,145,433 (46.3%) / Last Night of the Proms 1,326,686 (53.7%)
1.38am BST 2.23am BST
01:38 02:23
John McDonnell: Labour vote seems 'two-thirds, one-third split' The Guardian’s data team have this about each side’s contribution to the overall result:
Ben Quinn Leave has a lead of 4% in the 41 areas that have reported results so far. The biggest contributor to the leave result overall has been Sunderland, with 6.3% of the leave vote. Meanwhile, the biggest contributor to remain has been Newcastle with 5.8% of the remain vote.
One after another, leading remain figures have been telling broadcasters that the result is looking close in interviews where they appear to be less optimistic than they were at about 10pm. The places to watch that are expected to report in the next hour are Castle Point, which is anticipated to lean towards leave, and Crawley in West Sussex which is a general election bellwether and the split between leave and remain should be telling. After 3am we can expect large London areas Camden and Islington to report, which are predicted to lean heavily towards remain.
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said the results were “exactly as predicted … pretty close, whichever way”, adding: “I am hoping remain will win, but I think it will be one or two percentage points either way.” 2.19am BST
He told Sky News that within the Labour vote, it appeared to be a “two-thirds, one-third split”. 02:19
Defending his party leader’s handling of Labour’s campaign, McDonnell said Jeremy Corbyn was aware that the British public was “basically Eurosceptic to a certain extent but believes remain is the best thing”. Libby Brooks
“I think you will see that as the night goes on and if it is a narrow victory for remain that will demonstrate that Jeremy is in tune with the country actually.” A Labour source’s claim that the SNP was to blame for low turnout in Scotland was swiftly thrown into doubt on Twitter by none other than the former Labour first minister Jack McConnell.
Will Straw, who has been running the remain campaign, said: “I think it is always going to be close and it’s looking close now. @bbclaurak Presumably a source who spent the campaign in London.
“The results this evening have not been any different from the projections that had those results roughly in the margin of error.” When I interviewed the current first minister and SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, earlier in the week, I put it to her that her party’s campaign has been lacklustre and certainly far less energetic than other campaigns of recent years.
1.33am BST She responded: “I don’t think it’s the case that we’re doing less than other parties but I had this conversation with UK government politicians at the time they were deciding the date of the referendum and I know there were similar concerns raised by the Welsh government.
01:33 “Up until 5 May we were absolutely focused on a Scottish election and there was always going to be a difficulty in bringing activists who exhaust themselves in an election campaign out of that immediately into another campaign with exactly the same intensity.”
The fall in the pound is the third biggest move on record, after the 2008 financial crisis and Black Wednesday when sterling left the Exchange Rate Mechanism: In terms of Scottish government campaigning, she noted that there were five working days between her being confirmed as first minster and EU referendum purdah beginning, adding: “There have been some very practical constraints placed on us.”
Pound move at number 3 with a bullet.... pic.twitter.com/FOC9x2tKTw 2.19am BST
But here’s a bit of perspective: 02:19
#GBP has fallen from $1.50 to $1.45 in just a few hours, but recall it was at $1.40 earlier this month. Not a sterling crisis - yet... Leave on course for 12-point lead, Sky predicts
Professor Michael Thrasher, the Sky News number cruncher, says that as things stand it looks as if leave is heading for an 12-point lead.
Prof Michael Thrasher preliminary forecast as things stand for @skynews:Leave 56%Remain 44%
2.16am BST
02:16
Arron Banks, the Leave.EU co-founded, thinks leave has won.
Aaron Banks says he thinks they've won
2.15am BST
02:15
Randeep Ramesh
Bristol turnout was 73.2%, with 228,678 people voting, and the city is expecting a declaration earlier than 6am.
2.15am BST
02:15
Sir Vince Cable, the former Lib Dem business secretary, has told BBC that if leave win, David Cameron’s days as prime minister will be over.
(He may well be right. If so, the Robert Syms letter - see 10.43pm - may well turn out to be a waste of time.)
2.13am BST
02:13
Pound and shares sharply lower as Leave tipped to win
The pound is slumping now, down 5.5% at $1.408 as bookies now put Leave as the favourite to win.
And the FTSE 100 futures are now down more than 4%.
*FTSE 100 INDEX FUTURES DROP 4.3%
IG clients now see #Leave with a slender lead. #Brexit #EUref
LEAVE IS NOW A FAVORITE TO WINLADBROKES: 5/4 REMAIN; 4/7 LEAVE
With #Sterling taking another leg down, @FTSE futures are down 5% and #Dow down 2%.Some bookies have shifted #brexit odds in favor of #Leave
My colleague Jill Treanor is at currency dealer WorldFirst. She reports:
“We forecast on the basis of a Leave vote that we could see sterling fall 7% on the day. We’re on track for that,” said Jeremy Cook at World First. Sterling has fallen fast since the BBC said that Labour had warned there would be Leave vote. After leaping to $1.50 when the polls closed, the so-called cable rate slipped 4% when the Sunderland vote came in but steadied at 2% lower until the warning from the BBC. Then sterling fell to $1.40 or so - down more than 5% - by around 2am.
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.35am BST at 2.15am BST
1.33am BST 2.12am BST
01:33 02:12
Chris Bryant says 'tosspot' Miliband to blame for state Labour is in Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader and Scottish first minister, is on the BBC. Asked about the way Labour sources are briefing against the SNP (see 1.56am), he said that in Scotland remain was winning in the industrial areas where the SNP are dominant by 60/40. But in England, where Labour hold seats like that, leave is winning, he said. If Labour wanted to work out who to blame, they should look to themselves, he said.
Labour figures are also attacking each other. Talking to guests at the Stronger In referendum party, Chris Bryant, the shadow leader of the Commons, denounced Ed Miliband when he saw the former party leader being interviewed on TV. He said: 2.12am BST
I might go and punch him because he’s a tosspot and he left the party in the state it’s in. 02:12
1.31am BST
01:31
Henry McDonaldHenry McDonald
The turnout figures for the four Belfast constituencies are out and they show that unionist majority areas have voted significantly more than republican districts. Two neighbouring unionist constituencies have voted in opposite directions to each other.
In republican West Belfast – a Sinn Féin stronghold – the turnout was 48%, an historic low compared to successive general and assembly elections. By contrast, the turnout in loyalist East Belfast was 66%, as it was in the more liberal South Belfast constituency. In North Belfast, where there is a sizeable republican and nationalist population, the turnout was 57%. North Down voters backed remain, albeit with just a 2,000 majority while next door in Strangford people opted for Brexit. The former constituency maybe the only pro-union (with the UK that is!) that is also in favour of staying in the EU.
This reflects a trend across Northern Ireland where unionists, especially working-class loyalists, appear more animated about EU-related issues – most notably on immigration – compared to working-class republicans and nationalists. Lee Reynolds, of the leave campaign, was clearly correct in terms of his analysis of working-class loyalism and this referendum: they came out to vote in unprecedented numbers. Overall in Northern Ireland, it is safe to say that the region will have a majority in favour for remain as the combined votes of nationalists, the liberal centre and soft unionists, like those in North Down, should be enough to give the region a remain majority.
1.30am BST North Down results: 23,131 votes for Remain, 21,046 votes for Leave, 34 votes rejected. #EURefResults
01:30 Strangford results: 18,727 votes for Remain, 23,383 votes for Leave, 13 votes rejected. #EURefResults
Andrew Sparrow 2.07am BST
You can always tell who is losing on an election night - it’s the side where they start blaming each other. Earlier, when it looked good for remain, we saw Vote Leave have a go at Nigel Farage. 02:07
But now the recriminations are breaking out on the remain side, where Labour is blaming the government. This is from a party source. Steven Morris
A significant minority of Labour voters have undoubtedly voted for Leave. After David Cameron and the Tories made this a referendum on them and their leadership, many of the areas hardest hit by this government’s unfair policies like Sunderland have taken the opportunity this referendum as a means to kick a Conservative government that is out of touch. Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has said the leave vote – which is looking very strong in Wales – was an attack on the establishment. She also said that if the UK does leave the EU it could provide opportunities for Plaid, whose ultimate aim is independence for Wales.
This was a vote against a government that has failed to rebalance the economy, and has failed to deliver the Northern Powerhouse that it keeps promising. Speaking at the count in Cardiff, she told the Guardian: “It’s looking as though those areas where there are greatest areas of deprivation and poverty, those areas which are receiving the most amount of money from EU funds are the areas where people are voting in the greatest number to leave.
Our private polling has consistently shown from the beginning of the campaign that about two thirds of Labour voters supported remain and we expect that to be borne out in the results. A clear majority of Labour voters support remaining in Europe, unlike Tory voters. “I’m of the view it’s austerity that is at the root of the problem here. People want change and they’ve seen this as an opportunity to get the change they want.”
And this is from the Sunday Times’s Tim Shipman. Asked if a leave vote would boost Plaid’s aim of independence, Wood said it would provide an opportunity for the nationalists. “I’ve said all along it was in Wales’s best interest to stay in the European Union but you must always look for opportunities.”
Remain camp already eating each other. Angela Eagle slagging off govt. You can bet Dave will blame Labour if this goes wrong.
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.36am BST at 2.16am BST
1.26am BST 2.05am BST
01:26 02:05
This is from the Guardian’s diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour: Leave is first to pass one million votes
Hartlepool ex seat of Lord Mandelson & key Remain figure, gone 70 to 30 for Leave. Project Fear cut no ice. Claire Phipps
The leave side was the first to break through the one-million vote mark – though remain was not far behind.
With 34 authorities declared:
Some 16.8m votes will be needed overall to secure victory, so it is still very early. But leave will be cheered by that symbolic moment.
Related: EU referendum result: what we know so far
Updated
at 2.10am BST
2.05am BST
02:05
Leave have now got more than 1m votes, the BBC is reporting.
2.05am BST
02:05
Here are some more results.
Brentwood
Remain 19,077 (40.85%) Leave 27,627 (59.15%) Leave maj 8,550 (18.31%) Electorate 58,777; Turnout 46,704 (79.46%)
Flintshire
Remain 37,867 (43.63%) Leave 48,930 (56.37%) Leave maj 11,063 (12.75%) Electorate 115,954; Turnout 86,797 (74.85%)
Middlesbrough
Remain 21,181 (34.52%) Leave 40,177 (65.48%) Leave maj 18,996 (30.96%) Electorate 94,610; Turnout 61,358 (64.85%)
Weymouth and Portland
Remain 14,903 (38.96%) Leave 23,352 (61.04%) Leave maj 8,449 (22.09%) Electorate 50,441; Turnout 38,255 (75.84%)
Inverclyde
Remain 24,688 (63.80%) Leave 14,010 (36.20%) Remain maj 10,678 (27.59%) Electorate 58,624; Turnout 38,698 (66.01%)
Renfrewshire
Remain 57,119 (64.81%) Leave 31,010 (35.19%) Remain maj 26,109 (29.63%) Electorate 127,290; Turnout 88,129 (69.23%)
Midlothian
Remain 28,217 (62.06%) Leave 17,251 (37.94%) Remain maj 10,966 (24.12%) Electorate 66,757; Turnout 45,468 (68.11%)
Merthyr Tydfil
Remain 12,574 (43.56%) Leave 16,291 (56.44%) Leave maj 3,717 (12.88%) Electorate 42,854; Turnout 28,865 (67.36%)
Stockton-on-Tees
Remain 38,433 (38.27%) Leave 61,982 (61.73%) Leave maj 23,549 (23.45%) Electorate 141,486; Turnout 100,415 (70.97%)