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EU referendum live: pound plunges as first results come in European Union referendum: pound plunges as first results come in - live
(35 minutes later)
1.14am BST 1.47am BST
01:14 01:47
The University of East Anglia is running a referendum live blog. They have been crunching the numbers and, on the basis of the first five results, they are forecasting a narrow win for Leave. The Hartlepool result is in, and leave got 70% - more than expected. This is from the academic Caitlin Milazzo.
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.48 Hartlepool - Forecast #Brexit vote 61% ,UKIP 2014 EP vote 39%, Actual vote share 70% #EURef
(5 of 382 areas reporting.) 1.44am BST
Predicted vote share for Remain: 49.8 percent. 01:44
(90% prediction interval: 42.7 to 56.8 percent) Perhaps Lindsay Lohan has been one of those using Google. (See 1.43pm.)
1.11am BST #REMAIN Sorry, but #KETTERING where are you&why is this woman @BBCNews speaking on people rather than TELLING us what happens if UK LEAVES?
01:11 1.43am BST
With surprises in Newcastle and Sunderland, the Guardian’s Anushka Asthana summarises the EU referendum results night so far. 01:43
1.11am BST According to the Press Association, Google says there has been a more than 250% increase in the number of searches for “what happens if we leave the EU” in the past hour, as early results indicate stronger-than-expected results for Brexit campaigners.
01:11 I tried it a moment ago. The top result I got was this.
This is from Caitlin Milazzo, an academic and Ukip expert. 1.41am BST
Kettering - Forecast #Brexit vote 59%, UKIP 2014 EP vote 36%, Actual vote share 61% #EURef 01:41
1.09am BST Unconfirmed results from Hartlepool huge for Leave
01:09 1.40am BST
Prof John Curtice has told the BBC that turnout in London seems to be 2 or 3% lower than expected, based on figures in so far. That might be the result of terrible rain we had in the capital. If so, this is bad for remain, which counts London as a stronghold. 01:40
Updated
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1.07am BST
01:07
Stock markets have started to open in Asia and in Japan the Nikkei 225 is currently up 0.65%.
But the UK futures are now suggesting the FTSE 100 will open around 1.9% lower.
1.06am BST
01:06
Henry McDonaldHenry McDonald
Meanwhile, the count continues in Belfast, where Alasdair McDonnell MP (seated) is not looking as confident after the Sunderland result as he was earlier. Foyle, the constituency covering Derry city, has been the first to return a result in Northern Ireland. It was solidly pro-remain, which is hardly surprising given that it is a nationalist dominated constituency.West Tyrone, another nationalist constituency represented by Sinn Féin MP Pat Doherty, also voted for remain.
1.05am BST Foyle results: 32, 064 votes for Remain, 8, 905 votes for Leave, 18 votes rejected. #EURefResults
01:05 In “Paisley country”, aka North Antrim, they have voted solidly for Brexit. The constituency of Ian Paisley, the former first minister and founder of the Democratic Unionist party, has voted for leaving the EU with 18,782 votes for remain and 30,938 votes for leave.
Eight results are in so far, out of 382. It is a paradox that Paisley consistently topped the poll in euro elections, worked the EU system for the benefit of Ulster farmers but was a virulent Eurosceptic.
Here are the figures. It is the vote figures that count. Updated
at 1.42am BST
1.40am BST
01:40
Fifteen results are in so far, out of 382.
Here are the results. It is the vote figures that count.
AreasAreas
Remain: 5 Remain: 10
Leave: 3 Leave: 5
VotesVotes
Remain: 227,726 (46.9%) Remain: 394,282 (48.5%)
Leave: 257,816 (53.1%) Leave: 418,809 (51.5%)
Eight #EUref results in so far - Bob Geldof 227,726 (46.9%) / Nigel Farage 257,816 (53.1%) 15 #EUref results in so far - Guardian 394,282 (48.5%) / Daily Mail 418,809 (51.5%)
1.38am BST
01:38
John McDonnell: Labour vote seems 'two-thirds, one-third split'
Ben Quinn
One after another, leading remain figures have been telling broadcasters that the result is looking close in interviews where they appear to be less optimistic than they were at about 10pm.
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said the results were “exactly as predicted … pretty close, whichever way”, adding: “I am hoping remain will win, but I think it will be one or two percentage points either way.”
He told Sky News that within the Labour vote, it appeared to be a “two-thirds, one-third split”.
Defending his party leader’s handling of Labour’s campaign, McDonnell said Jeremy Corbyn was aware that the British public was “basically Eurosceptic to a certain extent but believes remain is the best thing”.
“I think you will see that as the night goes on and if it is a narrow victory for remain that will demonstrate that Jeremy is in tune with the country actually.”
Will Straw, who has been running the remain campaign, said: “I think it is always going to be close and it’s looking close now.
“The results this evening have not been any different from the projections that had those results roughly in the margin of error.”
1.33am BST
01:33
The fall in the pound is the third biggest move on record, after the 2008 financial crisis and Black Wednesday when sterling left the Exchange Rate Mechanism:
Pound move at number 3 with a bullet.... pic.twitter.com/FOC9x2tKTw
But here’s a bit of perspective:
#GBP has fallen from $1.50 to $1.45 in just a few hours, but recall it was at $1.40 earlier this month. Not a sterling crisis - yet...
UpdatedUpdated
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1.03am BST 1.33am BST
01:03 01:33
Eddie Izzard has joined supporters of the Stronger In campaign as they gather to wait for the result of the EU referendum at the Royal Festival Hall. Chris Bryant says 'tosspot' Miliband to blame for state Labour is in
1.01am BST Labour figures are also attacking each other. Talking to guests at the Stronger In referendum party, Chris Bryant, the shadow leader of the Commons, denounced Ed Miliband when he saw the former party leader being interviewed on TV. He said:
01:01 I might go and punch him because he’s a tosspot and he left the party in the state it’s in.
Richard Adams 1.31am BST
Richard Adams has sent this from the count at Oxford town hall where the turnout has been announced as 70,411 out of 97,331 on the electoral roll high at 72%. 01:31
The whole thing seems to have been too much for one Labour councillor, who earlier was involved in an altercation with police and then removed. Henry McDonald
The turnout figures for the four Belfast constituencies are out and they show that unionist majority areas have voted significantly more than republican districts.
In republican West Belfast – a Sinn Féin stronghold – the turnout was 48%, an historic low compared to successive general and assembly elections. By contrast, the turnout in loyalist East Belfast was 66%, as it was in the more liberal South Belfast constituency. In North Belfast, where there is a sizeable republican and nationalist population, the turnout was 57%.
This reflects a trend across Northern Ireland where unionists, especially working-class loyalists, appear more animated about EU-related issues – most notably on immigration – compared to working-class republicans and nationalists. Lee Reynolds, of the leave campaign, was clearly correct in terms of his analysis of working-class loyalism and this referendum: they came out to vote in unprecedented numbers.
1.30am BST
01:30
Andrew Sparrow
You can always tell who is losing on an election night - it’s the side where they start blaming each other. Earlier, when it looked good for remain, we saw Vote Leave have a go at Nigel Farage.
But now the recriminations are breaking out on the remain side, where Labour is blaming the government. This is from a party source.
A significant minority of Labour voters have undoubtedly voted for Leave. After David Cameron and the Tories made this a referendum on them and their leadership, many of the areas hardest hit by this government’s unfair policies like Sunderland have taken the opportunity this referendum as a means to kick a Conservative government that is out of touch.
This was a vote against a government that has failed to rebalance the economy, and has failed to deliver the Northern Powerhouse that it keeps promising.
Our private polling has consistently shown from the beginning of the campaign that about two thirds of Labour voters supported remain and we expect that to be borne out in the results. A clear majority of Labour voters support remaining in Europe, unlike Tory voters.
And this is from the Sunday Times’s Tim Shipman.
Remain camp already eating each other. Angela Eagle slagging off govt. You can bet Dave will blame Labour if this goes wrong.
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.02am BST at 1.36am BST
1.01am BST 1.26am BST
01:01 01:26
With 8 results in out of 382 in the EU referendum, turnout is 69.7%. This is from the Guardian’s diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour:
1.00am BST Hartlepool ex seat of Lord Mandelson & key Remain figure, gone 70 to 30 for Leave. Project Fear cut no ice.
01:00
Michael Thrasher, the psephologist who is number crunching for Sky News, has just said the eight results in so far suggest it is going to be very close.
12.58am BST
00:58
The Swindon result has been announced.
Remain: 51,220 (45.3%)
Leave: 61,745 (54.7%)
This looks like a hefty leave win but, according to the Hanretty data, leave should have been doing slightly better here.
Updated
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12.55am BST
00:55
12.55am BST
00:55
Arron Banks, the co-founder of Leave.EU, has described the Sunderland result (see 12.20am) as a “wholesale rejection of the Labour party by its voters.”
12.54am BST
00:54
In Wandsworth, Mark Tran reports a turnout of 71.98% – or 158,018 out of 219,521 voters.