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EU referendum: pound plunges as first results point to Brexit – live EU referendum: pound plunges after strong Brexit vote leaves UK on knife-edge – live
(35 minutes later)
2.24am BST 2.59am BST
02:24 02:59
We’ve got 42 results in now, out of 382. Henry McDonald has sent this from Belfast:
Here are the numbers. It is the votes that count. Nathan Anderson is a 26-year-old MA politics student at Queen’s University Belfast and a Democratic Unionist councillor.
Unlike a majority of his contemporaries in his age group, he is strongly in favour of Brexit.He said: “As part of my MA I have been studying the EU and it has made me more Eurosceptical. The EU commission is wholly unelected and it makes the laws. That is why I will be delighted if its a Brexit result today.”
2.55am BST
02:55
The Guardian’s Dan Milmo talks us through the volatility in the financial markets with the results coming in for the European Union referendum.
2.54am BST
02:54
John Mann, one of the few Labour MPs to vote for Brexit, has just told the BBC that Labour voters have “decisively voted to leave the European Union”.
2.53am BST
02:53
We’ve had 84 results in now, and remain are back on the lead - but only just.
Here are the figures. The vote ones are the ones that count.
AreasAreas
Remain: 17 Remain: 34
Leave: 25 Leave: 50
VotesVotes
Remain: 1,145,433 (46.3%) Remain: 2,877,575 (50.01%)
Leave: 1,326,686 (53.7%) Leave: 2,876,697 (49.99%)
42 #EUref results in so far -Glastonbury 1,145,433 (46.3%) / Last Night of the Proms 1,326,686 (53.7%) 84 #EUref results in - Experts 2,877,575 (50.01%) / Bloke in the pub 2,876,697 (49.99%)
2.23am BST 2.51am BST
02:23 02:51
The Guardian’s data team have this about each side’s contribution to the overall result: Mark Tran
Leave has a lead of 4% in the 41 areas that have reported results so far. The biggest contributor to the leave result overall has been Sunderland, with 6.3% of the leave vote. Meanwhile, the biggest contributor to remain has been Newcastle with 5.8% of the remain vote. Wandsworth has voted for remain by a thumping 75-25 majority on a 72% turnout. There were 118,463 votes for remain and 39,421 for leave.
The places to watch that are expected to report in the next hour are Castle Point, which is anticipated to lean towards leave, and Crawley in West Sussex which is a general election bellwether and the split between leave and remain should be telling. After 3am we can expect large London areas Camden and Islington to report, which are predicted to lean heavily towards remain. The borough was a remain stronghold so victory was assured. The only issue was the margin of victory. After the disappointments of Sunderland and Newcastle, Wandsworth will come as a fillip for the remain camp, although the result can only reinforce the impression of a deep divisions in the country.
2.19am BST Wandsworth result now in; 118,463 remain, 39,421 leave #EURefResults pic.twitter.com/AuYJ2FLTiG
02:19 Jane Ellison, the Conservative MP for Battersea, was delighted but expressed concern over what seemed to be a developing north-south divide.
Libby Brooks She said: “Whatever the outcome, it is obvious there are very different concerns and where we stand in the world, and we need to address that. All you can do is do your best in your own patch.”
A Labour source’s claim that the SNP was to blame for low turnout in Scotland was swiftly thrown into doubt on Twitter by none other than the former Labour first minister Jack McConnell. During the count, Justine Greening, the Conservative MP for Putney and international development secretary, said the gap between remain and leave was bigger than she had anticipated.
@bbclaurak Presumably a source who spent the campaign in London. “That seems much more categorical than I expected,” she told the Guardian. It’s a combination of London being more international and the immigration debate really jarring [with] people.”
When I interviewed the current first minister and SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, earlier in the week, I put it to her that her party’s campaign has been lacklustre and certainly far less energetic than other campaigns of recent years. On whether the death of Labour MP Jo Cox had been a factor, Greening said: “It made people sit up and think and the vote was their first chance people had to show how they felt.”
She responded: “I don’t think it’s the case that we’re doing less than other parties but I had this conversation with UK government politicians at the time they were deciding the date of the referendum and I know there were similar concerns raised by the Welsh government. Rosena Allin­-Khan, the newly Labour MP for Tooting, also campaigned for remain in a cross-party effort. She said she found some confusion among remain voters because the government had been so “woefully divided”.
“Up until 5 May we were absolutely focused on a Scottish election and there was always going to be a difficulty in bringing activists who exhaust themselves in an election campaign out of that immediately into another campaign with exactly the same intensity.” 2.49am BST
In terms of Scottish government campaigning, she noted that there were five working days between her being confirmed as first minster and EU referendum purdah beginning, adding: “There have been some very practical constraints placed on us.” 02:49
2.19am BST Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, said at the count in Cardiff that the results show David Cameron was wrong to hold the referendum so soon after the Welsh elections.
02:19 We warned the prime minister very early on that the date was too close to the Welsh and Scottish elections and that it would cause problems. In Wales we saw the election of a large number of Ukip AMs with all of this as background noise. If it the result ends up being leave for Wales, it exonerates our position on the issue of timing.
Leave on course for 12-point lead, Sky predicts 2.47am BST
Professor Michael Thrasher, the Sky News number cruncher, says that as things stand it looks as if leave is heading for an 12-point lead. 02:47
Prof Michael Thrasher preliminary forecast as things stand for @skynews:Leave 56%Remain 44% The Ukip MEP Paul Nuttall has told Sky News that Ukip will do well whatever happens.
2.16am BST Win or lose this referendum Ukip is in a very, very good position. If we win this referendum then Ukip should get the plaudits ...
02:16 If we lose, and it is only going to be very tight, the SNP have done quite well out of losing a tight referendum. Anger is a very powerful emotion in politics and people, I think, will come to Ukip in their droves.
Arron Banks, the Leave.EU co-founded, thinks leave has won. 2.46am BST
Aaron Banks says he thinks they've won 02:46
2.15am BST Justin McCurry
02:15 Here’s more on the Asian markets:
Randeep Ramesh After opening slightly up, the Nikkei benchmark index in Tokyo fell by 2.9% mid-morning as early referendum results filtered through from the UK. The Nikkei has since mounted a steady recovery, but there is little doubt that investors are nervous about the possibility of a Brexit win and the instability that would bring to the British and European economies. In a volatile start to trading that is expected to continue for most of the day, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 1.3%, while Australia fell 2% and South Korea 1.2%.
Bristol turnout was 73.2%, with 228,678 people voting, and the city is expecting a declaration earlier than 6am. The Hang Seng is currently down 0.48%.
2.15am BST 2.45am BST
02:15 02:45
Sir Vince Cable, the former Lib Dem business secretary, has told BBC that if leave win, David Cameron’s days as prime minister will be over. John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has told BBC that he expects the Bank of England to intervene in the morning to protect sterling.
(He may well be right. If so, the Robert Syms letter - see 10.43pm - may well turn out to be a waste of time.) That is exactly the sort of shock we were expecting so I would expect the Bank of England to intervene in the morning.
2.13am BST Chancellors and shadow chancellors can’t comment on sterling but what we can do is have a mature approach to this and say whatever the outcome, we will negotiate the best deal we possibly can with regard to our trading partners in Europe and in that way we might give some assurances to the market.
02:13
Pound and shares sharply lower as Leave tipped to win
The pound is slumping now, down 5.5% at $1.408 as bookies now put Leave as the favourite to win.
And the FTSE 100 futures are now down more than 4%.
*FTSE 100 INDEX FUTURES DROP 4.3%
IG clients now see #Leave with a slender lead. #Brexit #EUref
LEAVE IS NOW A FAVORITE TO WINLADBROKES: 5/4 REMAIN; 4/7 LEAVE
With #Sterling taking another leg down, @FTSE futures are down 5% and #Dow down 2%.Some bookies have shifted #brexit odds in favor of #Leave
My colleague Jill Treanor is at currency dealer WorldFirst. She reports:
“We forecast on the basis of a Leave vote that we could see sterling fall 7% on the day. We’re on track for that,” said Jeremy Cook at World First. Sterling has fallen fast since the BBC said that Labour had warned there would be Leave vote. After leaping to $1.50 when the polls closed, the so-called cable rate slipped 4% when the Sunderland vote came in but steadied at 2% lower until the warning from the BBC. Then sterling fell to $1.40 or so - down more than 5% - by around 2am.
UpdatedUpdated
at 2.15am BST at 2.56am BST
2.12am BST 2.45am BST
02:12 02:45
Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader and Scottish first minister, is on the BBC. Asked about the way Labour sources are briefing against the SNP (see 1.56am), he said that in Scotland remain was winning in the industrial areas where the SNP are dominant by 60/40. But in England, where Labour hold seats like that, leave is winning, he said. If Labour wanted to work out who to blame, they should look to themselves, he said. Richard Adams
2.12am BST As expected, Oxford came in powerfully for remain with a 71% vote – nearly 50,000 out of 70,000 in total.
02:12 Remain benefited by running up huge votes in the wealthier areas like Summertown, outweighing a closer result in Labour-voting working-class areas such as Rose Hill and Blackbird Leys.
Henry McDonald Andrew Smith, the veteran Labour MP for Oxford East, which includes Blackbird Leys, said it was a “great result and reflected the open nature of our community and links with Europe”. But he added: “It’s been clear to me that there would be a strong working-class vote for leave.”
Two neighbouring unionist constituencies have voted in opposite directions to each other. Why? “For many people their experience of globalisation hasn’t been positive and [they] viewed our involvement in Europe as part of that,” Smith said.
North Down voters backed remain, albeit with just a 2,000 majority while next door in Strangford people opted for Brexit. The former constituency maybe the only pro-union (with the UK that is!) that is also in favour of staying in the EU. Results are still awaited for the rest of Oxfordshire, with very high turnouts of over 80% in South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse counties.
Overall in Northern Ireland, it is safe to say that the region will have a majority in favour for remain as the combined votes of nationalists, the liberal centre and soft unionists, like those in North Down, should be enough to give the region a remain majority. 2.43am BST
North Down results: 23,131 votes for Remain, 21,046 votes for Leave, 34 votes rejected. #EURefResults 02:43
Strangford results: 18,727 votes for Remain, 23,383 votes for Leave, 13 votes rejected. #EURefResults This is from the Independent’s John Rentoul.
2.07am BST Barking & Dagenham Leave by 24 pts vs 8 pts expected; Hammersmith & Fulham Remain by 40 pts, 30 pts expected if 50-50 nationally
02:07 2.42am BST
Steven Morris 02:42
Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has said the leave vote – which is looking very strong in Wales – was an attack on the establishment. She also said that if the UK does leave the EU it could provide opportunities for Plaid, whose ultimate aim is independence for Wales. And this is from the academic Matthew Goodwin.
Speaking at the count in Cardiff, she told the Guardian: “It’s looking as though those areas where there are greatest areas of deprivation and poverty, those areas which are receiving the most amount of money from EU funds are the areas where people are voting in the greatest number to leave. On average we find that the Leave vote is up by about an average of 3 points on a 50-50 model #euref (so far!)
“I’m of the view it’s austerity that is at the root of the problem here. People want change and they’ve seen this as an opportunity to get the change they want.” 2.42am BST
Asked if a leave vote would boost Plaid’s aim of independence, Wood said it would provide an opportunity for the nationalists. “I’ve said all along it was in Wales’s best interest to stay in the European Union but you must always look for opportunities.” 02:42
Updated Josh Halliday
at 2.16am BST We’re just over halfway through the north-east declarations and the verdict is clear: leave has won comfortably in this region.
2.05am BST The Brexiters were always expected to do well in this industrial heartland of shipping, mining and steel – but the sheer scale of the leave vote has stunned experts and activists.
02:05 Of the eight north-east areas to have declared so far, seven have voted heavily to leave the EU. In Hartlepool, the seaside town that saw a Ukip surge at the recent local elections, 69.5% voted to leave.
Leave is first to pass one million votes There are a further four areas to declare here – including Northumberland, Durham and Gateshead – but they are expected to be closer run than those that have already declared.
Claire Phipps North Tyneside is 53.4% LEAVEThat's seven out of eight North East local authorities to vote Leave. Four still to declare. #EURef
The leave side was the first to break through the one-million vote mark – though remain was not far behind. 2.40am BST
With 34 authorities declared: 02:40
Some 16.8m votes will be needed overall to secure victory, so it is still very early. But leave will be cheered by that symbolic moment. This is from the Sunday Times’s Tim Shipman.
Related: EU referendum result: what we know so far Vote Leave source: at current rate they're on course for 150,000 fewer votes in London than hoped. But will more than cover that elsewhere.
Updated 2.39am BST
at 2.10am BST 02:39
2.05am BST The academic Rob Ford has more on the Wandsworth result.
02:05 Wandsworth 75% remain - that's 9 points above what Remain wld need on 50-50 split, and turnout strong there too
Leave have now got more than 1m votes, the BBC is reporting. This vote suggests a very deeply divided country. London (& Scotland, other cities?) very different to everywhere else
2.05am BST
02:05
Here are some more results.
Brentwood
Remain 19,077 (40.85%) Leave 27,627 (59.15%) Leave maj 8,550 (18.31%) Electorate 58,777; Turnout 46,704 (79.46%)
Flintshire
Remain 37,867 (43.63%) Leave 48,930 (56.37%) Leave maj 11,063 (12.75%) Electorate 115,954; Turnout 86,797 (74.85%)
Middlesbrough
Remain 21,181 (34.52%) Leave 40,177 (65.48%) Leave maj 18,996 (30.96%) Electorate 94,610; Turnout 61,358 (64.85%)
Weymouth and Portland
Remain 14,903 (38.96%) Leave 23,352 (61.04%) Leave maj 8,449 (22.09%) Electorate 50,441; Turnout 38,255 (75.84%)
Inverclyde
Remain 24,688 (63.80%) Leave 14,010 (36.20%) Remain maj 10,678 (27.59%) Electorate 58,624; Turnout 38,698 (66.01%)
Renfrewshire
Remain 57,119 (64.81%) Leave 31,010 (35.19%) Remain maj 26,109 (29.63%) Electorate 127,290; Turnout 88,129 (69.23%)
Midlothian
Remain 28,217 (62.06%) Leave 17,251 (37.94%) Remain maj 10,966 (24.12%) Electorate 66,757; Turnout 45,468 (68.11%)
Merthyr Tydfil
Remain 12,574 (43.56%) Leave 16,291 (56.44%) Leave maj 3,717 (12.88%) Electorate 42,854; Turnout 28,865 (67.36%)
Stockton-on-Tees
Remain 38,433 (38.27%) Leave 61,982 (61.73%) Leave maj 23,549 (23.45%) Electorate 141,486; Turnout 100,415 (70.97%)