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EU referendum results: pound plunges as first results come in – live
EU referendum live: pound plunges as first results come in
(35 minutes later)
12.37am BST
1.14am BST
00:37
01:14
The University of East Anglia is running a referendum live blog. They have been crunching the numbers and, on the basis of the first five results, they are forecasting a narrow win for Leave.
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.48
(5 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 49.8 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 42.7 to 56.8 percent)
1.11am BST
01:11
With surprises in Newcastle and Sunderland, the Guardian’s Anushka Asthana summarises the EU referendum results night so far.
1.11am BST
01:11
This is from Caitlin Milazzo, an academic and Ukip expert.
Kettering - Forecast #Brexit vote 59%, UKIP 2014 EP vote 36%, Actual vote share 61% #EURef
1.09am BST
01:09
Prof John Curtice has told the BBC that turnout in London seems to be 2 or 3% lower than expected, based on figures in so far. That might be the result of terrible rain we had in the capital. If so, this is bad for remain, which counts London as a stronghold.
Updated
at 1.12am BST
1.07am BST
01:07
Stock markets have started to open in Asia and in Japan the Nikkei 225 is currently up 0.65%.
But the UK futures are now suggesting the FTSE 100 will open around 1.9% lower.
1.06am BST
01:06
Henry McDonald
Henry McDonald
The leave campaign’s regional coordinator in Northern Ireland is holding on to the hope that working-class voters across the UK will turn around the Brexit camp’s fortunes. Lee Reynolds, a former Democratic Unionist party councillor, said there had been an unprecedented turnout in Ulster loyalist working-class areas.
Meanwhile, the count continues in Belfast, where Alasdair McDonnell MP (seated) is not looking as confident after the Sunderland result as he was earlier.
“They are not voting in any large numbers for remain,” Reynolds said. “If the loyalist working class are voting like never before then what are their counterparts doing in England and like them, the English working class is for leave. People have to came calm down and let the votes be counted. I think the odds are even in terms of which side is going to be on the 52-48 split in the vote. It is far from over.”
1.05am BST
12.36am BST
01:05
00:36
Eight results are in so far, out of 382.
Five results are in (out of 382).
Here are the figures. It is the vote figures that count.
Here are the figures. It is the vote figures that count.
Areas
Areas
Remain: 4
Remain: 5
Leave: 1
Leave: 3
Votes
Votes
Remain: 158,536 (49.5%)
Remain: 227,726 (46.9%)
Leave: 161,744 (50.5%)
Leave: 257,816 (53.1%)
12.34am BST
Eight #EUref results in so far - Bob Geldof 227,726 (46.9%) / Nigel Farage 257,816 (53.1%)
00:34
Ben Quinn
Arron Banks, the millionaire backer of Ukip and co-founder of the Leave.EU campaign, says he is “feeling quite confident, strangely.”
He dismissed the significance of the result from Newcastle after it declared for remain, telling Sky News: Newcastle … That’s a metropolitan Labour city. It’s still all to play for.”
Pressed on Sky News about Nigel Farage’s earlier comments that remain appeared to have edged the result, Banks said: “I think he has conceded, re-conceded … you know Nigel. Honestly, I still haven’t got a clue. I think once we start seeing some of the bigger results we will know.”
12.31am BST
00:31
Philip Oltermann
British emigrants in Berlin are gathered at the legendary Volksbühne theatre tonight to watch the incoming first results.
An overwhelming majority has voted remain – but not all of them did enthusiastically. Peter Vine, a 27-year-old research analyst, who recently moved to the German capital from Taiwan, said he was a reluctant Remainer. “I don’t understand why the European Union has to be so political. I can see the advantages of a trade union, but I don’t understand why we need a European parliament, for example. All this expensive bureaucracy seems excessive when countries like Greece are told to tighten their belts.”
In the end, he said he was swayed by the economic argument. “All those quangos and international bodies – they can’t all be wrong”. If leave had presented a more coherent argument, he said, he may have voted to leave. “I don’t feel European. I feel British, and maybe global.”
Eddie Izzard has joined supporters of the Stronger In campaign as they gather to wait for the result of the EU referendum at the Royal Festival Hall.
In Wandsworth, Rosena Allin-Khan, who succeeded Sadiq Khan, as Labour MP for Tooting, is predicting a 65-35 margin of victory in her constituency.
1.01am BST
“It’s looking good from the sampling,” she told the Guardian. Right on cue, an official with a sampling sheet came over showing 75 votes for remain and 17 for leave. Earlier, a Tory campaigner in Putney predicted a 60-40 margin of victory in his constituency. All three MPs in Wandsworth – Allin-Khan, Justine Greening, the international development secretary and MP for Putney, and Jane Ellison, the Conservative MP for Battersea – have campaigned for remain. Wandsworth is strong remain territory and the only question is the margin of victory.
01:01
Allin-Khan said she found some confusion among remain voters because the government had been so “woefully divided”. Labour voters by contrast felt Jeremy Corbyn had been vocal about remain.
Richard Adams
Labour MP Ronena Allin-Khan at count in Wandsworth: "It's looking good" for Remain #EUreferendum pic.twitter.com/u8QOu0APAq
Richard Adams has sent this from the count at Oxford town hall where the turnout has been announced as 70,411 out of 97,331 on the electoral roll – high at 72%.
Greening is also reporting a big majority for remain based on the sampling she’s seen – about 75-25. “That seems much more categorical than I expected,” she told the Guardian. “It’s a combination of London being more international and the immigration debate really jarring on people.”
The whole thing seems to have been too much for one Labour councillor, who earlier was involved in an altercation with police and then removed.
On whether the death of Labour MP Jo Cox had been a factor, Greening – who knew Cox from her humanitarian work – said: “It made people sit up and think and the vote was their first chance people had to show how they felt.”
Updated
Updated
at 12.29am BST
at 1.02am BST
12.23am BST
1.01am BST
00:23
01:01
With 5 results in out of 382 in the EU referendum, turnout is 67.21%.
With 8 results in out of 382 in the EU referendum, turnout is 69.7%.
12.22am BST
1.00am BST
00:22
01:00
The Leave victory in Sunderland has sent the pound plunging, down 3.5% to $1.435.
Michael Thrasher, the psephologist who is number crunching for Sky News, has just said the eight results in so far suggest it is going to be very close.
Sunderland in graph format #EUref pic.twitter.com/eqNW6MMkSV
12.58am BST
Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital said: “The pound is plummeting as Sunderland votes heavily for Leave. Markets are very nervy at the moment as the polls – and the markets - could be wrong. The Sunderland result has definitely altered the tone of the evening and markets are getting very choppy.”
00:58
The FTSE 100 is now also called to open lower by spread betting firm IG:
The Swindon result has been announced.
IG's out of hours market for the FTSE now at 6240 -1.5%
Remain: 51,220 (45.3%)
Leave: 61,745 (54.7%)
This looks like a hefty leave win but, according to the Hanretty data, leave should have been doing slightly better here.
Updated
Updated
at 12.26am BST
at 12.59am BST
12.21am BST
12.55am BST
00:21
00:55
Randeep Ramesh
12.55am BST
The count was halted in Bristol after fire alarm set off. The counting officer sent out staff. Vote Leave joke about being worried about what will happen to their ballot papers. It’s a false alarm.
00:55
Count halted in #bristol #euref after fire alarm set off pic.twitter.com/8BaRVV2XX7
Arron Banks, the co-founder of Leave.EU, has described the Sunderland result (see 12.20am) as a “wholesale rejection of the Labour party by its voters.”
Updated
12.54am BST
at 12.25am BST
00:54
12.20am BST
In Wandsworth, Mark Tran reports a turnout of 71.98% – or 158,018 out of 219,521 voters.
00:20
Leave win in Sunderland by more than expected
Leave has won a big victory in Sunderland.
Remain: 51,930 (39%)
Leave: 82,394 (61%)
Leave were expected to win here, according to the Hanretty figures, but not by a margin as big as this. It looks as if the early remain optimism was premature.
Updated
at 12.37am BST
12.20am BST
00:20
The SNP’s Humza Yousaf says he is “quietly optimistic” of a vote to remain.
