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EU referendum results: Farage declares 'independence day' – live EU referendum results: Nigel Farage declares 'independence day' – live
(35 minutes later)
4.41am BST
04:41
BBC says leave has won
The BBC has also called it for leave.
They are forecasting a four-point leave victory, 52% to 48%.
We're calling it - We're out
Updated
at 4.43am BST
4.39am BST
04:39
ITV says leave have won
ITV are calling it for leave.
ITV CALLS LEAVE WIN#EUref #Brexit
Only Robert Peston, ITV’s political editor, got his tweet wrong.
ITV News calls Remain victory by 52% to 48%. It's done.
(It’s been a long night.)
4.38am BST
04:38
Matthew Weaver
Liam Fox, the former defence secretary and leave campaigner, says David Cameron has a duty to stay on as prime minister to see Britain through the “turbulence” that a vote to leave the EU will bring.
Speaking to Sky News he also suggested Ukip should now disband. On the the prime minister’s future Fox said:
I think he should stay because there is clearly going to be some short-term turbulence, we have seen that in the markets tonight, although one might ask why they weren’t better prepared for the possibility of a Brexit vote. As the prime minister that gave us the referendum he is best placed to see us through. As prime minister of the coalition he showed that he had the skills to be able keep very disparate groups together.
That’s a prime minister who understands the sense of duty of taking the thing through to its conclusion. It would be quite wrong, and against his character, just to say, ‘I lost the referendum therefore I’m going.’ There’s a duty to take that process through to a logical conclusion. I hope that’s what we do.
On Ukip, Fox said:
What Ukip does now is up to them. Most rational people would say, ‘They have actually served their purpose. They set out to have a referendum and to get Britain to leave the European Union. That has been fulfilled. What’s the point of Ukip in the future? Every voter should be asking their member of parliament, ‘Will you stand by the verdict of the British people?’ Because that is what a democracy is.
4.33am BST
04:33
Leave set to win with 52%, according to latest Sky forecast
Here is the lastest forecast from Michael Thrasher, the psephologist who is doing the numbers for Sky.
LAtest MIchael Thrasher forecast model - Leave lead trimmed... 52% Leave - 48% Remain
Prof. Michael Thrasher says on Sky News that there is now a 70-80% change of the United Kingdom voting to Leave.
Updated
at 4.35am BST
4.31am BST
04:31
Ben Quinn
Chuka Umunna, the London Labour MP, hit back at the language being used by Nigel Farage in his victory speech (see 4.16am), telling the BBC:
When [Farage] gets up and says this is a victory for decent, for honest, real ordinary people, that tends to suggest that all the people who have just voted for us to stay don’t fit into that category.
The challenge for us as policymakers is how do we knit together our society after that division.
Updated
at 4.35am BST
4.29am BST
04:29
Steven Morris
In Wales 21 of 22 results have been declared – 17 for leave, four for remain. Running totals in Wales are 52.9% for leave and 47.1% for remain. Only Gwynedd to go. Wales is very much out.
Julie Morgan, Labour assembly member for Cardiff North and the wife of former first minister Rhodri Morgan, welcomed a win for remain in the capital. But she said her party needed to analyse why its heartland seats in the valleys and in cities like Swansea and Newport had voted to leave.
4.28am BST
04:28
Massive losses expected when London stock market opens
Graeme Wearden
City traders are bracing for a massive selloff when the London stock market opens at 8am.
The futures market is indicating that the FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares will plunge by 480 points, a drop of around 7.5%.
That would wipe around £120bn off the Footsie, which is home to many of Britain’s biggest companies.
You can track it on IG’s website.
Shares in banking giant HSBC have already plunged by 8% in Hong Kong (its shares are listed there, and in London).
4.27am BST
04:27
Here are some more results.
South Staffordshire
Remain 23,444 (35.15%) Leave 43,248 (64.85%) Leave maj 19,804 (29.69%) Electorate 85,788; Turnout 66,692 (77.74%)
Lancaster
Remain 35,732 (48.92%) Leave 37,309 (51.08%) Leave maj 1,577 (2.16%) Electorate 100,554; Turnout 73,041 (72.64%)
Newark and Sherwood
Remain 26,571 (39.61%) Leave 40,516 (60.39%) Leave maj 13,945 (20.79%) Electorate 87,322; Turnout 67,087 (76.83%)
South Holland
Remain 26,571 (39.61%) Leave 40,516 (60.39%) Leave maj 13,945 (20.79%) Electorate 87,322; Turnout 67,087 (76.83%)
Plymouth
Remain 53,458 (40.06%) Leave 79,997 (59.94%) Leave maj 26,539 (19.89%) Electorate 186,980; Turnout 133,455 (71.37%)
Blackburn with Darwen
Remain 28,522 (43.66%) Leave 36,799 (56.34%) Leave maj 8,277 (12.67%) Electorate 100,116; Turnout 65,321 (65.25%)
Tunbridge Wells
Remain 35,676 (54.86%) Leave 29,350 (45.14%) Remain maj 6,326 (9.73%) Electorate 82,178; Turnout 65,026 (79.13%)
Rushcliffe
Remain 40,522 (57.55%) Leave 29,888 (42.45%) Remain maj 10,634 (15.10%) Electorate 86,397; Turnout 70,410 (81.50%)
Hambleton
Remain 25,480 (46.34%) Leave 29,502 (53.66%) Leave maj 4,022 (7.32%) Electorate 70,139; Turnout 54,982 (78.39%)
Gravesham
Remain 18,876 (34.62%) Leave 35,643 (65.38%) Leave maj 16,767 (30.75%) Electorate 72,801; Turnout 54,519 (74.89%)
4.17am BST
04:17
Randeep Ramesh
Bristol voted strongly for staying in the EU, with remain getting more than 53,000 votes more than the leave camp.
In total, remain got 141,027 votes, more than 62% of the total cast, and leave 87,418. Sources in the leave camp say they were facing an uphill struggle as the city had been strongly leaning left, with the Greens campaigning hard. They also point out that the new mayor, Marvin Rees, had energised Labour voters. Remain supporters cheered the declaration but most left promptly – stunned by the nationwide results.
#bristol votes remain by 141027 leave 87418 pic.twitter.com/0hhYpU6G5f
4.16am BST
04:16
Farage welcomes 'victory for decent people'
This is what Nigel Farage said to his supporters. Just as he appeared to concede defeat prematurely at the start of the evening, he is now effectively declaring victory.
If the predications now are right this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people. We have fought against the multinationals, against the big merchant banks, against big politics, against lies against lies, corruption and deceit and today honesty and decency and belief in nation I think now is going to win.
We will have done it without having to fight, without a single bullet having been fired.
I hope this victory brings down this failed projects and brings us to a Europe of sovereign nation states trading together.
Let’s June the 23rd go down in our history as our independence day.
Updated
at 4.20am BST
4.14am BST
04:14
Libby Brooks
The SNP’s Westminster leader, Angus Robertson, has told ITV news that the scenario whereby Scotland votes to remain but the rest of UK opts for Brexit will trigger a “constitutional crisis”.
And with all but two results now declared in Scotland – with remain so far winning in 30 of 32 council areas across the country – it is painfully obvious that the constituent parts of the UK have voted in very different directions.
Granted, the remain vote in Scotland has not been decisive across the country: in Moray, for example, remain scraped through with 50.1%. But this is precisely the scenario that Nicola Sturgeon has been warning of since the EU referendum was first tabled: Scotland being “dragged out of the EU against its will”.
The SNP’s manifesto was clear: this scenario represents a “material change” in circumstances that could trigger a second independence referendum.
In her interview with the Guardian earlier this week, Sturgeon set out the next steps:
If there’s a leave vote … then there will be things I’ll want to do very quickly to assert our ability to have a direct voice both with the UK government and with Europe.
But also our manifesto was very clear that the Scottish parliament should in these circumstances have the right to propose another referendum. Even if we don’t take the decision straightaway that it’s definitely happening in a particular timescale we’ll have to start doing certain things to keep that option open. It takes time to legislate for a referendum. So it’s going to be really important to make sure that every option that is available to Scotland to protect our position is kept open.
4.11am BST
04:11
In his address to supporters Nigel Farage said he and his supporters had taken back control of the country “without a shot being fired”. In the light of the killing of Jo Cox, this went down particularly badly in the remain camp, according to journalists.
This is from the Independent’s Jon Stone.
Absolute silence at Remain party as Nigel Farage comes on TV. Shouts of anger when he starts talking about 'victory for real people'
And this is from the BBC’s James Landale.
Shouts of "shame" & "that's disgusting" at Remain party when Nigel Farage said Leave had won the #euref "without a shot being fired"
Updated
at 4.18am BST
4.07am BST4.07am BST
04:0704:07
Holly WattHolly Watt
Resounding win for leave in Clacton, Essex, with only 25,210 voting to remain, while 57,437 voted to get out of Europe. Resounding win for leave in the Tendring area which includes Clacton with only 25,210 voting to remain, while 57,437 voted to get out of Europe.
Chris Griffiths, a councillor for the Conservatives, said it was turning into a great night. He said:Chris Griffiths, a councillor for the Conservatives, said it was turning into a great night. He said:
The people have spoken and they’re saying it’s time to leave. There’s a lot of anger and disaffection in the area – they are fed up with Europe.The people have spoken and they’re saying it’s time to leave. There’s a lot of anger and disaffection in the area – they are fed up with Europe.
Ukip councillor Richard Everett said that Vote Leave had been very successful in getting out the vote:Ukip councillor Richard Everett said that Vote Leave had been very successful in getting out the vote:
We’ve done a much better job in our areas. I’ve been very pleased with this evening.We’ve done a much better job in our areas. I’ve been very pleased with this evening.
UpdatedUpdated
at 4.09am BST at 4.31am BST
4.06am BST4.06am BST
04:0604:06
This is from Sky’s Roddy Mansfield.This is from Sky’s Roddy Mansfield.
Leave breaks through the 500,000 vote advantage over Remain.Leave breaks through the 500,000 vote advantage over Remain.
4.05am BST4.05am BST
04:0504:05
Sterling dollar over the last 30 years .... pic.twitter.com/fFd7kUgzJGSterling dollar over the last 30 years .... pic.twitter.com/fFd7kUgzJG
"We are through 35" says Jeremy Cook at World First. The lowest since 1985. Happens as Nigel Farage appears on TV"We are through 35" says Jeremy Cook at World First. The lowest since 1985. Happens as Nigel Farage appears on TV
4.05am BST
04:05
Ben Quinn
By 4am, a series of key results had signposted how a victory for leave lay ahead.
After a lower than expected margin of victory for the remain campaign in Newcastle, where it won the backing of 54% of voters, there was a jolt after midnight when leave captured Sunderland with 61.3% of the vote in a city which has traditionally been a labour stronghold.
There was continued joy at leave parties during the night as swing areas across England delivered wins, often of a much larger magnitude than forecast.
The beginning declarations in some larger areas of London saw what was a fleeting piece of good news for remain as the south London district of Wandsworth delivered 118,463 votes for remaining in the EU.
But it was short-lived as traditional election marginals backed leave. Nuneaton, a central English town seen as a bellwether of “middle England” opinion, delivered a 66% vote for leave.
In Wales, too, leave were dominant where at least 18 of the 22 Welsh authorities had declared. Only three – the Vale of Glamorgan in the south, Monmouthshire in the south-east and Ceredigion in west Wales – had voted to remain.
As expected, remain won out in Scotland, although margins of victory and turnouts fell short of what was needed to stop the leave juggernaut in the south.
4.04am BST
04:04
Nigel Farage is addressing supporters. He says he expects leave to win.
Dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom ... This will be a victory for ordinary people.
He declares June 23 “our independence day”.
Updated
at 4.07am BST
4.03am BST
04:03
As John Rentoul points out, we may well end up with an emergency Commons sitting on Saturday.
I'm in shock. David Cameron's gamble has failed. His career is over. Will the Commons sit on Saturday? Is Boris Johnson really up to it?
(It would be the second recall in a week, which may be unprecedented.)
4.01am BST
04:01
There are 217 results in now, out of 382. Here are the latest numbers.
Areas
Remain: 69
Leave: 148
Votes
Remain: 8,042,118 (48.5%)
Leave: 8,544,442 (51.5%)
With 217 #EUref results in, here are the figures - Stronger, safer, better off 8,042,118 (48.5%) / Take back control 8,544,442 (51.5%)
3.58am BST
03:58
Here is Edinburgh announcing it has voted remain …
… while Chelmsford returned a majority vote to leave.
3.57am BST
03:57
The Specator’s James Forsyth thinks we may have a general election before too long.
I suspect we might well see a general election before Article 50 is invoked; whoever the PM is seeking a mandate for the planned terms
3.55am BST
03:55
Will the Bank of England intervene in the currency markets? Or perhaps cut interest rates? One former member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee thinks the Bank will have to act:
GBP down to $1.37 presume MPC members been contacted only question what time they will meet and will they cut by 25bp or 50bp
"Sterling is in free fall at the moment, from the optimism at 10.20pm the pound is now 10% lower," said Jeremy Cook at World First
"It looks like its goose is cooked," says Jeremy Cook, talking about the pound
3.55am BST
03:55
The Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg told the BBC that, if there is a recession, it won’t be because of Brexit.
There will be no recession because of Brexit, though there are fragile economic conditions in other parts of the world. I can’t say no recession ever, but not caused by Brexit specifically.
3.53am BST
03:53
Remain source says it looks 'very tough from here'
3.52am BST
03:52
Cameron will have to resign if Britain votes for Brexit, says Benn
Hilary Benn, the shadow foreign secretary, has said David Cameron will have to resign if the UK votes to leave.
If there were to be a vote to Leave, then as far as the Prime Minister is concerned I don’t see how he is going to remain in his job for very long at all.
I think it’s very hard for him in those circumstances to remain. If you are the prime minister, you’ve called this referendum, you’ve laid your reputation on the line and your arguments, I think it’s going to be very hard.