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EU referendum results: counting begins in poll to decide UK's future – live
EU referendum results: 84 pro-Brexit tories back Cameron as counting begins – live
(35 minutes later)
10.54pm BST
11.28pm BST
22:54
23:28
Boris Johnson, the lead figure in the Vote Leave campaign, has tweeted.
But Matthew Goodwin, the academic and Ukip expert, has heard different figures for Sunderland.
The polls have now closed, democracy has been served + we await the verdict of the people. Thanks to everyone involved + everyone who voted
Sunderland expected early. Forecast Brexit vote 53%. Ukip polled 30% here in 2014. Median income only £19,000 #euref #LSEBrexitVote
10.53pm BST
That would be roughly in line with the Hanretty expectations (see 10.12pm), pointing to a very close result nationwide.
22:53
11.27pm BST
On Twitter people have been in touch to report very high turnout figures.
23:27
@AndrewSparrow Sheringham (Nfk) counting officer (w/89-year-old mum last min Remain ) amazed @ turnout. 1200 of 1300 registered voters.
Peter Walker
@AndrewSparrow In Clophill (Beds) we had 83% turnout for station votes and approx. 80% overall. A huge increase on usual turnout figures
Friday’s UK newspapers showed two different approaches: either risk hinting at the result or else talk about the subject in much more general terms.
10.53pm BST
The Sun took the bolder option, its “Brex Mad” headline talking about the high turnout but then adding at the top, “Farage concedes to remain”.
22:53
Friday's Sun front page:Brex Mad#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/3CdofAcooB
Ben Quinn
Metro took a similar approach, leading on Farage’s apparent concession.
The importance of Sunderland – one of the supposed bellwethers expected to declare early – has been emphasised by John Curtice, one of the UK’s leading psephologists.
Updated Metro front page:Farage: I think it's all over#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/lMMKh2RLSr
“Newcastle and Sunderland are different from each other,” the University of Strathclyde professor has told the BBC. “Newcastle is a the kind of place with lots of graduates living there, the kind of place again where we expect Remain to do relatively well.
The Times, meanwhile, played it fairly safe for a first edition, merely noting the closeness of the race.
“In contrast, Sunderland: much more working class, much smaller university community. That is somewhere we would expect leave not to do astonishingly well but relatively well.
Friday's Times front page:Closest call for Britain#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/I4OhWIJtH3
“Certainly, if the remain side were to win in Sunderland that would be a very good news for them. That would be an indication that we have perhaps voted to remain.”
The Daily Telegraph focused on the aftermath, and a letter from 84 pro-Brexit Tory MPs calling for David Cameron to stay.
He also played down the significance of Gibraltar as a “new Sunderland”. “To be honest we expected it to be very strongly for remain even if the turnout in Gibraltar is extraordinarily high,” he said.
Friday's Telegraph front page:Brexit MPs pledge loyalty to PM#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/PG9iSHi4bn
10.49pm BST
The Guardian and Mirror, by contrast, talk of a wider need to heal and reunite, both as a nation and with the EU.
22:49
Friday's Guardian:Party leaders reach out to dividednation after bitter EU referendum#tomorrowspaperstoday #EUref pic.twitter.com/wkptH9w3hQ
Farage says he thinks 'Remain will edge it'
Friday's Daily Mirror front page:Project Reunite#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/s21zUqAk2I
Here is the full quote from Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, saying he thinks Remain will edge it.
The Daily Mail goes somewhat off-piste, calling investment bankers “parasites” for, um, doing what they do every single day, which is to speculate on how world events could move markets.
It’s been an extraordinary referendum campaign, turnout looks to be exceptionally high and (it) looks like Remain will edge it. Ukip and I are going nowhere and the party will only continue to grow stronger in the future.
Friday's Daily Mail front page:The £100bn parasite bankers#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/OXShDSXvhK
10.45pm BST
The Financial Times also leads on the markets, though is understandably a bit less shocked.
22:45
Friday's FT:City watchdogs on high alert over expected post-poll trading frenzy#tomorrowspaperstoday #EUref pic.twitter.com/YXJm47nOVu
While neither campaign has dared to call the vote yet, the Sun, which has backed Brexit, has gone with this for its first edition:
Only the Morning Star, so far, has veered from the EU line, with a story about foreign aid and private health companies.
Tomorrow's front page: Brits go Referendum mad with over 30 million voting pic.twitter.com/Gud3HQbTpj
Friday's Morning Star:Foreign aid cash lines pockets of health privateers#Tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/FSR4l8fUh4
10.43pm BST
11.21pm BST
22:43
23:21
84 pro-Brexit Tory MPs sign letter saying Cameron should stay as prime minister
Here is more from tonight’s YouGov poll.
Dis-United Kingdom? @YouGov's On-the-Day poll demonstrates how groups in society have such differing views on #EURef pic.twitter.com/lAoeamMtLe
Our On-the-Day poll shows challenge facing leaders. Majority of Con and nearly third of Lab voters support Leave. pic.twitter.com/ZHNNG8aZV5
11.18pm BST
23:18
Andrew Sparrow
Andrew Sparrow
The Conservative MP Robert Syms has been getting pro-Brexit Conservative MPs to sign a letter saying that David Cameron should stay on as prime minister regardless of the result of the referendum. He has just published it now on Twitter.
This is from the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges.
This evening I delivered to Gavin Williamson MP,PPS to the Prime Minister a letter from Vote Leave supporters who are also Tory MPs
If the sampling from Sunderland is correct, Remain have won. And by a good margin.
The letter thanked Prime Minister David Cameron for giving the British people a choice of their destiny today .
This is significant because, according to Professor Chris Hanretty’s data (see 10.12pm), Sunderland is an area where, if Remain and Leave are 50/50 nationwide, Leave should be six points ahead (because it is inherently more pro-Brexit).
"We believe whatever the British people decide you have both a mandate and a duty to continue leading the nation implementing our policies
Here is an extract from Hanretty’s blog.
Given the available time not possible to approach all vote leave colleagues to ask them to sign but many have expressed support for the PM
If the result in Sunderland is very close, then Remain has probably won. I said that we should expect Leave to be six percentage points ahead in Sunderland.
Here are the signatories. They include Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.
The letter was signed by 84 MPs, two-thirds of those who publicly supported the Vote Leave Campaign list attached pic.twitter.com/CvKYCWyZJz
The original letter , none signed in pencil ! pic.twitter.com/w5JYShnbWY
Analysis: Does this mean David Cameron will definitely remain prime minister, whatever happens? Not necessarily. If Leave were to win decisively, it would still be hard to see Cameron holding on for long regardless of what tonight’s letter says. But at the moment no one is predicting that leave will win decisively.
By signing this letter, these 84 MPs are effectively committing themselves to not writing a letter to the chair of the backbench 1922 committee calling for a vote of no confidence in Cameron. (If 50 MPs demand such a vote, it goes ahead; a leadership contest would only take place if Cameron lost, or if he subsequently resigned.)
The real significance of the letter is that it is likely to deter those Tory MPs who are determined to demand a vote of no confidence regardless of the outcome of the referendum. Last month, the Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen said that he thought a leadership challenge was “probably highly likely” and that there were enough Tory MPs unhappy with Cameron to ensure that a confidence vote took place whatever happened in the referendum. Now that is starting to look like a rash forecast. Syms may also have found that some Tories became more willing to sign his letter in the last few days as the polls shifted back towards remain.
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11.15pm BST
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23:15
Holly Watt
Randeep Ramesh
My colleague Holly Watt is in Essex, where Ian Davidson, chief executive of Tendring council, said there had been a very high number of postal votes in the area.
Ballot boxes arrive in Bristol. Although the city was supposed to be one of the last to count votes at 6am, the Guardian has been told that it was likely to be earlier. Expect a vote from the supposedly pro-remain citadel by 4am.
Davidson said 19,000 postal votes had been requested for the referendum, compared to 14-15,000 at other elections. “There are a lot of people, in their 30s and 40s who are voting for the first time ever in this election,” he said.
Tendring district council includes Clacton, which voted for the first Ukip MP, Douglas Carswell. Richard Everett, a local councillor, said the turnout had been very high, adding: “All the polling stations have been very busy.”
11.13pm BST
10.33pm BST
23:13
22:33
This is from the pollster Deborah Mattinson.
Steven Morris
Kettering turnout 76% - much higher than GE2015 if true.,,
In Cardiff, Andrew RT Davies, the leader of the Welsh Tories, believes there is “every possibility” of Wales voting out. Davies went against the prime minister and campaigned for leave.
11.12pm BST
He told the Guardian: “I do think it’s going to be very close. There’s a large turnout without a shadow of a doubt. The people I’ve spoken to who are for out have remained solidly out and have gone and voted out. I think we may be in for a surprise in Wales.
23:12
“When you think of the weight of the government machine and the information that was thrown out at the taxpayers’ expense from the remain side then I do think that for us to be competitive is a remarkable achievement.”
This is from the BBC’s Emma Simpson.
He backed David Cameron – no matter the result. He said: “The prime minister is the prime minister. He’s got a five-year mandate. I think the party deserves great credit for delivering the referendum. A cynical person could have said it would have been easier to push it into the long grass.”
Sounds like a big turnout for both City of London and Westminster counts. As high as 82% and the Remain camp in confident mood.
11.10pm BST
23:10
Pro-Brexit Theresa Villiers says she thinks Remain have won
Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary and one of the pro-Brexit cabinet ministers, has just told Sky News:
My instinct is that Remain have won.
11.08pm BST
23:08
Andrew Sparrow
This is from Sky’s Faisal Islam.
IN sources say two late poll shifts: 1. status quo reversion on economy 2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics
“Revulsion of leave tactics” is probably a reference to Nigel Farage’s “Breaking Point” poster, which may explain why people in the Vote Leave camp (which is not linked to Ukip) are so angry with Farage. (See 10.55pm.)
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10.30pm BST
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Nick Fletcher
Josh Halliday
Economist James Knightley at ING Bank has looked at the economic implications of the UK remaining in the EU, assuming the initial indications are correct.
Sunderland is once again vying to be the first to declare its result – and expecting a high turnout. About 45% of the city’s 207,207 voters do so by postal vote. We’re told that a significant number of those votes had been cast by yesterday; and 78% of the postal vote was returned – one of highest on record. So if that is matched by voters in the polling booth then the turnout here could be very high indeed.
And there’s good and bad news. Investment which has been put on hold should start up again, but as the economy recovers the chances of an interest rate rise increase.
They're just showing off now #EUref #sunderland #alwaysfirst pic.twitter.com/2YIOox9l4l
Knightley said: “Making a big leap to assume these sample polls are correct, it should provide a near-term boost to the economy. if it is true, the slowdown in investment and hiring caused by the uncertainty that the vote has generated should reverse and the UK economy should revert back towards trend growth. We also think that inflation pressures will pick up due to labour market tightness and there will be a growing sense that a Bank of England rate hike won’t be too far away. We still think February 2017 with a second rate hike in the second half of 2017.”
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11.07pm BST
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23:07
Henry McDonald
This dispatch has just arrived from Henry McDonald in Belfast:
As counting gets under way, Northern Ireland’s Electoral Office clearly assumes everyone coming to tonight’s count is driving a car. Those journalists and observers coming by foot had a 25-minute plod through an empty industrial estate full of rain water-filled craters and mud banks before they could reach the Titanic visitors centre for the 10pm deadline, some of them ending up late for the ballot boxes being opened. Nil points so far for organisation!
10.27pm BST
22:27
Libby Brooks
Libby Brooks has sent this from the Glasgow count.
Waiting for the first ballots to arrive at the Glasgow count https://t.co/Hba3ISCout
10.26pm BST
22:26
Peter Walker
Chris Grayling, the former justice secretary and a prominent Tory leave supporter, has also declined to say his side might have lost. “It’s much too early,” he told Sky News. “We have no idea what the result’s going to be.” Labour’s Alan Johnson, a main figure in remain, agreed: “It’s the first time in six weeks I’ve agreed with Chris,” he said. “For a post-match analysis we have to wait for post match.”
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10.25pm BST
22:25
Ben Quinn
The first predictions from MPs are trickling through and Labour’s Chuka Umunna has said that he is “reasonably confident” of the result he and the remain side have been campaigning for.
“I am reasonably confident that hopefully remain gets the result but it could go the other way,” he told Sky News a little earlier when pressed.
The former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown said: “The truth is that nobody knows.”
When told that Nigel Farage appeared to be conceding defeat, Ashdown laughed and said that the Ukip leader was “hedging his bets”.
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10.24pm BST
22:24
Anushka Asthana
Leave think Nigel Farage may be right. (See 10.03pm.) “Nigel Farage is probably right,” one Leave source said.
55-45 for Remain is on the cards. But that means about as many will have voted for Brexit as voted for every government since War.
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10.23pm BST
22:23
Richard Adams
Our education editor Richard Adams has sent this from Oxford:
Some unusually high turnouts are being reported around Oxfordshire, where an extra 30,000 people joined the electoral roll compared with the last general election.
The city of Oxford is expected to return its results first at about 2am, and is likely to be strongly remain given its combination of affluence and education. Leave campaigners were out in force in Oxford’s Cornmarket today, but an unusual alliance of Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative activists have been working together for remain and blanketing the city. Most of the rest of the county, including David Cameron’s seat in west Oxfordshire, is strongly Tory, where Ukip has previously failed to make in-roads.
Some parts of Oxfordshire have reported very high turnout. In Kennington, in the Vale of White Horse, some 80% of voters had cast ballots more than an hour before polls closed.
And Nicola Blackwood, the Tory MP for Oxford West and Abingdon, tweeted:
Well, Oxford seems convinced - clear cross party support for #Remain on display today #EUref pic.twitter.com/dLbJmyQrJm
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10.23pm BST
22:23
Sterling and markets rise after YouGov poll
Nick Fletcher
Nick Fletcher
The YouGov poll has seen the pound climb even higher, now up to a new high for the year of close to $1.50, while the FTSE 100 is forecast to open around 90 points higher tomorrow. Investors clearly like the idea that the Remain campaign may be in the lead.
The pound has hit another new high for the year (the highest since December in fact) of $1.5018. Here’s how it spiked after the polls closed:
Michael Hewson at City firm CMC Markets said: “Just prior to polls closing late money bets on the betting markets saw stock market futures and sterling surge higher;
Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, said: “While we expect further upside for the pound if the unofficial exit poll is correct and remain have won the referendum, the focus in the markets could shift to the margin of victory. An 8% margin of victory, as suggested by the Ipsos Mori poll, would probably be considered a big enough margin to put the Brexit issue to bed for many years, which could give a substantial boost to risky assets in the coming hours. However, anything below a 5% margin may not be considered wide enough to reduce Brexit uncertainty, which could limit enthusiasm for a pound and risk rally.”
“As the final poll from YouGov hit the wires sterling pushed back higher again towards the 1.5000 level. FTSE 100 futures are trading above 6,425 [the index closed at 6338]”
But Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital warned: “For now markets are pretty calm but these are only forecasts – we’re waiting for the first declarations from the first counts to get a clearer picture. The first real bellwether is Sunderland, when we’ll have a much better idea of where we stand.
“If there is an unexpectedly high show for Leave there we could yet start to see some moves in sterling and stock futures. “
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23:03
In Sunderland (for reasons best know to themselves) they pride themselves on declaring election results more quickly than anywhere else in the country. Here is some video of the boxes being rushed to the count.
Steven Morris
10.18pm BST
The BBC’s Mark Hutchings has tweeted the latest on postal votes from Flintshire in north Wales:
22:18
86 per cent of postal votes sent out in Flintshire have been returned - the highest on record. #bbceuref
Britain Stronger in Europe say they are not getting too carried away by the YouGov poll. “We got burnt by YouGov last year,” a source says. “It’s too close to call.”
10.17pm BST
22:17
Peter Walker
Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative former work and pensions secretary, on BBC News has declined to call it for remain, saying it is still too close to call. “We don’t know where we are, and that’s what make it very difficult to call,” he said.
Duncan Smith said he felt the vote could be swayed by a very high turnout, especially in more deprived areas, which he said would lean more to leave. Turnout in such parts of Essex were getting close to 80%, he said, against about 40% for a general election.
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11.03pm BST
23:03
This is from Peter Spiegel, the FT’s news editor.
Sources briefed on hedge fund exit polls told me they had similar 52-48 result for Remain as of late afternoon https://t.co/fWk5qpoqSz
11.01pm BST
23:01
Mark Tran
Mark Tran is in Wandsworth, where the postal vote turnout was 83.6% as of 9pm – 47,510 sent out and 39,717 returned. He has also tweeted a picture from the count:
Emptying ballot boxes in Wandsworth as the count picks up momentum #EUreferendum pic.twitter.com/zORkNGKG0w
11.00pm BST
23:00
This is from Ipsos MORI’s Bobby Duffy.
Our polling over final days: 51% Remain on Tues, 54% on Weds and 54% again on polling day #EUref pic.twitter.com/P50BzjAevO
10.59pm BST
22:59
Ipsos MORI poll gives remain an 8-point lead
Ipsos MORI have released some new polling figures. These are from a poll that finished today.
Ipsos MORI (#EUref on the day):REMAIN 54 (+2)LEAVE 46 (-2)Changes vs earlier today*** ALSO NOT AN EXIT POLL ***#Brexit #EUreferendum
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10.56pm BST
22:56
Counting has started in Birmingham and London. Don’t know when results will come in? Here’s our handy guide to give you all the details.
