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EU referendum result: counting begins in poll to decide Britain's future – live EU referendum results: counting begins in poll to decide UK's future – live
(35 minutes later)
10.54pm BST
22:54
Boris Johnson, the lead figure in the Vote Leave campaign, has tweeted.
The polls have now closed, democracy has been served + we await the verdict of the people. Thanks to everyone involved + everyone who voted
10.53pm BST
22:53
On Twitter people have been in touch to report very high turnout figures.
@AndrewSparrow Sheringham (Nfk) counting officer (w/89-year-old mum last min Remain ) amazed @ turnout. 1200 of 1300 registered voters.
@AndrewSparrow In Clophill (Beds) we had 83% turnout for station votes and approx. 80% overall. A huge increase on usual turnout figures
10.53pm BST
22:53
Ben Quinn
The importance of Sunderland – one of the supposed bellwethers expected to declare early – has been emphasised by John Curtice, one of the UK’s leading psephologists.
“Newcastle and Sunderland are different from each other,” the University of Strathclyde professor has told the BBC. “Newcastle is a the kind of place with lots of graduates living there, the kind of place again where we expect Remain to do relatively well.
“In contrast, Sunderland: much more working class, much smaller university community. That is somewhere we would expect leave not to do astonishingly well but relatively well.
“Certainly, if the remain side were to win in Sunderland that would be a very good news for them. That would be an indication that we have perhaps voted to remain.”
He also played down the significance of Gibraltar as a “new Sunderland”. “To be honest we expected it to be very strongly for remain even if the turnout in Gibraltar is extraordinarily high,” he said.
10.49pm BST
22:49
Farage says he thinks 'Remain will edge it'
Here is the full quote from Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, saying he thinks Remain will edge it.
It’s been an extraordinary referendum campaign, turnout looks to be exceptionally high and (it) looks like Remain will edge it. Ukip and I are going nowhere and the party will only continue to grow stronger in the future.
10.45pm BST
22:45
While neither campaign has dared to call the vote yet, the Sun, which has backed Brexit, has gone with this for its first edition:
Tomorrow's front page: Brits go Referendum mad with over 30 million voting pic.twitter.com/Gud3HQbTpj
10.43pm BST
22:43
84 pro-Brexit Tory MPs sign letter saying Cameron should stay as prime minister
Andrew Sparrow
The Conservative MP Robert Syms has been getting pro-Brexit Conservative MPs to sign a letter saying that David Cameron should stay on as prime minister regardless of the result of the referendum. He has just published it now on Twitter.
This evening I delivered to Gavin Williamson MP,PPS to the Prime Minister a letter from Vote Leave supporters who are also Tory MPs
The letter thanked Prime Minister David Cameron for giving the British people a choice of their destiny today .
"We believe whatever the British people decide you have both a mandate and a duty to continue leading the nation implementing our policies
Given the available time not possible to approach all vote leave colleagues to ask them to sign but many have expressed support for the PM
Here are the signatories. They include Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.
The letter was signed by 84 MPs, two-thirds of those who publicly supported the Vote Leave Campaign list attached pic.twitter.com/CvKYCWyZJz
The original letter , none signed in pencil ! pic.twitter.com/w5JYShnbWY
Analysis: Does this mean David Cameron will definitely remain prime minister, whatever happens? Not necessarily. If Leave were to win decisively, it would still be hard to see Cameron holding on for long regardless of what tonight’s letter says. But at the moment no one is predicting that leave will win decisively.
By signing this letter, these 84 MPs are effectively committing themselves to not writing a letter to the chair of the backbench 1922 committee calling for a vote of no confidence in Cameron. (If 50 MPs demand such a vote, it goes ahead; a leadership contest would only take place if Cameron lost, or if he subsequently resigned.)
The real significance of the letter is that it is likely to deter those Tory MPs who are determined to demand a vote of no confidence regardless of the outcome of the referendum. Last month, the Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen said that he thought a leadership challenge was “probably highly likely” and that there were enough Tory MPs unhappy with Cameron to ensure that a confidence vote took place whatever happened in the referendum. Now that is starting to look like a rash forecast. Syms may also have found that some Tories became more willing to sign his letter in the last few days as the polls shifted back towards remain.
Updated
at 10.49pm BST
10.39pm BST
22:39
Holly Watt
My colleague Holly Watt is in Essex, where Ian Davidson, chief executive of Tendring council, said there had been a very high number of postal votes in the area.
Davidson said 19,000 postal votes had been requested for the referendum, compared to 14-15,000 at other elections. “There are a lot of people, in their 30s and 40s who are voting for the first time ever in this election,” he said.
Tendring district council includes Clacton, which voted for the first Ukip MP, Douglas Carswell. Richard Everett, a local councillor, said the turnout had been very high, adding: “All the polling stations have been very busy.”
10.33pm BST
22:33
Steven Morris
In Cardiff, Andrew RT Davies, the leader of the Welsh Tories, believes there is “every possibility” of Wales voting out. Davies went against the prime minister and campaigned for leave.
He told the Guardian: “I do think it’s going to be very close. There’s a large turnout without a shadow of a doubt. The people I’ve spoken to who are for out have remained solidly out and have gone and voted out. I think we may be in for a surprise in Wales.
“When you think of the weight of the government machine and the information that was thrown out at the taxpayers’ expense from the remain side then I do think that for us to be competitive is a remarkable achievement.”
He backed David Cameron – no matter the result. He said: “The prime minister is the prime minister. He’s got a five-year mandate. I think the party deserves great credit for delivering the referendum. A cynical person could have said it would have been easier to push it into the long grass.”
Updated
at 10.47pm BST
10.30pm BST
22:30
Nick Fletcher
Economist James Knightley at ING Bank has looked at the economic implications of the UK remaining in the EU, assuming the initial indications are correct.
And there’s good and bad news. Investment which has been put on hold should start up again, but as the economy recovers the chances of an interest rate rise increase.
Knightley said: “Making a big leap to assume these sample polls are correct, it should provide a near-term boost to the economy. if it is true, the slowdown in investment and hiring caused by the uncertainty that the vote has generated should reverse and the UK economy should revert back towards trend growth. We also think that inflation pressures will pick up due to labour market tightness and there will be a growing sense that a Bank of England rate hike won’t be too far away. We still think February 2017 with a second rate hike in the second half of 2017.”
Updated
at 10.32pm BST
10.30pm BST
22:30
Henry McDonald
This dispatch has just arrived from Henry McDonald in Belfast:
As counting gets under way, Northern Ireland’s Electoral Office clearly assumes everyone coming to tonight’s count is driving a car. Those journalists and observers coming by foot had a 25-minute plod through an empty industrial estate full of rain water-filled craters and mud banks before they could reach the Titanic visitors centre for the 10pm deadline, some of them ending up late for the ballot boxes being opened. Nil points so far for organisation!
10.27pm BST
22:27
Libby Brooks
Libby Brooks has sent this from the Glasgow count.
Waiting for the first ballots to arrive at the Glasgow count https://t.co/Hba3ISCout
10.26pm BST
22:26
Peter Walker
Chris Grayling, the former justice secretary and a prominent Tory leave supporter, has also declined to say his side might have lost. “It’s much too early,” he told Sky News. “We have no idea what the result’s going to be.” Labour’s Alan Johnson, a main figure in remain, agreed: “It’s the first time in six weeks I’ve agreed with Chris,” he said. “For a post-match analysis we have to wait for post match.”
Updated
at 10.47pm BST
10.25pm BST
22:25
Ben Quinn
The first predictions from MPs are trickling through and Labour’s Chuka Umunna has said that he is “reasonably confident” of the result he and the remain side have been campaigning for.
“I am reasonably confident that hopefully remain gets the result but it could go the other way,” he told Sky News a little earlier when pressed.
The former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown said: “The truth is that nobody knows.”
When told that Nigel Farage appeared to be conceding defeat, Ashdown laughed and said that the Ukip leader was “hedging his bets”.
Updated
at 10.47pm BST
10.24pm BST
22:24
Anushka Asthana
Leave think Nigel Farage may be right. (See 10.03pm.) “Nigel Farage is probably right,” one Leave source said.
55-45 for Remain is on the cards. But that means about as many will have voted for Brexit as voted for every government since War.
Updated
at 10.47pm BST
10.23pm BST
22:23
Richard Adams
Our education editor Richard Adams has sent this from Oxford:
Some unusually high turnouts are being reported around Oxfordshire, where an extra 30,000 people joined the electoral roll compared with the last general election.
The city of Oxford is expected to return its results first at about 2am, and is likely to be strongly remain given its combination of affluence and education. Leave campaigners were out in force in Oxford’s Cornmarket today, but an unusual alliance of Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative activists have been working together for remain and blanketing the city. Most of the rest of the county, including David Cameron’s seat in west Oxfordshire, is strongly Tory, where Ukip has previously failed to make in-roads.
Some parts of Oxfordshire have reported very high turnout. In Kennington, in the Vale of White Horse, some 80% of voters had cast ballots more than an hour before polls closed.
And Nicola Blackwood, the Tory MP for Oxford West and Abingdon, tweeted:
Well, Oxford seems convinced - clear cross party support for #Remain on display today #EUref pic.twitter.com/dLbJmyQrJm
Updated
at 10.35pm BST
10.23pm BST
22:23
Sterling and markets rise after YouGov poll
Nick Fletcher
The YouGov poll has seen the pound climb even higher, now up to a new high for the year of close to $1.50, while the FTSE 100 is forecast to open around 90 points higher tomorrow. Investors clearly like the idea that the Remain campaign may be in the lead.
Michael Hewson at City firm CMC Markets said: “Just prior to polls closing late money bets on the betting markets saw stock market futures and sterling surge higher;
“As the final poll from YouGov hit the wires sterling pushed back higher again towards the 1.5000 level. FTSE 100 futures are trading above 6,425 [the index closed at 6338]”
But Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital warned: “For now markets are pretty calm but these are only forecasts – we’re waiting for the first declarations from the first counts to get a clearer picture. The first real bellwether is Sunderland, when we’ll have a much better idea of where we stand.
“If there is an unexpectedly high show for Leave there we could yet start to see some moves in sterling and stock futures. “
Updated
at 10.23pm BST
10.21pm BST
22:21
In Sunderland (for reasons best know to themselves) they pride themselves on declaring election results more quickly than anywhere else in the country. Here is some video of the boxes being rushed to the count.
10.18pm BST10.18pm BST
22:1822:18
Britain Stronger in Europe say they are not getting too carried away by the YouGov poll. “We got burnt by YouGov last year,” a source says. “It’s too close to call.”Britain Stronger in Europe say they are not getting too carried away by the YouGov poll. “We got burnt by YouGov last year,” a source says. “It’s too close to call.”
10.17pm BST10.17pm BST
22:1722:17
Peter WalkerPeter Walker
Iain Duncan Smith on BBC News has declined to call it for remain, saying it is still too close to call. “We don’t know where we are, and that’s what make it very difficult to call,” he said.
Duncan Smith said he felt the vote could be swayed by a very high turnout, especially in more deprived areas, which he said would lean more to leave. Turnout in such parts of Essex were getting close to 80%, he said, against about 40% for a general election.
Updated
at 10.18pm BST
10.17pm BST
22:17
Peter Walker
Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative former work and pensions secretary, on BBC News has declined to call it for remain, saying it is still too close to call. “We don’t know where we are, and that’s what make it very difficult to call,” he said.Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative former work and pensions secretary, on BBC News has declined to call it for remain, saying it is still too close to call. “We don’t know where we are, and that’s what make it very difficult to call,” he said.
Duncan Smith said he felt the vote could be swayed by a very high turnout, especially in more deprived areas, which he said would lean more to leave. Turnout in such parts of Essex were getting close to 80%, he said, against about 40% for a general election.Duncan Smith said he felt the vote could be swayed by a very high turnout, especially in more deprived areas, which he said would lean more to leave. Turnout in such parts of Essex were getting close to 80%, he said, against about 40% for a general election.
10.15pm BST
22:15
Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president, has come out with his final prediction. He thinks Remain will have a lead over Leave of about 8.5%, as he explain on his blog.
Let’s assume the polls haven’t screwed up completely, and the true eve-of-referendum position, including Gibraltar and expatriate voters, was Remain 51.2-55.3%, Leave 44.7-48.8%. Adding in on-the day effects that hover between neutral and a 2 point lift for Remain, the final UK result should be somewhere in the range of Remain 51.2-57.3%, Leave 42.7-48.8%
This gives us a mid-point prediction of an 8.5% lead for remain, or a majority of around 2.5 million of votes cast. But don’t be surprised if the gap is less than one million – or as much as four million. And if the phone polls have been systematically overstating support for Remain throughout the campaign, then a victory for Brexit is perfectly possible.
My apologies if that is not precise enough for you. If you need a more exact forecast, I suggest you toss a coin or ask an astrologer.
10.13pm BST
22:13
The final turnout in Gibraltar if 84%, the BBC reports.
10.12pm BST
22:12
In a general election the psephologists can start to work out who’s winning or losing as soon as the first results come in by looking at the swing - the difference between the new result, and the last election in the constituency. Obviously that won’t be possible this time, but there are ways of working out whether Leave and Remain are doing better or worse than expected.
The results are being counted in 380 council areas in Britain. Northern Ireland, which counts as one areas, and Gibraltar, take the total number of areas to 382. Using data from the British Election Survey (an ongoing mass and very thorough opinion poll), the academic Professor Chris Hanretty has ranked all areas according to how likely they are to vote Leave or Remain. He explains his methodology in a blog here, and the full table is here (pdf).
Sky News has compiled an alternative Brexit ranking for all the council areas in Britain. Their figures are based on demographic data (taking into account, for example, the fact that older people are more likely to vote Leave.) Some of their results overlap closely with Hanretty figures (which are based on Leave/Remain polling, but from 2015), and but some do not.
My Guardian data colleagues will be using some of this information to produce their own analysis as the night goes on.
10.10pm BST
22:10
Here is more on the YouGov poll.
YouGov on-the-day poll: REMAIN 52, LEAVE 48 pic.twitter.com/TFlAcGcYIR
Breaking: exclusive @skynews/ Yougov poll of 3000 today has Remain at 52: Leave at 48 - NOT an exit poll
10.08pm BST
22:08
But, just to make things confusing, Leave.EU, the group linked to Ukip, has put out a news statement saying it has polled 10.000 people over the last two days. It says its figures put Leave 4-points ahead.
Leave: 52%
Remain: 48%
But Leave.EU has not given any further details, or even said who carried out the polling. Nigel Farage clearly has his doubts. (See 10.03pm.)
10.06pm BST
22:06
YouGov poll gives Remain a 4-point lead
YouGov has carried a poll of 5,000 people and YouGov’s Joe Twyman has just announced the figures on Sky News. Here are the figures:
Remain: 52%
Leave: 48%
10.03pm BST
22:03
According to Sky News, Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is saying “it looks like Remain will edge it”.
9.59pm BST
21:59
Nick Fletcher
In the City the markets appear to be betting on a Remain result. Earlier, shares moved sharply higher as did sterling.
And in the last half an hour before the polls closed the pound’s rise has accelerated. It is currently up 1.35% at $1.4903, not quite at its high for the day but heading back in that direction.
The pound builds on gains just before end of voting day #EUref pic.twitter.com/d8isG7Lyjh
Pound volatility has crashed while polling stations still open as speculators sell vol out of fear of boring results pic.twitter.com/RdYo9Utj16
Fear Index Vix drops as #Brexit angst cools. pic.twitter.com/kGz9CoIFl2
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.08pm BST at 10.42pm BST
9.58pm BST
21:58
As the polls close, here are two poll of polls.
The What UK Thinks poll of polls
The Financial Times’ Brexit poll tracker
9.55pm BST
21:55
The last time Britain had a referendum on membership of the European Union (or common market or European Economic Community [EEC], as we called it then), Remain won easily. It was 1975 and Britain had only been a member for two years, but the Labour prime minister, Harold Wilson, called a referendum because his party was fundamentally split over Europe. The government, the opposition, business, all of Fleet Street except the Morning Star and most of the establishment backed staying in and Yes to the common market won by 67% to 33%. Afterwards, asked to explain the result, Roy Jenkins, the home secretary, said: “The people took the advice of people they were used to following.”
Forty one years later another smooth-talking but rather slippery prime minister has asked the electorate to resolve what started as an internal party management problem. But if David Cameron thought that voters would meekly take instructions from the establishment as they did in the Jenkins era, he has had an awful shock. Cameron has lined up party leaders, the IMF, the head of the NHS, unions, the Bank of England, the OECD, the Institute of Fiscal Studies, and even the American president to tell Britain that voting to leave the EU would be a disaster, but the polls suggest all these official exhortations have had only a limited impact and, as polls close, Leave seem to have a chance of winning (although the poll of polls puts Remain ahead.)
Why has it turned out like this? In part it is because Cameron expected to be fighting a Leave campaign dominated by Ukip’s Nigel Farage and Conservative cabinet rank second-raters like Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling, but instead found himself up against Boris Johnson, the UK’s most charismatic politician, and Michael Gove, a Conservative intellectual powerhouse. More importantly, though, it is because the referendum has unleashed powerful forces normally constrained by first-past-the-post parliamentary politics. The referendum may have originated as an in-house Conservative party obsession, but now it has exposed deep divisions relating to age, class, education, geography and social outlook. For some, voting Leave was not just about Europe; it was a vote against the entire political class and the economic system they operate.
It has not been an edifying campaign; in fact, it has been a carnival of exaggeration and untruth. It has hard to recall any recent British election where mainstream figures have accused their opponents so often of lying - or, indeed, where they have been right to do so. But at last it is over. The polling stations are closing, and counting will begin soon.
If Britain votes to leave the EU, the consequences will be enormous. Experts say there could be a sharp economic shock, affecting not just the UK but Europe, and the global economy too. Britain would have to spend the next few years untangling itself from the EU, and negotiating new trade arrangements. All those countries that have said they want Britain to stay in would be horrified, and support for leaving in other EU member states could shoot up. The prospect of the EU itself breaking up within the next decade or so would suddenly look quite realistic. Donald Tusk, president of the European council, said Brexit could eventually lead to the downfall of Western political civilisation. It is probably safe to assume we won’t get that tonight (although if and when Western civilisation does collapse, the Guardian will of course be covering it with a live blog). There is also the very real chance that Scotland could respond by voting for independence. By comparison, the fact that Brexit would probably lead to Cameron resigning as prime minister quite soon and a Tory leadership contest is almost trivial.
And if we vote to remain in? Well, no one thinks UK politics would return to normal overnight. The contest has exacerbated divisions in the Conservative party which could take years to heal, and the prospect of some fundamental realignment of politics does not seem impossible. At the time Wilson thought his party-unifying wheeze had succeeded, but six years later Jenkins walked out to form the SDP.
So that’s what’s at stake. Tonight, though, will primarily be about the results, although we will be bringing the best reaction and analysis as it happens.
Here is my colleague Jessica Elgot’s guide to what to expect through the night.
Related: Referendum results guide: when to nap and the places to watch
If you’re at an election count, and you get an early steer as what the numbers are, do please get in touch. You can contact me on Twitter at @AndrewSparrow, DM me on Twitter if you can, or email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com. Or if you see anything that you think we should be including in the blog, do get in touch too. I normally monitor the comments BTL but that is going to be hard tonight, so it is best to get in touch via Twitter or email.