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EU referendum results: 84 pro-Brexit tories back Cameron as counting begins – live EU referendum results: first results in as 84 pro-Brexit MPs back Cameron – live
(35 minutes later)
11.28pm BST 12.01am BST
23:28 00:01
But Matthew Goodwin, the academic and Ukip expert, has heard different figures for Sunderland. Libby Brooks
Sunderland expected early. Forecast Brexit vote 53%. Ukip polled 30% here in 2014. Median income only £19,000 #euref #LSEBrexitVote With the ballot sampling under way, a pattern is now emerging in Glasgow, with middle-class areas voting decisively to remain while working-class areas like the east end are neck and neck with leave.
That would be roughly in line with the Hanretty expectations (see 10.12pm), pointing to a very close result nationwide. Estimates of turnout around the country are solidifying around 70% – higher than last month’s Scottish parliament elections but less than the 2014 independence referendum. Turnout in Scotland looks like being a wee bit less than England but, having urged the electorate to the polling booths four times in the last three years, this is no great surprise.
11.27pm BST I’m also told to look out for surprisingly high leave votes in solid SNP areas like Dundee and Inverclyde; perhaps prompting some soul-searching for the party’s high command.
23:27 Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, Ian Murray MP and SNP MP Anne McLaughlin at the Glasgow count pic.twitter.com/mhq4W1TtRt
Peter Walker 11.58pm BST
Friday’s UK newspapers showed two different approaches: either risk hinting at the result or else talk about the subject in much more general terms. 23:58
The Sun took the bolder option, its “Brex Mad” headline talking about the high turnout but then adding at the top, “Farage concedes to remain”. Jill Treanor
Friday's Sun front page:Brex Mad#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/3CdofAcooB Sterling has slipped back from its highs against the dollar on talk that the Newcastle result will only be a marginal win for Remain, while Sunderland is said to be strongly leave. The pound is now at $1.4897, having earlier hit $1.5018.
Metro took a similar approach, leading on Farage’s apparent concession. If Leave really win Sunderland by 20% and Remain win Newcastle by only small margin, upset back on the table.
Updated Metro front page:Farage: I think it's all over#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/lMMKh2RLSr My colleague Jill Treanor is on the trading floor at currency trader WorldFirst. Its chief economist and head of currency strategy Jeremy Cook said: “These markets are so thin, so skittish, [the pound] could really come off on any thing.”
The Times, meanwhile, played it fairly safe for a first edition, merely noting the closeness of the race. There is some chat that hedge funds had been doing their private polling to get one step ahead of the market. Cook too has heard about hedge fund exit polls and apparently people were being asked how they’d voted by financial analysts in some constituencies. “If a hedge fund had a scent of something sterling would have been hit a lot harder,” Cook says. A veteran of late night election campaigns, Cook says this is the classic time for rumours to start while count comes in. “If a hedge fund had a scent the market had mispriced this and a leave vote was likely sterling would be a lower than this”.
Friday's Times front page:Closest call for Britain#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/I4OhWIJtH3
The Daily Telegraph focused on the aftermath, and a letter from 84 pro-Brexit Tory MPs calling for David Cameron to stay.
Friday's Telegraph front page:Brexit MPs pledge loyalty to PM#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/PG9iSHi4bn
The Guardian and Mirror, by contrast, talk of a wider need to heal and reunite, both as a nation and with the EU.
Friday's Guardian:Party leaders reach out to dividednation after bitter EU referendum#tomorrowspaperstoday #EUref pic.twitter.com/wkptH9w3hQ
Friday's Daily Mirror front page:Project Reunite#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/s21zUqAk2I
The Daily Mail goes somewhat off-piste, calling investment bankers “parasites” for, um, doing what they do every single day, which is to speculate on how world events could move markets.
Friday's Daily Mail front page:The £100bn parasite bankers#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/OXShDSXvhK
The Financial Times also leads on the markets, though is understandably a bit less shocked.
Friday's FT:City watchdogs on high alert over expected post-poll trading frenzy#tomorrowspaperstoday #EUref pic.twitter.com/YXJm47nOVu
Only the Morning Star, so far, has veered from the EU line, with a story about foreign aid and private health companies.
Friday's Morning Star:Foreign aid cash lines pockets of health privateers#Tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/FSR4l8fUh4
11.21pm BST
23:21
Here is more from tonight’s YouGov poll.
Dis-United Kingdom? @YouGov's On-the-Day poll demonstrates how groups in society have such differing views on #EURef pic.twitter.com/lAoeamMtLe
Our On-the-Day poll shows challenge facing leaders. Majority of Con and nearly third of Lab voters support Leave. pic.twitter.com/ZHNNG8aZV5
11.18pm BST
23:18
Andrew Sparrow
This is from the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges.
If the sampling from Sunderland is correct, Remain have won. And by a good margin.
This is significant because, according to Professor Chris Hanretty’s data (see 10.12pm), Sunderland is an area where, if Remain and Leave are 50/50 nationwide, Leave should be six points ahead (because it is inherently more pro-Brexit).
Here is an extract from Hanretty’s blog.
If the result in Sunderland is very close, then Remain has probably won. I said that we should expect Leave to be six percentage points ahead in Sunderland.
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11.15pm BST 11.54pm BST
23:15 23:54
Randeep Ramesh The latest reports from Sunderland suggest (contrary to earlier claims) that Leave is heading for a big win.
Ballot boxes arrive in Bristol. Although the city was supposed to be one of the last to count votes at 6am, the Guardian has been told that it was likely to be earlier. Expect a vote from the supposedly pro-remain citadel by 4am. The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg says Leave could be on 62%.
#Bristol #EUref ballot boxes arrive pic.twitter.com/jmKCb4zyAc Laura K has a source that says Sunderland could be 62% Leave
11.13pm BST This is from Matthew Goodwin.
23:13 Hearing early indications of 66% Leave vote in Sunderland which would be a strong result for them. In models it's predicted to be 53% #euref
This is from the pollster Deborah Mattinson. And this is from Glen O’Hara, another academic.
Kettering turnout 76% - much higher than GE2015 if true.,, A very bad result for #Remain in Sunderland might not be catastrophic. We may just be more divided than we thought. But it isn't good.
11.12pm BST And this is from the BBC’s Richard Moss.
23:12 One set of counted votes in Sunderland #EUref. Leave piles generally bigger but by how much? pic.twitter.com/ARg5XXvGQ4
This is from the BBC’s Emma Simpson. 11.54pm BST
Sounds like a big turnout for both City of London and Westminster counts. As high as 82% and the Remain camp in confident mood. 23:54
11.10pm BST A minute’s silence in memory of Jo Cox has been held at various counts. Here is a video of one of them:
23:10
Pro-Brexit Theresa Villiers says she thinks Remain have won
Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary and one of the pro-Brexit cabinet ministers, has just told Sky News:
My instinct is that Remain have won.
11.08pm BST
23:08
Andrew Sparrow
This is from Sky’s Faisal Islam.
IN sources say two late poll shifts: 1. status quo reversion on economy 2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics
“Revulsion of leave tactics” is probably a reference to Nigel Farage’s “Breaking Point” poster, which may explain why people in the Vote Leave camp (which is not linked to Ukip) are so angry with Farage. (See 10.55pm.)
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11.08pm BST 11.53pm BST
23:08 23:53
Josh Halliday Nigel Farage has told reporters that the ‘Eurosceptic genie is out of the bottle’. Here is the video:
Sunderland is once again vying to be the first to declare its result – and expecting a high turnout. About 45% of the city’s 207,207 voters do so by postal vote. We’re told that a significant number of those votes had been cast by yesterday; and 78% of the postal vote was returned – one of highest on record. So if that is matched by voters in the polling booth then the turnout here could be very high indeed. 11.51pm BST
They're just showing off now #EUref #sunderland #alwaysfirst pic.twitter.com/2YIOox9l4l 23:51
At a Leave.EU party in London, a cake shaped like a champagne bottle is waiting to be cut. John Crace has some more about the party – and its rather low turnout – in his politics sketch.
11.49pm BST
23:49
This is from the BBC’s Nick Eardley.
Vote Leave source says samples so far in Glasgow and Falkirk better than expected for them #EUref
11.46pm BST
23:46
Henry McDonald
Alasdair McDonnell, the SDLP MP for South Belfast, has told the Guardian the turnout in his constituency is “touching” 70%. The Social Democratic and Labour party MP said he is hoping in Northern Ireland the final vote could be 60-40 for remain.
Speaking inside the Titanic visitor centre, where the votes from the four Belfast constituencies are being counted, McDonnell said the SDLP wanted “to avoid turning the referendum into a traditional Orange versus Green contest”. He added: “We wanted this to be a civic campaign that cut across the traditional political divide. We had good meetings with the Ulster Unionists and a pro-EU business breakfast. The remain vote is a cross-community vote.”
He declined to speculate on the future of the pro-Brexit Northern Ireland secretary Theresa Villiers, who has conceded defeat on Sky News.
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11.07pm BST 11.46pm BST
23:07 23:46
Nick Fletcher On Sky News Nigel Farage has just given what sounded a bit like a concession speech (even though he insisted that was not what it was.) I will post the key quotes in a moment.
The pound has hit another new high for the year (the highest since December in fact) of $1.5018. Here’s how it spiked after the polls closed: 11.43pm BST
Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, said: “While we expect further upside for the pound if the unofficial exit poll is correct and remain have won the referendum, the focus in the markets could shift to the margin of victory. An 8% margin of victory, as suggested by the Ipsos Mori poll, would probably be considered a big enough margin to put the Brexit issue to bed for many years, which could give a substantial boost to risky assets in the coming hours. However, anything below a 5% margin may not be considered wide enough to reduce Brexit uncertainty, which could limit enthusiasm for a pound and risk rally.” 23:43
The first result is in, from Gibraltar. It is a massive vote for Remain.
Remain: 19,322
Leave: 823
Remain were always going to do well in Gibraltar. Gibraltarians worry that, if the UK were to leave the EU, crossing the border into Spain would become much more difficult - a vital issue for the many people who need to cross it every day.
11.41pm BST
23:41
Ben Quinn
Douglas Carswell, Ukip’s only MP, has fired yet another coded salvo at the leader of his own party, emphasising that he would like to see a party after the referendum that was “optimistic” about change and not go back to the 1950s.
Asked what the future of Ukip would be if the referendum result was for remain, he said he believed there would be many people after the campaign “in all parties” who perhaps feel that the leaders of their parties “have more in common” with each other than with ordinary people.
“They perhaps feel that the leaders of their parties on the issue of Europe and many other things have more in common with one another in Westminster than they do with ordinary folk across the country,” Carswell told the BBC.
The MP has frequently clashed with Farage in the past and at one point last year called on him to resign in order to draw a line under its image.
“I think many people will conclude that politics is a cartel and that we need to break that cartel and we need new upstart parties like Ukip to break that cartel. If Ukip is an optimistic party that wants change and that looks to reshape the country for 2030, 2040, not go back to 1950, we can be that change.”
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11.03pm BST 11.37pm BST
23:03 23:37
Steven Morris Helena Bengtsson
The BBC’s Mark Hutchings has tweeted the latest on postal votes from Flintshire in north Wales: Contrary to what you might be thinking, the UK may not be the most Eurosceptic of the EU’s member states. Helena Bengtsson has this:
86 per cent of postal votes sent out in Flintshire have been returned - the highest on record. #bbceuref Despite Britain teetering on the edge of Brexit, polling suggests it may not be the most Eurosceptic state in the EU. A poll of 10,000 Europeans across 10 countries by Pew Research earlier this year found that a majority of people felt unfavourably towards the union in both Greece (71%) and France (61%). Spain also had a higher proportion of unfavourable people (49%) than the UK (48%) did.
Related: Is Britain the most Eurosceptic country?
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11.03pm BST 11.37pm BST
23:03 23:37
This is from Peter Spiegel, the FT’s news editor. This is from Sky’s data expert Harry Carr.
Sources briefed on hedge fund exit polls told me they had similar 52-48 result for Remain as of late afternoon https://t.co/fWk5qpoqSz Turnout so far suggests overall turnout of roughly 70% - winning line therefore roughly 16.25 million votes
11.01pm BST The general election turnout was 66%.
23:01
Mark Tran
Mark Tran is in Wandsworth, where the postal vote turnout was 83.6% as of 9pm – 47,510 sent out and 39,717 returned. He has also tweeted a picture from the count:
Emptying ballot boxes in Wandsworth as the count picks up momentum #EUreferendum pic.twitter.com/zORkNGKG0w
11.00pm BST
23:00
This is from Ipsos MORI’s Bobby Duffy.
Our polling over final days: 51% Remain on Tues, 54% on Weds and 54% again on polling day #EUref pic.twitter.com/P50BzjAevO
10.59pm BST
22:59
Ipsos MORI poll gives remain an 8-point lead
Ipsos MORI have released some new polling figures. These are from a poll that finished today.
Ipsos MORI (#EUref on the day):REMAIN 54 (+2)LEAVE 46 (-2)Changes vs earlier today*** ALSO NOT AN EXIT POLL ***#Brexit #EUreferendum
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10.56pm BST
22:56
Counting has started in Birmingham and London. Don’t know when results will come in? Here’s our handy guide to give you all the details.