This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen
on .
It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
Tony Abbott suggests the mining industry should demonstrate their gratitude to Ian Macfarlane – politics live
Tony Abbott suggests the mining industry should demonstrate their gratitude to Ian Macfarlane – politics live
(35 minutes later)
4.13am BST
04:13
Q: Minister, if treasury has done them and you know them, why can’t you tell us what they are?
Mathias Cormann:
As I just indicated to you, the costings are released in the budget papers in the usual way.
Q: Over 10 years?
Mathias Cormann:
I see on the day of the budget reply you don’t seem to be all that interested in the fact that there is a $62bn budget black hole in Labor’s costings.
4.11am BST
04:11
First question is of course the ten year company tax costing. Where is it? How come there’s a projection of the tobacco excise measure but not the company tax measure?
Mathias Cormann:
We have obviously costed all of the measures in the budget in the appropriate way, consistent with the costings conventions under the charter of budget honesty.
4.08am BST
04:08
Finance minister Mathias Cormann is up now in the Blue Room on the subject of Labor and black holes ahead of the Shorten budget-in-reply. Black holes and unfunded spending commitments.
Cormann is outlining various questions Shorten must answer in his address tonight. We’ll be into the questions Cormann will answer shortly. The questions from journalists.
4.02am BST
04:02
On 3AW, the radio host Neil Mitchell joined the quest to find out how much the company tax cut will cost on the wireless earlier this morning. Mitchell’s a determined fellow, but he didn’t have much luck either. The treasurer told him he could “look it up.” Scott Morrison left out the bit about the costing not being there explicitly if you do look it up. Here’s the exchange.
Q: And what’s it going to cost over the 10 years?
Scott Morrison:
Well, I’ve said it’s incorporated into that ...
Q: I’m sorry, I haven’t got the budget in front of me. What is it?
Scott Morrison:
Well, I’ll let you look it up mate.
Q: Why?
Scott Morrison:
I’m sure I’ll be able to deal with it in Question Time later today.
Q: Why do I have to look it up?
Scott Morrison:
Because that’s what’s in there. The underlying cash balance incorporates all of it, it stays in surplus over that period of time on the projection, and the point about that Neil, over ten years ...
Q: Why can’t we just tell people?
Scott Morrison:
You can make all sorts of projections which the Labor party found out to be very rubbery at the other end.
Ahead of the budget, the ratings agency Moody’s observed the government would need both expenditure cuts and revenues measures to get the budget back into shape. That advice is off the government’s script. The government says we don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem, so Moody’s observations weren’t all that helpful.
Post budget, the agency has issued a new assessment about the path back to surplus. It isn’t sounding convinced about the government’s direction.
Here’s the statement:
Moody’s Investors Service says that the Australian government will face challenges in achieving the objective of fiscal consolidation outlined in its FY2017 budget in view of an environment of subdued nominal GDP growth and given sizeable spending obligations.
Moody’s notes that successive revisions by governments towards more persistent deficits in recent years highlight the difficulties in curbing spending and, overall, expects the government’s debt burden to rise somewhat higher.
A slower pace of fiscal consolidation will leave public finances vulnerable to negative shocks, particularly to a potential marked downturn in the housing sector and a reversal in current favorable external financing conditions.
Moody’s sees a mixed economic environment for the FY2017 budget, and while forecasting robust real GDP growth at around 2.5% during FY2017, also expects lackluster nominal growth, weighed down by muted corporate profitability and wage growth, which will adversely affect budget outcomes.
This expected modest nominal level of GDP growth will challenge the government’s revenue projections. Revenues have undershot previous projections, partly because of the fall in commodities prices and its impact on profits and wages. With the adjustment to these lower prices still underway, profit tax and income tax revenues are likely to grow only modestly in the next few years.
The rise in the tobacco excise, the restriction on tax advantages on superannuation contributions, and the clampdown on tax avoidance will be – as highlighted in the budget – the main sources of increases in revenue. But, the combined total for the expected additional revenues over the next four years will be offset by various tax rebates as part of the Ten Year Enterprise Tax plan and other changes to superannuation taxation.
Limits to the effectiveness of spending restraint are further evident. With education, health, social security and welfare accounting for around 60% of total spending, achieving significant expenditure restraint will be challenging and commitments in these areas risk largely offsetting efficiency savings.
At the same time, the unfavorable upward trend in Australia’s debt is mitigated by a high level of debt affordability, with interest payments amounting to around 4% of revenues, although this marks a higher level compared with ten years ago. In an environment of low interest rates in domestic markets and given favorable external financing conditions, affordability will likely remain high, although vulnerable to a change in financing conditions.
3.42am BST
03:42
Down in the House, the former speaker Anna Burke has bid farewell to politics with a side swipe at Labor on asylum policy. She said something needs to be done about offshore detention and the public wants something done about it. Her colleague Laurie Ferguson is taking his turn now.
In estimates, I can hear the Liberal senator Bill Heffernan roaring at the attorney general, George Brandis, in a committee. My colleague Gabi Chan is watching that and if there’s something we need to know, she’ll bring us up to speed.
Updated
at 4.13am BST
3.30am BST
3.30am BST
03:30
03:30
Politics this lunch time
Politics this lunch time
This morning has run like a careening bus, so let’s stop for a minute and take stock, even though the bus continues to swerve around us.
This morning has run like a careening bus, so let’s stop for a minute and take stock, even though the bus continues to swerve around us.
Today, Thursday:
Today, Thursday:
Onwards, upwards.
Onwards, upwards.
Updated
at 4.04am BST
3.04am BST
3.04am BST
03:04
03:04
If you’d like to view that exchange.
If you’d like to view that exchange.
.@EwenJonesMP crashes @CliveFPalmer's press conference. Full argument ensues. #auspol @SBSNewshttps://t.co/JiKhIt6mPm
.@EwenJonesMP crashes @CliveFPalmer's press conference. Full argument ensues. #auspol @SBSNewshttps://t.co/JiKhIt6mPm
3.02am BST
3.02am BST
03:02
03:02
Updated
at 3.54am BST
2.54am BST
2.54am BST
02:54
02:54
The Clive Palmer circus has touched down in another parliamentary courtyard. There are evidently more Senate candidates to announce. But the member for Herbert Ewen Jones has joined the spectacle today and decides to engage in a little sledging from the sidelines. Queensland Nickel is in his electorate.
The Clive Palmer circus has touched down in another parliamentary courtyard. There are evidently more Senate candidates to announce. But the member for Herbert, Ewen Jones, has joined the spectacle today and decided to engage in a little sledging from the sidelines. Queensland Nickel is in his electorate.
Ewen Jones:
Ewen Jones:
When are you giving back the money that’s gone to Palmer United from Queensland Nickel? What about the purchases you have made?
When are you giving back the money that’s gone to Palmer United from Queensland Nickel? What about the purchases you have made?
Clive Palmer:
Clive Palmer:
None of that is true.
None of that is true.
Ewen Jones:
Ewen Jones:
It is true.
It is true.
Clive Palmer:
Clive Palmer:
Of course it’s not true. You are just desperate to lose your seat.
Of course it’s not true. You are just desperate to lose your seat.
Ewen Jones:
Ewen Jones:
If I lose my seat ..
If I lose my seat ...
Clive Palmer:
Clive Palmer:
You know they spoke to you in October - I spoke to you in October and you told me to get stuffed, the government wouldn’t put any money in. That was in 2015.
You know they spoke to you in October – I spoke to you in October and you told me to get stuffed, the government wouldn’t put any money in. That was in 2015.
Ewen Jones:
Ewen Jones:
This is your company, Clive.
This is your company, Clive.
Clive Palmer:
Clive Palmer:
The Australian government is a disgrace. There’s 14,000 workers in Whyalla, why don’t you go down there and get the government to stop those people losing their jobs.
The Australian government is a disgrace. There’s 14,000 workers in Whyalla. Why don’t you go down there and get the government to stop those people losing their jobs?
Ewen Jones:
Ewen Jones:
I am looking after Townsville.
I am looking after Townsville.
Clive Palmer:
Clive Palmer:
You are looking after yourself, nobody else. You don’t look after anybody else and you will soon be unemployed.
You are looking after yourself, nobody else. You don’t look after anybody else and you will soon be unemployed.
Ewen Jones:
Ewen Jones:
And unemployable. I am happy to be unemployed. I am happy to be unemployed if it means you ...
And unemployable. I am happy to be unemployed. I am happy to be unemployed if it means you ...
One of the new Palmer candidates, to Jones:
One of the new Palmer candidates, to Jones:
Goodbye, Ewen.
Goodbye, Ewen.
Would you like a tissue?
Would you like a tissue?
Updated
at 3.49am BST
2.44am BST
2.44am BST
02:44
02:44
Paul Karp
Paul Karp
Still in other chambers, finance officials have revealed that taking university fee deregulation out of the budget has saved $1.5bn, because the government will be lending less in HELP debt as a result.
Still in other chambers, finance officials have revealed that taking university fee deregulation out of the budget has saved $1.5bn because the government will be lending less in HELP debt as a result.
Deferring removal of the student loan fees by a year will save about $0.5bn.
Deferring removal of the student loan fees by a year will save about $0.5bn.
Labor’s Penny Wong asked for a breakdown for savings, but the finance minister Mathias Cormann directed further questions to the education portfolio. “Why don’t you just say ‘because we’re cutting funding from universities?” Wong asked.
Labor’s Penny Wong asked for a breakdown of savings but the finance minister, Mathias Cormann, directed further questions to the education portfolio. “Why don’t you just say, ‘because we’re cutting funding from universities’?” Wong asked.
(A direct answer to a direct question? Dream on - this is a committee.)
(A direct answer to a direct question? Dream on – this is a committee.)
2.34am BST
02:34
Ben Doherty
In other chambers, the president of the the Australian human rights commission, Professor Gillian Triggs, has told Senate estimates this morning asylum seekers and refugees on Manus Island and Nauru should be moved to a “safer place”.
“Our position at the AHRC is that because of the prolonged detention on these two islands, the failure to provide a durable solution or settlement, coupled with the particularly poor and dangerous conditions, means that they must be moved to a safer place for settlement,” Triggs told an estimates hearing this morning.
Her comments follow a call from the United Nations high commissioner for refugees for those held in Australia’s offshore detention regime to be moved to “humane conditions”. Two refugees on Nauru have self-immolated in the past eight days. And last week, PNG’s Supreme Court ruled that the detention on Manus Island is illegal and must be ended.
Asked if a safer place for settlement meant moving people to Australia, Triggs said matters of policy were for the government to decide, but that Australia “seems to be a logical step particularly in light of the Supreme Court decision”.
Among broader concerns for the physical safety and mental health of those in offshore detention, Triggs said she was particularly concerned for homosexual people on Manus and Nauru, where homosexuality is illegal.
“A particular couple on Nauru, we are told, are fearful of leaving their living quarters because they are fearful of being attacked. For people of a different sexual orientation, it is a difficult, distressing and potentially dangerous situation.”
Australia sending homosexual people to a place where they could face violence, discrimination, criminal charges, or persecution for their sexuality could be regarded as ‘refoulement’, a breach of Australia’s international legal obligations, Triggs said.
2.25am BST
02:25
Given I was highly truncated in my coverage of the Turnbull interview to ensure we got across the full range of issues – I skipped through to the nub which was the medium-term outlook – it is actually worth posting the full section on company tax costings, just so you get the full journey, which was, as noted, somewhat inelegant.
SPEERS: So, the company tax plan: what is it going to cost over 10 years?
TURNBULL: Well we have not – the Treasury has not identified the dollar cost of that particular item.
SPEERS: What not?
TURNBULL: Let me just go on. What is has does is set out a medium-term outlook in which, which takes account of the company tax cut and of course all the other tax arrangements. So, it takes a number of assumptions including the 10-year cuts to company tax which at the end of that period sees all companies paying 25% tax and as you can see from the budget papers is shows the budget returning to balance which is where is should be. Which is where we seek to bring it.
SPEERS: What price? This cut to company tax. I mean surely you’ve modelled this, there’s need some consideration on what it costs?
TURNBULL: The Treasury has modelled that.
SPEERS: So, what’s the cost?
TURNBULL: Well the Treasury has modelled that and set out in the budget, showing in the medium-term outcome.
SPEERS: I’m asking about the 10-year – you put a 10-year plan in the budget, what’s the cost?
TURNBULL: All of those costs are taken into account in the medium-term outlook and it’s set out.
SPEERS: What is the cost?
TURNBULL: Well, it’s set out there. You can see the outcome.
SPEERS: I can’t see it in the budget?
TURNBULL: You can.
SPEERS: What the 10-year figure is.
TURNBULL: You can see it there. The budget outcome, the balance over to 26-27 is set out there on page 3-11 on budget paper 1.
SPEERS: And what’s the figure?
TURNBULL: Well you can see it there. It shows the budget returning to balance.
SPEERS: Doesn’t say what the cost is though, not the budget returning to balance. What’s the cost of your company tax plan?
TURNBULL: The cost of the plan is set out in the medium-term outlook and shows the budget returning to balance.
SPEERS: So what is it? I don’t understand what the cost is? What’s it going to cost taxpayers to cut the company tax rate to 25%?
TURNBULL: Well, what it ensures is that we’ll have stronger jobs and growth. David, you’re asking for a ...
SPEERS: Dollar figure.
TURNBULL: No, look lets be quite clear. What the Treasury does and every budget does this, is set out very detailed itemised assumptions over four years. Ok, that’s why they’re called the forward estimates. And then they make their assumptions going out for 10 years and they set out what they call the mediu- term outlook and that medium-term outlook takes into account assumptions which include the 10-year enterprise tax plan which will drive jobs and growth over those 10 years. And is clearly affordable, lives within our means.
SPEERS: Well how do we know it’s affordable? How is it clearly affordable, what does it afford, what does it cost? It’s pretty simple question, prime minister.
TURNBULL: David, what you’re asking is …
SPEERS: The cost …
TURNBULL: ... for me to unpick every single line item of those assumptions going out to 26-27 and the budget papers do not do that –
SPEERS: I’m not, I’m just asking what the overall cost is. This is not a difficult question.
TURNBULL: David. David, I’m not going to add to the detail that is in the budget papers, and the budget papers set out.
SPEERS: Then why put a 10-year plan in the budget papers? Why not just put the four-year plan in the budget papers?
TURNBULL: Because what we, well, the budget papers set out a medium-term outlook and they do that every budget. And they make assumptions about tax rates, they make assumptions about GDP, they make assumptions about commodity prices. And of course, the further out they go, you know, the, the, there is a – the longer, further out you forecast, there is more uncertainty. One of the certain assumptions that is in the medium-term outlook is of course the policy which will be legislated to reduce company tax, down to 25% over 10 years.
SPEERS: The economist Chris Richardson reckons it’s about $55bn …
TURNBULL: Well look, he may well may be right. He may well be right. He may well be right in the dollars of 26-27. I mean, again, this is, you see. People can –
SPEERS: Let’s talk about today’s dollars before people get too confused on, in factoring in inflation. But $55bn is about right?
TURNBULL: No, I’m not. I don’t, look. What I’m saying to you is, we know what it will cost over the forward estimates, which is in excess of $5bn as Scott Morrison has said. And economists like Chris Richardson can make assumptions and they can, you know, work them out and they can forecast them just as the Treasury has done, but what the Treasury does, and this is, I’ve got to be very clear about this, they do this every year. We’re not doing anything differently. They provide very detailed, itemised assumptions over four years and then they say, ‘Our best forecast of what the budget is going to look like over the decade, over the medium-term outlook is as follows, and you can see there it sets out –
SPEERS: But you’re the one who has made this 10-year commitment and you’ve put it in the budget –
TURNBULL: Can I just say to you, I’m not confirming or commenting on Chris Richardson other than to say, he’s a former Treasury economist and no doubt you should heed what his advice is. It may or may not be correct.
Updated
Updated
at 2.40am BST
at 3.44am BST
2.17am BST
02:17
Show us the money, prime minister
Down in the House, Labor is going to town on this morning’s Sky interview with the prime minister, which was, as they say in the classics, untidy.
The shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has moved that the House notes that “in an extraordinary interview with David Speers on Sky News this morning”:
The motion condemns the prime minister ..
The government has gagged the motion. They are voting now.
2.04am BST
02:04
All today needed was a bit of George W Bush and Paula and the bounty of the internet delivers.
Updated
at 2.08am BST
1.59am BST
01:59
One of the many reasons to love the Canberra political blogger Paula Matthewson.
Oops, found this as I was looking for a budget image https://t.co/D1b8sIY1fQ ping @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/tJqDW34vOw
Updated
at 2.08am BST
1.50am BST
01:50
Downstairs, the Labor leader Bill Shorten is giving the colleagues a pep talk ahead of tonight’s budget in reply speech. From the context of the remarks I suspect Shorten is at the Labor women’s caucus but I don’t know that for sure.
Bill Shorten:
Today is not an election launch ... but what I can promise this group is when it comes to the unequal treatment of women, we understand them.
What the conservatives pigeon hole as ‘women’s issues’ are all our issues.
1.45am BST
01:45
Paul Karp
Finance department officials have confirmed, meanwhile, in Senate estimates that they didn’t begin drawing up timetable changes to move the budget a week forward to 3 May until the prime minister announced it on 21 March. Officials said they began to think about the move because of public speculation but didn’t change the timetable until the government had made a decision.
Finance minister Mathias Cormann, at the table, also won’t answer the question about whether he knew the budget had been moved to 3 May before the prime minister announced it. (You might remember Scott Morrison was caught somewhat on the hop.)
Mathias Cormann:
I was aware the budget would be on 3 May on the day the announcement was made.
Senator Penny Wong asked repeatedly if Cormann knew before Turnbull announced it, and said it was a “little embarrassing” he would not confirm he knew before. Cormann repeated formulations he was aware “on the day” it was announced.
Updated
at 2.09am BST
1.39am BST
01:39
Tony Abbott, in one, off-the-cuff speech (that was meant to be about reflecting on the manifest glory of the Abbott years), making a compelling case for a federal integrity body.
Updated
at 2.09am BST
1.34am BST
01:34
Abbott: it gets worse
Gabrielle Chan
While we are all still digesting Tony Abbott’s comments on Ian Macfarlane, there was a little nugget from his speech that we haven’t yet covered.
The former prime minister in the adjournment debate was also singing the praises of the integrity of the retiring Liberal senator Bill Heffernan as “the only member of this parliament I have ever met who never sought promotion”.
Abbott then moved to a personal anecdote. He told the parliament that as a “relatively new member of parliament”, he was invited to drinks by a well-known millionaire.
Tony Abbott:
As I was leaving he gave me an envelope and said, ‘That’s your Christmas present. When I opened it up it contained $5,000 in cash. I can tell you, the Abbott family in those days could have used that money, but it did not feel right. I rang Bill Heffernan for his advice and he said, ‘Once bought, always bought. Give it back and say to that person, “Please write out a cheque for the campaign.”’
There are two things about this story.
The first is the spectre of politicians being offered envelopes full of cash. What for? We don’t know. But remember he is talking about an experience at the beginning of this career. Not at its height.
The other is that while the cash was rejected, the “softer path” is to make a donation as a party donation. That is, the knowledge of an potential expectation tied to a specific member can be attached to a particular apparently generic donation made out to a political party.
If you want to feel just a bit sick, think about that.
Updated
at 2.11am BST
1.25am BST
01:25
David Speers has moved on to housing. What about housing prices in Sydney? Turnbull says this is a supply side question. The answer to housing affordability is not Labor’s negative gearing policy. That will smash the housing market, Turnbull says.
Speers then moves to the super changes in the budget, and how they might encourage wealthy people to redirect money out of super and towards negatively geared housing investments. Turnbull says super remains a very attractive investment.
Q: You don’t think they’ll be taking huge amounts of money out of superannuation?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Super will remain a very attractive investment.
Q: What are your plans for Sunday? Will you be visiting the governor general on Sunday?
Turnbull says he’ll be visiting the governor general “shortly” and there will be an election on 2 July.
