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Tony Abbott suggests the mining industry should demonstrate their gratitude to Ian Macfarlane – politics live Tony Abbott suggests the mining industry should demonstrate their gratitude to Ian Macfarlane – politics live
(35 minutes later)
4.47am BST
04:47
Martial arts by meme. What on earth has happened to Bill Shorten’s head?
Bill Shorten needs to explain how his higher taxes are not going to hurt jobs & growth https://t.co/lbq5WvhpBr pic.twitter.com/mZ07FlZhM4
The other day I described something as dank to my 17 year old. She looked at me in total disgust. “Never say that again, Mum” was the advice. I tried to tell her that’s what old people now say in an effort to look hip. She left the room.
4.39am BST
04:39
If you are wondering why I’m light on for Magic Mike this morning, he’s tied up with a task. He’s back through the course of this afternoon and evening – and of course we’ll go right through til stumps on the budget in reply speech. All aboard the black hole express. Question time is just over the horizon, crouching tiger, hidden dragon. Soon there’ll be martial arts in the tree line.
4.26am BST
04:26
Back to black holes. Just some free advice: if you are going to go the black hole, it’s best if you first cover up your own. Pro tip.
Someone should give me a job in a ministerial office.
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04:22
Paul Karp
Back in Senate estimates, the Greens LGBTI spokesman, Senator Robert Simms, has been asking the attorney general, George Brandis, about the marriage equality plebiscite, for which Brandis said plans are “well advanced”.
Brandis has ruled out suspending anti-discrimination laws for the same-sex marriage plebiscite campaign, as the Australian Christian Lobby managing director, Lyle Shelton, has advocated.
Brandis pointed out there were “very obvious practical problems with that – among them that most anti-discrimination laws in this country are laws of the states, not the commonwealth”.
Officials confirmed the plebiscite was expected to cost $160m, to come out of contingency funds. Brandis said no decision had been made about whether to give public funding to the “yes” and “no” campaigns but if there were, “of course, both sides would be entitled to equal treatment”.
Asked if ACL would get public funding, Brandis said “not necessarily” and who received funding would be determined after a decision was made to give it.
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04:19
Cormann is reminded quite correctly that the government is “rightly critical” about Labor’s 10-year spending commitments, so why doesn’t that same principle apply to the 10-year company tax cut commitment in the budget?
We are back to the medium term.
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4.17am BST
04:17
Phil Coorey from the Australian Financial Review is over today’s fan dance. He asks if it doesn’t insult the intelligence of voters when the major parties, both the Coalition and Labor, conflate various costings and pump up black hole figures 0n budget day and on budget-in-reply day?
Q: Doesn’t it insult the intelligence of voters that you are giving numbers that don’t stack up? You are doing it to Labor.
Mathias Cormann:
Don’t let Labor off the hook. Increased spending which is not funded leads to increased taxes, which hurts jobs and growth.
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4.13am BST4.13am BST
04:1304:13
Q: Minister, if treasury has done them and you know them, why can’t you tell us what they are?Q: Minister, if treasury has done them and you know them, why can’t you tell us what they are?
Mathias Cormann:Mathias Cormann:
As I just indicated to you, the costings are released in the budget papers in the usual way.As I just indicated to you, the costings are released in the budget papers in the usual way.
Q: Over 10 years?Q: Over 10 years?
Mathias Cormann:Mathias Cormann:
I see on the day of the budget reply you don’t seem to be all that interested in the fact that there is a $62bn budget black hole in Labor’s costings.I see on the day of the budget reply you don’t seem to be all that interested in the fact that there is a $62bn budget black hole in Labor’s costings.
4.11am BST4.11am BST
04:1104:11
First question is of course the ten year company tax costing. Where is it? How come there’s a projection of the tobacco excise measure but not the company tax measure? First question is of course the 10-year company tax costing. Where is it? How come there’s a projection of the tobacco excise measure but not the company tax measure?
Mathias Cormann:Mathias Cormann:
We have obviously costed all of the measures in the budget in the appropriate way, consistent with the costings conventions under the charter of budget honesty.We have obviously costed all of the measures in the budget in the appropriate way, consistent with the costings conventions under the charter of budget honesty.
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4.08am BST4.08am BST
04:0804:08
Finance minister Mathias Cormann is up now in the Blue Room on the subject of Labor and black holes ahead of the Shorten budget-in-reply. Black holes and unfunded spending commitments. The finance minister, Mathias Cormann, is up now in the Blue Room on the subject of Labor and black holes ahead of the Shorten budget-in-reply. Black holes and unfunded spending commitments.
Cormann is outlining various questions Shorten must answer in his address tonight. We’ll be into the questions Cormann will answer shortly. The questions from journalists.Cormann is outlining various questions Shorten must answer in his address tonight. We’ll be into the questions Cormann will answer shortly. The questions from journalists.
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4.02am BST4.02am BST
04:0204:02
On 3AW, the radio host Neil Mitchell joined the quest to find out how much the company tax cut will cost on the wireless earlier this morning. Mitchell’s a determined fellow, but he didn’t have much luck either. The treasurer told him he could “look it up.” Scott Morrison left out the bit about the costing not being there explicitly if you do look it up. Here’s the exchange. On 3AW, the radio host Neil Mitchell joined the quest to find out how much the company tax cut will cost earlier this morning. Mitchell’s a determined fellow but he didn’t have much luck either. The treasurer told him he could “look it up”. Scott Morrison left out the bit about the costing not being there explicitly if you do look it up. Here’s the exchange.
Q: And what’s it going to cost over the 10 years?Q: And what’s it going to cost over the 10 years?
Scott Morrison:Scott Morrison:
Well, I’ve said it’s incorporated into that ...Well, I’ve said it’s incorporated into that ...
Q: I’m sorry, I haven’t got the budget in front of me. What is it?Q: I’m sorry, I haven’t got the budget in front of me. What is it?
Scott Morrison:Scott Morrison:
Well, I’ll let you look it up mate. Well, I’ll let you look it up, mate.
Q: Why?Q: Why?
Scott Morrison:Scott Morrison:
I’m sure I’ll be able to deal with it in Question Time later today.I’m sure I’ll be able to deal with it in Question Time later today.
Q: Why do I have to look it up?Q: Why do I have to look it up?
Scott Morrison:Scott Morrison:
Because that’s what’s in there. The underlying cash balance incorporates all of it, it stays in surplus over that period of time on the projection, and the point about that Neil, over ten years ... Because that’s what’s in there. The underlying cash balance incorporates all of it, it stays in surplus over that period of time on the projection and the point about that, Neil, over 10 years ...
Q: Why can’t we just tell people?Q: Why can’t we just tell people?
Scott Morrison:Scott Morrison:
You can make all sorts of projections which the Labor party found out to be very rubbery at the other end.You can make all sorts of projections which the Labor party found out to be very rubbery at the other end.
Updated
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03:5303:53
Ratings agency Moody's questions key budget projectionsRatings agency Moody's questions key budget projections
Ahead of the budget, the ratings agency Moody’s observed the government would need both expenditure cuts and revenues measures to get the budget back into shape. That advice is off the government’s script. The government says we don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem, so Moody’s observations weren’t all that helpful.Ahead of the budget, the ratings agency Moody’s observed the government would need both expenditure cuts and revenues measures to get the budget back into shape. That advice is off the government’s script. The government says we don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem, so Moody’s observations weren’t all that helpful.
Post budget, the agency has issued a new assessment about the path back to surplus. It isn’t sounding convinced about the government’s direction.Post budget, the agency has issued a new assessment about the path back to surplus. It isn’t sounding convinced about the government’s direction.
Here’s the statement:Here’s the statement:
Moody’s Investors Service says that the Australian government will face challenges in achieving the objective of fiscal consolidation outlined in its FY2017 budget in view of an environment of subdued nominal GDP growth and given sizeable spending obligations.Moody’s Investors Service says that the Australian government will face challenges in achieving the objective of fiscal consolidation outlined in its FY2017 budget in view of an environment of subdued nominal GDP growth and given sizeable spending obligations.
Moody’s notes that successive revisions by governments towards more persistent deficits in recent years highlight the difficulties in curbing spending and, overall, expects the government’s debt burden to rise somewhat higher.Moody’s notes that successive revisions by governments towards more persistent deficits in recent years highlight the difficulties in curbing spending and, overall, expects the government’s debt burden to rise somewhat higher.
A slower pace of fiscal consolidation will leave public finances vulnerable to negative shocks, particularly to a potential marked downturn in the housing sector and a reversal in current favorable external financing conditions. A slower pace of fiscal consolidation will leave public finances vulnerable to negative shocks, particularly to a potential marked downturn in the housing sector and a reversal in current favourable external financing conditions.
Moody’s sees a mixed economic environment for the FY2017 budget, and while forecasting robust real GDP growth at around 2.5% during FY2017, also expects lackluster nominal growth, weighed down by muted corporate profitability and wage growth, which will adversely affect budget outcomes. Moody’s sees a mixed economic environment for the FY2017 budget and, while forecasting robust real GDP growth at around 2.5% during FY2017, also expects lacklustre nominal growth, weighed down by muted corporate profitability and wage growth, which will adversely affect budget outcomes.
This expected modest nominal level of GDP growth will challenge the government’s revenue projections. Revenues have undershot previous projections, partly because of the fall in commodities prices and its impact on profits and wages. With the adjustment to these lower prices still underway, profit tax and income tax revenues are likely to grow only modestly in the next few years. This expected modest nominal level of GDP growth will challenge the government’s revenue projections. Revenues have undershot previous projections, partly because of the fall in commodities prices and its impact on profits and wages. With the adjustment to these lower prices still under way, profit tax and income tax revenues are likely to grow only modestly in the next few years.
The rise in the tobacco excise, the restriction on tax advantages on superannuation contributions, and the clampdown on tax avoidance will be – as highlighted in the budget – the main sources of increases in revenue. But, the combined total for the expected additional revenues over the next four years will be offset by various tax rebates as part of the Ten Year Enterprise Tax plan and other changes to superannuation taxation. The rise in the tobacco excise, the restriction on tax advantages on superannuation contributions and the clampdown on tax avoidance will be – as highlighted in the budget – the main sources of increases in revenue. But the combined total for the expected additional revenues over the next four years will be offset by various tax rebates as part of the Ten Year Enterprise Tax plan and other changes to superannuation taxation.
Limits to the effectiveness of spending restraint are further evident. With education, health, social security and welfare accounting for around 60% of total spending, achieving significant expenditure restraint will be challenging and commitments in these areas risk largely offsetting efficiency savings.Limits to the effectiveness of spending restraint are further evident. With education, health, social security and welfare accounting for around 60% of total spending, achieving significant expenditure restraint will be challenging and commitments in these areas risk largely offsetting efficiency savings.
At the same time, the unfavorable upward trend in Australia’s debt is mitigated by a high level of debt affordability, with interest payments amounting to around 4% of revenues, although this marks a higher level compared with ten years ago. In an environment of low interest rates in domestic markets and given favorable external financing conditions, affordability will likely remain high, although vulnerable to a change in financing conditions. At the same time, the unfavourable upward trend in Australia’s debt is mitigated by a high level of debt affordability, with interest payments amounting to around 4% of revenues, although this marks a higher level compared with 10 years ago. In an environment of low interest rates in domestic markets and given favourable external financing conditions, affordability will likely remain high, although vulnerable to a change in financing conditions.
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3.42am BST3.42am BST
03:4203:42
Down in the House, the former speaker Anna Burke has bid farewell to politics with a side swipe at Labor on asylum policy. She said something needs to be done about offshore detention and the public wants something done about it. Her colleague Laurie Ferguson is taking his turn now.Down in the House, the former speaker Anna Burke has bid farewell to politics with a side swipe at Labor on asylum policy. She said something needs to be done about offshore detention and the public wants something done about it. Her colleague Laurie Ferguson is taking his turn now.
In estimates, I can hear the Liberal senator Bill Heffernan roaring at the attorney general, George Brandis, in a committee. My colleague Gabi Chan is watching that and if there’s something we need to know, she’ll bring us up to speed.In estimates, I can hear the Liberal senator Bill Heffernan roaring at the attorney general, George Brandis, in a committee. My colleague Gabi Chan is watching that and if there’s something we need to know, she’ll bring us up to speed.
UpdatedUpdated
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3.30am BST3.30am BST
03:3003:30
Politics this lunch timePolitics this lunch time
This morning has run like a careening bus, so let’s stop for a minute and take stock, even though the bus continues to swerve around us.This morning has run like a careening bus, so let’s stop for a minute and take stock, even though the bus continues to swerve around us.
Today, Thursday:Today, Thursday:
Onwards, upwards.Onwards, upwards.
UpdatedUpdated
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3.04am BST3.04am BST
03:0403:04
If you’d like to view that exchange.If you’d like to view that exchange.
.@EwenJonesMP crashes @CliveFPalmer's press conference. Full argument ensues. #auspol @SBSNewshttps://t.co/JiKhIt6mPm.@EwenJonesMP crashes @CliveFPalmer's press conference. Full argument ensues. #auspol @SBSNewshttps://t.co/JiKhIt6mPm
3.02am BST3.02am BST
03:0203:02
UpdatedUpdated
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02:5402:54
The Clive Palmer circus has touched down in another parliamentary courtyard. There are evidently more Senate candidates to announce. But the member for Herbert, Ewen Jones, has joined the spectacle today and decided to engage in a little sledging from the sidelines. Queensland Nickel is in his electorate.The Clive Palmer circus has touched down in another parliamentary courtyard. There are evidently more Senate candidates to announce. But the member for Herbert, Ewen Jones, has joined the spectacle today and decided to engage in a little sledging from the sidelines. Queensland Nickel is in his electorate.
Ewen Jones:Ewen Jones:
When are you giving back the money that’s gone to Palmer United from Queensland Nickel? What about the purchases you have made?When are you giving back the money that’s gone to Palmer United from Queensland Nickel? What about the purchases you have made?
Clive Palmer:Clive Palmer:
None of that is true.None of that is true.
Ewen Jones:Ewen Jones:
It is true.It is true.
Clive Palmer:Clive Palmer:
Of course it’s not true. You are just desperate to lose your seat.Of course it’s not true. You are just desperate to lose your seat.
Ewen Jones:Ewen Jones:
If I lose my seat ...If I lose my seat ...
Clive Palmer:Clive Palmer:
You know they spoke to you in October – I spoke to you in October and you told me to get stuffed, the government wouldn’t put any money in. That was in 2015.You know they spoke to you in October – I spoke to you in October and you told me to get stuffed, the government wouldn’t put any money in. That was in 2015.
Ewen Jones:Ewen Jones:
This is your company, Clive.This is your company, Clive.
Clive Palmer:Clive Palmer:
The Australian government is a disgrace. There’s 14,000 workers in Whyalla. Why don’t you go down there and get the government to stop those people losing their jobs?The Australian government is a disgrace. There’s 14,000 workers in Whyalla. Why don’t you go down there and get the government to stop those people losing their jobs?
Ewen Jones:Ewen Jones:
I am looking after Townsville.I am looking after Townsville.
Clive Palmer:Clive Palmer:
You are looking after yourself, nobody else. You don’t look after anybody else and you will soon be unemployed.You are looking after yourself, nobody else. You don’t look after anybody else and you will soon be unemployed.
Ewen Jones:Ewen Jones:
And unemployable. I am happy to be unemployed. I am happy to be unemployed if it means you ...And unemployable. I am happy to be unemployed. I am happy to be unemployed if it means you ...
One of the new Palmer candidates, to Jones:One of the new Palmer candidates, to Jones:
Goodbye, Ewen.Goodbye, Ewen.
Would you like a tissue?Would you like a tissue?
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2.44am BST2.44am BST
02:4402:44
Paul KarpPaul Karp
Still in other chambers, finance officials have revealed that taking university fee deregulation out of the budget has saved $1.5bn because the government will be lending less in HELP debt as a result.Still in other chambers, finance officials have revealed that taking university fee deregulation out of the budget has saved $1.5bn because the government will be lending less in HELP debt as a result.
Deferring removal of the student loan fees by a year will save about $0.5bn.Deferring removal of the student loan fees by a year will save about $0.5bn.
Labor’s Penny Wong asked for a breakdown of savings but the finance minister, Mathias Cormann, directed further questions to the education portfolio. “Why don’t you just say, ‘because we’re cutting funding from universities’?” Wong asked.Labor’s Penny Wong asked for a breakdown of savings but the finance minister, Mathias Cormann, directed further questions to the education portfolio. “Why don’t you just say, ‘because we’re cutting funding from universities’?” Wong asked.
(A direct answer to a direct question? Dream on – this is a committee.)(A direct answer to a direct question? Dream on – this is a committee.)
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