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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Kenya 'at risk of fresh violence' | Kenya 'at risk of fresh violence' |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Further violence could erupt in Kenya unless a solution to the country's political crisis is found urgently, an international think tank has warned. | Further violence could erupt in Kenya unless a solution to the country's political crisis is found urgently, an international think tank has warned. |
| Armed groups on both the opposition and government sides are mobilising for fresh attacks, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG). | Armed groups on both the opposition and government sides are mobilising for fresh attacks, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG). |
| Its report calls for legal, electoral and constitutional reforms and for aid to be conditional on a peaceful result. | Its report calls for legal, electoral and constitutional reforms and for aid to be conditional on a peaceful result. |
| Ex-UN chief Kofi Annan has been leading mediation talks in Nairobi. | Ex-UN chief Kofi Annan has been leading mediation talks in Nairobi. |
| The two sides agree on a grand coalition in principle, but deadlock remains over how it should work in practice. | |
| Opposition leader Raila Odinga wants powers vested in a new post of prime minister - but this needs MPs to amend the constitution and is opposed by President Mwai Kibaki. | |
| The ICG report comes as Kenya's opposition warned it would relaunch mass protests in a week's time if the talks do not break the political deadlock. | The ICG report comes as Kenya's opposition warned it would relaunch mass protests in a week's time if the talks do not break the political deadlock. |
| Using aid | Using aid |
| Ethnic and political violence broke out after President Kibaki was declared the winner of December's presidential election. | |
| The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy International crisis group | The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy International crisis group |
| At least 1,000 people have been killed across the country and hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced. | At least 1,000 people have been killed across the country and hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced. |
| The ICG report warned "serious obstacles" to peace remained and made 12 recommendations. | The ICG report warned "serious obstacles" to peace remained and made 12 recommendations. |
| These included sanctions to be targeted at those responsible for inter-ethnic violence. | These included sanctions to be targeted at those responsible for inter-ethnic violence. |
| And the group said international aid should to be made dependent on a satisfactory outcome to negotiations. | And the group said international aid should to be made dependent on a satisfactory outcome to negotiations. |
| "The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy," said the report. | "The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy," said the report. |
| Roots of conflict | |
| In an interview with the BBC, the ICG's Donald Steinberg said he thought the negotiations to establish a transitional government were going quite well. | |
| "it's very important, however, that the negotiations go deeper than that," he said. | |
| Can opposition leader Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki govern together?"We are very concerned that the efforts to reach that short-term agreement come at the expense of very long-term and fundamental changes that need to occur. | |
| "If all we get is a short-term agreement on power-sharing and transitional arrangements, it's uncertain that the instigators of the violence will deem that as acceptable" and the violence might resume, he said. | |
| At the root of the violence, said Mr Steinberg, were the tribal divide-and-rule policies of Kenya's previous ruler, Daniel arap Moi, which had not been addressed under Mr Kibaki. | |
| The report noted that Kenya was the platform for relief operations in Somalia and Sudan and a haven for refugees from throughout the region. | The report noted that Kenya was the platform for relief operations in Somalia and Sudan and a haven for refugees from throughout the region. |
| The think tank also said Kenya was a vital regional trade hub and a key anchor for prospects of long-term stabilisation in Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. | The think tank also said Kenya was a vital regional trade hub and a key anchor for prospects of long-term stabilisation in Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. |
| It concluded: "The quicker a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Kenya is found, the better the prospects will be for the entire region. | It concluded: "The quicker a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Kenya is found, the better the prospects will be for the entire region. |
| "The alternative - a collapsed economy, the evisceration of the democratic process and ethnic and territorial conflict - would have severe consequences for the whole of east Africa, and well beyond." | "The alternative - a collapsed economy, the evisceration of the democratic process and ethnic and territorial conflict - would have severe consequences for the whole of east Africa, and well beyond." |