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Good cop, bad cop on North Korea? Washington plays the tough guy. Good cop, bad cop on North Korea? Washington plays the tough guy.
(about 11 hours later)
SEOUL — Differences between the United States and South Korea over their approach to North Korea are becoming increasingly apparent, and Seoul’s interest in exploring renewed contacts with its estranged Communist sibling could call into question the likely success of the Obama administration’s harder line.SEOUL — Differences between the United States and South Korea over their approach to North Korea are becoming increasingly apparent, and Seoul’s interest in exploring renewed contacts with its estranged Communist sibling could call into question the likely success of the Obama administration’s harder line.
No danger of a rift between the United States and South Korea exists yet, but there’s a saying in Korean that perfectly sums up their situation: same bed, different dreams. There is as of yet No danger of a rift between the United States and South Korea exists yet, but there’s a saying in Korean that perfectly sums up their situation: same bed, different dreams.
“The U.S. is going in one direction, and South Korea is going in the other,” said Choi Kang, vice president of the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, a respected Seoul think tank. “I think there may be some friction between the two sides.”“The U.S. is going in one direction, and South Korea is going in the other,” said Choi Kang, vice president of the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, a respected Seoul think tank. “I think there may be some friction between the two sides.”
Those differences have become evident in recent weeks as South Korea has made tentative moves toward rapprochement with the North, even raising the prospect of a summit between President Park Geun-hye and the North’s Kim Jong Un.Those differences have become evident in recent weeks as South Korea has made tentative moves toward rapprochement with the North, even raising the prospect of a summit between President Park Geun-hye and the North’s Kim Jong Un.
Meanwhile, the United States has toughened its position, imposing a new round of sanctions since the Sony Pictures cyberattack and threatening more, while President Obama predicts the eventual collapse of the “authoritarian” state. Meanwhile, the United States has toughened its position, imposing a new round of sanctions in the wake of since the Sony Pictures cyberattack and threatening more, while President Obama predicts the eventual collapse of the “authoritarian” state.
U.S. officials say they are not concerned that Park might meet Kim as Washington is trying to further isolate the North Korean leader. U.S. officials say they are not concerned that Park might meet Kim as at the same time Washington is trying to further isolate the North Korean leader.
“There is no daylight between us and South Korea,” Wendy Sherman, undersecretary of state for political affairs, said in Tokyo Friday after visiting Seoul.“There is no daylight between us and South Korea,” Wendy Sherman, undersecretary of state for political affairs, said in Tokyo Friday after visiting Seoul.
In fact, Washington was “completely supportive” of Park’s push for greater engagement and perhaps a summit, she said. “She has said that denuclearization is the topic for these discussions, and we agree that this is the priority,” Sherman said.In fact, Washington was “completely supportive” of Park’s push for greater engagement and perhaps a summit, she said. “She has said that denuclearization is the topic for these discussions, and we agree that this is the priority,” Sherman said.
But Park’s desire to reconnect with the North could significantly blunt the effects of America’s punitive sanctions. But Park’s desire to reconnect with the North could significantly blunt the effects of America’s punitive sanctions.There’s a saying in Korean: Same bed, different dreams.
The aphorism perfectly describes That pretty well sums up the situation that South Korea and the United States now find themselves in as they grapple with North Korea. They’re stuck in the same situation, but they increasingly have different ideas how to deal with it.
Those differences have become increasingly apparent in recent weeks as South Korea has made tentative moves towards rapprochement with its estranged sibling, even raising the prospect of a summit between President Park Geun-hye and the North’s Kim Jong Un.
Meanwhile, the United States has toughened its position, imposing a new round of sanctions in the wake of the Sony Pictures cyber attack and threatening more, while President Obama predicts the eventual collapse of the “authoritarian” state.
“The U.S. is going in one direction and South Korea is going in the other,” said Choi Kang, vice president of the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, a respected Seoul think-tank. “I think there may be some friction between the two sides.”
U.S officials acknowledge the different approaches, but they say they are not concerned that Park might meet Kim at the same time Washington is trying to further isolate him.
"We have such high confidence that President Park would stand firm with Kim Jong Un and give him a lecture on the need to denuclearize,” said one senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “That’s why we’re not that concerned about her efforts to jump-start this process.”
The Obama administration’s long-standing policy of “strategic patience” — basically, waiting out North Korea — is over, Choi said. “The Sony hacking was the beginning of the end for strategic patience,” he said. “Now it’s all about pressure and sanctions.”The Obama administration’s long-standing policy of “strategic patience” — basically, waiting out North Korea — is over, Choi said. “The Sony hacking was the beginning of the end for strategic patience,” he said. “Now it’s all about pressure and sanctions.”
But for South Korea, it’s more complicated.But for South Korea, it’s more complicated.
People here live in the specter — and within firing range — of a belligerent, highly militarized North. Among older Koreans, there remains a keen sense of being cut off from fellow Koreans, although that is fading with generational change.People here live in the specter — and within firing range — of a belligerent, highly militarized North. Among older Koreans, there remains a keen sense of being cut off from fellow Koreans, although that is fading with generational change.
Park, having taken a hard line against Kim when she assumed power two years ago, has noticeably relaxed her stance on North Korea recently.Park, having taken a hard line against Kim when she assumed power two years ago, has noticeably relaxed her stance on North Korea recently.
That perhaps reflects her domestic political realities, analysts say, pointing out that she’s entering the third year of her five-year term. With few successes to point to so far, they say, she could do with a boost from a summit, which generally has the effect of lessening fears of the North here. That perhaps reflects her domestic political realities, analysts say, pointing out that she’s now entering the third year of her five-year termso she needs to think about her legacy. With few successes to point to so far, they say, she could do with a boost from a summit, which generally has the effect of lessening fears of the North here.
“I am willing to meet anyone to ease this pain and for peaceful unification,” Park said in a rare news conference this month. “There are no preconditions, but North Korea needs to be open-minded and have sincere intentions.” “I am willing to meet anyone to ease this pain and for peaceful unification,” Park said in a rare news conference earlier this last month this month. “There are no preconditions, but North Korea needs to be open-minded and have sincere intentions.”
Seoul is pursuing a resumption of reunions between family members separated by the division of the Koreas, perhaps as soon as next month, but Pyongyang first wants an end to the sanctions imposed in 2010 after the North sank a Southern naval corvette, costing 50 lives. Seoul is now pursuing a resumption of reunions between family members separated by the division of the Koreas, perhaps as soon as next month, but Pyongyang first wants an end to the sanctions imposed in 2010 after the North sank a Southern naval corvette, costing 50 lives.
“If the South Korean government is genuinely interested in the humanitarian issue, it should first remove the blockage measure instead of making a fuss about separated families,” the regime said Friday in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.“If the South Korean government is genuinely interested in the humanitarian issue, it should first remove the blockage measure instead of making a fuss about separated families,” the regime said Friday in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
Certainly, North Korea doesn’t do anything for free. To secure the first summit between the two Koreas, in 2000, Kim Dae-jung’s administration paid $500 million to the North, and the price has apparently risen exponentially over the years.Certainly, North Korea doesn’t do anything for free. To secure the first summit between the two Koreas, in 2000, Kim Dae-jung’s administration paid $500 million to the North, and the price has apparently risen exponentially over the years.
In an 800-page memoir to be published next week, Park’s predecessor, Lee Myung-bak, writes that North Korea demanded an “absurd” $10 billion and almost a million metric tons in food aid in 2009 during discussions about a potential summit (which never happened). In an 800-page memoir to be published next week, Park’s predecessor, Lee Myung-bak, writes that North Korea demanded an “absurd” $10 billion and almost a million tonnes metric tons in food aid in 2009 during discussions about a potential summit (which never happened).
In private meetings this month, Ryoo Kil-jae, Park’s unification minister, has insisted that a summit will take place this year, according to participants, and has publicly said that the sanctions, which restricted Southern trade with the North, are on the table. In private meetings this month, Ryoo Kil-jae, Park’s unification minister, has insisted that a summit will take place this year, according to participants, and has publicly said that the sanctions, which restricted Southern trade with the North, are on the table. "If the [sanctions] are lifted through dialogue, we will be able to expect brisk South-North exchanges," he said at a “Doing Business in North Korea” conference in Seoul this week, aimed at encouraging investment on the other side of the border.
The divergence between the allies could hardly be more stark. With South Korea softening its position, President Obama struck a markedly hawkish tone when asked about North Korea in an interview with YouTube last week. The divergence between the allies could hardly be more stark. With South Korea softening its position, President Obama struck a markedly hawkish tone when asked about North Korea in an interview with YouTube last week month last week.
“It’s brutal and it’s oppressive,” he said, adding that the United States will keep ratcheting up the pressure on the North. “Over time, you will see a regime like this collapse.” “It’s brutal and it’s oppressive,” he said, adding that the United States will keep ratcheting up the pressure on the Norther. “Over time, you will see a regime like this collapse.” he said in comments that analysts suspect were the president’s gut reaction rather than a prepared response
There is certainly no talk here of collapse. Indeed, South Korean planning is premised on the idea of peaceful unification through dialogue, however historically incongruous that idea may seem.There is certainly no talk here of collapse. Indeed, South Korean planning is premised on the idea of peaceful unification through dialogue, however historically incongruous that idea may seem.
A “unification preparation committee” established by Park to run parallel with — or perhaps in competition with — the unification ministry has been meeting to draw up long-term plans for merging the two Koreas, including writing a “unification charter” and even drafting a new constitution. A “unification preparation committee” established by Park to run in parallel with — or perhaps in competition with — the unification ministry has been meeting to draw up long-term plans for merging the two Koreas, including writing a “unification charter” and even drafting a new constitution.
At a meeting on unification preparations this month, Park told her ministers to rally the public’s support for negotiations with North Korea, local media have reported. South Koreans have long been concerned about the impact that unification with their impoverished and technologically backward neighbor would have on their fast-paced, consumer-driven lifestyle, with government estimates suggesting that about $500 billion would be needed in the first 20 years. At a meeting on unification preparations earlier this month in January this month, Park told her ministers to rally the public’s support for negotiations with North Korea, local media have reported. South Koreans have long been concerned about the impact that unification with their impoverished and technologically backward neighbor would have on their fast-paced, consumer-driven lifestyle, with government estimates suggesting that about $500 billion would be needed in the first 20 years.
Park has been trying to emphasize the positive aspects of unification, talking about the “jackpot” that will come with a new market of 26 million new Korean-speaking consumers. Park has been trying to emphasize the positive aspects of unificationand change the public’s perception from the costs to the benefits, talking about the “jackpot” that will come with a new market of 26 million new Korean-speaking consumers. If Park is going to hold a summit any time, this year is considered a “golden” time to do it. She is in the middle of her term – it was at this stage in his presidency that Kim Dae-jung held the first ever inter-Korean summit in 2000 – so she has time to cement her legacy and reap some of the rewards from any summit. She will also avoid the risks of anything going awry too close to next year’s national assembly elections, when she will need to burnish the conservative party’s credentials.
But Cheong Seong-chang of the Sejong Institute, a pro-engagement think tank, said that despite the public posturing, Park did not seem overly eager for a summit.But Cheong Seong-chang of the Sejong Institute, a pro-engagement think tank, said that despite the public posturing, Park did not seem overly eager for a summit.
“They are trying to work on smaller things like reunions of separated families,” he said. “Once that happens, when inter-Korean relations improve, then we can talk about a summit. We have a deeply ingrained mistrust of North Korea.”“They are trying to work on smaller things like reunions of separated families,” he said. “Once that happens, when inter-Korean relations improve, then we can talk about a summit. We have a deeply ingrained mistrust of North Korea.”
Although there is a difference in mood between Seoul and Washington, it would not necessarily result in a difference in actions, said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. For both countries, denuclearization remains a necessary requirement for an improvement in relations with North Korea.Although there is a difference in mood between Seoul and Washington, it would not necessarily result in a difference in actions, said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. For both countries, denuclearization remains a necessary requirement for an improvement in relations with North Korea.
“The South Korean side is leaning forward on engagement right now, while the U.S. is leaning back. But these differences will only emerge if North Korea decides to come to the table,” he said.“The South Korean side is leaning forward on engagement right now, while the U.S. is leaning back. But these differences will only emerge if North Korea decides to come to the table,” he said.
Given North Korea’s reluctance to discuss, let alone give up, its nuclear program, that seems like a long shot. “The key to keeping the U.S. and South Korea on the same page,” Snyder said, “is North Korea’s seeming inability to sustain any kind of effective engagement with either side.”Given North Korea’s reluctance to discuss, let alone give up, its nuclear program, that seems like a long shot. “The key to keeping the U.S. and South Korea on the same page,” Snyder said, “is North Korea’s seeming inability to sustain any kind of effective engagement with either side.”