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Good cop, bad cop on North Korea? Washington plays the tough guy. Good cop, bad cop on North Korea? Washington plays the tough guy.
(about 5 hours later)
SEOUL — Differences between the United States and South Korea over their approach to North Korea are becoming increasingly apparent, and Seoul’s interest in exploring renewed contacts with its estranged Communist sibling could call into question the likely success of the Obama administration’s harder line.SEOUL — Differences between the United States and South Korea over their approach to North Korea are becoming increasingly apparent, and Seoul’s interest in exploring renewed contacts with its estranged Communist sibling could call into question the likely success of the Obama administration’s harder line.
There is as of yet no danger of a rift between the United States and South Korea, but there’s a saying in Korean that perfectly sums up their situation: Same bed, different dreams. No danger of a rift between the United States and South Korea exists yet, but there’s a saying in Korean that perfectly sums up their situation: same bed, different dreams.
“The U.S. is going in one direction, and South Korea is going in the other,” said Choi Kang, vice president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a respected Seoul think tank. “I think there may be some friction between the two sides.” “The U.S. is going in one direction, and South Korea is going in the other,” said Choi Kang, vice president of the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, a respected Seoul think tank. “I think there may be some friction between the two sides.”
Those differences have become evident in recent weeks as South Korea has made tentative moves toward rapprochement with the North, even raising the prospect of a summit between President Park Geun-hye and the North’s Kim Jong Un.Those differences have become evident in recent weeks as South Korea has made tentative moves toward rapprochement with the North, even raising the prospect of a summit between President Park Geun-hye and the North’s Kim Jong Un.
Meanwhile, the United States has toughened its position, imposing a a new round of sanctions in the wake of the Sony Pictures cyberattack and threatening more, while President Obama predicts the eventual collapse of the “authoritarian” state. Meanwhile, the United States has toughened its position, imposing a new round of sanctions since the Sony Pictures cyberattack and threatening more, while President Obama predicts the eventual collapse of the “authoritarian” state.
U.S. officials say they are not concerned that Park might meet Kim at the same time Washington is trying to further isolate him. U.S. officials say they are not concerned that Park might meet Kim as Washington is trying to further isolate the North Korean leader.
“There is no daylight between us and South Korea,” Wendy Sherman, under secretary of state for political affairs, said in Tokyo Friday after visiting Seoul. “There is no daylight between us and South Korea,” Wendy Sherman, undersecretary of state for political affairs, said in Tokyo Friday after visiting Seoul.
In fact, Washington was “completely supportive” of Park’s push for greater engagement and perhaps a summit, she said. “She has said that denuclearization is the topic for these discussions, and we agree that this is the priority,” Sherman said.In fact, Washington was “completely supportive” of Park’s push for greater engagement and perhaps a summit, she said. “She has said that denuclearization is the topic for these discussions, and we agree that this is the priority,” Sherman said.
But Park’s desire to reconnect with the North could significantly blunt the effects of America’s punitive sanctions.But Park’s desire to reconnect with the North could significantly blunt the effects of America’s punitive sanctions.
The Obama administration’s long-standing policy of “strategic patience” — basically, waiting out North Korea — is over, Choi said. “The Sony hacking was the beginning of the end for strategic patience,” he said. “Now it’s all about pressure and sanctions.”The Obama administration’s long-standing policy of “strategic patience” — basically, waiting out North Korea — is over, Choi said. “The Sony hacking was the beginning of the end for strategic patience,” he said. “Now it’s all about pressure and sanctions.”
But for South Korea, it’s more complicated.But for South Korea, it’s more complicated.
People here live in the specter — and within firing range — of a belligerent, highly militarized North. Among older Koreans, there remains a keen sense of being cut off from fellow Koreans, although that is fading with generational change.People here live in the specter — and within firing range — of a belligerent, highly militarized North. Among older Koreans, there remains a keen sense of being cut off from fellow Koreans, although that is fading with generational change.
Park, having taken a hard line against Kim when she assumed power two years ago, has noticeably relaxed her stance on North Korea recently.Park, having taken a hard line against Kim when she assumed power two years ago, has noticeably relaxed her stance on North Korea recently.
That perhaps reflects her domestic political realities, analysts say, pointing out that she’s entering the third year of her five-year term. With few successes to point to so far, they say, she could do with a boost from a summit, which generally has the effect of lessening fears of the North here.That perhaps reflects her domestic political realities, analysts say, pointing out that she’s entering the third year of her five-year term. With few successes to point to so far, they say, she could do with a boost from a summit, which generally has the effect of lessening fears of the North here.
“I am willing to meet anyone to ease this pain and for peaceful unification,” Park said in a rare news conference this month. “There are no preconditions, but North Korea needs to be open-minded and have sincere intentions.”“I am willing to meet anyone to ease this pain and for peaceful unification,” Park said in a rare news conference this month. “There are no preconditions, but North Korea needs to be open-minded and have sincere intentions.”
Seoul is pursuing a resumption of reunions between family members separated by the division of the Koreas, perhaps as soon as next month, but Pyongyang first wants an end to the sanctions imposed in 2010 after the North sank a Southern naval corvette, costing 50 lives.Seoul is pursuing a resumption of reunions between family members separated by the division of the Koreas, perhaps as soon as next month, but Pyongyang first wants an end to the sanctions imposed in 2010 after the North sank a Southern naval corvette, costing 50 lives.
“If the South Korean government is genuinely interested in the humanitarian issue, it should first remove the blockage measure instead of making a fuss about separated families,” the regime said Friday in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.“If the South Korean government is genuinely interested in the humanitarian issue, it should first remove the blockage measure instead of making a fuss about separated families,” the regime said Friday in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
Certainly, North Korea doesn’t do anything for free. To secure the first summit between the two Koreas, in 2000, Kim Dae-jung’s administration paid $500 million to the North, and the price has apparently risen exponentially over the years.Certainly, North Korea doesn’t do anything for free. To secure the first summit between the two Koreas, in 2000, Kim Dae-jung’s administration paid $500 million to the North, and the price has apparently risen exponentially over the years.
In an 800-page memoir to be published next week, Park’s predecessor, Lee Myung-bak, writes that North Korea demanded an “absurd” $10 billion and almost a million metric tons in food aid in 2009 during discussions about a potential summit (which never happened).In an 800-page memoir to be published next week, Park’s predecessor, Lee Myung-bak, writes that North Korea demanded an “absurd” $10 billion and almost a million metric tons in food aid in 2009 during discussions about a potential summit (which never happened).
In private meetings this month, Ryoo Kil-jae, Park’s unification minister, has insisted that a summit will take place this year, according to participants, and has publicly said that the sanctions, which restricted Southern trade with the North, are on the table.In private meetings this month, Ryoo Kil-jae, Park’s unification minister, has insisted that a summit will take place this year, according to participants, and has publicly said that the sanctions, which restricted Southern trade with the North, are on the table.
The divergence between the allies could hardly be more stark. With South Korea softening its position, President Obama struck a markedly hawkish tone when asked about North Korea in an interview with YouTube last week.The divergence between the allies could hardly be more stark. With South Korea softening its position, President Obama struck a markedly hawkish tone when asked about North Korea in an interview with YouTube last week.
“It’s brutal and it’s oppressive,” he said, adding that the United States would keep ratcheting up the pressure on the North. “Over time, you will see a regime like this collapse.” “It’s brutal and it’s oppressive,” he said, adding that the United States will keep ratcheting up the pressure on the North. “Over time, you will see a regime like this collapse.”
There is certainly no talk here of collapse. Indeed, South Korean planning is premised on the idea of peaceful unification through dialogue, however historically incongruous that idea may seem.There is certainly no talk here of collapse. Indeed, South Korean planning is premised on the idea of peaceful unification through dialogue, however historically incongruous that idea may seem.
A “unification preparation committee” established by Park to run in parallel with — or perhaps in competition with — the unification ministry has been meeting to draw up long-term plans for merging the two Koreas, including writing a “unification charter” and even drafting a new constitution. A “unification preparation committee” established by Park to run parallel with — or perhaps in competition with — the unification ministry has been meeting to draw up long-term plans for merging the two Koreas, including writing a “unification charter” and even drafting a new constitution.
At a meeting on unification preparations earlier this month, Park told her ministers to rally the public’s support for negotiations with North Korea, local media have reported. South Koreans have long been concerned about the impact that unification with their impoverished and technologically backward neighbor would have on their fast-paced, consumer-driven lifestyle, with government estimates suggesting that about $500 billion would be needed in the first 20 years. At a meeting on unification preparations this month, Park told her ministers to rally the public’s support for negotiations with North Korea, local media have reported. South Koreans have long been concerned about the impact that unification with their impoverished and technologically backward neighbor would have on their fast-paced, consumer-driven lifestyle, with government estimates suggesting that about $500 billion would be needed in the first 20 years.
Park has been trying to emphasize the positive aspects of unification, talking about the “jackpot” that will come with a new market of 26 million new Korean-speaking consumers.Park has been trying to emphasize the positive aspects of unification, talking about the “jackpot” that will come with a new market of 26 million new Korean-speaking consumers.
But Cheong Seong-chang of the Sejong Institute, a pro-engagement think tank, said that despite the public posturing, Park did not seem overly eager for a summit.But Cheong Seong-chang of the Sejong Institute, a pro-engagement think tank, said that despite the public posturing, Park did not seem overly eager for a summit.
“They are trying to work on smaller things like reunions of separated families,” he said. “Once that happens, when inter-Korean relations improve, then we can talk about a summit. We have a deeply ingrained mistrust of North Korea.”“They are trying to work on smaller things like reunions of separated families,” he said. “Once that happens, when inter-Korean relations improve, then we can talk about a summit. We have a deeply ingrained mistrust of North Korea.”
Although there is a difference in mood between Seoul and Washington, it would not necessarily result in a difference in actions, said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. For both countries, denuclearization remains a necessary requirement for an improvement in relations with North Korea.Although there is a difference in mood between Seoul and Washington, it would not necessarily result in a difference in actions, said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. For both countries, denuclearization remains a necessary requirement for an improvement in relations with North Korea.
“The South Korean side is leaning forward on engagement right now, while the U.S. is leaning back. But these differences will only emerge if North Korea decides to come to the table,” he said.“The South Korean side is leaning forward on engagement right now, while the U.S. is leaning back. But these differences will only emerge if North Korea decides to come to the table,” he said.
Given North Korea’s reluctance to discuss, let alone give up, its nuclear program, that seems like a long shot. “The key to keeping the U.S. and South Korea on the same page,” Snyder said, “is North Korea’s seeming inability to sustain any kind of effective engagement with either side.”Given North Korea’s reluctance to discuss, let alone give up, its nuclear program, that seems like a long shot. “The key to keeping the U.S. and South Korea on the same page,” Snyder said, “is North Korea’s seeming inability to sustain any kind of effective engagement with either side.”