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Ebola Slowing in Liberia, W.H.O. Says, but International Support Is Still Necessary Ebola Slowing in Liberia, W.H.O. Says, but International Support Is Still Necessary
(about 1 hour later)
GENEVA — Three months after declaring West Africa’s Ebola epidemic a global emergency, the World Health Organization said Wednesday that new infections in Liberia, one of the worst affected countries, appeared to be declining. But the organization also warned against complacency in international efforts to fight the disease.GENEVA — Three months after declaring West Africa’s Ebola epidemic a global emergency, the World Health Organization said Wednesday that new infections in Liberia, one of the worst affected countries, appeared to be declining. But the organization also warned against complacency in international efforts to fight the disease.
The health authorities in Liberia are reporting lower numbers of new infections; treatment centers in the capital, Monrovia, that once turned away victims now had unoccupied beds; and the number of burials of Ebola victims had started to drop, Dr. Bruce Aylward, the W.H.O. assistant director-general, told reporters in Geneva. The health authorities in Liberia are reporting lower numbers of new infections; treatment centers in the capital, Monrovia, that once turned away victims now have unoccupied beds; and the number of burials of Ebola victims has started to drop, Dr. Bruce Aylward, the W.H.O. assistant director-general, told reporters in Geneva.
“Do we feel confident that the response is now getting an upper hand on the virus? Yes, we are seeing a slowing of the rate of new cases very definitely” in Liberia, said Dr. Aylward, who is in charge of the operational response to the epidemic.“Do we feel confident that the response is now getting an upper hand on the virus? Yes, we are seeing a slowing of the rate of new cases very definitely” in Liberia, said Dr. Aylward, who is in charge of the operational response to the epidemic.
At least 13,703 people have been infected by the virus, all but 27 of them in the three worst affected countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, according to the latest estimates cited by Dr. Aylward. Nearly half of the total is in Liberia. At least 13,703 people have been infected by the virus, all but 27 of them in the three worst affected countries, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, according to the latest estimates cited by Dr. Aylward. Nearly half of the total is in Liberia.
About 5,000 of the infected are reported to have died of the disease, which Dr. Aylward said still has a mortality rate of around 70 percent in the three countries most afflicted.About 5,000 of the infected are reported to have died of the disease, which Dr. Aylward said still has a mortality rate of around 70 percent in the three countries most afflicted.
Despite the positive data from Liberia, Dr. Aylward was cautious. He expressed concern that infection rates could start to oscillate and that areas thought to have been purged of the disease could become reinfected. Despite the positive data from Liberia, Dr. Aylward was cautious. He expressed concern that infection rates could start to oscillate and that areas thought to have been purged of the disease could become re-infected.
“I am terrified that the information will be misinterpreted and people will start to think, ‘Oh, great, this is under control,’ ” he said. “That’s like saying your pet tiger is under control. This is a very, very dangerous disease.”“I am terrified that the information will be misinterpreted and people will start to think, ‘Oh, great, this is under control,’ ” he said. “That’s like saying your pet tiger is under control. This is a very, very dangerous disease.”
Just a few mishandled burials, Dr. Aylward said, could “start a whole new transmission chain and the disease starts trending upward again.”Just a few mishandled burials, Dr. Aylward said, could “start a whole new transmission chain and the disease starts trending upward again.”
The first death from Ebola in Mali last week underscored the danger that the disease will spill into neighboring countries. W.H.O. data shows new cases of infection in all but two of the districts in Guinea and Liberia that border Ivory Coast.The first death from Ebola in Mali last week underscored the danger that the disease will spill into neighboring countries. W.H.O. data shows new cases of infection in all but two of the districts in Guinea and Liberia that border Ivory Coast.
Dr. Aylward partly attributed the apparent easing in Liberia to aggressive efforts to establish safe burials of victims, who are most contagious at death.Dr. Aylward partly attributed the apparent easing in Liberia to aggressive efforts to establish safe burials of victims, who are most contagious at death.
He also said the Liberia government’s intensive public education campaign to minimize contact with the infected, and a rapid increase in the capacity of treatment centers to isolate patients, appeared to have helped. He also said the Liberian government’s intensive public education campaign to minimize contact with the infected, and a rapid increase in the capacity of treatment centers to isolate patients, appeared to have helped.
Fifteen treatment centers are now operating in the three worst hit countries, and another 22 should be functional by the end of November. Fifteen treatment centers are now operating in the three worst hit countries, and 22 more should be functional by the end of November.
Still, achieving a drop in day-to-day infection rates is not ending the epidemic, which Dr. Aylward called “a completely different ballgame.”Still, achieving a drop in day-to-day infection rates is not ending the epidemic, which Dr. Aylward called “a completely different ballgame.”
The better news from Liberia comes only two weeks after the W.H.O. warned the epidemic could produce 10,000 new cases every week by December. Dr. Aylward did not discard that assessment, but said it would be reviewed.The better news from Liberia comes only two weeks after the W.H.O. warned the epidemic could produce 10,000 new cases every week by December. Dr. Aylward did not discard that assessment, but said it would be reviewed.
The positive trend seen in Liberia should be taken as a sign that with the planned investments, “this virus can be stopped,” Dr. Aylward said. “But it’s going to take a very, very aggressive program of work to capitalize on those opportunities.”The positive trend seen in Liberia should be taken as a sign that with the planned investments, “this virus can be stopped,” Dr. Aylward said. “But it’s going to take a very, very aggressive program of work to capitalize on those opportunities.”
The Ebola virus, which has no confirmed cure, began to spread in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone in March. It is now considered one of the worst global health emergencies in modern times.The Ebola virus, which has no confirmed cure, began to spread in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone in March. It is now considered one of the worst global health emergencies in modern times.
Dr. Margaret Chan, the W.H.O.’s director-general, has spoken in increasingly dire terms about the Ebola outbreak and the need to stop it. She told an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council last month that the outbreak was “likely the greatest peacetime challenge that the United Nations and its agencies have ever faced.” Margaret Chan, the W.H.O.’s director general, has spoken in increasingly dire terms about the Ebola outbreak and the need to stop it. She told an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council last month that the outbreak was “likely the greatest peacetime challenge that the United Nations and its agencies have ever faced.”