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Ebola May be Slowing in Liberia, W.H.O. Says Ebola Slowing in Liberia, W.H.O. Says, but International Support Is Still Necessary
(about 9 hours later)
The World Health Organization said Wednesday that the spread of Ebola may be slowing in Liberia, one of the three West African countries most ravaged by the deadly virus. GENEVA — Three months after declaring West Africa’s Ebola epidemic a global emergency, the World Health Organization said Wednesday that new infections in Liberia, one of the worst affected countries, appeared to be declining. But the organization also warned against complacency in international efforts to fight the disease.
Dr. Bruce Aylward, the organization’s assistant director general, in a dial-in news conference from its Geneva offices, said that there had been a drop in the number of burials in Liberia and no increases in laboratory-confirmed cases. The health authorities in Liberia are reporting lower numbers of new infections; treatment centers in the capital, Monrovia, that once turned away victims now had unoccupied beds; and the number of burials of Ebola victims had started to drop, Dr. Bruce Aylward, the W.H.O. assistant director-general, told reporters in Geneva.
While Dr. Aylward cautioned that it was premature to draw conclusions, and that Ebola cases could rise in Liberia again, he appeared to be optimistic that the global effort to combat the outbreak was making headway. “Do we feel confident that the response is now getting an upper hand on the virus? Yes, we are seeing a slowing of the rate of new cases very definitely” in Liberia, said Dr. Aylward, who is in charge of the operational response to the epidemic.
“Do we feel confident that the response is now getting an upper hand on the virus?” he told reporters. “Yes, we are seeing slowing rate of new cases, very definitely” in Liberia. At least 13,703 people have been infected by the virus, all but 27 of them in the three worst affected countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, according to the latest estimates cited by Dr. Aylward. Nearly half of the total is in Liberia.
He said the organization’s latest figures, to be published later on its website, are 13,703 cases in total, with at least 5,000 deaths. Nearly all are in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. About 5,000 of the infected are reported to have died of the disease, which Dr. Aylward said still has a mortality rate of around 70 percent in the three countries most afflicted.
Dr. Aylward’s assertions on Liberia came amid a conspicuously low number of patients and many empty beds at Ebola treatment centers established in the country to handle the caseload. Despite the positive data from Liberia, Dr. Aylward was cautious. He expressed concern that infection rates could start to oscillate and that areas thought to have been purged of the disease could become reinfected.
Health officials say they have been confounded by these developments. “I am terrified that the information will be misinterpreted and people will start to think, ‘Oh, great, this is under control,’ ” he said. “That’s like saying your pet tiger is under control. This is a very, very dangerous disease.”
Dr. Aylward said the apparent improvement in Liberia might be partly attributable to an aggressive effort to establish safe burial practices for victims, who are most contagious at death. He also credited the government with educating people about the risks of contagion. But he also offered serious caveats. Just a few mishandled burials, Dr. Aylward said, could “start a whole new transmission chain and the disease starts trending upward again.”
“I am terrified that the information will be misinterpreted and people will start to think, ‘Oh great, this is under control,' ” he said. “That’s like saying your pet tiger is under control. This is a very very dangerous disease.” The first death from Ebola in Mali last week underscored the danger that the disease will spill into neighboring countries. W.H.O. data shows new cases of infection in all but two of the districts in Guinea and Liberia that border Ivory Coast.
Just a few carelessly handled burials, Dr. Aylward said, could “start a whole new transmission chain and the disease starts trending upward again.” Dr. Aylward partly attributed the apparent easing in Liberia to aggressive efforts to establish safe burials of victims, who are most contagious at death.
He also said the Liberia government’s intensive public education campaign to minimize contact with the infected, and a rapid increase in the capacity of treatment centers to isolate patients, appeared to have helped.
Fifteen treatment centers are now operating in the three worst hit countries, and another 22 should be functional by the end of November.
Still, achieving a drop in day-to-day infection rates is not ending the epidemic, which Dr. Aylward called “a completely different ballgame.”
The better news from Liberia comes only two weeks after the W.H.O. warned the epidemic could produce 10,000 new cases every week by December. Dr. Aylward did not discard that assessment, but said it would be reviewed.
The positive trend seen in Liberia should be taken as a sign that with the planned investments, “this virus can be stopped,” Dr. Aylward said. “But it’s going to take a very, very aggressive program of work to capitalize on those opportunities.”
The Ebola virus, which has no confirmed cure, began to spread in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone in March. It is now considered one of the worst global health emergencies in modern times.The Ebola virus, which has no confirmed cure, began to spread in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone in March. It is now considered one of the worst global health emergencies in modern times.
Dr. Margaret Chan, the W.H.O.'s director-general, has spoken in increasingly dire terms about the Ebola outbreak and the need to stop it. She told an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council last month that the outbreak was “likely the greatest peacetime challenge that the United Nations and its agencies have ever faced.” Dr. Margaret Chan, the W.H.O.’s director-general, has spoken in increasingly dire terms about the Ebola outbreak and the need to stop it. She told an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council last month that the outbreak was “likely the greatest peacetime challenge that the United Nations and its agencies have ever faced.”