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| Iain Duncan Smith defends use of statistics over benefits cap | Iain Duncan Smith defends use of statistics over benefits cap |
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| Iain Duncan Smith has said he was right to claim that benefit claimants subject to the new welfare cap were being forced into work, despite being criticised by the government statistics watchdog for making the assertion. | Iain Duncan Smith has said he was right to claim that benefit claimants subject to the new welfare cap were being forced into work, despite being criticised by the government statistics watchdog for making the assertion. |
| The work and pensions secretary said: "I have a belief I am right," as he published polling showing how popular the measure was with the public. He also denied claims that families subject to a cap would be made homeless, arguing that "the homelessness figures have hardly moved at all". | The work and pensions secretary said: "I have a belief I am right," as he published polling showing how popular the measure was with the public. He also denied claims that families subject to a cap would be made homeless, arguing that "the homelessness figures have hardly moved at all". |
| Duncan Smith was speaking on Radio 4's Today programme on the day a benefits cap trialled in four London boroughs was expanded across the country. The cap is set at just below £26,000 a household – around average earnings. Polling shows the move is the single most popular reform the government has made to the welfare system. | Duncan Smith was speaking on Radio 4's Today programme on the day a benefits cap trialled in four London boroughs was expanded across the country. The cap is set at just below £26,000 a household – around average earnings. Polling shows the move is the single most popular reform the government has made to the welfare system. |
| Results of the pilots released by the Department for Work and Pensions show 8,000 people were financially affected in the test areas, with many large families losing more than £100 a week. Only those in work, people entitled to a war widow(er) pension, disabled people and the sick are exempt. | Results of the pilots released by the Department for Work and Pensions show 8,000 people were financially affected in the test areas, with many large families losing more than £100 a week. Only those in work, people entitled to a war widow(er) pension, disabled people and the sick are exempt. |
| Duncan Smith has already been criticised by the Office for National Statistics for claiming the cap had led to 8,000 people finding work. He was told by the ONS it was not possible to find any causal link between the cap and those finding work. | Duncan Smith has already been criticised by the Office for National Statistics for claiming the cap had led to 8,000 people finding work. He was told by the ONS it was not possible to find any causal link between the cap and those finding work. |
| An unrepentant Duncan Smith told Today on Monday: "You cannot absolutely prove those two things are connected – you cannot disprove what I said. I believe this to be right. I believe we are already seeing people going back to work who were not going back to work until this group were capped." | An unrepentant Duncan Smith told Today on Monday: "You cannot absolutely prove those two things are connected – you cannot disprove what I said. I believe this to be right. I believe we are already seeing people going back to work who were not going back to work until this group were capped." |
| Pressed on claims made by Haringey council, one of the trial areas, that out of 740 households subject to the cap only 34 had found work, he said the BBC could always find politically motivated people to make that kind of remark. "We have not published evidence in this. I believe I am right," said Duncan Smith, pointing to evidence from jobcentres. | Pressed on claims made by Haringey council, one of the trial areas, that out of 740 households subject to the cap only 34 had found work, he said the BBC could always find politically motivated people to make that kind of remark. "We have not published evidence in this. I believe I am right," said Duncan Smith, pointing to evidence from jobcentres. |
| He added that the principle was simple, saying: "You cannot go on earning more money [while] out of work on benefits than those in work trying hard." | He added that the principle was simple, saying: "You cannot go on earning more money [while] out of work on benefits than those in work trying hard." |
| The government's own polling on the cap warns that the limited evidence it offers that people affected by the cap have moved into work should not be regarded as clear proof the policy is working. | The government's own polling on the cap warns that the limited evidence it offers that people affected by the cap have moved into work should not be regarded as clear proof the policy is working. |
| The report states that: "There is evidence that the policy has encouraged some claimants to take action to avoid the benefit cap before implementation" | The report states that: "There is evidence that the policy has encouraged some claimants to take action to avoid the benefit cap before implementation" |
| Of those claimants currently working and who knew about the cap, 61% had found a job after being notified that they would be affected. But the report says that "this does not show causation" - meaning that the claimants may have gone into work anyway. | Of those claimants currently working and who knew about the cap, 61% had found a job after being notified that they would be affected. But the report says that "this does not show causation" - meaning that the claimants may have gone into work anyway. |
| A spokesperson for Ipsos Mori confirmed the poll did not offer conclusive evidence that the cap was working. "It does not show causality. Iain Duncan Smith may be saying that this is what he believes to be the cause but he cannot say it offers proof." | A spokesperson for Ipsos Mori confirmed the poll did not offer conclusive evidence that the cap was working. "It does not show causality. Iain Duncan Smith may be saying that this is what he believes to be the cause but he cannot say it offers proof." |
| On the effects of the benefits cap on those facing high housing costs, Duncan Smith said: "We believe that in London there is plenty of accommodation and the vast majority of accommodation is available – a third of all rental accommodation in the private sector is available for people on social rents. | On the effects of the benefits cap on those facing high housing costs, Duncan Smith said: "We believe that in London there is plenty of accommodation and the vast majority of accommodation is available – a third of all rental accommodation in the private sector is available for people on social rents. |
| "The great talk about thousands being made homeless has not come true. The homeless figures have hardly moved at all." | "The great talk about thousands being made homeless has not come true. The homeless figures have hardly moved at all." |
| Duncan Smith said it was wrong for welfare claimants to live in houses where the rent is £50,000 or £100,000 a year, saying other families lived out of central London and commuted to work. | Duncan Smith said it was wrong for welfare claimants to live in houses where the rent is £50,000 or £100,000 a year, saying other families lived out of central London and commuted to work. |
| The reforms are due to save £275m in 2013-14 and £275m in 2014-15 (in cash terms) or £270m in 2013-14 and £265m in 2014-15 (in 2012-13 prices). | The reforms are due to save £275m in 2013-14 and £275m in 2014-15 (in cash terms) or £270m in 2013-14 and £265m in 2014-15 (in 2012-13 prices). |
| The Liberal Democrat former minister Sarah Teather criticised the plans saying "I fear it's about the worst kind of politics, chasing populism at the expense of children's well-being is not politics that I care for very much, and I don't think we do ourselves as politicians or the British public very much good by following that line." | The Liberal Democrat former minister Sarah Teather criticised the plans saying "I fear it's about the worst kind of politics, chasing populism at the expense of children's well-being is not politics that I care for very much, and I don't think we do ourselves as politicians or the British public very much good by following that line." |
| Duncan Smith denied he was punishing people, saying it was "no life to lead to accept the fact that you languish on benefits, trying to avoid ways of getting back to work". He added: "You put people into housing they cannot afford when they go back to work because the rules are you lose part of your housing benefit when your income goes up." | Duncan Smith denied he was punishing people, saying it was "no life to lead to accept the fact that you languish on benefits, trying to avoid ways of getting back to work". He added: "You put people into housing they cannot afford when they go back to work because the rules are you lose part of your housing benefit when your income goes up." |
| The cap, which limits combined benefits, will be rolled out across the rest of England, Scotland and Wales over the next 12 weeks. | The cap, which limits combined benefits, will be rolled out across the rest of England, Scotland and Wales over the next 12 weeks. |
| The shadow work and pensions secretary, Liam Byrne, accused Duncan Smith's department of operating on the basis of blind faith and guesswork after it published the Mori poll of 500 people "who were notified within the last year that they would be capped, but who subsequently moved into work". | The shadow work and pensions secretary, Liam Byrne, accused Duncan Smith's department of operating on the basis of blind faith and guesswork after it published the Mori poll of 500 people "who were notified within the last year that they would be capped, but who subsequently moved into work". |
| The figures were apparently designed to show that the cap leads to employment, with over half of those who knew about the cap finding a job. But many in the relatively small sample were already looking for a job, and said their chief barrier to work was the lack of opportunities. | The figures were apparently designed to show that the cap leads to employment, with over half of those who knew about the cap finding a job. But many in the relatively small sample were already looking for a job, and said their chief barrier to work was the lack of opportunities. |
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