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Iain Duncan Smith defends use of statistics over benefits cap Iain Duncan Smith defends use of statistics over benefits cap
(about 7 hours later)
The work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, said he was right to claim that benefit claimants subject to the new welfare cap were being forced into work, despite being criticised by the government statistics watchdog for making the assertion. Iain Duncan Smith has said he was right to claim that benefit claimants subject to the new welfare cap were being forced into work, despite being criticised by the government statistics watchdog for making the assertion.
He said: "I have a belief I am right," as he published polling showing how popular the measure was with the public. He also denied claims that families subject to a cap would be made homeless, arguing that "the homelessness figures have hardly moved at all". The work and pensions secretary said: "I have a belief I am right," as he published polling showing how popular the measure was with the public. He also denied claims that families subject to a cap would be made homeless, arguing that "the homelessness figures have hardly moved at all".
Duncan Smith was speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme on the day a benefits cap trialled in four London boroughs was expanded across the country. The cap is set at just below £26,000 a household, around average earnings. Polling shows the move is the single most popular reform the government has made to the welfare system. Duncan Smith was speaking on Radio 4's Today programme on the day a benefits cap trialled in four London boroughs was expanded across the country. The cap is set at just below £26,000 a household – around average earnings. Polling shows the move is the single most popular reform the government has made to the welfare system.
But results of trials published by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) have shown that 8,000 people have been financially affected in the cap test areas, with many large families losing more than £100 a week. Only those in work, people entitled to a war widow(er) pension, disabled people and the sick are exempt. Results of the pilots released by the Department for Work and Pensions show 8,000 people were financially affected in the test areas, with many large families losing more than £100 a week. Only those in work, people entitled to a war widow(er) pension, disabled people and the sick are exempt.
Duncan Smith has already been criticised by the Office for National Statistics for claiming that the cap has led to 8,000 people finding work. He was told by the ONS that it was not possible to find any causal link between the cap and those finding work. Duncan Smith has already been criticised by the Office for National Statistics for claiming the cap had led to 8,000 people finding work. He was told by the ONS it was not possible to find any causal link between the cap and those finding work.
An unrepentant Duncan Smith told the Today programme on Monday: "You cannot absolutely prove those two things are connected – you cannot disprove what I said. I believe this to be right. I believe we are already seeing people going back to work who were not going back to work until this group were capped." An unrepentant Duncan Smith told Today on Monday: "You cannot absolutely prove those two things are connected – you cannot disprove what I said. I believe this to be right. I believe we are already seeing people going back to work who were not going back to work until this group were capped."
Pressed on claims made by Haringey council, one of the trial areas, that out of 740 households subject to the cap only 34 had found work, he said the BBC could always find politically motivated people to make that kind of remark. "We have not published evidence in this. I believe I am right," said Duncan Smith, pointing to evidence from jobcentres.Pressed on claims made by Haringey council, one of the trial areas, that out of 740 households subject to the cap only 34 had found work, he said the BBC could always find politically motivated people to make that kind of remark. "We have not published evidence in this. I believe I am right," said Duncan Smith, pointing to evidence from jobcentres.
He added that the principle was simple, saying: "You cannot go on earning more money out of work on benefits than those in work trying hard." He added that the principle was simple, saying: "You cannot go on earning more money [while] out of work on benefits than those in work trying hard."
On the effects of the benefits cap on those facing high housing costs, he said: "We believe that in London there is plenty of accommodation and the vast majority of accommodation is available – a third of all rental accommodation in the private sector is available for people on social rents. The government's own polling on the cap warns that the limited evidence it offers that people affected by the cap have moved into work should not be regarded as clear proof the policy is working.
The report states that: "There is evidence that the policy has encouraged some claimants to take action to avoid the benefit cap before implementation"
Of those claimants currently working and who knew about the cap, 61% had found a job after being notified that they would be affected. But the report says that "this does not show causation" - meaning that the claimants may have gone into work anyway.
A spokesperson for Ipsos Mori confirmed the poll did not offer conclusive evidence that the cap was working. "It does not show causality. Iain Duncan Smith may be saying that this is what he believes to be the cause but he cannot say it offers proof."
On the effects of the benefits cap on those facing high housing costs, Duncan Smith said: "We believe that in London there is plenty of accommodation and the vast majority of accommodation is available – a third of all rental accommodation in the private sector is available for people on social rents.
"The great talk about thousands being made homeless has not come true. The homeless figures have hardly moved at all.""The great talk about thousands being made homeless has not come true. The homeless figures have hardly moved at all."
Duncan Smith said it was wrong for welfare claimants to live in houses where the rent is £50,000 or £100,000 a year, saying other families lived out of central London and commuted to work.Duncan Smith said it was wrong for welfare claimants to live in houses where the rent is £50,000 or £100,000 a year, saying other families lived out of central London and commuted to work.
The reforms are due to save £275m in 2013-14 and £275m in 2014-15 (in cash terms) or £270m in 2013-14. The reforms are due to save £275m in 2013-14 and £275m in 2014-15 (in cash terms) or £270m in 2013-14 and £265m in 2014-15 (in 2012-13 prices).
Duncan Smith denied he was punishing people, saying: "There is no life to lead to accept the fact that you languish on benefits, trying to avoid ways of getting back to work. You put people into housing they cannot afford when they go back to work because the rules are you lose part of your housing benefit when your income goes up." The Liberal Democrat former minister Sarah Teather criticised the plans saying "I fear it's about the worst kind of politics, chasing populism at the expense of children's well-being is not politics that I care for very much, and I don't think we do ourselves as politicians or the British public very much good by following that line."
The cap, which limits combined benefits, will be spread gradually across the rest of England, Scotland and Wales over the next 12 weeks. Duncan Smith denied he was punishing people, saying it was "no life to lead to accept the fact that you languish on benefits, trying to avoid ways of getting back to work". He added: "You put people into housing they cannot afford when they go back to work because the rules are you lose part of your housing benefit when your income goes up."
During the next six weeks it will be introduced across 335 local authority areas which each have an estimated 275 or fewer affected households. From 12 August it will then be applied to a further 40 local authority areas which have an estimated 276 or more households each to be capped. The cap, which limits combined benefits, will be rolled out across the rest of England, Scotland and Wales over the next 12 weeks.
Duncan Smith's department said the cap would be phased in gradually, with councils "sent low volumes for capping at the start of implementation to ensure DWP levels of expertise are achieved at the required accuracy levels". The DWP said that by the end of September, the cap would have been rolled out to all households. Most claims under universal credit will be capped from October. The shadow work and pensions secretary, Liam Byrne, accused Duncan Smith's department of operating on the basis of blind faith and guesswork after it published the Mori poll of 500 people "who were notified within the last year that they would be capped, but who subsequently moved into work".
As well as Haringey, the cap has been trialled in Croydon, Bromley and Enfield since 15 April. The figures were apparently designed to show that the cap leads to employment, with over half of those who knew about the cap finding a job. But many in the relatively small sample were already looking for a job, and said their chief barrier to work was the lack of opportunities.
Over the past year jobcentres have contacted claimants affected. The DWP says more than 12,000 people had moved into work and 32,300 had accepted employment support by June.
The department also published a survey by Mori of 500 people "who were notified within the last year that they would be capped, but who subsequently moved into work". The figures were apparently designed to show that the cap leads to employment. It showed that around half of the people who knew about the cap took action in response to it, with 62% of them looking for a job.
In addition, 61% of those in work found their job after they were told about the cap, the poll says. This figure increases to 72% of those who report having been infrequently employed during their working lives.
According to the government's impact assessment, the benefits cap will affect 56,000 households.
The National Housing Federation director, Ruth Davison, said: "In many parts of the country, families won't be able to pay high private rents because of the cap. There will be more demand than ever for affordable housing, particularly in Greater London where nearly half (49%) of the people affected by the benefit cap live.
"Families could face the stark choice of cutting back on essentials or having to move away long distances from their support networks to look for cheaper places to live. Until we see a long-term affordable house-building programme that will drive down the price of rents for everybody, housing costs should be removed from the cap."
Matthew Reed, the chief executive of the Children's Society, accused the government of trying to use a "blunt instrument" to solve a complex problem.
"The debate around this cap has focused solely on workless adults, but the reality is that children are seven times more likely than adults to lose out," he said.
"Fourteen hundred thousand children, compared [with] 60,000 adults, will pay the price as parents have less to spend on food, clothing and rent. And almost half the adults affected will have children aged four or younger, and would find it extremely difficult to be in work, even if they could afford childcare which can cost as much as £100 per child per week.
"We fully support efforts to make work pay. But it is not right to do this by putting more children on the breadline. Instead, the government should do more to help families by tackling the sky-high rents in some parts of the UK and making childcare affordable."