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| Florida Republican primary results – live | Florida Republican primary results – live |
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| 8.57pm: After Florida, the campaign fragments as the candidates spread out across the nation. Romney has opted to make his first post-Florida triumphal procession in Eagan, Minnesota, where his chariot will be accompanied by former governor Tim Pawlenty holding an olive wreath. | |
| 8.46pm: As Newt Gingrich prepares to speak in Orlando, Adam Gabbatt has uncovered quite the exclusive from behind the scenes: | |
| Stash of hand-made Newt signs back stage.Lots say "46 states to go". Many seem to have been made by the same person... twitter.com/AdamGabbatt/st… | |
| — Adam Gabbatt (@AdamGabbatt) February 1, 2012 | |
| 8.45pm: So what of Gingrich's prospects now? Ewen MacAskill looks ahead and it's not pretty. | |
| Next six states in contention in Feb notgood for Gingrich.Romney took five of them in 2008. Gingrich's best hope is Texas in March. | |
| — ewen macaskill (@ewenmacaskill) February 1, 2012 | |
| 8.43pm: "I will make America the most attractive place in the world for entrepreneurs," says Mitt Romney. So, perhaps he will be able to move all his off-shore investments from the Cayman Islands back to the US? There's an economic stimulus for America right there. | |
| Romney also notes his 800 vetoes while he was governor of Massachusetts. But not 801 vetoes, notes Republican strategist Liz Mair: | |
| 800 vetoes, but no veto of the Romneycare bill... because it was his health care reform plan, of course. #sayfie #florida | |
| — Liz Mair (@LizMair) February 1, 2012 | |
| Romney says he wants "an America where hope is a new job with a pay check, not a word on a faded bumper sticker". | |
| 8.35pm: Ann Romney confirms to the crowd that Mitt Romney is indeed the father of her five sons, in case anyone was wondering. She introduces her rampant husband. | |
| Mitt congratulates his mysterious unnamed opponents. "A competitive primary does not divide us, it prepares us, and we will win," says Mitt. True, I mean look what happened to Japan after world war two? | |
| And after that brief mention, we are off into the general election preparation by Romney, listing all the people he has met who have suffered so much under the brutal reign of President Obama. | |
| 8.34pm: As the results come in, be sure to have our exciting live results page open. New for Florida: in 3-D! | |
| 8.32pm: The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill is also at Gingrich HQ in Orlando, where the mood is like a mid-west paper company after all the staff have been fired by Bain Capital: | |
| February looks like a desperate month for Gingrich. Of the six states in play, Romney won five in 2008: Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Michigan. The other, Arizona, not surprisingly, went to John McCain: his home state. Maybe Ron Paul will spring a surprise in Maine. But there is not much for Gingrich to look forward to until Super Tuesday on March 6, when Texas comes into play. As a southerner, he must have hopes of taking this delegate-rich state. But it far from a given. He must hope too that Ohio, another delegate-rich state, is also competitive. | |
| 8.31pm: On Fox News, Brit Hume is very, very disappointed in Mitt Romney's negative ads. His tone reminds me of the old joke about the inflatable boy who bought a pin to his inflatable school and is told by the head teacher: "You've let me down, you've let the school down but most of all you've let yourself down." | |
| Yes it's come to this: old jokes. If things don't liven up we may do the one about the boy and the stork. | |
| 8.31pm: Here's Mitt Romney preparing for his victory speech backstage in Tampa, as tweeted by son Tagg. Let's hope they get the pages in the right order, eh? | |
| Last minute speech prep twitter.com/tromney/status… | |
| — Tagg Romney (@tromney) February 1, 2012 | |
| 8.23pm: The mood at the Newt Gingrich event in Orlando is grim, reports Adam Gabbatt, who is there for the Guardian. | |
| There were around 30 Gingrich supporters here to learn of the former speakers's loss, reacting less with cries of anguish than with weary sighs. "It's disappointing, but if it was six days earlier or six days later it could have been different, the way things have been going the last six months," said Mike Ferrari, 23. | |
| Ferrari, from Orlando, said he would not falter in his allegiance, however. "It's important to keep standing for principles and not electability. For proven conservative leadership." | |
| Jamie Schmidt, 36, said he wasn't surprised. "There's still plenty of time for Newt to convince more voters." | |
| I'm behind the scenes at Gibgrich's event, in a sprawling hotel complex west of Orlando. Staffers have been deciding who will go up on stage when Gingrich speaks. It's quite easy for them to decide as there's hardly anyone here – seems most supporters will get their time in the spotlight. I reckon they'd let me up if I was so-inclined. | |
| This pic shows Newt supporters reacting to his loss #flprimary twitter.com/AdamGabbatt/st… | |
| — Adam Gabbatt (@AdamGabbatt) February 1, 2012 | |
| 8.21pm: If you think the super-pac-funded advertising in Florida was nasty: just wait until the general election as November looms. | |
| The Associated Press reports that Karl Rove's super pac is hoarding cash in preparation: | |
| American Crossroads, the Republican "super" political committee that plans to play a major role in this year's presidential campaign, raised more than $51m along with its nonprofit arm last year, the Associated Press has learned. | |
| According to the Crossroads financial reports, among the largest contributors is Dallas businessman Harold Simmons, who gave the group $5m last November and whose holding company, Contran Corp., donated an additional $2m. | |
| AP points out that Simmons was the major donor who pumped as much as $4 million into the "swift boat" campaign that helped sink John Kerry in 2004. | |
| 8.17pm: And yes, the Associated Press comes to the party, calling it for Mitt Romney. | 8.17pm: And yes, the Associated Press comes to the party, calling it for Mitt Romney. |
| 8.10pm: After more than a week of relentless attack ads, this is the result. | 8.10pm: After more than a week of relentless attack ads, this is the result. |
| #CNNelections Exit poll: 39% of FL GOP unhappy with field; 53% of Gingrich voters unhappy if Romney nominee.Bile, bitterness & bad blood. | #CNNelections Exit poll: 39% of FL GOP unhappy with field; 53% of Gingrich voters unhappy if Romney nominee.Bile, bitterness & bad blood. |
| — Paul Begala (@PaulBegala) February 1, 2012 | — Paul Begala (@PaulBegala) February 1, 2012 |
| 8.09pm: The news is that Mitt Romney is expected to give his victory speech from Tampa at 8.25pm ET, nice and early for the Nevada media market. | 8.09pm: The news is that Mitt Romney is expected to give his victory speech from Tampa at 8.25pm ET, nice and early for the Nevada media market. |
| The Gingrich event in Orlando doesn't look like a whole lot of fun. | The Gingrich event in Orlando doesn't look like a whole lot of fun. |
| 8.07pm: Fox News is now going through the full exit poll results – remember there's only one exit poll, share between the broadcasters and other subscribers – and it seems Mitt Romney took only 14% of self-described "true conservatives," while Gingrich won the Tea Party vote easily. | 8.07pm: Fox News is now going through the full exit poll results – remember there's only one exit poll, share between the broadcasters and other subscribers – and it seems Mitt Romney took only 14% of self-described "true conservatives," while Gingrich won the Tea Party vote easily. |
| What that may mean, down the road, is that Republican activists – the ones who knock on doors and donate money – are still not sold on Romney. | What that may mean, down the road, is that Republican activists – the ones who knock on doors and donate money – are still not sold on Romney. |
| 8.01pm: So the Florida polls have closed and Fox News is calling all four places, putting Mitt Romney first at 48% and Newt Gingrich second with 31%. Rick Santorum takes the bronze medal on a predicted 13%, with Ron Paul in fourth on 7%. | 8.01pm: So the Florida polls have closed and Fox News is calling all four places, putting Mitt Romney first at 48% and Newt Gingrich second with 31%. Rick Santorum takes the bronze medal on a predicted 13%, with Ron Paul in fourth on 7%. |
| 7.58pm: The Guardian's Brian Braiker is in the Tampa Convention Center, where Mitt Romney's election night "party" is being held. | 7.58pm: The Guardian's Brian Braiker is in the Tampa Convention Center, where Mitt Romney's election night "party" is being held. |
| As Romney supporters trickled into the Tampa Convention Center (swarm, they do not), the excitement in the air was something short of palpable. Still, with their candidate's victory tonight essentially a foregone conclusion, Romney fans appeared happy to stand by their man. | As Romney supporters trickled into the Tampa Convention Center (swarm, they do not), the excitement in the air was something short of palpable. Still, with their candidate's victory tonight essentially a foregone conclusion, Romney fans appeared happy to stand by their man. |
| "I just want him to be president," said Romney volunteer Deborah Whisenand. Wearing a handsome short-sleeve cardigan knit into the pattern of the American flag, Whisenand was selling t-shirts with the silhouette of the state of Florida on them, cross-cut with the word BELIEVES. | "I just want him to be president," said Romney volunteer Deborah Whisenand. Wearing a handsome short-sleeve cardigan knit into the pattern of the American flag, Whisenand was selling t-shirts with the silhouette of the state of Florida on them, cross-cut with the word BELIEVES. |
| "I think he will bring back our values," said Whisenand, who has lived in the state since the late 1960s. "I just think he is honest and ethical. I will support Gingrich if he's the nominee, but I am strongly, strongly for Mitt Romney." | "I think he will bring back our values," said Whisenand, who has lived in the state since the late 1960s. "I just think he is honest and ethical. I will support Gingrich if he's the nominee, but I am strongly, strongly for Mitt Romney." |
| Duance and Aleshia George are possibly even stronger for Romney. The couple own their own accounting business in Orlando and cite Romney's business experience and the chief reason for supporting him. "Despite what Newt says, Romney's not a career politician," said Aleshia. | Duance and Aleshia George are possibly even stronger for Romney. The couple own their own accounting business in Orlando and cite Romney's business experience and the chief reason for supporting him. "Despite what Newt says, Romney's not a career politician," said Aleshia. |
| If Gingrich wins the nomination, neither of the Georges say they would vote for him. Duane said he'd write in a name, probably Romney's, if Gingrich is the nominee. "We used to be in his district in Georgia," said Aleshia. "Promising the moon pretty much sums him up. He's Obama-light. He's Obama-worse." | If Gingrich wins the nomination, neither of the Georges say they would vote for him. Duane said he'd write in a name, probably Romney's, if Gingrich is the nominee. "We used to be in his district in Georgia," said Aleshia. "Promising the moon pretty much sums him up. He's Obama-light. He's Obama-worse." |
| 7.49pm: You can of course watch the live results roll in right here with the widget above, but you're not a fully paid-up political junkie unless you are watching results on at least three different sites just in case one is a nanosecond faster in posting those results. | 7.49pm: You can of course watch the live results roll in right here with the widget above, but you're not a fully paid-up political junkie unless you are watching results on at least three different sites just in case one is a nanosecond faster in posting those results. |
| Here's the Florida election watch site from the Florida division of electors, who did such a bang-up job in 2000 as we all recall, ahem. | Here's the Florida election watch site from the Florida division of electors, who did such a bang-up job in 2000 as we all recall, ahem. |
| And here's the Google politics and elections site, which did actually do a bang-up job in the previous primaries, especially the crappy Iowa election count. | And here's the Google politics and elections site, which did actually do a bang-up job in the previous primaries, especially the crappy Iowa election count. |
| 7.41pm: Our correspondent in Miami, Karen McVeigh, has employed the traditional journalistic tool of asking a taxi driver for his opinion: | 7.41pm: Our correspondent in Miami, Karen McVeigh, has employed the traditional journalistic tool of asking a taxi driver for his opinion: |
| Miami cabbie on #fprimary; Rmny "I want to be President make me President" stamps foot Gngrch snarls "Make ME President I'll bomb someplace" | Miami cabbie on #fprimary; Rmny "I want to be President make me President" stamps foot Gngrch snarls "Make ME President I'll bomb someplace" |
| — karen mcveigh (@karenmcveigh1) February 1, 2012 | — karen mcveigh (@karenmcveigh1) February 1, 2012 |
| 7.35pm: So what to look for tonight? The exit polls – which will mainly come out after we know the result (as if we didn't know the result already) at 8pm ET – will tell us more about the make-up of the electorate. But here are the three key counties in Florida to watch to gauge how the Romney v Gingrich split went down: | 7.35pm: So what to look for tonight? The exit polls – which will mainly come out after we know the result (as if we didn't know the result already) at 8pm ET – will tell us more about the make-up of the electorate. But here are the three key counties in Florida to watch to gauge how the Romney v Gingrich split went down: |
| • Bay County: In the north of Florida in the Panhandle, Bay County is a a conservative stronghold. In the 2008 primary Mitt Romney did well here – but then he was the conservative alternative to John McCain. In 2012, Newt Gingrich would be hoping to do well here, as well as Rick Santorum. | • Bay County: In the north of Florida in the Panhandle, Bay County is a a conservative stronghold. In the 2008 primary Mitt Romney did well here – but then he was the conservative alternative to John McCain. In 2012, Newt Gingrich would be hoping to do well here, as well as Rick Santorum. |
| • Duval County: Centred around Jacksonville on the east coast, the epicentre of Republican influence in the state, Duval has a big military presence. It was the site of Romney's best performance in 2008 but will it endorse him so enthusiastically this time around? | • Duval County: Centred around Jacksonville on the east coast, the epicentre of Republican influence in the state, Duval has a big military presence. It was the site of Romney's best performance in 2008 but will it endorse him so enthusiastically this time around? |
| • Miami-Dade County: Hispanic voters are crucial in this huge county in the south of the state, where more than two-thirds of the GOP's registered voters are of Hispanic origin. Romney is thought likely to do well here, and it could contribute a considerable total to his winning margin. McCain swept the county in 2008. | • Miami-Dade County: Hispanic voters are crucial in this huge county in the south of the state, where more than two-thirds of the GOP's registered voters are of Hispanic origin. Romney is thought likely to do well here, and it could contribute a considerable total to his winning margin. McCain swept the county in 2008. |
| 7.32pm: An excellent point from my colleague Paul Harris. | 7.32pm: An excellent point from my colleague Paul Harris. |
| Key thing to check is if #Romney's total is greater than #Santorum + #Gingrich together. If so, then Mitt was killed the #GOP doubters | Key thing to check is if #Romney's total is greater than #Santorum + #Gingrich together. If so, then Mitt was killed the #GOP doubters |
| — Paul Harris (@paulxharris) February 1, 2012 | — Paul Harris (@paulxharris) February 1, 2012 |
| 7.00pm: The Florida GOP primary reaches its climax tonight, with the only question being the size of Mitt Romney's victory over Newt Gingrich after both men spent 10 days exchanging an artillery barrage of negative ads on the Sunshine State's television stations. | 7.00pm: The Florida GOP primary reaches its climax tonight, with the only question being the size of Mitt Romney's victory over Newt Gingrich after both men spent 10 days exchanging an artillery barrage of negative ads on the Sunshine State's television stations. |
| Given the size of Romney's lead, it seems highly likely that the TV networks who are the arbiters of US politics will call the result as soon as the final polls close in Florida's Panhandle at 8pm ET. So it won't be a night of high drama. Or will it? No, it won't. | Given the size of Romney's lead, it seems highly likely that the TV networks who are the arbiters of US politics will call the result as soon as the final polls close in Florida's Panhandle at 8pm ET. So it won't be a night of high drama. Or will it? No, it won't. |
| Size matters, as they say. A loss of less than double digits for Gingrich almost counts as a victory at this point. If the Romney winning margin creeps above 20 percentage points, then the calls for Gingrich to withdraw will start in earnest. | Size matters, as they say. A loss of less than double digits for Gingrich almost counts as a victory at this point. If the Romney winning margin creeps above 20 percentage points, then the calls for Gingrich to withdraw will start in earnest. |
| There's also the issue of the fight for bronze between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, but that's very much a side dish compared to the main course of the Gingrich v Romney clash. | There's also the issue of the fight for bronze between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, but that's very much a side dish compared to the main course of the Gingrich v Romney clash. |
| The Guardian's correspondents are out and about in Miami, Orlando and Tampa watching the candidates parties, and we'll be bringing you all the action and reaction from around the state, online and offline. | The Guardian's correspondents are out and about in Miami, Orlando and Tampa watching the candidates parties, and we'll be bringing you all the action and reaction from around the state, online and offline. |
| Please leave your comments below – and get out the popcorn for the 8pm finale. | Please leave your comments below – and get out the popcorn for the 8pm finale. |