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| Florida Republican primary results – live | Florida Republican primary results – live |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 8.17pm: And yes, the Associated Press comes to the party, calling it for Mitt Romney. | |
| 8.10pm: After more than a week of relentless attack ads, this is the result. | |
| #CNNelections Exit poll: 39% of FL GOP unhappy with field; 53% of Gingrich voters unhappy if Romney nominee.Bile, bitterness & bad blood. | |
| — Paul Begala (@PaulBegala) February 1, 2012 | |
| 8.09pm: The news is that Mitt Romney is expected to give his victory speech from Tampa at 8.25pm ET, nice and early for the Nevada media market. | |
| The Gingrich event in Orlando doesn't look like a whole lot of fun. | |
| 8.07pm: Fox News is now going through the full exit poll results – remember there's only one exit poll, share between the broadcasters and other subscribers – and it seems Mitt Romney took only 14% of self-described "true conservatives," while Gingrich won the Tea Party vote easily. | |
| What that may mean, down the road, is that Republican activists – the ones who knock on doors and donate money – are still not sold on Romney. | |
| 8.01pm: So the Florida polls have closed and Fox News is calling all four places, putting Mitt Romney first at 48% and Newt Gingrich second with 31%. Rick Santorum takes the bronze medal on a predicted 13%, with Ron Paul in fourth on 7%. | |
| 7.58pm: The Guardian's Brian Braiker is in the Tampa Convention Center, where Mitt Romney's election night "party" is being held. | |
| As Romney supporters trickled into the Tampa Convention Center (swarm, they do not), the excitement in the air was something short of palpable. Still, with their candidate's victory tonight essentially a foregone conclusion, Romney fans appeared happy to stand by their man. | |
| "I just want him to be president," said Romney volunteer Deborah Whisenand. Wearing a handsome short-sleeve cardigan knit into the pattern of the American flag, Whisenand was selling t-shirts with the silhouette of the state of Florida on them, cross-cut with the word BELIEVES. | |
| "I think he will bring back our values," said Whisenand, who has lived in the state since the late 1960s. "I just think he is honest and ethical. I will support Gingrich if he's the nominee, but I am strongly, strongly for Mitt Romney." | |
| Duance and Aleshia George are possibly even stronger for Romney. The couple own their own accounting business in Orlando and cite Romney's business experience and the chief reason for supporting him. "Despite what Newt says, Romney's not a career politician," said Aleshia. | |
| If Gingrich wins the nomination, neither of the Georges say they would vote for him. Duane said he'd write in a name, probably Romney's, if Gingrich is the nominee. "We used to be in his district in Georgia," said Aleshia. "Promising the moon pretty much sums him up. He's Obama-light. He's Obama-worse." | |
| 7.49pm: You can of course watch the live results roll in right here with the widget above, but you're not a fully paid-up political junkie unless you are watching results on at least three different sites just in case one is a nanosecond faster in posting those results. | |
| Here's the Florida election watch site from the Florida division of electors, who did such a bang-up job in 2000 as we all recall, ahem. | |
| And here's the Google politics and elections site, which did actually do a bang-up job in the previous primaries, especially the crappy Iowa election count. | |
| 7.41pm: Our correspondent in Miami, Karen McVeigh, has employed the traditional journalistic tool of asking a taxi driver for his opinion: | |
| Miami cabbie on #fprimary; Rmny "I want to be President make me President" stamps foot Gngrch snarls "Make ME President I'll bomb someplace" | |
| — karen mcveigh (@karenmcveigh1) February 1, 2012 | |
| 7.35pm: So what to look for tonight? The exit polls – which will mainly come out after we know the result (as if we didn't know the result already) at 8pm ET – will tell us more about the make-up of the electorate. But here are the three key counties in Florida to watch to gauge how the Romney v Gingrich split went down: | 7.35pm: So what to look for tonight? The exit polls – which will mainly come out after we know the result (as if we didn't know the result already) at 8pm ET – will tell us more about the make-up of the electorate. But here are the three key counties in Florida to watch to gauge how the Romney v Gingrich split went down: |
| • Bay County: In the north of Florida in the Panhandle, Bay County is a a conservative stronghold. In the 2008 primary Mitt Romney did well here – but then he was the conservative alternative to John McCain. In 2012, Newt Gingrich would be hoping to do well here, as well as Rick Santorum. | • Bay County: In the north of Florida in the Panhandle, Bay County is a a conservative stronghold. In the 2008 primary Mitt Romney did well here – but then he was the conservative alternative to John McCain. In 2012, Newt Gingrich would be hoping to do well here, as well as Rick Santorum. |
| • Duval County: Centred around Jacksonville on the east coast, the epicentre of Republican influence in the state, Duval has a big military presence. It was the site of Romney's best performance in 2008 but will it endorse him so enthusiastically this time around? | • Duval County: Centred around Jacksonville on the east coast, the epicentre of Republican influence in the state, Duval has a big military presence. It was the site of Romney's best performance in 2008 but will it endorse him so enthusiastically this time around? |
| • Miami-Dade County: Hispanic voters are crucial in this huge county in the south of the state, where more than two-thirds of the GOP's registered voters are of Hispanic origin. Romney is thought likely to do well here, and it could contribute a considerable total to his winning margin. McCain swept the county in 2008. | • Miami-Dade County: Hispanic voters are crucial in this huge county in the south of the state, where more than two-thirds of the GOP's registered voters are of Hispanic origin. Romney is thought likely to do well here, and it could contribute a considerable total to his winning margin. McCain swept the county in 2008. |
| 7.32pm: An excellent point from my colleague Paul Harris. | 7.32pm: An excellent point from my colleague Paul Harris. |
| Key thing to check is if #Romney's total is greater than #Santorum + #Gingrich together. If so, then Mitt was killed the #GOP doubters | Key thing to check is if #Romney's total is greater than #Santorum + #Gingrich together. If so, then Mitt was killed the #GOP doubters |
| — Paul Harris (@paulxharris) February 1, 2012 | — Paul Harris (@paulxharris) February 1, 2012 |
| 7.00pm: The Florida GOP primary reaches its climax tonight, with the only question being the size of Mitt Romney's victory over Newt Gingrich after both men spent 10 days exchanging an artillery barrage of negative ads on the Sunshine State's television stations. | 7.00pm: The Florida GOP primary reaches its climax tonight, with the only question being the size of Mitt Romney's victory over Newt Gingrich after both men spent 10 days exchanging an artillery barrage of negative ads on the Sunshine State's television stations. |
| Given the size of Romney's lead, it seems highly likely that the TV networks who are the arbiters of US politics will call the result as soon as the final polls close in Florida's Panhandle at 8pm ET. So it won't be a night of high drama. Or will it? No, it won't. | Given the size of Romney's lead, it seems highly likely that the TV networks who are the arbiters of US politics will call the result as soon as the final polls close in Florida's Panhandle at 8pm ET. So it won't be a night of high drama. Or will it? No, it won't. |
| Size matters, as they say. A loss of less than double digits for Gingrich almost counts as a victory at this point. If the Romney winning margin creeps above 20 percentage points, then the calls for Gingrich to withdraw will start in earnest. | Size matters, as they say. A loss of less than double digits for Gingrich almost counts as a victory at this point. If the Romney winning margin creeps above 20 percentage points, then the calls for Gingrich to withdraw will start in earnest. |
| There's also the issue of the fight for bronze between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, but that's very much a side dish compared to the main course of the Gingrich v Romney clash. | There's also the issue of the fight for bronze between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, but that's very much a side dish compared to the main course of the Gingrich v Romney clash. |
| The Guardian's correspondents are out and about in Miami, Orlando and Tampa watching the candidates parties, and we'll be bringing you all the action and reaction from around the state, online and offline. | The Guardian's correspondents are out and about in Miami, Orlando and Tampa watching the candidates parties, and we'll be bringing you all the action and reaction from around the state, online and offline. |
| Please leave your comments below – and get out the popcorn for the 8pm finale. | Please leave your comments below – and get out the popcorn for the 8pm finale. |