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Interest rates expected to stay at 4.75% UK interest rates held at 4.75%
(about 4 hours later)
The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at a meeting later today. UK interest rates will remain at 4.75% after the Bank of England voted to hold borrowing costs.
Most analysts predict the benchmark rate will stay at its current level of 4.75% when the decision is announced at 12:00 GMT. However, the Bank seriously considered cutting interest rates in December as it forecast that the UK economy failed to grow at the end of this year.
It comes as inflation rose for the second month in a row to 2.6% in the year to November - pushing it further above the Bank's target of 2%. While the Bank voted to keep rates unchanged, three members of the nine-member rate-setting committee wanted to reduce it to 4.5%.
In November, the Bank's governor Andrew Bailey said the path for rates would likely be "downward from here" but cautioned that the process would be gradual. The split opens the door to a rate cut as soon as February when the Bank next meets.
The Bank moves rates up and down to try to control inflation, which measures the pace of overall price rises. Details from this month's meeting revealed the Bank thinks the economy stopped growing between October and December.
The idea is that if you make borrowing more expensive, people have less money to spend. People may also be encouraged to save more. Commenting on the decision, Bank governor Andrew Bailey said: "We think a gradual approach to future interest rate cuts remains right but with the heightened uncertainty in the economy we can't commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year."
In turn, this reduces demand for goods and slows the rate at which prices are rising. One of the Bank's deputy governors, Dave Ramsden, was among those pointing to "sluggish demand" and a "weakening labour market".
But it is a balancing act - increasing borrowing costs risks harming the economy. While recent data showed that both inflation and wage growth were higher, the economy is struggling. In November, the Bank had forecast growth of 0.3% but it now expects 0%.
Businesses, for example, may borrow less, making them less likely to create jobs. Some may cut staff and reduce investment. It also downgraded its expectations for the July to September period.
The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - the group of people at the Bank that decide on rates, cut them in November from 5% to 4.75% - the second reduction in 2024. The revisions will be a blow to Labour which has made boosting economic growth its top priority.
However, rising prices, combined with figures on Tuesday that showed faster growth in wages, suggest that the central bank may need to hold interest rates at their current level for longer. It has promised to deliver the highest sustained economic growth in the G7 group of rich nations.
Paul Dales, chief UK economist at the think tank, Capital Economics, said November's higher inflation figure made it very unlikely that interest rates would be cut on Thursday. In the minutes from the meeting, the Bank said there was uncertainty "around how the measures that had been announced in the autumn Budget were affecting growth".
"There is almost no chance of the Bank of England delivering an early Christmas present with another interest rate cut," he said. In the Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced £40bn worth of tax rises, the majority of which will come from an increase in National Insurance contributions from employers.
"That's especially the case since domestic inflation pressures appear to be a touch stronger than the Bank expected." By the time of the Bank's next decision in February, it will have more data on the impact of the Budget changes, as well as the incoming US administration's trade tariff policies.
Capital Economics predicts inflation will dip in December and then rise again in January.
But it anticipates that by the end of next year, it would have fallen back to close to the Bank of England's 2% target.
The Bank's base interest rate heavily influences the rates High Street banks and other money lenders charge customers for loans, as well as credit cards.
Lenders have mostly "priced in" the impact of a base rate hold or cut when making decisions on their own interest rates.
Mortgage rates are still much higher than they have been for much of the past decade.
The average two-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.04% according to financial information company Moneyfacts. A five-year deal has an average rate of 4.14%.