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Local election results 2024 live: Sadiq Khan wins as London mayor with West Midlands vote close - BBC News Local election results 2024 live: Sadiq Khan wins in London as West Midlands awaits final count - BBC News
(32 minutes later)
Professor Sir John CurticeProfessor Sir John Curtice
Polling expertPolling expert
So far in the local authorities where results have been declared, the swing from Conservative to Labour is 3.8% - somewhat short of the 4.5% overall swing that Labour needs to win the contest. With Sandwell the last local authority to declare in the West Midlands mayoral contest, Labour need to win Sandwell by at least 11,456 votes.
If Labour is to win, they will need to secure a swing of 5.45% in the two remaining counts yet to declare - Coventry and Sandwell. In the last contest, Labour were 5,171 votes ahead of the Conservatives. So all now turns on whether Labour can win over 3,143 Conservative votes into their camp.
However, the swing was above that in three of the five local authority areas which have now declared. Our modelling of the results so far suggests Labour may well achieve this.
This probably helps to explain why the Conservatives are hoping that a recount in Coventry might yet enable Andy Street to remain in office.
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