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| How do politicians gauge the public mood? | How do politicians gauge the public mood? |
| (about 6 hours later) | |
| As the MPs' expenses row rolls on, many politicians have been criticised for misjudging public opinion. Is it really so hard to know what millions of people think? | As the MPs' expenses row rolls on, many politicians have been criticised for misjudging public opinion. Is it really so hard to know what millions of people think? |
| Members of Parliament are supposed to be aware of how the public is feeling. After all, it is the populace whose ballot paper crosses brought them into the Commons. | Members of Parliament are supposed to be aware of how the public is feeling. After all, it is the populace whose ballot paper crosses brought them into the Commons. |
| But some have suggested that the row over parliamentary expenses shows they can sometimes fail to track a shift from irritation to full-blown outrage. At times MPs have seemed surprised at the strength of feeling they are encountering from the public. | But some have suggested that the row over parliamentary expenses shows they can sometimes fail to track a shift from irritation to full-blown outrage. At times MPs have seemed surprised at the strength of feeling they are encountering from the public. |
| You can end up with a Westminster-centric view of things, and it's not the real world Baroness MorrisFormer education secretary | You can end up with a Westminster-centric view of things, and it's not the real world Baroness MorrisFormer education secretary |
| At the weekend one newspaper compared events of the past few days to the aftermath of Princess Diana's death in 1997. Then, the monarchy was caught up in a wave of public emotion that led to criticism of what was perceived as a low-key response to the death. | At the weekend one newspaper compared events of the past few days to the aftermath of Princess Diana's death in 1997. Then, the monarchy was caught up in a wave of public emotion that led to criticism of what was perceived as a low-key response to the death. |
| One of the primary conduits to assessing the mood was the press, accompanied by television footage of impromptu public gatherings at Kensington Palace and oceans of flowers. | One of the primary conduits to assessing the mood was the press, accompanied by television footage of impromptu public gatherings at Kensington Palace and oceans of flowers. |
| Today, there is a wealth of other sources to reflect the overall mood, from blogs to social media and the forums on news websites. Even the traditional phone-in now packs more in, rifling through pithy text messages. | Today, there is a wealth of other sources to reflect the overall mood, from blogs to social media and the forums on news websites. Even the traditional phone-in now packs more in, rifling through pithy text messages. |
| And yet it can still sometimes prove difficult for politicians, and particularly those cloistered in the corridors of government, to keep up with the subtly shifting mood during a rapidly-developing event. | And yet it can still sometimes prove difficult for politicians, and particularly those cloistered in the corridors of government, to keep up with the subtly shifting mood during a rapidly-developing event. |
| Public pulse | Public pulse |
| Ordinary people, if asked to gauge the "public mood" might base their assessment on a group of colleagues and friends, and on their encounters with random people while going about their lives - the people they meet on buses and trains, on garage forecourts and in supermarkets and pubs. But if you are prime minister, this barometer of feeling may be slightly harder to access. | Ordinary people, if asked to gauge the "public mood" might base their assessment on a group of colleagues and friends, and on their encounters with random people while going about their lives - the people they meet on buses and trains, on garage forecourts and in supermarkets and pubs. But if you are prime minister, this barometer of feeling may be slightly harder to access. |
| Even ordinary MPs may not always spend enough time milling around ordinary people, suggests Sir Robert Worcester, who has been taking the public pulse since he set up Mori 40 years ago. | Even ordinary MPs may not always spend enough time milling around ordinary people, suggests Sir Robert Worcester, who has been taking the public pulse since he set up Mori 40 years ago. |
| The level of public grief for Princess Diana surprised someEnlarge Image | The level of public grief for Princess Diana surprised someEnlarge Image |
| "When you ask, as we have for 30-something years, questions such as 'have you been in contact with your MP - or even your councillor - in the last two or three years' it is no more than one in 10 who say yes. Even during times of elections it's only 13 or 14%." | "When you ask, as we have for 30-something years, questions such as 'have you been in contact with your MP - or even your councillor - in the last two or three years' it is no more than one in 10 who say yes. Even during times of elections it's only 13 or 14%." |
| Of course, with the advent of universal suffrage in the 20th Century, the number of people politicians have to keep up with is vastly increased. Before the 1832 Reform Act, the UK electorate was in the region of 360,000 voters. Now it approaches 45 million people. | Of course, with the advent of universal suffrage in the 20th Century, the number of people politicians have to keep up with is vastly increased. Before the 1832 Reform Act, the UK electorate was in the region of 360,000 voters. Now it approaches 45 million people. |
| But even with the smaller electorates of yore, there was still an unfranchised mob whose mood needed to be assessed, lest they should riot and rebel. | But even with the smaller electorates of yore, there was still an unfranchised mob whose mood needed to be assessed, lest they should riot and rebel. |
| Perhaps the world's most famous attempt to gauge public opinion is related in the New Testament, when Pontius Pilate asks the crowd whether he should spare Jesus or Barabbas. Even that crowd's response has been interpreted in a number of ways. | Perhaps the world's most famous attempt to gauge public opinion is related in the New Testament, when Pontius Pilate asks the crowd whether he should spare Jesus or Barabbas. Even that crowd's response has been interpreted in a number of ways. |
| Cocooned world | Cocooned world |
| For the modern politician tackling an enfranchised population, engaged with the internet and rolling news, it's all very tricky. The opinion poll is a key tool. | For the modern politician tackling an enfranchised population, engaged with the internet and rolling news, it's all very tricky. The opinion poll is a key tool. |
| In the US political drama The West Wing, President Josiah Bartlet's staff - in their cocooned world - chew their fingernails to the quick in anticipation of a set of poll "numbers". | In the US political drama The West Wing, President Josiah Bartlet's staff - in their cocooned world - chew their fingernails to the quick in anticipation of a set of poll "numbers". |
| They think that is what the world thinks - boy, are they wrong Mori founder Sir Robert Worcester on MP's constituency clubs | They think that is what the world thinks - boy, are they wrong Mori founder Sir Robert Worcester on MP's constituency clubs |
| Peter Kellner, of pollsters YouGov, says pollsters can give politicians a "broad brush stroke of opinion" at short notice - sometimes as little as two or three hours. | Peter Kellner, of pollsters YouGov, says pollsters can give politicians a "broad brush stroke of opinion" at short notice - sometimes as little as two or three hours. |
| Since 1997 there has been much discussion of the use of focus groups, handfuls of people picked to be representative of a target demographic, then questioned in relative seclusion. The Downing Street website runs an online petition page for the public, where anyone can submit a page saying "We the undersigned petition the prime minister to ". | Since 1997 there has been much discussion of the use of focus groups, handfuls of people picked to be representative of a target demographic, then questioned in relative seclusion. The Downing Street website runs an online petition page for the public, where anyone can submit a page saying "We the undersigned petition the prime minister to ". |
| But many politicians set the most store by what they encounter on their home turf, well away from the "Westminster Village". | But many politicians set the most store by what they encounter on their home turf, well away from the "Westminster Village". |
| Estelle Morris, former education secretary and now Baroness Morris of Yardley, says MPs away from their constituents - especially ministers who find themselves in Whitehall - may lose that common touch. | Estelle Morris, former education secretary and now Baroness Morris of Yardley, says MPs away from their constituents - especially ministers who find themselves in Whitehall - may lose that common touch. |
| Local pub | Local pub |
| "There's a danger that you end up relying on the media, and that's not accurate. You can end up with a Westminster-centric view of things, and it's not the real world." | "There's a danger that you end up relying on the media, and that's not accurate. You can end up with a Westminster-centric view of things, and it's not the real world." |
| She says the answer is simple - get back to your constituency - visit the shops, ring the local residents committees, have a drink in a local pub. | She says the answer is simple - get back to your constituency - visit the shops, ring the local residents committees, have a drink in a local pub. |
| Estelle Morris says MPs should get back and talk to locals | Estelle Morris says MPs should get back and talk to locals |
| "Journalists who don't get out of London on the weekend sometimes underestimate that. Your constituency is often a microcosm of what people think." | "Journalists who don't get out of London on the weekend sometimes underestimate that. Your constituency is often a microcosm of what people think." |
| Olly Grender, of lobbying and public relations firm PLMR and director of communications for the Lib Dems between 1990-95, concurs. | Olly Grender, of lobbying and public relations firm PLMR and director of communications for the Lib Dems between 1990-95, concurs. |
| "If you looked at a diary of most good constituency MPs they are out of their offices more than many people. They will have an evening surgery, they will have shopped in some local shops - most of them are knocking on doors. They will keep an eye on their local media." | "If you looked at a diary of most good constituency MPs they are out of their offices more than many people. They will have an evening surgery, they will have shopped in some local shops - most of them are knocking on doors. They will keep an eye on their local media." |
| And of course, the 21st Century approach runs in parallel. "Quite a lot of them are on Facebook and Twitter." | And of course, the 21st Century approach runs in parallel. "Quite a lot of them are on Facebook and Twitter." |
| But not everybody is totally convinced that MPs are getting a representative sample of the hoi polloi. | But not everybody is totally convinced that MPs are getting a representative sample of the hoi polloi. |
| The problem is, Sir Robert says, MPs equate time spent with supporters at constituency clubs with getting in touch with what the public is thinking. | The problem is, Sir Robert says, MPs equate time spent with supporters at constituency clubs with getting in touch with what the public is thinking. |
| "They think that is what the world thinks. Boy, are they wrong. They are their supporters, they're the people saying, 'Don't worry Charlie, what you're doing is fine'." | "They think that is what the world thinks. Boy, are they wrong. They are their supporters, they're the people saying, 'Don't worry Charlie, what you're doing is fine'." |
| Fellow pollster Mr Kellner suggests MPs are often lulled into thinking that a full mailbag of letters on an issue - he cites foxhunting as one - means constituents are enflamed about a subject. | Fellow pollster Mr Kellner suggests MPs are often lulled into thinking that a full mailbag of letters on an issue - he cites foxhunting as one - means constituents are enflamed about a subject. |
| And one of the most precarious measures of the public mood comes in the form of the national newspapers. Sometimes, when there is near absolute unity among the editorials, as with the sympathy for the Gurkhas, one may be tempted to rely on the assessment of the mood. But what do you do when four newspapers say one thing and three another? | And one of the most precarious measures of the public mood comes in the form of the national newspapers. Sometimes, when there is near absolute unity among the editorials, as with the sympathy for the Gurkhas, one may be tempted to rely on the assessment of the mood. But what do you do when four newspapers say one thing and three another? |
| And of course, there are many who would question the idea that there is a single coherent public mood to gauge in the first place. A country of 60 million people, with a nebulous mass of differing voices, is not so easy for politicians to keep up with. | And of course, there are many who would question the idea that there is a single coherent public mood to gauge in the first place. A country of 60 million people, with a nebulous mass of differing voices, is not so easy for politicians to keep up with. |
| Here is a selection of your comments. | |
| Whilst it is not difficult to know what people think at times of crisis, what people think is not always well informed and that is where the problem lies. It is too easy for the press and media to rabble rouse and lead opinion over certain issues, such as MPs expenses. It will be far more difficult for them to lead the public over deciding what is fair to pay MPs. I think that whilst the media do all they can to help denigrate politicians and public servants that is their business, what is criminal is the objectiveness of the mass media who on the whole have contributed to the celebrity culture and mass hysteria rampant in our society today. So start by not being so high and mighty and take your responsibility. Politics/news is not entertainment it is the food of democracy. Steve Mogridge, Pulborough | |
| MPs should spend as much time back in their constituency as they do in London, meeting with the people who actually voted them in and getting a feel for the mood and what is important to people on the street, not their own views, they were elect to represent their voters not put their own views forward, which may or may not align with their local supporters. Get back to basics and meet the people for a change, rather than living in the cocoon of Westminster.Terence Ryan, Cramlington | |
| It's a good point that I've never actually contacted my MP, even when I felt strongly on something. The perception is that they're too busy with other, more important things. The fact that as a voter they should be acting "for me" is completely lost. I couldn't feel more disconnected from my MP now that I've realised just how there is zero communication.James B, Sheffield, UK | |
| It's not only MPs that are remote from the people they serve. The judiciary, senior civil servants, directors of large businesses such as banks and other people who occupy senior positions in any organisation are often out of touch with grass roots opinion. Sometimes, of course, it can be an advantage to have a cool detached view of things.Thomas Williams, Windsor | |
| The nature of politics is that it just feeds on itself, rather than reflecting the mood of the public at large. A recent(ish) example was the Tories under Michael Howard, who were obsessed with Europe and the UK's role within it. The Tories made their stance a major plank of their campaign, although it turned out from polls taken before and after the election that Europe was a very low priority amongst electors, coming a long distance behind perennial concerns such as the economy, the health service, law and order etc.Alec Tasker, London, UK | |
| Being a 30 year old single male I am resigned to my demographic being thoroughly ignored by governments of any colour as they only concentrate on the "hard working families". Of all the demographics I contribute the most (tax, NI, petrol, VAT etc) yet take back the least. Stephen, Cardiff | |
| The electorate has become increasingly apathetic about politics and politicians over the last ten or so years, and this current mess has put the tin lid on it. Expect fringe parties to do well in the local elections, and don't be too surprised if there is a ground-swell of public opinion in support of a much-reduced House of Commons. Just about everyone I speak to is of the same opinion - get rid of the lot of 'em and start again from the ground up.Jim Grant, London | |
| Much has been suddenly made of the "Court of Public Opinion", and rightly so. It is now time to include the public in what steps are being taken, not just tell 'em. Of the countless committees that will be formulated to conduct various post mortems into the expenses debacle, I sincerely hope that regular taxpayers are included in these panels. No special qualifications are required, just basic ethics and morals. Only then will the public get a sense of justice and closure. And only then can we start to reverse the fundamental trust and governance issues we all now face.James Doherty, Petworth, West Sussex | |
| There is a fallacy in this article. Don't equate loud emotion, shouting and newspaper headlines for the "mood of the country". I don't know anybody who was angry at the subdued reaction to Diana's death or even that upset beyond "Oh that's sad she's died". I remember that most people I knew were quite bemused at the "Public outpouring of grief" that we saw on TV every night.Michael Bond, Bristol | |
| Perhaps the whole concept of the commons should change. This infrastructure was set up in a time where the views of the many could only be communicated through the views of the few "representatives". However, times have changed. As you state in your article the technology available through sites such as Facebook and Twitter make it very easy to "gauge views". Whilst it would still be hard to decide everything by public vote there are many big issues that could be decided that way through online voting (with suitable security in place). This would ensure that laws being passed were indeed at the "will of the people" rather than the will of a few parties who are currently being heard. Would save us a lot in expenses anyway - less time required for MPs to be in London for votes.Charlie McCabe, Cumbernauld, Glasgow | |
| Protests always bug me, say for instance 150,000 people are in Westminster complaining about X being banned. That means that 59,850,000 people are happy with X being banned. But the commotion caused by the 150,000 skew the politicians view.Dan, Plymouth |