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| How do politicians gauge the public mood? | How do politicians gauge the public mood? |
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| As the MPs' expenses row rolls on, many politicians have been criticised for misjudging public opinion. Is it really so hard to know what millions of people think? | As the MPs' expenses row rolls on, many politicians have been criticised for misjudging public opinion. Is it really so hard to know what millions of people think? |
| Members of Parliament are supposed to be aware of how the public is feeling. After all, it is the populace whose ballot paper crosses brought them into the Commons. | Members of Parliament are supposed to be aware of how the public is feeling. After all, it is the populace whose ballot paper crosses brought them into the Commons. |
| But some have suggested that the row over parliamentary expenses shows they can sometimes fail to track a shift from irritation to full-blown outrage. At times MPs have seemed surprised at the strength of feeling they are encountering from the public. | But some have suggested that the row over parliamentary expenses shows they can sometimes fail to track a shift from irritation to full-blown outrage. At times MPs have seemed surprised at the strength of feeling they are encountering from the public. |
| You can end up with a Westminster-centric view of things, and it's not the real world Baroness MorrisFormer education secretary | You can end up with a Westminster-centric view of things, and it's not the real world Baroness MorrisFormer education secretary |
| At the weekend one newspaper compared events of the past few days to the aftermath of Princess Diana's death in 1997. Then, the monarchy was caught up in a wave of public emotion that led to criticism of what was perceived as a low-key response to the death. | At the weekend one newspaper compared events of the past few days to the aftermath of Princess Diana's death in 1997. Then, the monarchy was caught up in a wave of public emotion that led to criticism of what was perceived as a low-key response to the death. |
| One of the primary conduits to assessing the mood was the press, accompanied by television footage of impromptu public gatherings at Kensington Palace and oceans of flowers. | One of the primary conduits to assessing the mood was the press, accompanied by television footage of impromptu public gatherings at Kensington Palace and oceans of flowers. |
| Today, there is a wealth of other sources to reflect the overall mood, from blogs to social media and the forums on news websites. Even the traditional phone-in now packs more in, rifling through pithy text messages. | Today, there is a wealth of other sources to reflect the overall mood, from blogs to social media and the forums on news websites. Even the traditional phone-in now packs more in, rifling through pithy text messages. |
| And yet it can still sometimes prove difficult for politicians, and particularly those cloistered in the corridors of government, to keep up with the subtly shifting mood during a rapidly-developing event. | And yet it can still sometimes prove difficult for politicians, and particularly those cloistered in the corridors of government, to keep up with the subtly shifting mood during a rapidly-developing event. |
| Public pulse | Public pulse |
| Ordinary people, if asked to gauge the "public mood" might base their assessment on a group of colleagues and friends, and on their encounters with random people while going about their lives - the people they meet on buses and trains, on garage forecourts and in supermarkets and pubs. But if you are prime minister, this barometer of feeling may be slightly harder to access. | Ordinary people, if asked to gauge the "public mood" might base their assessment on a group of colleagues and friends, and on their encounters with random people while going about their lives - the people they meet on buses and trains, on garage forecourts and in supermarkets and pubs. But if you are prime minister, this barometer of feeling may be slightly harder to access. |
| Even ordinary MPs may not always spend enough time milling around ordinary people, suggests Sir Robert Worcester, who has been taking the public pulse since he set up Mori 40 years ago. | Even ordinary MPs may not always spend enough time milling around ordinary people, suggests Sir Robert Worcester, who has been taking the public pulse since he set up Mori 40 years ago. |
| The level of public grief for Princess Diana surprised someEnlarge Image | The level of public grief for Princess Diana surprised someEnlarge Image |
| "When you ask, as we have for 30-something years, questions such as 'have you been in contact with your MP - or even your councillor - in the last two or three years' it is no more than one in 10 who say yes. Even during times of elections it's only 13 or 14%." | "When you ask, as we have for 30-something years, questions such as 'have you been in contact with your MP - or even your councillor - in the last two or three years' it is no more than one in 10 who say yes. Even during times of elections it's only 13 or 14%." |
| Of course, with the advent of universal suffrage in the 20th Century, the number of people politicians have to keep up with is vastly increased. Before the 1832 Reform Act, the UK electorate was in the region of 360,000 voters. Now it approaches 45 million people. | Of course, with the advent of universal suffrage in the 20th Century, the number of people politicians have to keep up with is vastly increased. Before the 1832 Reform Act, the UK electorate was in the region of 360,000 voters. Now it approaches 45 million people. |
| But even with the smaller electorates of yore, there was still an unfranchised mob whose mood needed to be assessed, lest they should riot and rebel. | But even with the smaller electorates of yore, there was still an unfranchised mob whose mood needed to be assessed, lest they should riot and rebel. |
| Perhaps the world's most famous attempt to gauge public opinion is related in the New Testament, when Pontius Pilate asks the crowd whether he should spare Jesus or Barabbas. Even that crowd's response has been interpreted in a number of ways. | Perhaps the world's most famous attempt to gauge public opinion is related in the New Testament, when Pontius Pilate asks the crowd whether he should spare Jesus or Barabbas. Even that crowd's response has been interpreted in a number of ways. |
| Cocooned world | Cocooned world |
| For the modern politician tackling an enfranchised population, engaged with the internet and rolling news, it's all very tricky. The opinion poll is a key tool. | For the modern politician tackling an enfranchised population, engaged with the internet and rolling news, it's all very tricky. The opinion poll is a key tool. |
| In the US political drama The West Wing, President Josiah Bartlet's staff - in their cocooned world - chew their fingernails to the quick in anticipation of a set of poll "numbers". | In the US political drama The West Wing, President Josiah Bartlet's staff - in their cocooned world - chew their fingernails to the quick in anticipation of a set of poll "numbers". |
| They think that is what the world thinks - boy, are they wrong Mori founder Sir Robert Worcester on MP's constituency clubs | |
| Peter Kellner, of pollsters YouGov, says pollsters can give politicians a "broad brush stroke of opinion" at short notice - sometimes as little as two or three hours. | Peter Kellner, of pollsters YouGov, says pollsters can give politicians a "broad brush stroke of opinion" at short notice - sometimes as little as two or three hours. |
| Since 1997 there has been much discussion of the use of focus groups, handfuls of people picked to be representative of a target demographic, then questioned in relative seclusion. The Downing Street website runs an online petition page for the public, where anyone can submit a page saying "We the undersigned petition the prime minister to ". | Since 1997 there has been much discussion of the use of focus groups, handfuls of people picked to be representative of a target demographic, then questioned in relative seclusion. The Downing Street website runs an online petition page for the public, where anyone can submit a page saying "We the undersigned petition the prime minister to ". |
| But many politicians set the most store by what they encounter on their home turf, well away from the "Westminster Village". | But many politicians set the most store by what they encounter on their home turf, well away from the "Westminster Village". |
| Estelle Morris, former education secretary and now Baroness Morris of Yardley, says MPs away from their constituents - especially ministers who find themselves in Whitehall - may lose that common touch. | Estelle Morris, former education secretary and now Baroness Morris of Yardley, says MPs away from their constituents - especially ministers who find themselves in Whitehall - may lose that common touch. |
| Local pub | Local pub |
| "There's a danger that you end up relying on the media, and that's not accurate. You can end up with a Westminster-centric view of things, and it's not the real world." | "There's a danger that you end up relying on the media, and that's not accurate. You can end up with a Westminster-centric view of things, and it's not the real world." |
| She says the answer is simple - get back to your constituency - visit the shops, ring the local residents committees, have a drink in a local pub. | She says the answer is simple - get back to your constituency - visit the shops, ring the local residents committees, have a drink in a local pub. |
| Estelle Morris says MPs should get back and talk to locals | Estelle Morris says MPs should get back and talk to locals |
| "Journalists who don't get out of London on the weekend sometimes underestimate that. Your constituency is often a microcosm of what people think." | "Journalists who don't get out of London on the weekend sometimes underestimate that. Your constituency is often a microcosm of what people think." |
| Olly Grender, of lobbying and public relations firm PLMR and director of communications for the Lib Dems between 1990-95, concurs. | Olly Grender, of lobbying and public relations firm PLMR and director of communications for the Lib Dems between 1990-95, concurs. |
| "If you looked at a diary of most good constituency MPs they are out of their offices more than many people. They will have an evening surgery, they will have shopped in some local shops - most of them are knocking on doors. They will keep an eye on their local media." | "If you looked at a diary of most good constituency MPs they are out of their offices more than many people. They will have an evening surgery, they will have shopped in some local shops - most of them are knocking on doors. They will keep an eye on their local media." |
| And of course, the 21st Century approach runs in parallel. "Quite a lot of them are on Facebook and Twitter." | And of course, the 21st Century approach runs in parallel. "Quite a lot of them are on Facebook and Twitter." |
| But not everybody is totally convinced that MPs are getting a representative sample of the hoi polloi. | But not everybody is totally convinced that MPs are getting a representative sample of the hoi polloi. |
| The problem is, Sir Robert says, MPs equate time spent with supporters at constituency clubs with getting in touch with what the public is thinking. | The problem is, Sir Robert says, MPs equate time spent with supporters at constituency clubs with getting in touch with what the public is thinking. |
| "They think that is what the world thinks. Boy, are they wrong. They are their supporters, they're the people saying, 'Don't worry Charlie, what you're doing is fine'." | |
| Fellow pollster Mr Kellner suggests MPs are often lulled into thinking that a full mailbag of letters on an issue - he cites foxhunting as one - means constituents are enflamed about a subject. | Fellow pollster Mr Kellner suggests MPs are often lulled into thinking that a full mailbag of letters on an issue - he cites foxhunting as one - means constituents are enflamed about a subject. |
| And one of the most precarious measures of the public mood comes in the form of the national newspapers. Sometimes, when there is near absolute unity among the editorials, as with the sympathy for the Gurkhas, one may be tempted to rely on the assessment of the mood. But what do you do when four newspapers say one thing and three another? | And one of the most precarious measures of the public mood comes in the form of the national newspapers. Sometimes, when there is near absolute unity among the editorials, as with the sympathy for the Gurkhas, one may be tempted to rely on the assessment of the mood. But what do you do when four newspapers say one thing and three another? |
| And of course, there are many who would question the idea that there is a single coherent public mood to gauge in the first place. A country of 60 million people, with a nebulous mass of differing voices, is not so easy for politicians to keep up with. | And of course, there are many who would question the idea that there is a single coherent public mood to gauge in the first place. A country of 60 million people, with a nebulous mass of differing voices, is not so easy for politicians to keep up with. |
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