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Ukraine conflict: Can peace plan in east finally bring peace? Ukraine conflict: Can peace plan in east finally bring peace?
(3 days later)
After five and a half years of conflict in eastern Ukraine, military and diplomatic moves have begun with the aim of securing peace. After five and a half years of conflict in eastern Ukraine, a Paris summit has resulted in some progress towards a peace settlement.
Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have pulled back from three frontline towns and the stage is set for the first leaders' summit in years. Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have pulled back from three frontline towns.
The story is moving fast. Let's break it down. There is now momentum towards a de-escalation, after landmark talks between Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. But there is still a long way to go.
In April Ukraine elected as president Volodymyr Zelensky, whose main goal was peace in the east.
More than 13,000 people have died in the conflict between Ukraine's military and Russian-backed rebels.More than 13,000 people have died in the conflict between Ukraine's military and Russian-backed rebels.
Mr Zelensky is a political novice, a former comic actor, but more than half of Ukrainians have backed his push for a solution. Mr Putin and Mr Zelensky agreed that by the end of this year an existing ceasefire - frequently violated - would be fully implemented and all remaining prisoners would be exchanged.
To secure a Paris summit on 9 December with Russian President Vladimir Putin and leaders of France and Germany, Ukraine has had to accept conditions. The Paris summit on 9 December, mediated by France and Germany, was the first between Mr Zelensky and Mr Putin. But their body language remained chilly and there was no final handshake.
These include a withdrawal co-ordinated with separatists from three frontline towns. Opponents condemned the moves as a "capitulation" to Russia. Mr Zelensky, a former comic actor, was elected president in April, having set peace in the east as his main goal.
President Zelensky said he would talk even to "the devil" to bring peace to eastern Ukraine but some in Kyiv fear he is in too much of a hurry and risks falling into a Russian trap. Before the summit could take place Mr Zelensky had to accept a 2016 deal, offering special status to the separatist-held parts of Ukraine's Donbas region and a troop disengagement at three places on the frontline.
The chances of a successful outcome in Paris seem unlikely, but this is the first leaders' summit for over three years and the atmosphere has improved. Russia has spoken of "very cautious optimism". The pull-back was achieved in Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote and Petrivske.
Before the summit could take place President Zelensky had to accept a 2016 deal granting special status to the separatist-held parts of Ukraine's Donbas region, and troops had to disengage from three places on the frontline.
The "Steinmeier formula" aims to break the impasse over peace agreements reached at the height of the fighting. It details free and fair elections in the east under Ukrainian law, verification by the OSCE international security organisation, and then self-governing status in return.The "Steinmeier formula" aims to break the impasse over peace agreements reached at the height of the fighting. It details free and fair elections in the east under Ukrainian law, verification by the OSCE international security organisation, and then self-governing status in return.
Russian politicians hailed the signing of the deal in principle as a victory for Russian diplomacy. In Paris both sides pledged to work towards holding those local elections. But there is no agreement yet on the election timing and technicalities. They plan to hold another summit in four months' time.
Ukrainian critics fear Kyiv could be bounced into legitimising Russian occupation of the Donbas, with a vote before Russian-backed forces withdraw and before Ukraine's military regains control of the 400km (249-mile) stretch of border with Russia. They also plan to pull troops back from three more frontline areas by March 2020.
Although Mr Zelensky achieved success at home with an eye-catching prisoner swap, his initial broad popularity has declined. He has promised Ukrainians that he will never agree to elections in the east "under the barrel of a gun". Mr Zelensky is under strong pressure in Kyiv to avoid any "capitulation" to Russia, seen as an aggressor for its intervention in the east.
The conflict in the east broke out when Russian-backed separatists seized territory in April 2014, after Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula. Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia in March 2014, is not on the table in these talks. The Russian-backed insurgency against Kyiv spread to Donbas in April 2014.
Moscow has always denied sending regular troops to Donbas, but admits that "Russian volunteers" are fighting there. A key sticking point is the issue of Ukraine regaining control of the 400km (249-mile) border between the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and Russia.
Aside from the dreadful human toll of the dead and wounded, more than 1.5 million people have been internally displaced by the conflict. Mr Putin insisted that the border question could only be addressed after elections in the separatist-held areas.
Volodymyr Zelensky came to power with a decisive election victory over President Petro Poroshenko in April, winning more than 73% of the vote. In Paris he said the peace process "is developing in the right direction". And Mr Zelensky was likewise cautious. "Let's say for now it's a draw," he said.
Millions of Ukrainians wanted to get rid of what they saw as corrupt political elites, but they also put their faith in a 41-year-old comedian-turned-politician who offered a route to peace after more than five years of fighting. According to Western intelligence, Russia has sent regular troops and heavy weapons to help the Donbas separatists. Moscow denies that, but admits that "Russian volunteers" are fighting there.
Backed by a popular mandate, he set about fulfilling the conditions for a summit - withdrawing from three frontline towns. The conflict has displaced more than 1.5 million people - and that complicates plans to hold elections in rebel-held areas.
In June, Ukrainian troops and separatists withdrew a kilometre from Stanytsia Luhanska. By late October, Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed separatists had disengaged from Zolote and early in November they pulled back from Petrivske. French President Emmanuel Macron said the Russian and Ukrainian leaders would hold summit talks again in four months' time.
On a visit to Zolote Mr Zelensky told war veterans Ukrainians wanted a withdrawal and something had to be done to end the war. By that time, according to their Paris joint statement, Ukrainian and separatist forces will have pulled back from three more frontline areas. Another 77 Ukrainian prisoners are set to be released by the end of 2019 in exchange for 88 prisoners held by the rebels.
Although Mr Zelensky achieved success at home with a long-awaited prisoner swap with Russia in September, his initial broad popularity has declined. He described that swap as a "victory" that emerged from personal phone contact with Mr Putin.
He was elected in April with a landslide win against President Petro Poroshenko.
Millions of Ukrainians wanted to get rid of what they saw as corrupt politicians, but they also put their faith in Mr Zelensky to re-energise the deadlocked peace talks.
On a visit to Zolote, Mr Zelensky told war veterans Ukrainians wanted a withdrawal and something had to be done to end the war.
But in his push to secure a summit, some of his popularity drained away.But in his push to secure a summit, some of his popularity drained away.
Meanwhile, work began to restore the destroyed bridge at Stanytsia Luhanska - a key crossing used every day by thousands of people on both sides. Russia and Ukraine have long argued over terms for the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine, but now there is a new willingness to reach a deal on that.
Mr Zelensky achieved popular success in September, with a long-awaited prisoner swap with Russia. Mr Zelensky points to that as a "victory" that emerged from personal phone contact with the Russian president. Before the summit, work began to restore the destroyed bridge at Stanytsia Luhanska - a key crossing used every day by thousands of people on both sides.
Significantly, on 1 October, Ukraine, Russia and the separatists agreed on special status for separatist-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Significantly, on 1 October, Ukraine, Russia and the separatists agreed on special status for separatist-held parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The separatists have declared independence, but their so-called republics are not recognised.
That signing was Moscow's key pre-condition for the 9 December summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany - known as the Normandy format. That signing in October was Moscow's key pre-condition for the Paris summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany - known as the Normandy format.
Moscow and Kyiv have interpreted the so-called Steinmeier formula differently, but Russian media have described a plan that brings:Moscow and Kyiv have interpreted the so-called Steinmeier formula differently, but Russian media have described a plan that brings:
"It is our serious success," said Russian Senator Aleksey Pushkov.
Russia is also keen to secure an amnesty for the rebels.Russia is also keen to secure an amnesty for the rebels.
Ukrainian nationalists say the deal amounts to a surrender to Russia and are unconvinced by the president's assurances. Mr Putin says both sides must stick to the terms of the 2015 Minsk ceasefire deal. However, that framework for peace was soon violated and Ukraine wants to recover full control over its borders before Donbas elections, not after as stated in the Minsk deal.
"There is no alternative to the Minsk agreements and everything needs to be done to put them into action," Mr Putin said in Paris.
Ukrainian nationalists suspect Mr Zelensky of negotiating a surrender to Russia and are unconvinced by his assurances.
Mr Zelensky has set out a series of objectives and red lines:Mr Zelensky has set out a series of objectives and red lines:
Despite his guarantees, protests have been held across Ukraine, with Mr Zelensky's opponents arguing implementation of the deal could result in Russian occupation of the Donbas being legitimised.Despite his guarantees, protests have been held across Ukraine, with Mr Zelensky's opponents arguing implementation of the deal could result in Russian occupation of the Donbas being legitimised.
The Ukrainian president's opponents say he should not trust President Putin. The BBC's Jonah Fisher in Kyiv says it is hard to see how the proposed elections would be fairly contested, even if held under Ukrainian law. Most people with strongly pro-Ukrainian views left the rebel-held areas long ago.
"I sincerely advise to avoid meeting one-on-one with Putin, and if this is impossible, resist his KGB manipulations and flattery," said ex-President Petro Poroshenko.
Another unknown factor is the role of the leaders of France and Germany. Will France's President Macron view the summit as a chance to reset relations with Russia?
One former Ukrainian negotiator warned of the risk of going down a "path to war, not to peace".
The BBC's Jonah Fisher in Kyiv says it is hard to see how the proposed elections would be fairly contested, even if held under Ukrainian law.
Most people with strongly pro-Ukrainian views left the rebel-held areas long ago, and Mr Zelensky's critics in Ukraine warn that proposed the deal could amount to a capitulation.