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Ukraine conflict: Can peace plan in east finally bring peace? Ukraine conflict: Can peace plan in east finally bring peace?
(about 1 month later)
Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have begun pulling back from a town on the front line in eastern Ukraine. After five and a half years of conflict in eastern Ukraine, military and diplomatic moves have begun with the aim of securing peace.
The withdrawal comes more than five years since conflict in the east began and months after Ukrainians elected a new president. Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have pulled back from three frontline towns and the stage is set for the first leaders' summit in years.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has backed in principle an agreement to bring elections to the territories controlled by the separatists amid hopes that it will eventually bring the conflict that has claimed more than 13,000 lives to an end.
But Ukrainian opponents see the deal as a "capitulation" to Russia.
The story is moving fast. Let's break it down.The story is moving fast. Let's break it down.
After triumphing in Ukraine's presidential election in April, Mr Zelensky said his main goal was to bring peace. In April Ukraine elected as president Volodymyr Zelensky, whose main goal was peace in the east.
On 1 October, Ukraine, Russia and the separatists agreed in principle to hold local elections in the separatist-held east and then - if the poll is seen as free - Ukraine would grant special status to the region. More than 13,000 people have died in the conflict between Ukraine's military and Russian-backed rebels.
Then, on 29 October, Ukrainian troops and separatists began withdrawing from the frontline town of Zolote. Mr Zelensky is a political novice, a former comic actor, but more than half of Ukrainians have backed his push for a solution.
But Ukrainian war veterans and nationalists oppose the pull-out. To secure a Paris summit on 9 December with Russian President Vladimir Putin and leaders of France and Germany, Ukraine has had to accept conditions.
They complain the deal allows elections before a complete separatist withdrawal and before Kyiv has control of the border with Russia. These include a withdrawal co-ordinated with separatists from three frontline towns. Opponents condemned the moves as a "capitulation" to Russia.
President Zelensky has said he is ready to talk even to "the devil" to bring peace to Ukraine. President Zelensky said he would talk even to "the devil" to bring peace to eastern Ukraine but some in Kyiv fear he is in too much of a hurry and risks falling into a Russian trap.
Once troops have left the frontline town of Zolote, the plan is to pull out of nearby Petrivske too. The chances of a successful outcome in Paris seem unlikely, but this is the first leaders' summit for over three years and the atmosphere has improved. Russia has spoken of "very cautious optimism".
The deal backed by President Zelensky, known as the "Steinmeier formula", would grant special status to the separatist-held parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, collectively known as the Donbas. Before the summit could take place President Zelensky had to accept a 2016 deal granting special status to the separatist-held parts of Ukraine's Donbas region, and troops had to disengage from three places on the frontline.
The agreement aims to break the impasse over a 2015 peace deal (the Minsk agreements). The "Steinmeier formula" aims to break the impasse over peace agreements reached at the height of the fighting. It details free and fair elections in the east under Ukrainian law, verification by the OSCE international security organisation, and then self-governing status in return.
Proposed in 2016 by Germany's then-foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the plan details free and fair elections in the east under Ukrainian law, verification by the OSCE international security organisation, and then self-governing status in return. Russian politicians hailed the signing of the deal in principle as a victory for Russian diplomacy.
Russian politicians described the signing of the deal in principle as a victory for Russian diplomacy. Ukrainian critics fear Kyiv could be bounced into legitimising Russian occupation of the Donbas, with a vote before Russian-backed forces withdraw and before Ukraine's military regains control of the 400km (249-mile) stretch of border with Russia.
This was Moscow's key pre-condition before a summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany - known as the Normandy format - could be held. If the withdrawal from Zolote and Petrivske works out, that summit could go ahead as early as November. Although Mr Zelensky achieved success at home with an eye-catching prisoner swap, his initial broad popularity has declined. He has promised Ukrainians that he will never agree to elections in the east "under the barrel of a gun".
But Ukrainian opponents fear this could result in the legitimisation of the Russian occupation of the Donbas, with a vote before Russian-backed forces withdraw and before Kyiv regains control of the 400km (249-mile) stretch of border with Russia. The conflict in the east broke out when Russian-backed separatists seized territory in April 2014, after Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula.
They are unconvinced by Mr Zelensky's promise that such elections cannot be held "under the barrel of a gun". Moscow has always denied sending regular troops to Donbas, but admits that "Russian volunteers" are fighting there.
War veterans and nationalists tried to stop the troop pullout going ahead in Zolote and days before the withdrawal they confronted the president on a visit there. Aside from the dreadful human toll of the dead and wounded, more than 1.5 million people have been internally displaced by the conflict.
The conflict in the east broke out in April 2014, a month after Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula. Volodymyr Zelensky came to power with a decisive election victory over President Petro Poroshenko in April, winning more than 73% of the vote.
Moscow denies sending its regular troops to Donbas, but admits that "Russian volunteers" are fighting there.
At least 13,000 people have been killed and more than 1.5 million people are internally displaced.
President Zelensky is still riding high in opinion polls in Ukraine, six months after he thrashed incumbent Petro Poroshenko with more than 73% of the vote.
Millions of Ukrainians wanted to get rid of what they saw as corrupt political elites, but they also put their faith in a 41-year-old comedian-turned-politician who offered a route to peace after more than five years of fighting.Millions of Ukrainians wanted to get rid of what they saw as corrupt political elites, but they also put their faith in a 41-year-old comedian-turned-politician who offered a route to peace after more than five years of fighting.
His first weeks in office proved that he was certainly trying. Backed by a popular mandate, he set about fulfilling the conditions for a summit - withdrawing from three frontline towns.
In June, Ukrainian troops and separatists withdrew a kilometre from the frontline town of Stanytsia Luhanska. In June, Ukrainian troops and separatists withdrew a kilometre from Stanytsia Luhanska. By late October, Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed separatists had disengaged from Zolote and early in November they pulled back from Petrivske.
The following month, work began to restore the destroyed bridge in the town - a key crossing used every day by thousands of people on both sides of the line of separation. On a visit to Zolote Mr Zelensky told war veterans Ukrainians wanted a withdrawal and something had to be done to end the war.
In September, a long-awaited delayed prisoner swap with Russia was finally completed. But in his push to secure a summit, some of his popularity drained away.
On 1 October, Ukraine, Russia and the separatists agreed the deal to bring special status to the separatist-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Meanwhile, work began to restore the destroyed bridge at Stanytsia Luhanska - a key crossing used every day by thousands of people on both sides.
Then, after several false starts, Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed separatists began to disengage from the frontline town of Zolote on 29 October, launching green and white flares as they prepared to move out. Mr Zelensky achieved popular success in September, with a long-awaited prisoner swap with Russia. Mr Zelensky points to that as a "victory" that emerged from personal phone contact with the Russian president.
There have been different interpretations of the so-called Steinmeier formula by Moscow and Kyiv, but Russian media have published what they said was the text of the deal for a vote in the east followed by self-governing status. Significantly, on 1 October, Ukraine, Russia and the separatists agreed on special status for separatist-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
They say the plan envisages that: That signing was Moscow's key pre-condition for the 9 December summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany - known as the Normandy format.
Moscow and Kyiv have interpreted the so-called Steinmeier formula differently, but Russian media have described a plan that brings:
"It is our serious success," said Russian Senator Aleksey Pushkov."It is our serious success," said Russian Senator Aleksey Pushkov.
The signing of the deal was Moscow's key pre-condition for a summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany - known as the Normandy format. Russia is also keen to secure an amnesty for the rebels.
But Ukrainian nationalists say the deal amounts to a surrender to Russia. Ukrainian nationalists say the deal amounts to a surrender to Russia and are unconvinced by the president's assurances.
The nationalists are unconvinced by Mr Zelensky's promises to safeguard Ukraine's interests and not to cross his "red lines", set out in an urgent news briefing after the deal was signed: Mr Zelensky has set out a series of objectives and red lines:
He has also demanded the return of all Ukrainian prisoners held in Russia. Despite his guarantees, protests have been held across Ukraine, with Mr Zelensky's opponents arguing implementation of the deal could result in Russian occupation of the Donbas being legitimised.
Despite his guarantees, protests have been held across Ukraine, with Mr Zelensky's opponents arguing that implementation of the deal could result in the legitimisation of the Russian occupation of the Donbas. The Ukrainian president's opponents say he should not trust President Putin.
Shots were fired into the air and there were skirmishes with police, when war veterans first tried to prevent the troop pullout from Zolote and Petrivske. "I sincerely advise to avoid meeting one-on-one with Putin, and if this is impossible, resist his KGB manipulations and flattery," said ex-President Petro Poroshenko.
When Mr Zelensky visited Zolote, he told veterans that Ukrainians wanted a withdrawal and something had to be done to end the war. Another unknown factor is the role of the leaders of France and Germany. Will France's President Macron view the summit as a chance to reset relations with Russia?
Former President Petro Poroshenko has warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is simply trying to interpret the deal in Moscow's favour. One former Ukrainian negotiator warned of the risk of going down a "path to war, not to peace".
Ex-foreign minister Pavlo Klimkin warned: "Society will be demanding answers, and these answers should not be solving the issue of Donbas occupation at Ukraine's expense."
One former Ukrainian negotiator warned it was a "path to war, not to peace", while rock singer Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, who leads the Voice party in Ukraine, called on the president to explain the concessions he was ready to make.
The BBC's Jonah Fisher in Kyiv says it is hard to see how the proposed elections would be fairly contested, even if held under Ukrainian law.The BBC's Jonah Fisher in Kyiv says it is hard to see how the proposed elections would be fairly contested, even if held under Ukrainian law.
Most people with strongly pro-Ukrainian views left the occupied areas long ago, and Mr Zelensky's critics in Ukraine warn that such a deal with the separatists and their Russian backers could amount to a capitulation. Most people with strongly pro-Ukrainian views left the rebel-held areas long ago, and Mr Zelensky's critics in Ukraine warn that proposed the deal could amount to a capitulation.