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Could there be an early general election? Could there be an early general election?
(14 days later)
There is already talk of a third attempt to hold an early general election, after MPs' return to Parliament. A vote on the Queen's Speech is among a number of possible triggers for an early general election.
But why were the previous efforts unsuccessful and why does Prime Minister Boris Johnson want an election anyway? But how soon could an election happen and why does Prime Minister Boris Johnson want one?
Why does the prime minister want an early election? Why does Boris Johnson want an early election?
The next election isn't due until 2022 - but Mr Johnson wants an early election to try to restore the Conservative Party's majority in the Commons. The next election isn't due until 2022 - but the PM wants an early election to try to restore the Conservative Party's ruling majority in the Commons.
At the moment, if every non-Conservative MP voted against the government, it would lose by 43 votes. At the moment, if every opposition MP voted against the government, it would lose by 45 votes.
While calling an early election carries risks, Mr Johnson would aim to end the political stalemate and make it easier to deliver Brexit. But while calling an early election carries risks, Mr Johnson would hope to end the political stalemate and make it easier to deliver Brexit.
Why can't the government just call an early election? How quickly can an election happen?
Prime ministers used to be able to call an early election at the time of their choosing. But under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA), Mr Johnson now needs the support of two-thirds of MPs - at least 434 - to trigger an early poll. Once an election is called, there has to be a gap of at least five weeks before polling day.
The prime minister has already tried this route twice but the Commons blocked it. Many MPs say they did not believe Mr Johnson's assurances an election would be held before the 31 October Brexit deadline. That's because the law requires Parliament to dissolve 25 working days before the election.
They worry this could lead to a no-deal Brexit. At this point, politicians stop being MPs and campaign for re-election, if they choose to stand again.
That's because the prime minister chooses the election date. Under the FTPA, MPs simply vote on whether they agree with the statement "that there shall be an early parliamentary general election". Why hasn't an election already been called?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says he will support an early election but only once the Brexit deadline has been extended. In September, the prime minister twice challenged MPs to hold an early election - only to be rejected both times.
What happens if MPs vote to trigger an early election? Mr Johnson can't just decide to hold an early election. He needs the support of two-thirds of MPs - at least 434. This is a legal requirement, set out under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA).
It is possible the government will make a third attempt to hold an early election. Opposition parties said they would not agree to an early election while there was still a possibility of a no-deal Brexit on 31 October. They said they didn't trust the PM to stick to a pledge to hold an election beforehand.
While it's unlikely MPs will support this, if it was successful, the prime minister would then recommend the date of the poll to the Queen. Will the outcome of the Brexit talks lead to an election?
Parliament would then be dissolved 25 working days before an election takes place. At this point, politicians stop being MPs and campaign for re-election, if they choose to stand again. Should the prime minister fail to reach a deal with the EU by 19 October- or persuade MPs to support one that is agreed - a law called the Benn Act comes into play. If Mr Johnson complies, he must ask for a Brexit extension into the new year.
But given the amount of time it takes to organise an election, it won't be possible to hold one by 31 October. It is possible that this would see more MPs back a call for an early election.
So, the earliest possible date for an election would be early November - and even that's assuming MPs back an election vote immediately. What role could the Queen's Speech play?
Does the prime minister have other options? A Queen's Speech - which provides the government with an opportunity to highlight its forthcoming priorities - is due on 14 October.
While the FTPA requires a two-thirds majority to hold an early election, it is not impossible for a government to get round this requirement. MPs will then debate its contents, followed by a vote, which is usually held four or five days later.
It's extremely rare for a government to lose a Queen's Speech vote, but Mr Johnson goes into it off the back of seven Commons defeats.
By voting against the Queen's Speech, MPs would be rejecting Mr Johnson's programme for government.
This would lead to pressure on all parties to back an early election. This could happen in a number of ways.
A vote under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act
After a Queen's Speech defeat, the government could once again ask MPs to support an early election.
However, another vote under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act would still require at least two-thirds of MPs to agree.
Bypass the Fixed-term Parliaments Act
If the government felt it couldn't reach the two-thirds threshold, it may try to get round the requirement altogether.
It could do so by introducing a very short law that calls for an election and adds "notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act".It could do so by introducing a very short law that calls for an election and adds "notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act".
The advantage of this route, from the government's point of view, is it would require only a simple majority of MPs to support it (more voting for than against) rather than two-thirds. The advantage of this route - from the government's point of view - is that it would only require a simple majority of MPs to support it rather than two-thirds.
It would also allow an election date to be set in stone, which might make some MPs more likely to vote for it - although, there's still no guarantee the government would win. But it would also need to clear all stages in the House of Commons and the House of Lords. That means there's a risk the law could be sabotaged if MPs or peers propose changes to the wording.
However, this route would mean an election would take longer to organise. That's because the proposed law would need to clear the House of Lords, as well as the House of Commons. Labour calls a motion of no confidence
What about an election through a no-confidence motion? Labour could choose to hold a no-confidence vote.
A third possible route to an early election is through a motion of no confidence in the government. This would give all MPs a vote on whether they wanted the current government to continue. Only a simple majority would be needed.
Some Conservatives are actively encouraging the opposition to do this. The Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, has goaded Labour, claiming it is "too cowardly to give it a go". If it succeeded, opposition parties would be allowed two weeks to come together to try to form an alternative government. If this happened, Mr Johnson would be expected to resign and a new prime minister would take over.
If the opposition called for a no-confidence vote, MPs would then decide whether they wanted the current government to continue. But if nothing was resolved during those two weeks, the FTPA says a general election would be automatically triggered.
If the vote passed, opposition parties would be allowed two weeks to come together to try to form an alternative government. Under this scenario, an election would take place at least seven weeks after a no-confidence vote was passed. That's because two weeks would be taken up by opposition parties trying to form a government, plus a further five weeks to dissolve Parliament for the campaign.
If this happened, Mr Johnson would be expected to resign and a new prime minister would take over. Government calls a motion of no confidence in itself
But if nothing was resolved during those two weeks, a general election would be automatically triggered. If the government felt it had no other way of forcing an early election, it could in theory call a motion of no confidence in itself.
From Labour's point of view, if a vote of no confidence was called now and resulted in a general election, it would mean the campaign would take place over 31 October - a situation that could risk a no-deal Brexit. In order for it to succeed, Conservative MPs would have to vote to bring down their own government.
This is why Labour is reluctant to call one right now. While such a tactic might appear extreme to outside observers, it would trigger an automatic early election - as long as opposition parties failed to form an alternative government within the 14 days.
If the government felt it had no other way of triggering an early election, it could in theory call a motion of no confidence in itself. As such, this option would be extremely high risk.
Normally, such a situation would be extremely unlikely, according to Catherine Haddon, from the Institute for Government think tank. Brexit explained
"But in the current climate, anything is possible", she adds. Brexit - British exit - refers to the UK leaving the EU. A public vote was held in June 2016, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain.
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