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Could there be an early general election? Could there be an early general election?
(17 days later)
MPs have twice rejected Prime Minister Boris Johnson's call for an early general election on 15 October, ahead of a crucial European Union summit. There is already talk of a third attempt to hold an early general election, after MPs' return to Parliament.
Why was Mr Johnson unable to call an election and what are his options? But why were the previous efforts unsuccessful and why does Prime Minister Boris Johnson want an election anyway?
Why does the PM want an early election? Why does the prime minister want an early election?
Mr Johnson wants an early election to restore the Conservative Party's majority in the Commons. The next election isn't due until 2022 - but Mr Johnson wants an early election to try to restore the Conservative Party's majority in the Commons.
At the moment, if every non-Conservative MP voted against the government, it would lose by 43 votes.
While calling an early election carries risks, Mr Johnson would aim to end the political stalemate and make it easier to deliver Brexit.While calling an early election carries risks, Mr Johnson would aim to end the political stalemate and make it easier to deliver Brexit.
Why did Mr Johnson lose last week's vote? Why can't the government just call an early election?
Prime ministers used to be able to call an early election at the time of their choosing. But under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, Mr Johnson now needs the support of two-thirds of MPs - at least 434 - to trigger an early poll. Prime ministers used to be able to call an early election at the time of their choosing. But under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA), Mr Johnson now needs the support of two-thirds of MPs - at least 434 - to trigger an early poll.
However, he no longer has a Commons majority. The prime minister has already tried this route twice but the Commons blocked it. Many MPs say they did not believe Mr Johnson's assurances an election would be held before the 31 October Brexit deadline.
Many MPs were worried that Mr Johnson would not stick to his pledge to hold the election on 15 October. They worry this could lead to a no-deal Brexit.
A motion, under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, to call an early election does not specify the day it is to take place. MPs simply vote on whether they agree with the statement "that there shall be an early parliamentary general election". That's because the prime minister chooses the election date. Under the FTPA, MPs simply vote on whether they agree with the statement "that there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
Senior Labour figures said they would not vote for an early election while there was a risk the prime minister could move the poll to after 31 October - by which point the UK would have left the European Union. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says he will support an early election but only once the Brexit deadline has been extended.
How soon could an election happen? What happens if MPs vote to trigger an early election?
If enough MPs support an early election, the prime minister recommends the date of the poll to the Queen. It is possible the government will make a third attempt to hold an early election.
Parliament would then be dissolved 25 working days before an election takes place. At this point, politicians stop being MPs and they campaign for re-election, if they choose to stand again. While it's unlikely MPs will support this, if it was successful, the prime minister would then recommend the date of the poll to the Queen.
Now that Parliament has been prorogued - that is, suspended - MPs will not have another chance to vote for an early election until 14 October, when they return. Were they to do so, the earliest an election could be held would be 19 November. Parliament would then be dissolved 25 working days before an election takes place. At this point, politicians stop being MPs and campaign for re-election, if they choose to stand again.
However, by convention members debate and vote on a Queen's Speech at the beginning of a new session of Parliament after prorogation. But given the amount of time it takes to organise an election, it won't be possible to hold one by 31 October.
This can take around five days, meaning the date for a new election would be later than 19 November. So, the earliest possible date for an election would be early November - and even that's assuming MPs back an election vote immediately.
Does the PM have other options? Does the prime minister have other options?
While the Fixed Term Parliaments Act requires a two-thirds majority to sanction an early election, it is not impossible for a government to get round this requirement. While the FTPA requires a two-thirds majority to hold an early election, it is not impossible for a government to get round this requirement.
It could be achieved by introducing a very short law that calls for an election and adds "notwithstanding the Fixed Term Parliaments Act". It could do so by introducing a very short law that calls for an election and adds "notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act".
The advantage of this route, from the government's point of view, is that it would only require a simple majority of MPs to support it (more voting for than against) rather than two-thirds. The advantage of this route, from the government's point of view, is it would require only a simple majority of MPs to support it (more voting for than against) rather than two-thirds.
It would also allow an election date to be set in stone, which might make some MPs more likely to vote for it - although there is no guarantee the government would win. It would also allow an election date to be set in stone, which might make some MPs more likely to vote for it - although, there's still no guarantee the government would win.
However, this route would take longer. The proposed law would need to clear the House of Lords, as well as the House of Commons. Given that Parliament is due to prorogue (or shut down) this week, getting the legislation passed would be a race against time. However, this route would mean an election would take longer to organise. That's because the proposed law would need to clear the House of Lords, as well as the House of Commons.
There is also a risk that the legislation could be amended - allowing pro-Remain MPs to make changes, such as forcing a further Brexit extension. What about an election through a no-confidence motion?
The government could also ask the Queen to end prorogation early and hold a vote as soon as MPs come back, although this seems unlikely. A third possible route to an early election is through a motion of no confidence in the government.
High-risk options Some Conservatives are actively encouraging the opposition to do this. The Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, has goaded Labour, claiming it is "too cowardly to give it a go".
There is a third, extremely high-risk option. If the government was absolutely determined to hold an early election it could, in theory, call a vote of no confidence in itself. If the opposition called for a no-confidence vote, MPs would then decide whether they wanted the current government to continue.
If it chose to do this, MPs would have to decide whether they want the current government to continue. If the vote passed, opposition parties would be allowed two weeks to come together to try to form an alternative government.
If such a vote passes, opposition parties would be allowed two weeks to come together to try to form an alternative government. If this happened, Mr Johnson would be expected to resign and a new prime minister could request a further Brexit delay to prevent a no-deal outcome. If this happened, Mr Johnson would be expected to resign and a new prime minister would take over.
But, if nothing is resolved after 14 days, a general election is automatically triggered. But if nothing was resolved during those two weeks, a general election would be automatically triggered.
However, this would be a high stakes strategy, as it completely relies on opposition parties failing to form an alternative government. From Labour's point of view, if a vote of no confidence was called now and resulted in a general election, it would mean the campaign would take place over 31 October - a situation that could risk a no-deal Brexit.
Catherine Haddon, from the Institute for Government think tank, says the chances of the government calling such a vote are "extremely unlikely". This is why Labour is reluctant to call one right now.
"From a political point of view, calling a vote of no confidence in yourself would look mad," she says. If the government felt it had no other way of triggering an early election, it could in theory call a motion of no confidence in itself.
Normally, such a situation would be extremely unlikely, according to Catherine Haddon, from the Institute for Government think tank.
"But in the current climate, anything is possible", she adds.