This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jan/05/uk-car-sales-brexit-us-unemployment-stock-markets-business-live
The article has changed 18 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 9 | Version 10 |
|---|---|
| US economy created just 148,000 jobs in December as retailers lay off staff - business live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Kully Samra, UK Managing Director at Charles Schwab, says: | |
| “The US economy ended on a mixed note in 2017. | |
| However, despite disappointing job numbers, over the year average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5%. In addition, we have seen the economy grow quarter on quarter, manufacturing and services indices rise and other factors such as business confidence and housing are also picking up. | |
| Here’s Ian Kernohan, economist at Royal London Asset Management, on today’s Non-Farm Payroll: | |
| “There was something for everyone in the latest US Labour Market Report. On the one hand, employment growth slipped below 200,000 after a couple of strong months, while on the other, the headline rate of unemployment remained very low at just 4.1%, on an unchanged participation rate. Wage growth ticked higher to 2.5%, still a very modest rate despite the sharp fall in unemployment over the past few years. | |
| “The Federal Reserve puts much more weight on labour market data than on any other information, including the volatile and often misleading early estimates for GDP. Most survey based indicators of economic growth are strong in the US, and while the current severe weather is bound to impact economic activity in Q1, the Fed tend to look through these events, and are still on track to raise interest rates once again in March.” | |
| Jobs site Indeed.com have made a handy charts showing where jobs were created, or destroyed, last month across the US economy: | |
| Construction and information led job growth in December, with manufacturing picking up steam. Retail lost jobs -- again. pic.twitter.com/VcicEJOYZb | |
| Ben Casselman of the New York Times is also worried by the fall in retail jobs | |
| Weird few months for retail. But the big picture is clear: big job losses in a huge sector for (mostly low-wage) employment. pic.twitter.com/XQJNCwBrKE | |
| Seth Harris, who was deputy US labor secretary under president Obama, is concerned by the rise in under-employment (the U-6 rate). | |
| He tweets: | |
| #Jobs report toplines: 1. Fewer jobs in Dec. means little. 2. 2d month U-6 increased; growth in involuntary part-time concerning 3. #Wages=disappointing 2.5% nominal increase/year, meager 0.3% real increase 4. Middle-wage industries growing (mfring, constr'n); retail shrinking. | |
| Yikes! America’s retail sector cut around 20,000 jobs last month, according to today’s non-farm payroll. | |
| That could be proof that the rise of internet shopping is forcing Main Street stores to cut back. | |
| The Amazon effect? Retail jobs down 20K in December and 67K for the full year. | |
| The retail apocalypse carries on. It dropped 20k jobs in December, adding up to 67,000 total jobs lost in 2017. It added 203k jobs in 2016. | |
| The NFP report also shows a 55,000 increase in goods-producing jobs, a 30,000 increase in construction, and a 91,000 increase in service-sector roles. | |
| Worryingly, the US under-employment rate rose to 8.1% in December, from 8.0% in October. | Worryingly, the US under-employment rate rose to 8.1% in December, from 8.0% in October. |
| That means more Americans wanted to work more hours than they were able. | That means more Americans wanted to work more hours than they were able. |
| In better news, November’s non-farm payroll has been revised up to show 252,000 new jobs were created (up from 228,000). | In better news, November’s non-farm payroll has been revised up to show 252,000 new jobs were created (up from 228,000). |
| But what the revisions give with one hand, they take with the other. October’s NFP has been revised down to 211,000, from 244,000. | But what the revisions give with one hand, they take with the other. October’s NFP has been revised down to 211,000, from 244,000. |
| Instant reaction - this isn’t a great jobs report. It’s not a disaster either. | Instant reaction - this isn’t a great jobs report. It’s not a disaster either. |
| Mediocre numbers.Jobs comes in at just 148K.Wages come in in line, but last month revised a tick lower.Unemployment steady but underemployment ticks higher. https://t.co/lr58ZiB7v6 | Mediocre numbers.Jobs comes in at just 148K.Wages come in in line, but last month revised a tick lower.Unemployment steady but underemployment ticks higher. https://t.co/lr58ZiB7v6 |
| Ouch | Ouch |
| On wages..... earnings rose by 2.5% per year in December, as expected. | On wages..... earnings rose by 2.5% per year in December, as expected. |
| But November’s wage data has been revised down, to 2.4% (from 2.5%). | But November’s wage data has been revised down, to 2.4% (from 2.5%). |
| Breaking! The US economy created 148,000 new jobs in December. | Breaking! The US economy created 148,000 new jobs in December. |
| That’s rather less than the 190,000 which economists had predicted. | That’s rather less than the 190,000 which economists had predicted. |
| The unemployment rate has come in at 4.1% - unchanged on last month. | The unemployment rate has come in at 4.1% - unchanged on last month. |
| More to follow..... | More to follow..... |
| No argument.... | No argument.... |
| This is definitely going to be the most exciting 2017 NFP report of 2018. | This is definitely going to be the most exciting 2017 NFP report of 2018. |
| Just five minutes to go, and the excitement is building.... | Just five minutes to go, and the excitement is building.... |
| #EYETWITCHES | #EYETWITCHES |
| The US jobs report is notoriously hard to predict, and invariably revised sometime in the future. | The US jobs report is notoriously hard to predict, and invariably revised sometime in the future. |
| But the Non-Farm Payroll is still one of the most eagerly awaited pieces of economic data in the calendar, as it gives an insight into how the world’s largest labo(u)r market is performing. | But the Non-Farm Payroll is still one of the most eagerly awaited pieces of economic data in the calendar, as it gives an insight into how the world’s largest labo(u)r market is performing. |
| As Naeem Aslam of Think Markets puts it: | As Naeem Aslam of Think Markets puts it: |
| Today is the day- the most important economic data, the US Non-Farm Payroll number, on the face of the earth will reveal its colour. | Today is the day- the most important economic data, the US Non-Farm Payroll number, on the face of the earth will reveal its colour. |
| This number sets the trading tone and the trend for the rest of the month for traders. Today’s number would provide us significant clues if the moderate growth in the US economy has left any impact on the jobs market, most importantly on the wage growth. Since the financial recession, the jobs market has been strengthening and this momentum was set by former President Barak Obama and Mr Trump is reaping the rewards. | This number sets the trading tone and the trend for the rest of the month for traders. Today’s number would provide us significant clues if the moderate growth in the US economy has left any impact on the jobs market, most importantly on the wage growth. Since the financial recession, the jobs market has been strengthening and this momentum was set by former President Barak Obama and Mr Trump is reaping the rewards. |
| World stock markets are at record levels today, partly thanks to Britain’s FTSE 100 hitting new heights this morning. | World stock markets are at record levels today, partly thanks to Britain’s FTSE 100 hitting new heights this morning. |
| And Wall Street is likely to push the bull market even higher when trading begins -- unless the US jobs report is a shock. | And Wall Street is likely to push the bull market even higher when trading begins -- unless the US jobs report is a shock. |
| Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM says: | Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM says: |
| Another day, another record high for world stocks, as a growing sense of optimism over the global economy boosts risk sentiment. | Another day, another record high for world stocks, as a growing sense of optimism over the global economy boosts risk sentiment. |
| Asian shares ventured higher during early trading on Friday, while European markets opened on a positive note amid the risk-on environment. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 25,000 for the first time ever on Thursday, U.S equity bulls are clearly back in town and as such, we could see further gains on Wall Street this afternoon. | Asian shares ventured higher during early trading on Friday, while European markets opened on a positive note amid the risk-on environment. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 25,000 for the first time ever on Thursday, U.S equity bulls are clearly back in town and as such, we could see further gains on Wall Street this afternoon. |
| Investors on both side of the Atlantic are bracing for the latest US jobs report to hit the wires, in 35 minutes time. | Investors on both side of the Atlantic are bracing for the latest US jobs report to hit the wires, in 35 minutes time. |
| December’s Non-Farm Payroll is expected to show that America’s economy created around 190,000 new jobs last month, leaving the unemployment rate at just 4.1%. | December’s Non-Farm Payroll is expected to show that America’s economy created around 190,000 new jobs last month, leaving the unemployment rate at just 4.1%. |
| However, there is talk that the NFP could be better, after another survey yesterday suggested that US firms hired 250,000 people in December. | However, there is talk that the NFP could be better, after another survey yesterday suggested that US firms hired 250,000 people in December. |
| Here’s a round-up of the latest Wall Street forecasts: | Here’s a round-up of the latest Wall Street forecasts: |
| US NFP (Dec) 1330GMTUBS 205kCredit Suisse 200kRBC 200kScotia 200k SocGen 200kHSBC 195kExp. 190kCommerzbank 190kLloyds 190kMS 190k Nomura 190kBofA 185kDB 185kCiti 180kWell Fargo 180kBNP 175k GS 175kJPM 175kING 170k | US NFP (Dec) 1330GMTUBS 205kCredit Suisse 200kRBC 200kScotia 200k SocGen 200kHSBC 195kExp. 190kCommerzbank 190kLloyds 190kMS 190k Nomura 190kBofA 185kDB 185kCiti 180kWell Fargo 180kBNP 175k GS 175kJPM 175kING 170k |
| Economists will also be looking closely at the wage growth figures, for signs that the US economic recovery is reaching workers’ pockets. | Economists will also be looking closely at the wage growth figures, for signs that the US economic recovery is reaching workers’ pockets. |
| Average earnings are expected to have risen by 2.5% per year, the same as a month ago, and by 0.3% in December alone. | Average earnings are expected to have risen by 2.5% per year, the same as a month ago, and by 0.3% in December alone. |
| Craig Erlam of City firm Oanda says: | Craig Erlam of City firm Oanda says: |
| We’ve been promised higher inflation and wage growth for some time and investors are increasingly not buying it. | We’ve been promised higher inflation and wage growth for some time and investors are increasingly not buying it. |
| Even some policy makers are starting to question why nothing has not materialised and should that continue, rate hike forecasts will start to slip, especially with interest rates now already elevated. Today’s jobs report should offer some insight on this, with average earnings having arguably become the most important component of it. Still earnings are only expected to have risen by 2.5% compared to a year ago, below last year’s peak and well below where they need to be for inflation to sustainably return to target. | Even some policy makers are starting to question why nothing has not materialised and should that continue, rate hike forecasts will start to slip, especially with interest rates now already elevated. Today’s jobs report should offer some insight on this, with average earnings having arguably become the most important component of it. Still earnings are only expected to have risen by 2.5% compared to a year ago, below last year’s peak and well below where they need to be for inflation to sustainably return to target. |
| Whatever happens, we’ll probably hear Donald Trump’s views through the usual channel.... | Whatever happens, we’ll probably hear Donald Trump’s views through the usual channel.... |
| #NFPGuesses Beats consensus, Dow pops, Trump tweets | #NFPGuesses Beats consensus, Dow pops, Trump tweets |
| The Labour Party is also voicing concerns about the drop in UK car sales last year. | The Labour Party is also voicing concerns about the drop in UK car sales last year. |
| Rebecca Long-Bailey MP, Labour’s Shadow Business Secretary, says: | Rebecca Long-Bailey MP, Labour’s Shadow Business Secretary, says: |
| “The Government’s mismanagement of the economy and mishandling of the Brexit negotiations has shaken consumer and business confidence and it’s concerning that the sales of new cars are falling. | “The Government’s mismanagement of the economy and mishandling of the Brexit negotiations has shaken consumer and business confidence and it’s concerning that the sales of new cars are falling. |
| “The industry has been warning the Government time and time again and, as has become typical with the Tories, they have failed to listen or take action. | “The industry has been warning the Government time and time again and, as has become typical with the Tories, they have failed to listen or take action. |
| “The British car industry is a vital part of our economy, directly employing up to 170,000 people. Labour’s Industrial Strategy will set out a radical programme of investment and genuine partnership between industry and government, to protect vital jobs and build an economy that works for the many, not the few.” | “The British car industry is a vital part of our economy, directly employing up to 170,000 people. Labour’s Industrial Strategy will set out a radical programme of investment and genuine partnership between industry and government, to protect vital jobs and build an economy that works for the many, not the few.” |
| Here’s our financial editor, Nils Pratley, on the idea that markets are in a melt-up phase: | Here’s our financial editor, Nils Pratley, on the idea that markets are in a melt-up phase: |