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US economy created just 148,000 jobs last month, leaving unemployment rate at 4.1% - business live | |
(35 minutes later) | |
Worryingly, the US under-employment rate rose to 8.1% in December, from 8.0% in October. | |
That means more Americans wanted to work more hours than they were able. | |
In better news, November’s non-farm payroll has been revised up to show 252,000 new jobs were created (up from 228,000). | |
But what the revisions give with one hand, they take with the other. October’s NFP has been revised down to 211,000, from 244,000. | |
Instant reaction - this isn’t a great jobs report. It’s not a disaster either. | |
Mediocre numbers.Jobs comes in at just 148K.Wages come in in line, but last month revised a tick lower.Unemployment steady but underemployment ticks higher. https://t.co/lr58ZiB7v6 | |
Ouch | |
On wages..... earnings rose by 2.5% per year in December, as expected. | |
But November’s wage data has been revised down, to 2.4% (from 2.5%). | |
Breaking! The US economy created 148,000 new jobs in December. | |
That’s rather less than the 190,000 which economists had predicted. | |
The unemployment rate has come in at 4.1% - unchanged on last month. | |
More to follow..... | |
No argument.... | |
This is definitely going to be the most exciting 2017 NFP report of 2018. | |
Just five minutes to go, and the excitement is building.... | |
#EYETWITCHES | |
The US jobs report is notoriously hard to predict, and invariably revised sometime in the future. | |
But the Non-Farm Payroll is still one of the most eagerly awaited pieces of economic data in the calendar, as it gives an insight into how the world’s largest labo(u)r market is performing. | |
As Naeem Aslam of Think Markets puts it: | |
Today is the day- the most important economic data, the US Non-Farm Payroll number, on the face of the earth will reveal its colour. | |
This number sets the trading tone and the trend for the rest of the month for traders. Today’s number would provide us significant clues if the moderate growth in the US economy has left any impact on the jobs market, most importantly on the wage growth. Since the financial recession, the jobs market has been strengthening and this momentum was set by former President Barak Obama and Mr Trump is reaping the rewards. | |
World stock markets are at record levels today, partly thanks to Britain’s FTSE 100 hitting new heights this morning. | World stock markets are at record levels today, partly thanks to Britain’s FTSE 100 hitting new heights this morning. |
And Wall Street is likely to push the bull market even higher when trading begins -- unless the US jobs report is a shock. | And Wall Street is likely to push the bull market even higher when trading begins -- unless the US jobs report is a shock. |
Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM says: | Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM says: |
Another day, another record high for world stocks, as a growing sense of optimism over the global economy boosts risk sentiment. | Another day, another record high for world stocks, as a growing sense of optimism over the global economy boosts risk sentiment. |
Asian shares ventured higher during early trading on Friday, while European markets opened on a positive note amid the risk-on environment. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 25,000 for the first time ever on Thursday, U.S equity bulls are clearly back in town and as such, we could see further gains on Wall Street this afternoon. | Asian shares ventured higher during early trading on Friday, while European markets opened on a positive note amid the risk-on environment. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 25,000 for the first time ever on Thursday, U.S equity bulls are clearly back in town and as such, we could see further gains on Wall Street this afternoon. |
Investors on both side of the Atlantic are bracing for the latest US jobs report to hit the wires, in 35 minutes time. | Investors on both side of the Atlantic are bracing for the latest US jobs report to hit the wires, in 35 minutes time. |
December’s Non-Farm Payroll is expected to show that America’s economy created around 190,000 new jobs last month, leaving the unemployment rate at just 4.1%. | December’s Non-Farm Payroll is expected to show that America’s economy created around 190,000 new jobs last month, leaving the unemployment rate at just 4.1%. |
However, there is talk that the NFP could be better, after another survey yesterday suggested that US firms hired 250,000 people in December. | However, there is talk that the NFP could be better, after another survey yesterday suggested that US firms hired 250,000 people in December. |
Here’s a round-up of the latest Wall Street forecasts: | Here’s a round-up of the latest Wall Street forecasts: |
US NFP (Dec) 1330GMTUBS 205kCredit Suisse 200kRBC 200kScotia 200k SocGen 200kHSBC 195kExp. 190kCommerzbank 190kLloyds 190kMS 190k Nomura 190kBofA 185kDB 185kCiti 180kWell Fargo 180kBNP 175k GS 175kJPM 175kING 170k | US NFP (Dec) 1330GMTUBS 205kCredit Suisse 200kRBC 200kScotia 200k SocGen 200kHSBC 195kExp. 190kCommerzbank 190kLloyds 190kMS 190k Nomura 190kBofA 185kDB 185kCiti 180kWell Fargo 180kBNP 175k GS 175kJPM 175kING 170k |
Economists will also be looking closely at the wage growth figures, for signs that the US economic recovery is reaching workers’ pockets. | Economists will also be looking closely at the wage growth figures, for signs that the US economic recovery is reaching workers’ pockets. |
Average earnings are expected to have risen by 2.5% per year, the same as a month ago, and by 0.3% in December alone. | Average earnings are expected to have risen by 2.5% per year, the same as a month ago, and by 0.3% in December alone. |
Craig Erlam of City firm Oanda says: | Craig Erlam of City firm Oanda says: |
We’ve been promised higher inflation and wage growth for some time and investors are increasingly not buying it. | We’ve been promised higher inflation and wage growth for some time and investors are increasingly not buying it. |
Even some policy makers are starting to question why nothing has not materialised and should that continue, rate hike forecasts will start to slip, especially with interest rates now already elevated. Today’s jobs report should offer some insight on this, with average earnings having arguably become the most important component of it. Still earnings are only expected to have risen by 2.5% compared to a year ago, below last year’s peak and well below where they need to be for inflation to sustainably return to target. | Even some policy makers are starting to question why nothing has not materialised and should that continue, rate hike forecasts will start to slip, especially with interest rates now already elevated. Today’s jobs report should offer some insight on this, with average earnings having arguably become the most important component of it. Still earnings are only expected to have risen by 2.5% compared to a year ago, below last year’s peak and well below where they need to be for inflation to sustainably return to target. |
Whatever happens, we’ll probably hear Donald Trump’s views through the usual channel.... | Whatever happens, we’ll probably hear Donald Trump’s views through the usual channel.... |
#NFPGuesses Beats consensus, Dow pops, Trump tweets | #NFPGuesses Beats consensus, Dow pops, Trump tweets |
The Labour Party is also voicing concerns about the drop in UK car sales last year. | The Labour Party is also voicing concerns about the drop in UK car sales last year. |
Rebecca Long-Bailey MP, Labour’s Shadow Business Secretary, says: | Rebecca Long-Bailey MP, Labour’s Shadow Business Secretary, says: |
“The Government’s mismanagement of the economy and mishandling of the Brexit negotiations has shaken consumer and business confidence and it’s concerning that the sales of new cars are falling. | “The Government’s mismanagement of the economy and mishandling of the Brexit negotiations has shaken consumer and business confidence and it’s concerning that the sales of new cars are falling. |
“The industry has been warning the Government time and time again and, as has become typical with the Tories, they have failed to listen or take action. | “The industry has been warning the Government time and time again and, as has become typical with the Tories, they have failed to listen or take action. |
“The British car industry is a vital part of our economy, directly employing up to 170,000 people. Labour’s Industrial Strategy will set out a radical programme of investment and genuine partnership between industry and government, to protect vital jobs and build an economy that works for the many, not the few.” | “The British car industry is a vital part of our economy, directly employing up to 170,000 people. Labour’s Industrial Strategy will set out a radical programme of investment and genuine partnership between industry and government, to protect vital jobs and build an economy that works for the many, not the few.” |
Here’s our financial editor, Nils Pratley, on the idea that markets are in a melt-up phase: | Here’s our financial editor, Nils Pratley, on the idea that markets are in a melt-up phase: |