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French election: How dominant will Macron party be? French election: Macron team complete rout with Assembly win
(7 days later)
First he swept aside all his political rivals to claim the presidency, now President Emmanuel Macron's team of largely unknown candidates is poised to form a sweeping majority in parliament. French President Emmanuel Macron is celebrating a convincing victory in National Assembly elections that gives him the mandate to push through wide-ranging social and economic reforms.
Never elected before, he leads a brand new political party. Three-quarters of the assembly are new members and a record 223 of the 577 MPs are women.
La République en Marche (LREM) party won almost a third of votes in the first round of parliamentary elections and seeks a mandate to push through the sweeping changes he promises. Mr Macron's fledgling La République en Marche (LREM) won 308 seats with 43% of the vote.
How big will his majority be? But the 42.64% turnout is a record low for modern-day France.
With 32.32% of the vote, even if it was on a low turnout, LREM crushed its rivals on both the right and left. Together with its centrist MoDem allies, LREM now forms a bloc of 350 seats, well over the 289 seats needed to control parliament.
Ahead in 400 constituencies out of the 577 that make up France's National Assembly, the party is heading for a convincing majority far higher than the 289 seats needed to control parliament. That does not even take into account the 100-odd seats where Mr Macron's centrist MoDem allies are in the lead. Just how staggering is this result?
His centrist alliance could control 415 to 455 seats after the second round on 18 June, experts predict. His first-round success is even more impressive than the first round of the presidential election, which he won with 24.1% of the vote. The election result means that a party that only began life in April 2016 now has complete control of France's lower house of parliament and that means the president can press on with steering through his broad programme of reform.
In other words, a party that only began life in April 2016 will now have complete control of France's lower house of parliament with its mix of largely unknown figures, most of whom are completely new to politics. And that means the president should have little difficulty in steering through his broad programme of reform. "He now has his majority, beyond all his hopes," warned commentator Etienne Lefebvre. "Undoubtedly that will make his task easier but it'll also increase expectation."
The centre-right Republican vote held up, with 21.56% of the vote, and they are now projected to win a maximum of 110 seats in the new assembly. In line with tradition, the government which was only formed last month under Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, will resign on Monday and be replaced by a new team.
The Socialists, who ran the last government, failed to reach 10% and will struggle to form an alliance of more than 40 seats. They were outvoted by the far-left La France Insoumise (France unbowed), which attracted 11% of the electorate. The old political guard in the assembly is a shadow of its former self. The centre-right Republican-led grouping has 137 seats, and the outgoing Socialists 44.
The far-right National Front, with 13.2%, will win only a handful of seats. Leader Marine Le Pen is expected to enter parliament for the first time, but with her authority weakened by a poor electoral performance. For the first time, the far-left La France Insoumise (France unbowed) enters parliament with 27 seats while the far-right National Front (FN) has increased its number to eight, including leader Marine Le Pen.
How does the election work? So who are the ones to watch?
Just like the presidential poll, the National Assembly vote is held over two rounds. Never has the French parliament had so many women MPs - 38.65% of the total - and that is largely down to President Macron's policy of equal gender selection.
Anyone who wins 50% of the constituency vote in the first round is elected automatically on a minimum turnout of 25%. For most seats, there is a second round run-off involving any candidate with at least 12.5% of the vote. That differs from the presidential vote, where only the top two candidates go through. Many of LREM's MPs have come from across civil society:
While the system gives France's 47 million voters the chance to vote for their favourite without tactical considerations in the first round, ultimately it favours the big parties, says Philippe Marlière, professor of French politics at University College London. Other LREM deputies include éclair entrepreneur Brigitte Liso, organic farmer Sandrine Le Feur, head teacher Mireille Robert and entrepreneur Patrice Perrot.
That is why the National Front will fare worse than the Socialists, despite polling far better in the first round on 11 June. As in the UK, the winner in each constituency vote takes all. Who will fight Macron all the way?
Who are the ones to watch? FN leader Marine Le Pen was Mr Macron's main challenger for the presidency and before now has never held a parliamentary seat. While her close adviser Florian Philippot failed to get elected, she is joined by her partner, Louis Alliot, and another senior FN figure, Gilbert Collard.
President Macron's team of candidates was scrambled together in days, and includes 266 women and 219 from civil society. Many of the loudest voices from the left have gone but Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise has vowed to challenge Mr Macron's plans to reform labour laws, arguing the president does not have the "legitimacy to enforce the social coup d'état he had planned".
Most are still challenging for a seat in the National Assembly. The most powerful opposition will come from the Republicans although the rise of LREM has left their party divided. Gone are big-name leaders like Nicolas Sarkozy, François Fillon and Alain Juppé. Some in the party have offered to work with the new government but others, like Eric Ciotti, see them as traitors.
There are plenty of colourful characters in the Macron camp, ranging from a retired bullfighter in Arles, Marie Sara, to Rwandan refugee Hervé Berville, éclair entrepreneur Brigitte Liso and horror film producer Laurent Zameczkowski.
One of the better known figures is mathematician Cédric Villani, known for his unique dress sense including large spider brooches. Having won over 47% of the vote in the first round, he looks unbeatable.
"They tend to be very middle-class, very white on the whole, and half are absolute newcomers to politics," says Prof Marlière.
Many well known figures have already been knocked out in the first round as French voters look to a new era in politics. Here are some of the key battles to look out for.
What does Macron want to do?What does Macron want to do?
He has a sweeping list of reforms planned to revive France's economy, from simplifying labour laws to lower unemployment and cutting corporation tax from 33% to 25%. He has a sweeping list of reforms planned to revive France's economy, from simplifying labour laws to lowering unemployment and cutting corporation tax from 33% to 25%.
A large mandate will give him the confidence to take on France's powerful unions, but a powerful challenge is likely. A large mandate will give him the confidence to take on France's powerful unions but a powerful challenge is likely.
The Macron government wants to make budget savings of €60bn (£51bn; $65bn), so that France sticks to the EU's government deficit limit of 3% of GDP (total output). Public servants would be cut in number by 120,000 - through natural wastage, possibly to soften opposition from France's powerful unions.The Macron government wants to make budget savings of €60bn (£51bn; $65bn), so that France sticks to the EU's government deficit limit of 3% of GDP (total output). Public servants would be cut in number by 120,000 - through natural wastage, possibly to soften opposition from France's powerful unions.
The new president would simultaneously reinvest €50bn and create a separate €10bn fund for renewing industry.
What are French President Macron's policies?What are French President Macron's policies?
He would simultaneously reinvest €50bn and create a separate €10bn fund for renewing industry.
Can Macron's party keep its promises?Can Macron's party keep its promises?
No-one yet knows, says Prof Marlière, who sees the role of French president, according to the constitution, as the most powerful political position in Europe.No-one yet knows, says Prof Marlière, who sees the role of French president, according to the constitution, as the most powerful political position in Europe.
"What Macron is doing," he says, "is appealing to the right wing of the Socialists and also to the centre right: that's really about creating something new. Normally you don't put together these two sides.""What Macron is doing," he says, "is appealing to the right wing of the Socialists and also to the centre right: that's really about creating something new. Normally you don't put together these two sides."
New parties have made a bid for power in Europe before, in Spain and in Italy. But few have gone into government, other than the left-wing Syriza party in Greece, which has struggled to live up to its campaign promises. New parties have made a bid for power in Europe before, in Spain and in Italy, but few have gone into government, other than the left-wing Syriza party in Greece, which has struggled to live up to its campaign promises.
The task for President Macron will be to hold together the left and right elements of his party, while still purporting to hold the centre ground. His first big test will be his planned labour reforms, leaked drafts of which have already angered France's powerful trade unions. The task for President Macron will be to hold together the left and right elements of his party, while still purporting to hold the centre ground. His first big test will be his planned labour reforms, leaked drafts of which have already angered trade unions.