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French election: Can Macron's new party win majority he needs? French election: How dominant will Macron party be?
(3 days later)
He swept aside all his political rivals to claim the presidency in May, but President Emmanuel Macron has done only half the job. First he swept aside all his political rivals to claim the presidency, now President Emmanuel Macron's team of largely unknown candidates is poised to form a sweeping majority in parliament.
Never elected before, he leads a party with no MPs and seeks a similar upheaval in France's National Assembly to push through the changes he promises. Never elected before, he leads a brand new political party.
French voters return to the polls in a two-stage parliamentary election on 11 and 18 June. La République en Marche (LREM) party won almost a third of votes in the first round of parliamentary elections and seeks a mandate to push through the sweeping changes he promises.
So can he do it? How big will his majority be?
The polls say he can. They consistently give Mr Macron's La République en Marche (LREM) a clear lead over his rivals. With 32.32% of the vote, even if it was on a low turnout, LREM crushed its rivals on both the right and left.
Recent polls suggest LREM may attract 30% of the vote, well ahead of the centre-right Republicans and far-right National Front (FN). Significantly, that would give him at least 330 of the National Assembly's 577 and possibly far more. Ahead in 400 constituencies out of the 577 that make up France's National Assembly, the party is heading for a convincing majority far higher than the 289 seats needed to control parliament. That does not even take into account the 100-odd seats where Mr Macron's centrist MoDem allies are in the lead.
Voters across the country want to give Mr Macron the leeway to implement his agenda, Philippe Marlière, professor of French politics at University College London, told the BBC. His centrist alliance could control 415 to 455 seats after the second round on 18 June, experts predict. His first-round success is even more impressive than the first round of the presidential election, which he won with 24.1% of the vote.
His party already has a boost from early first-round results abroad, where LREM candidates came first in 10 of the 11 overseas constituencies. The yellow-shaded areas of the map below show the areas where he beat his political rivals in the first round of the presidential election. In other words, a party that only began life in April 2016 will now have complete control of France's lower house of parliament with its mix of largely unknown figures, most of whom are completely new to politics. And that means the president should have little difficulty in steering through his broad programme of reform.
The centre-right Republican vote held up, with 21.56% of the vote, and they are now projected to win a maximum of 110 seats in the new assembly.
The Socialists, who ran the last government, failed to reach 10% and will struggle to form an alliance of more than 40 seats. They were outvoted by the far-left La France Insoumise (France unbowed), which attracted 11% of the electorate.
The far-right National Front, with 13.2%, will win only a handful of seats. Leader Marine Le Pen is expected to enter parliament for the first time, but with her authority weakened by a poor electoral performance.
How does the election work?How does the election work?
The poll to select 577 deputies in the lower house of parliament is held over two rounds, the same as the presidential election. Just like the presidential poll, the National Assembly vote is held over two rounds.
Thousands of candidates take part in the first round, and anyone who secures 50% of the constituency vote on a minimum turnout of 25% will win in the first round. Anyone who wins 50% of the constituency vote in the first round is elected automatically on a minimum turnout of 25%. For most seats, there is a second round run-off involving any candidate with at least 12.5% of the vote. That differs from the presidential vote, where only the top two candidates go through.
Otherwise, the vote goes to a run-off in which any candidate with at least 12.5% of the vote can stand. That differs from the presidential vote, where only the top two candidates go through. While the system gives France's 47 million voters the chance to vote for their favourite without tactical considerations in the first round, ultimately it favours the big parties, says Philippe Marlière, professor of French politics at University College London.
While the system gives France's 47 million voters the chance to vote for their favourite without tactical considerations in the first round, ultimately it favours big parties, says Prof Marlière. That is why the National Front will fare worse than the Socialists, despite polling far better in the first round on 11 June. As in the UK, the winner in each constituency vote takes all.
LREM needs 289 seats for a minimum absolute majority.
If, as the polls suggest, the National Front attracts around 18% of the vote, it will do well to win 15 seats in the Assembly. And this is a party that came second in the presidential election with 10.6 million votes.
That is because, as in the UK, the winner in each constituency vote takes all. In the last vote in 2012 it won just two seats.
How has Macron's party mobilised this quickly?
It is quite an achievement. His movement was created only in April 2016 and had only a handful of candidates before he won the presidency on 7 May.
Within days, a buoyant LREM had managed to recruit candidates to fight 526 constituencies out of a possible 577. Of these, 266 are women and 219 come from civil society.
The party already had activist structures in place. A grassroots network of campaigners knocked on some 300,000 doors to take the voter temperature and sculpt policy proposals ahead of Mr Macron's election bid - an initiative known as the Grande Marche (Big March).
But this operation for the legislative elections, says Prof Marlière, was a highly centralised business, almost military in character.
"It had to be - if you're starting from scratch, democracy knows its limits."
The thousands who declared an interest were efficiently whittled down to the final list.
"They tend to be very middle-class, very white on the whole, and half are absolute newcomers to politics. It's the unknown - nonetheless most of them look set to be elected," says Prof Marlière.
Who are the ones to watch?Who are the ones to watch?
There are a number of colourful characters in the Macron camp - a retired bullfighter in Arles, Marie Sara; an eclair entrepreneur in Lille, Brigitte Liso; a Rwandan refugee in Brittany, Hervé Berville; and Cédric Villani, a "mathematics evangelist" known for his unique dress sense including large spider brooches. President Macron's team of candidates was scrambled together in days, and includes 266 women and 219 from civil society.
A number of the constituency races will be worth watching, including: Most are still challenging for a seat in the National Assembly.
If it wins, can La République en Marche keep its promises? There are plenty of colourful characters in the Macron camp, ranging from a retired bullfighter in Arles, Marie Sara, to Rwandan refugee Hervé Berville, éclair entrepreneur Brigitte Liso and horror film producer Laurent Zameczkowski.
One of the better known figures is mathematician Cédric Villani, known for his unique dress sense including large spider brooches. Having won over 47% of the vote in the first round, he looks unbeatable.
"They tend to be very middle-class, very white on the whole, and half are absolute newcomers to politics," says Prof Marlière.
Many well known figures have already been knocked out in the first round as French voters look to a new era in politics. Here are some of the key battles to look out for.
What does Macron want to do?
He has a sweeping list of reforms planned to revive France's economy, from simplifying labour laws to lower unemployment and cutting corporation tax from 33% to 25%.
A large mandate will give him the confidence to take on France's powerful unions, but a powerful challenge is likely.
The Macron government wants to make budget savings of €60bn (£51bn; $65bn), so that France sticks to the EU's government deficit limit of 3% of GDP (total output). Public servants would be cut in number by 120,000 - through natural wastage, possibly to soften opposition from France's powerful unions.
What are French President Macron's policies?
He would simultaneously reinvest €50bn and create a separate €10bn fund for renewing industry.
Can Macron's party keep its promises?
No-one yet knows, says Prof Marlière, who sees the role of French president, according to the constitution, as the most powerful political position in Europe.No-one yet knows, says Prof Marlière, who sees the role of French president, according to the constitution, as the most powerful political position in Europe.
"What Macron is doing," he says, "is appealing to the right wing of the Socialists and also to the centre right: that's really about creating something new. Normally you don't put together these two sides.""What Macron is doing," he says, "is appealing to the right wing of the Socialists and also to the centre right: that's really about creating something new. Normally you don't put together these two sides."
New parties have challenged for power in Europe before, in Spain and in Italy. But few have gone into government, such as the left-wing Syriza party in Greece, and it has struggled to live up to its campaign promises. New parties have made a bid for power in Europe before, in Spain and in Italy. But few have gone into government, other than the left-wing Syriza party in Greece, which has struggled to live up to its campaign promises.
The task for President Macron will be to hold together the left and right elements of his party, while still purporting to hold the centre ground. His first big test will be his planned labour reforms, leaked drafts of which have already angered France's powerful trade unions.The task for President Macron will be to hold together the left and right elements of his party, while still purporting to hold the centre ground. His first big test will be his planned labour reforms, leaked drafts of which have already angered France's powerful trade unions.