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Indyref2: Your questions answered What happens now MSPs have backed calls for a second referendum?
(14 days later)
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced plans to seek a second Scottish independence referendum in 2018 or 2019 - but Theresa May has said "now is not the time". What do we know so far? First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced plans to seek a second Scottish independence referendum in 2018 or 2019, and those plans have now been backed by Holyrood - but Theresa May insisted "now is not the time". So what happens next?
What has happened? What has happened so far?
On Monday, 13 March, Nicola Sturgeon announced her intention to hold a second Scottish independence referendum.On Monday, 13 March, Nicola Sturgeon announced her intention to hold a second Scottish independence referendum.
She used a press conference at her Bute House residence in Edinburgh to announce plans to seek a Section 30 order for a new vote on the issue, having repeatedly said a referendum was "highly likely" since the Brexit vote in 2016. The first minister said it was needed to protect Scottish interests in light of Brexit - she said Scottish voters must be offered an "informed choice" between the path the UK government was taking, and independence.
The first minister said a referendum is needed to protect Scottish interests in light of Brexit - she said Scottish voters must be offered an "informed choice" between the path the UK government is taking, and independence. But by Thursday, 16 March, Prime Minister Theresa May said "now is not the time" for a referendum, saying all attention should be on the Brexit negotiations in the coming years.
But by Thursday, 16 March, Prime Minister Theresa May has said "now is not the time" for a referendum, saying all attention should be on the Brexit negotiations in the coming years. The two have since met for talks in Glasgow, without any significant progress being made.
What brought this on? MSPs have now passed a motion calling for Westminster to grant a "Section 30 order" giving permission for a new vote.
Scotland voted against independence by 55% to 45% in 2014.
But then Scottish voters backed Remain in the EU referendum by 62% to 38% - while the rest of the UK voted to leave. Ms Sturgeon sees this as creating a "democratic deficit" which must be settled.
The SNP campaigned in the 2016 Holyrood elections saying that a "material change" in Scotland's circumstances - highlighting specifically the idea of being taken out of the EU - would be a sound reason for a second referendum. While they did not secure a majority, that manifesto won the SNP by far the largest number of votes.
With Article 50, the formal start of the Brexit process, set to be triggered shortly, Ms Sturgeon said the time is now right to set out a choice to Scotland's voters.
However, the UK government disagrees.
What is a Section 30 order?What is a Section 30 order?
The power to call a referendum is reserved to Westminster. Section 30 of the 1998 Scotland Act is the mechanism by which Holyrood can legislate on reserved areas.The power to call a referendum is reserved to Westminster. Section 30 of the 1998 Scotland Act is the mechanism by which Holyrood can legislate on reserved areas.
For the 2014 vote, David Cameron and Alex Salmond, the then-leaders of the UK and Scottish governments, signed the Edinburgh Agreement to give Holyrood the power to call the referendum.For the 2014 vote, David Cameron and Alex Salmond, the then-leaders of the UK and Scottish governments, signed the Edinburgh Agreement to give Holyrood the power to call the referendum.
Nicola Sturgeon - also a signatory of the Edinburgh Agreement, as deputy first minister - wants to get a similar deal from the current PM, Mrs May.Nicola Sturgeon - also a signatory of the Edinburgh Agreement, as deputy first minister - wants to get a similar deal from the current PM, Mrs May.
Her first step will be to ask MSPs for their backing over this. The Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems have all indicated they will vote against Ms Sturgeon's proposals, but crucially the Greens will back her. If all voting MSPs turn up, that will give the first minister a majority of 69 to 59. After a debate delayed by the terror attack at Westminster, she has got backing for this from MSPs - although they were split along party lines in the final vote, unlike the unanimous backing for the Edinburgh Agreement.
Will the UK government grant a Section 30 order? What happens next?
In the short term, the answer is no. The Scottish government will send a letter to Theresa May underlining "the will of parliament" and asking for permission to hold a referendum. Brexit minister Mike Russell told the BBC that this letter would "lay out how we intend to fulfil the mandate of the Scottish Parliament".
The UK government has said a referendum would be "divisive" and would "cause huge economic uncertainty at the worst possible time", but has stopped short of saying it would refuse permission outright. However, Theresa May's "not at this time" response, which is now becoming a mantra, seems to have assumed the vote would go through. On Monday, she said: "My position isn't going to change: now is not the time to be talking about a second independence referendum."
Instead, Mrs May says "now is not the time". She wants to focus on the Brexit talks for the next few years, arguing that Scottish voters would not have enough information to make a "crucial decision" on the Union in the meantime. Scottish Secretary David Mundell has put it in even clearer terms: "We will not be entering into discussions or negotiations about a Section 30 agreement and any request at this time will be declined."
Her Scottish Secretary David Mundell emphasised this shortly afterwards, saying that it would not be "fair" to hold a vote until it is clear what the UK's relationship with the EU is like in the post-Brexit world. Note again the "at this time" caveat. So the UK government has not said "never" - but it has said "not yet".
So the UK government have not said "never" - but they have said "not yet".
So when might a referendum be held?So when might a referendum be held?
Ms Sturgeon outlined a window towards the end of the Brexit process in which she wants the vote to take place, between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019. Ms Sturgeon outlined a window towards the end of the Brexit process in which she wants the vote to take place, between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019 - a window now endorsed by Holyrood.
The first minister wants the picture of the final Brexit deal to become clear, so that she can offer Scottish voters an "informed choice" before the UK leaves the EU.The first minister wants the picture of the final Brexit deal to become clear, so that she can offer Scottish voters an "informed choice" before the UK leaves the EU.
But her timetable has now been rejected by the UK government, who don't believe the picture of Brexit will be clear until well after the UK is out of the EU - effectively, they say Brexit needs time to 'bed in'. But her timetable has been rejected by the UK government, which doesn't believe the picture of Brexit will be clear until well after the UK is out of the EU - effectively, they say Brexit needs time to "bed in".
Does this mean there could be a referendum later, in 2019 or 2020? Mr Mundell has refused to speculate about possible dates. Does this mean there could be a referendum later, in 2019 or 2020?
The two governments are at something of an impasse over this - but Ms Sturgeon wants to push ahead with the Holyrood side of the process in the meantime, arguing the Scottish Parliament should have the final say. Mr Mundell has refused to speculate about possible dates, but doesn't want there to be talks during the Brexit process. Ms Sturgeon meanwhile said her talks with Mrs May "underlined" her belief in her stated timetable.
What would the question be? The two governments are at something of an impasse over this - but Ms Sturgeon argues the Scottish Parliament should have the final say.
This would also be the subject of intense negotiation, should we get that far. The draft referendum bill put out for consultation in 2016 was based on a question matching that approved by the Electoral Commission in 2014: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" How could the impasse be broken?
The UK government might argue for a Remain/Leave style question, like that of the EU referendum. At this point, it is not entirely clear.
Again, Ms Sturgeon wants Holyrood to have the final say, but she acknowledges that the Electoral Commission could intervene. Ms Sturgeon says if the UK government refuse to talk, she will come back to Holyrood after the Easter recess to set out her proposals for what comes next. But what could they be?
What do the polls say? The Scottish government believe Mrs May's position is untenable, especially in the face of the Holyrood vote, and reckon she will have to back down sooner or later.
In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, there was a bounce in the polls in favour of Scottish independence. But this quickly fell away to leave levels of support roughly where they were at the last referendum. How could they force her hand? Options suggested and broadly discarded by the government include holding a new election on a specific platform of holding a referendum soon afterward, or holding an unauthorised "advisory" vote. Neither is particularly likely.
But more recently, an Ipsos Mori poll for STV found that respondents likely to vote were split 50-50. The next big date in the constitutional calendar - coming on Wednesday - is the triggering of Article 50, the formal process of leaving the EU.
And a BMG survey for the Herald on the eve of Ms Sturgeon's announcement suggested support for the Union is still narrowly ahead, at 52% to 48%. The Brexit process throws up various points at which Holyrood's consent will be needed for legislation, which could provide bargaining chips for the Scottish government - not least the Great Repeal Bill, which will be published on Thursday.
The Scottish Social Attitudes Survey found support for independence at an all-time high - but it also found the popularity of the EU had fallen, with Eurosceptism higher than ever. The Supreme Court has rejected the idea that Holyrood could halt the Brexit process outright, but it could give Mrs May a significant headache. Ms Sturgeon could offer to let the Brexit legislation pass unimpeded - in exchange for a referendum sometime in 2019.
Fancy a flutter? Here are the odds That is one potential bargaining position. But as things stand, there is no clear route out of the current standoff.
Most bookmakers responded to Ms Sturgeon's announcement by making an independence vote the odds-on favourite result of the next referendum.
Ladbrokes had Yes to independence at 8/11, with a No vote at 11/10, while William Hill also had No at 11/10 and Yes at 4/6 - with Coral offering the exact same odds.
Paddy Power had a pro-independence vote at 1/2, with odds of 6/4 on there being a vote in favour of remaining in the UK.
However, Paddy Power had 2020 or later as the clear favourite in terms of when the vote is held, with odds of 4/7, while the last three months of 2018 is at 7/1.
After Mrs May's announcement, Paddy Power cut odds of a referendum in 2020 or later to evens, while they put the odds of a pro-independence vote at 4/7.
Could Scotland remain in the EU if there was a Yes vote?
Ms Sturgeon was asked directly if she backed full EU membership for Scotland, and she cited it as being "SNP policy". There has been debate over this point due to a number of SNP members backing Brexit, leading some to speculate that the party might not commit to full membership.
In any case, there is a distinction to be drawn between Scotland staying in the EU as the rest of the UK leaves, and it rejoining at a later date as an independent country.
In 2012, the EU said Scotland would have to reapply for membership after leaving the UK, then a member state. Today, MEPs still say Scotland would have to re-enter, but some important groups, such as the Spanish, have said they would not seek to "veto" Scotland becoming a member state.
Given the unprecedented nature of Brexit, this is another point there will be negotiation - and no doubt a row - over.
It is thought the SNP would look to use membership of the European Economic Area as an initial "stepping stone" towards full EU membership.