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Indyref2: Your questions answered Indyref2: Your questions answered
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First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced plans to seek a second Scottish independence referendum in 2018 or 2019. What do we know so far? First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced plans to seek a second Scottish independence referendum in 2018 or 2019 - but Theresa May has said "now is not the time". What do we know so far?
What has happened?What has happened?
Nicola Sturgeon has announced her intention to hold a second Scottish independence referendum. On Monday, 13 March, Nicola Sturgeon announced her intention to hold a second Scottish independence referendum.
She used a press conference at her Bute House residence in Edinburgh to announce plans to seek a Section 30 order for a new vote on the issue, having repeatedly said a referendum was "highly likely" since the Brexit vote in 2016.She used a press conference at her Bute House residence in Edinburgh to announce plans to seek a Section 30 order for a new vote on the issue, having repeatedly said a referendum was "highly likely" since the Brexit vote in 2016.
The first minister says a referendum is needed to protect Scottish interests in light of Brexit - she said Scottish voters must be offered an "informed choice" between the path the UK government is taking, and independence. The first minister said a referendum is needed to protect Scottish interests in light of Brexit - she said Scottish voters must be offered an "informed choice" between the path the UK government is taking, and independence.
But by Thursday, 16 March, Prime Minister Theresa May has said "now is not the time" for a referendum, saying all attention should be on the Brexit negotiations in the coming years.
What brought this on?What brought this on?
Scotland voted against independence by 55% to 45% in 2014.Scotland voted against independence by 55% to 45% in 2014.
But then Scottish voters backed Remain in the EU referendum by 62% to 38% - while the rest of the UK voted to leave. Ms Sturgeon sees this as creating a "democratic deficit" which must be settled.But then Scottish voters backed Remain in the EU referendum by 62% to 38% - while the rest of the UK voted to leave. Ms Sturgeon sees this as creating a "democratic deficit" which must be settled.
The SNP campaigned in the 2016 Holyrood elections saying that a "material change" in Scotland's circumstances - highlighting specifically the idea of being taken out of the EU - would be a sound reason for a second referendum. While they did not secure a majority, that manifesto won the SNP by far the largest number of votes.The SNP campaigned in the 2016 Holyrood elections saying that a "material change" in Scotland's circumstances - highlighting specifically the idea of being taken out of the EU - would be a sound reason for a second referendum. While they did not secure a majority, that manifesto won the SNP by far the largest number of votes.
With Article 50, the formal start of the Brexit process, set to be triggered shortly, Ms Sturgeon said the time is now right to set out a choice to Scotland's voters.With Article 50, the formal start of the Brexit process, set to be triggered shortly, Ms Sturgeon said the time is now right to set out a choice to Scotland's voters.
However, the UK government disagrees.
What is a Section 30 order?What is a Section 30 order?
The power to call a referendum is reserved to Westminster. For the 2014 vote, David Cameron and Alex Salmond, the then-leaders of the UK and Scottish governments, signed the Edinburgh Agreement to give Holyrood the power to call the referendum. The power to call a referendum is reserved to Westminster. Section 30 of the 1998 Scotland Act is the mechanism by which Holyrood can legislate on reserved areas.
Nicola Sturgeon - also a signatory of the Edinburgh Agreement, as deputy first minister - now wants to get a similar agreement from the current PM, Theresa May. For the 2014 vote, David Cameron and Alex Salmond, the then-leaders of the UK and Scottish governments, signed the Edinburgh Agreement to give Holyrood the power to call the referendum.
Her first step will be to ask MSPs for their backing over this. The Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems have all indicated they will vote against Ms Sturgeon's proposals, but crucially the Greens will back her. Nicola Sturgeon - also a signatory of the Edinburgh Agreement, as deputy first minister - wants to get a similar deal from the current PM, Mrs May.
If all voting MSPs turn up, that will give the first minister a majority of 69 to 59. Her first step will be to ask MSPs for their backing over this. The Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems have all indicated they will vote against Ms Sturgeon's proposals, but crucially the Greens will back her. If all voting MSPs turn up, that will give the first minister a majority of 69 to 59.
Will the UK government grant a Section 30 order?Will the UK government grant a Section 30 order?
This remains to be seen. In the short term, the answer is no.
The UK government has said a referendum would be "divisive" and would "cause huge economic uncertainty at the worst possible time", but has stopped short of saying it would refuse permission outright.The UK government has said a referendum would be "divisive" and would "cause huge economic uncertainty at the worst possible time", but has stopped short of saying it would refuse permission outright.
Mrs May and Scottish Secretary David Mundell, when pressed on the issue, have repeatedly sought to turn the question into one of "should" there be a referendum, rather than "could". Instead, Mrs May says "now is not the time". She wants to focus on the Brexit talks for the next few years, arguing that Scottish voters would not have enough information to make a "crucial decision" on the Union in the meantime.
Technically, they could say no - but this would be politically risky. The debate is more likely to focus on when a referendum might be held, rather than if. Her Scottish Secretary David Mundell emphasised this shortly afterwards, saying that it would not be "fair" to hold a vote until it is clear what the UK's relationship with the EU is like in the post-Brexit world.
When might the referendum be held? So the UK government have not said "never" - but they have said "not yet".
Ms Sturgeon has outlined a window towards the end of the Brexit process in which she wants the vote to take place, between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019. So when might a referendum be held?
Ms Sturgeon outlined a window towards the end of the Brexit process in which she wants the vote to take place, between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019.
The first minister wants the picture of the final Brexit deal to become clear, so that she can offer Scottish voters an "informed choice" before the UK leaves the EU.The first minister wants the picture of the final Brexit deal to become clear, so that she can offer Scottish voters an "informed choice" before the UK leaves the EU.
However the UK government may argue that it would be better to wait until after Brexit is complete, so they can focus on one constitutional issue at a time. But her timetable has now been rejected by the UK government, who don't believe the picture of Brexit will be clear until well after the UK is out of the EU - effectively, they say Brexit needs time to 'bed in'.
Who will decide? This will be the subject of negotiation - but Ms Sturgeon wants Holyrood to have the final say. Does this mean there could be a referendum later, in 2019 or 2020? Mr Mundell has refused to speculate about possible dates.
The two governments are at something of an impasse over this - but Ms Sturgeon wants to push ahead with the Holyrood side of the process in the meantime, arguing the Scottish Parliament should have the final say.
What would the question be?What would the question be?
This will also be the subject of intense negotiation. The draft referendum bill put out for consultation in 2016 was based on a question matching that approved by the Electoral Commission in 2014: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" This would also be the subject of intense negotiation, should we get that far. The draft referendum bill put out for consultation in 2016 was based on a question matching that approved by the Electoral Commission in 2014: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
The UK government might argue for a Remain/Leave style question, like that of the EU referendum.The UK government might argue for a Remain/Leave style question, like that of the EU referendum.
Again, Ms Sturgeon wants Holyrood to have the final say, but she acknowledges that the Electoral Commission could intervene.Again, Ms Sturgeon wants Holyrood to have the final say, but she acknowledges that the Electoral Commission could intervene.
What do the polls say?What do the polls say?
In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, there was a bounce in the polls in favour of Scottish independence. But this quickly fell away to leave levels of support roughly where they were at the last referendum.In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, there was a bounce in the polls in favour of Scottish independence. But this quickly fell away to leave levels of support roughly where they were at the last referendum.
But more recently, an Ipsos Mori poll for STV found respondents likely to vote split 50-50. But more recently, an Ipsos Mori poll for STV found that respondents likely to vote were split 50-50.
And a BMG survey for the Herald on the eve of Ms Sturgeon's announcement suggested support for the Union is still narrowly ahead, at 52% to 48%.And a BMG survey for the Herald on the eve of Ms Sturgeon's announcement suggested support for the Union is still narrowly ahead, at 52% to 48%.
The Scottish Social Attitudes Survey found support for independence at an all-time high - but it also found the popularity of the EU had fallen, with Eurosceptism higher than ever.
Fancy a flutter? Here are the oddsFancy a flutter? Here are the odds
Most bookmakers responded to Ms Sturgeon's announcement by making an independence vote the odds-on favourite result of the next referendum.Most bookmakers responded to Ms Sturgeon's announcement by making an independence vote the odds-on favourite result of the next referendum.
Ladbrokes had Yes to independence at 8/11, with a No vote at 11/10, while William Hill also had No at 11/10 and Yes at 4/6 - with Coral offering the exact same odds.Ladbrokes had Yes to independence at 8/11, with a No vote at 11/10, while William Hill also had No at 11/10 and Yes at 4/6 - with Coral offering the exact same odds.
Paddy Power had a pro-independence vote at 1/2, with odds of 6/4 on there being a vote in favour of remaining in the UK.Paddy Power had a pro-independence vote at 1/2, with odds of 6/4 on there being a vote in favour of remaining in the UK.
However, Paddy Power had 2020 or later as the clear favourite in terms of when the vote is held, with odds of 4/7, while the last three months of 2018 is at 7/1.However, Paddy Power had 2020 or later as the clear favourite in terms of when the vote is held, with odds of 4/7, while the last three months of 2018 is at 7/1.
Could Scotland remain in the EU if there's a Yes vote? After Mrs May's announcement, Paddy Power cut odds of a referendum in 2020 or later to evens, while they put the odds of a pro-independence vote at 4/7.
Could Scotland remain in the EU if there was a Yes vote?
Ms Sturgeon was asked directly if she backed full EU membership for Scotland, and she cited it as being "SNP policy". There has been debate over this point due to a number of SNP members backing Brexit, leading some to speculate that the party might not commit to full membership.Ms Sturgeon was asked directly if she backed full EU membership for Scotland, and she cited it as being "SNP policy". There has been debate over this point due to a number of SNP members backing Brexit, leading some to speculate that the party might not commit to full membership.
In any case, there is a distinction to be drawn between Scotland staying in the EU as the rest of the UK leaves, and it rejoining at a later date as an independent country.In any case, there is a distinction to be drawn between Scotland staying in the EU as the rest of the UK leaves, and it rejoining at a later date as an independent country.
In 2012, the EU said Scotland would have to reapply for membership after leaving the UK, then a member state. Today, MEPs still say Scotland would have to re-enter, but some important groups, such as the Spanish, have said they would not seek to "veto" Scotland becoming a member state.In 2012, the EU said Scotland would have to reapply for membership after leaving the UK, then a member state. Today, MEPs still say Scotland would have to re-enter, but some important groups, such as the Spanish, have said they would not seek to "veto" Scotland becoming a member state.
Given the unprecedented nature of Brexit, this is another point there will be negotiation - and no doubt a row - over.Given the unprecedented nature of Brexit, this is another point there will be negotiation - and no doubt a row - over.
Who will lead the campaigns? It is thought the SNP would look to use membership of the European Economic Area as an initial "stepping stone" towards full EU membership.
The faces on both sides of the campaign will be somewhat different.
Alex Salmond was the figurehead for the pro-independence campaign in 2014; although he's unlikely to be far from the action, Ms Sturgeon is likely to take on the leadership role, as she took his place as first minister.
On the No side, there is likely to be a complete change - key 2014 players like Alistair Darling, David Cameron and Jim Murphy have barely been seen in Scotland since.
It is unlikely there will be a repeat of the cross-party "Better Together" campaign - Labour, who suffered an electoral mauling in the aftermath of the last referendum, have said they would not join one.