This article is from the source 'washpo' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/poll-points-to-hung-irish-parliament--or-historic-alliance/2016/02/27/a6f03310-dd24-11e5-8210-f0bd8de915f6_story.html

The article has changed 5 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 3 Version 4
Early Irish election results suggest foes must become allies Irish leader rues ‘merciless’ election losses, seeks allies
(about 7 hours later)
DUBLIN — Ireland could be on course for a historic coalition between two longtime political foes — the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail parties — as the first official election results were announced Saturday. DUBLIN — Ireland could be on course for a historic alliance between age-old foes — the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail parties — as partial election results Saturday revealed strong voter rejection of the existing coalition government of Prime Minister Enda Kenny.
A comprehensive exit poll and partial official results from Friday’s election suggest the governing Fine Gael of Prime Minister Enda Kenny and the main opposition Fianna Fail offer the most obvious combination to create a stable new government. Kenny said he was surprised by the unexpectedly strong losses for his centrist Fine Gael and even heavier blows for his left-wing partner, Labour. “Democracy can be very exciting but it’s merciless,” he said.
The two parties, which trace their origins to opposite sides of the 1922-23 civil war that followed Ireland’s independence from Britain, have never shared power before. But analysts say Fine Gael is on course to keep fewer than 50 of the 158 total seats in Ireland’s parliament, while Fianna Fail could win more than 40, making them the best choice on paper to forge a majority. Yet Ireland’s soft-spoken leader vowed to remain in office atop a new coalition and would seek new allies with the sole aim of creating “as stable a government as can be created.” He declined to rule out a historic partnership with Fianna Fail, which has never shared power with Fine Gael since their founders took opposite sides in Ireland’s civil war 94 years ago.
A parliamentary majority requires at least 79 lawmakers, although stable Irish governments typically require a larger cushion of support. With all 40 of Ireland’s constituencies reporting official first-round results, Fine Gael attracted 25.5 percent of first-preference votes in Friday’s election, down 10.6 percentage points from the last election in 2011.
Fianna Fail chief Micheal Martin, whose party suffered its worst-ever defeat in 2011 after taking Ireland to the brink of bankruptcy, said he believed Irish voters want a change in government. But when asked whether that could mean a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail partnership, he demurred. However, many rounds of ballot counting were yet to come under Ireland’s complex system of proportional representation. Declared winners for all 158 seats in Ireland’s parliament were expected by Monday.
Fianna Fail — which faced political ruin in 2011 after leading the country to the brink of bankruptcy and a humiliating international bailout — mounted an unexpectedly strong comeback. The party took 24.3 percent of first-preference votes and appeared poised to double its parliamentary seats at the expense of Fine Gael and Labour. The latter retained just 6.6 percent support, off 12.8 percentage points from 2011.
Finishing a somewhat lackluster third was the nationalist Sinn Fein, a hard-left critic of the government’s painful but broadly successful pursuit of austerity. Sinn Fein won 13.8 percent support as it sought to capitalize on voter discontent over an era of tax hikes, spending cuts and pruned wages that Ireland is only starting to leave behind.
But protest votes against austerity flew in myriad directions to a half-dozen other small parties and independents.
With Fine Gael and Fianna Fail now nearly even in public support, the question is who can negotiate an alliance sufficient to hold a majority in Ireland’s 158-seat parliament: Kenny or Fianna Fail chief Micheal Martin.
Martin, like Kenny, remained coy on the prospect of forging an alliance. But he said voters wanted a new government, so he intended to nominate himself as prime minister when the new parliament convenes March 10.
“We’re committed to doing our best by the country and ensuring that the country gets a good government,” Martin said. “But it will take time.”“We’re committed to doing our best by the country and ensuring that the country gets a good government,” Martin said. “But it will take time.”
Martin said any successful coalition negotiation “has to be very much focused on the issues and on policies, and not just on numbers.”Martin said any successful coalition negotiation “has to be very much focused on the issues and on policies, and not just on numbers.”
Martin said he intended to nominate himself, not Kenny, to be elected prime minister when the new parliament convenes March 10. But he declined to rule out coalition talks with Kenny. Ireland’s former Fianna Fail prime minister, Bertie Ahern, forecast that neither Kenny nor Martin would win majority backing March 10. Ahern, renowned as the savviest coalition negotiator of his generation, said he expected no deal until well after Ireland’s national holiday, St. Patrick’s Day, on March 17.
And Justice Minister Frances Fitzgerald, who retained her parliamentary seat for Fine Gael, also declined to rule out talks with Fianna Fail. Most analysts forecast that Fine Gael would win around 50 seats, versus the 76 it won five years ago, while Fianna Fail should win more than 40, at least doubling its 2011 total of 20.
“There’s an onus on everyone to see how we get a stable government,” she said. A parliamentary majority requires at least 79 lawmakers, although stable Irish governments typically require a larger cushion of support.
If the two traditional enemies cannot negotiate a pact, Fine Gael or Fianna Fail could seek support from a dizzying array of small parties and independents likely to be elected as results trickle in Saturday night and Sunday. If Ireland’s two political heavyweights cannot negotiate a pact, Fine Gael or Fianna Fail could seek support from a dizzying array of small parties and independents on target for election as results kept trickling in Saturday night and Sunday across this nation of 4.6 million.
Both of Ireland’s traditional big party have ruled out including Saturday’s third-place finisher, the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein, in the next government, citing its links to the Irish Republican Army. Both parties have ruled out including Sinn Fein in the next government, citing its links to the Irish Republican Army, even though that underground group has observed a cease-fire since 1997. Both Kenny and Martin saved their sharpest campaign attacks for Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, questioning his own IRA record and alleged involvement in cover-ups of unsolved crimes.
The exit poll for Irish state broadcaster RTE said Fine Gael received 24.8 percent of first-preference votes, Fianna Fail 21.1 percent and Sinn Fein 16 percent. Kenny’s partner in his 5-year-old coalition government, the union-dominated Labour Party, faced the loss of most of its seats with just 7.1 percent voter support. Ironically, Fine Gael’s and Fianna Fail’s shared hostility to Sinn Fein could emerge as the greatest issue barring any serious consideration of a so-called “Fine Fail” government.
The poll involved face-to-face surveys of 4,283 people who had just voted in all 40 constituencies. It had an unusually precise error margin of 1.5 percentage points. Senior lawmakers from both establishment parties noted that if they both went into government at the same time, Sinn Fein would be left to dominate the opposition benches and position itself to become the voters’ next choice for power.
Labour Party strategist Derek McDowell said the projected results reflected an electorate hostile to Ireland’s three establishment parties following the country’s humiliating 2010 bailout under a Fianna Fail-led government and years of tough austerity measures under the current Fine Gael-Labour coalition. Transport Minister Leo Varadkar said he didn’t want Fine Gael to share power with Fianna Fail “just because the numbers add up.” He expressed distrust of Fianna Fail, warned that such a partnership would be unstable and prone to breakdowns, and “would open the door to a Sinn Fein government in a very short time.”
While Ireland exited the bailout and returned to Europe-leading growth following the Fine Gael-Labour election triumph of 2011, much of the public remains saddled with higher taxes, poor public services, negative mortgages and weaker wages. The results from Friday’s election will take at least two days to calculate because Ireland uses a complex electoral system designed to ensure that smaller parties and independents win seats. Each of Ireland’s 40 districts elects three to five lawmakers each.
“One of the reasons we did so well in 2011 was because people accepted we needed a strong government to get us out of an extraordinary mess. There isn’t any such acceptance now,” McDowell said. Voters are permitted to rate all candidates on the ballot paper in order of preference. This means electoral officials must tabulate results in several laborious rounds, transferring lower-preference votes from victorious or eliminated candidates to those still in contention for remaining seats.
The results from Friday’s election could take days to compile because Ireland uses a complex system of proportional representation designed to ensure that smaller parties and independents win seats. Voters are permitted to rate candidates in order of preference, and this means electoral officials must tabulate results in several laborious rounds. One other mix-up and delay reflected the dynastic, often nepotistic nature of Irish politics.
In County Kerry, officials struggled to confirm even the first-preference results after a marathon 14-hour count — because two leading candidates, Danny and Michael Healy-Rae, are brothers and ballot counters accidentally scrambled their vote counts. Tempers frayed as a late-night recount was ordered.
With midnight approaching, Michael Healy-Rae finally was declared Kerry’s first winner. Boisterous supporters lifted the lawmaker into the air, his trademark farmer’s cap somehow staying on his head, as they sang his campaign song: “Make your vote and pray, that he goes all the way! He’s flat to the mat with his black cap, and there’s no time for tae (tea).”
Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.