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Poll points to hung Irish parliament — or historic alliance Early Irish election results suggest foes must become allies
(about 9 hours later)
DUBLIN — A detailed exit poll for Ireland’s election has found that most voters spurned the coalition government of Prime Minister Enda Kenny and the country faces either a hung parliament with no workable majority — or an alliance between the traditional polar opposites of political life. DUBLIN — Ireland could be on course for a historic coalition between two longtime political foes — the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail parties — as the first official election results were announced Saturday.
The poll by Irish broadcasters RTE was revealed hours ahead of Saturday’s start to a ballot count expected to run into Sunday. A comprehensive exit poll and partial official results from Friday’s election suggest the governing Fine Gael of Prime Minister Enda Kenny and the main opposition Fianna Fail offer the most obvious combination to create a stable new government.
The poll says Kenny’s Fine Gael party has received 24.8 percent of first-preference votes — much lower than any opinion poll during Ireland’s three-week election campaign — while the party’s age-old enemy Fianna Fail has won 21.1 percent. The two parties, which trace their origins to opposite sides of the 1922-23 civil war that followed Ireland’s independence from Britain, have never shared power before. But analysts say Fine Gael is on course to keep fewer than 50 of the 158 total seats in Ireland’s parliament, while Fianna Fail could win more than 40, making them the best choice on paper to forge a majority.
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael trace their roots to opposite sides in the 1922-23 civil war that followed Ireland’s independence from Britain. They have never worked together in government, and both Kenny and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin ruled out the prospect of partnership. A parliamentary majority requires at least 79 lawmakers, although stable Irish governments typically require a larger cushion of support.
The poll involved face-to-face surveys of 4,283 people who had just voted in all 40 constituencies at 225 polling stations. It had an unusually precise error margin of 1.5 percentage points. Fianna Fail chief Micheal Martin, whose party suffered its worst-ever defeat in 2011 after taking Ireland to the brink of bankruptcy, said he believed Irish voters want a change in government. But when asked whether that could mean a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail partnership, he demurred.
If the poll findings are borne out in official results, the obvious question is how Kenny, leader of the largest party, can cobble together a parliamentary majority from other parties. “We’re committed to doing our best by the country and ensuring that the country gets a good government,” Martin said. “But it will take time.”
The poll found that voters gave Kenny’s current coalition partner, the left-wing Labour Party, just 7.1 percent of first-preference votes. Martin said any successful coalition negotiation “has to be very much focused on the issues and on policies, and not just on numbers.”
Typically an Irish government needs to win more than 40 percent of first-preference votes to command a majority in Ireland’s 158-seat parliament. Martin said he intended to nominate himself, not Kenny, to be elected prime minister when the new parliament convenes March 10. But he declined to rule out coalition talks with Kenny.
The projected results make this difficult, if not impossible, for Fine Gael without Fianna Fail. Both center-ground parties have ruled out cooperation with the party expected to finish third, the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein. And Justice Minister Frances Fitzgerald, who retained her parliamentary seat for Fine Gael, also declined to rule out talks with Fianna Fail.
Labour Party strategist Derek McDowell said the projected results reflected an electorate hostile to Ireland’s three establishment parties following the country’s humiliating 2010 bailout under a Fianna Fail-led government and years of tough austerity measures under the current Fine Gael-Labour coalition. While Ireland exited the bailout and returned to Europe-leading growth following the Fine Gael-Labour election triumph of 2011, much of the public remains saddled with higher taxes, poor public services, negative mortgages and weaker wages. “There’s an onus on everyone to see how we get a stable government,” she said.
If the two traditional enemies cannot negotiate a pact, Fine Gael or Fianna Fail could seek support from a dizzying array of small parties and independents likely to be elected as results trickle in Saturday night and Sunday.
Both of Ireland’s traditional big party have ruled out including Saturday’s third-place finisher, the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein, in the next government, citing its links to the Irish Republican Army.
The exit poll for Irish state broadcaster RTE said Fine Gael received 24.8 percent of first-preference votes, Fianna Fail 21.1 percent and Sinn Fein 16 percent. Kenny’s partner in his 5-year-old coalition government, the union-dominated Labour Party, faced the loss of most of its seats with just 7.1 percent voter support.
The poll involved face-to-face surveys of 4,283 people who had just voted in all 40 constituencies. It had an unusually precise error margin of 1.5 percentage points.
Labour Party strategist Derek McDowell said the projected results reflected an electorate hostile to Ireland’s three establishment parties following the country’s humiliating 2010 bailout under a Fianna Fail-led government and years of tough austerity measures under the current Fine Gael-Labour coalition.
While Ireland exited the bailout and returned to Europe-leading growth following the Fine Gael-Labour election triumph of 2011, much of the public remains saddled with higher taxes, poor public services, negative mortgages and weaker wages.
“One of the reasons we did so well in 2011 was because people accepted we needed a strong government to get us out of an extraordinary mess. There isn’t any such acceptance now,” McDowell said.“One of the reasons we did so well in 2011 was because people accepted we needed a strong government to get us out of an extraordinary mess. There isn’t any such acceptance now,” McDowell said.
The poll found that Sinn Fein received 16 percent of first-preference votes, sufficient to double its number of lawmakers — but not enough to give either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail a majority, even if either cut a deal with the Irish Republican Army-linked party. The results from Friday’s election could take days to compile because Ireland uses a complex system of proportional representation designed to ensure that smaller parties and independents win seats. Voters are permitted to rate candidates in order of preference, and this means electoral officials must tabulate results in several laborious rounds.
Michael Marsh, a political scientist at Trinity College Dublin, said that based on the poll data and past electoral trends, he expects Fine Gael to win 47 seats, Fianna Fail 37, Sinn Fein 27, Labour nine, and a dizzying array of largely left-wing small parties and independents the rest.
A bare parliamentary majority requires maintaining an alliance of at least 79 lawmakers, though stable Irish governments typically require a larger cushion of support to avoid crises and collapse.
The results from Friday’s election could take days to compile and confirm because Ireland uses a complex system of proportional representation designed to ensure that smaller parties and independents win seats. Voters are permitted to rate candidates in order of preference, and this requires electoral officials to tabulate results in several laborious rounds.
Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.