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Ireland general election: exit polls show coalition losing majority – live Ireland general election: second vote likely after inconclusive result – live
(35 minutes later)
3.33pm GMT
15:33
Arriving at the count centre for Dublin constituencies, Sinn Fein’s vice president, Mary Lou McDonald, has described the possibility of a Fianna Fail and Fine Gael “grand coalition” as the “stuff of nightmares”.
It’s been something that she and others in Sinn Fein have been saying for some time now.
What was unsaid however was that it could also be the scenario that could allow Sinn Fein to go from being one of a number of opposition groups to being the opposition in a left-right drive, a major coup for a party that has focused on a political project of building a mass popular support base since the 1994 IRA ceasefire.
Experts at creating a 'moment'. Sinn Fein's Vice Pres in Dublin. Mobbed by media #ge16 https://t.co/owo8ADF4jh
3.05pm GMT
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The former Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has said that the heavy losses now being suffered by the party are a consequence of necessary but unpopular decisions which it had to make after going into coalition five years ago.
He told RTE:
I think it started in 2011 when Fine Gael and Labour formed a government together and had to do very many unpopular things.
Today is not a good day for the [Labour] party but I think it is something that we can recover from.
Asked if he had any regrets, Gilmore said “no”, adding that Labour had gone into government at a moment of crisis for the country.
I think most people try to make decisions and get elected at the same time. But there are occasions when you have to make the choice between doing the right thing and the popular thing. Our country was broke ... We knew we had to take a risk.
The country was facing an existential crisis at that time. It had to be fixed and it was. We could have ended up with a second bailout. We could have faced a situation like Greece.
Gilmore, at one stage touted as future Taoiseach amid rocketing approval ratings for him and his party, resigned as leader in May 2014 after huge losses at the local and European elections.
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To give you an idea of how complicated determining the victors in the Irish election, take the first completed count in Galway East as an example. There were 45,238 valid votes for the constituency and because there are three seats in play, the quota is set at 11,310 votes. To give you an idea of how complicated it is to determine the victors in the Irish election, let’s take the first completed count in Galway East as an example. There were 45,238 valid votes for the constituency and because there are three seats in play, the quota is set at 11,310 votes.
RTE reports that Independent Alliance candidate Seán Canney came closest to reaching that level with 8,447 votes, followed by Fine Gael’s Ciaran Cannon at 7,123. Another Fine Gael candidate, Paul Connaughton, was next with 6,474, followed by Fianna Fáil’s Colm Keaveney at 5,436. Labour’s Lorraine Higgins got 4,531 first preferences and while Independent candidate Michael Fahy recorded 2,358 votes. RTE reports that the Independent Alliance candidate Seán Canney came closest to reaching that level with 8,447 votes, followed by Fine Gael’s Ciaran Cannon at 7,123. Another Fine Gael candidate, Paul Connaughton, was next with 6,474, followed by Fianna Fáil’s Colm Keaveney at 5,436. Labour’s Lorraine Higgins got 4,531 first preferences and the Independent candidate Michael Fahy recorded 2,358 votes.
As no candidate reached the required quota on the first count, the two lowest-polling candidates - the Green Party’s Máiréad Ní Chróinín (769 votes) and Direct Democracy Ireland’s Aengus Melia (489) - have been excluded and their votes will now be redistributed. As no candidate reached the required quota on the first count, the two lowest-polling candidates – the Green Party’s Máiréad Ní Chróinín (769 votes) and Direct Democracy Ireland’s Aengus Melia (489) – have been excluded and their votes will now be redistributed.
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2.32pm GMT2.32pm GMT
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It appears that the Labour party is facing a wipeout in the election, with leader and deputy prime minister Joan Burton facing a fierce battle to retain her seat.It appears that the Labour party is facing a wipeout in the election, with leader and deputy prime minister Joan Burton facing a fierce battle to retain her seat.
Other Labour ministers including Alex White, Kathleen Lynch, Ged Nash and Kevin Humphreys are also in for a tense weekend, with counting expected to take days under Ireland’s complex voting system.Other Labour ministers including Alex White, Kathleen Lynch, Ged Nash and Kevin Humphreys are also in for a tense weekend, with counting expected to take days under Ireland’s complex voting system.
The fate of Fine Gael ministers Pascal Donohoe and James Reilly is also uncertain.The fate of Fine Gael ministers Pascal Donohoe and James Reilly is also uncertain.
2.19pm GMT2.19pm GMT
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Forget the counting - the real drama in Arklow was a lost engagement ring, which somehow slipped off a voter’s finger and into a ballot box on Friday. Fortunately it has now been found, as Irish Independent and The Herald reporter Alan O’Keeffe tweets: Forget the counting - the real drama in Arklow was a lost engagement ring, which somehow slipped off a voter’s finger into a ballot box on Friday. Fortunately it has now been found, as Irish Independent and the Herald reporter Alan O’Keeffe tweets:
Presiding officer Jacqueline Donnery with diamond ring lost at Arklow polling station and found in ballot box today. pic.twitter.com/27GHC8TR4uPresiding officer Jacqueline Donnery with diamond ring lost at Arklow polling station and found in ballot box today. pic.twitter.com/27GHC8TR4u
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2.08pm GMT2.08pm GMT
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One bookmaker confidently predicts:One bookmaker confidently predicts:
We make a FG/FF government the 1/4 fav to be in place on 1st Jan 2017! #GE16 https://t.co/pLotIPMBgq pic.twitter.com/T5AFw2ytsAWe make a FG/FF government the 1/4 fav to be in place on 1st Jan 2017! #GE16 https://t.co/pLotIPMBgq pic.twitter.com/T5AFw2ytsA
Will there be a 2nd General Election? We say 8/11 No, but EVENS Yes! #GE16 https://t.co/pLotIPMBgqWill there be a 2nd General Election? We say 8/11 No, but EVENS Yes! #GE16 https://t.co/pLotIPMBgq
1.49pm GMT1.49pm GMT
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Mark Mortell, a Fine Gael strategist and Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s closest adviser, tells RTE that his party will end up with a similar number of seats to Fianna Fáil, but believes the prospects of another election are “very, very high”.Mark Mortell, a Fine Gael strategist and Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s closest adviser, tells RTE that his party will end up with a similar number of seats to Fianna Fáil, but believes the prospects of another election are “very, very high”.
“It won’t be easy for the two big parties to take the big step and come together.”“It won’t be easy for the two big parties to take the big step and come together.”
He says Ireland will have to review its political system once the outcome of its most uncertain election in recent times is decided: “The only word I can use right now is deep disappointment.”He says Ireland will have to review its political system once the outcome of its most uncertain election in recent times is decided: “The only word I can use right now is deep disappointment.”
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1.32pm GMT1.32pm GMT
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Henry McDonaldHenry McDonald
Whatever government is eventually formed in Dublin it may eventually be dealing with neighbours who are no longer fellow EU members. A British exit from the union would fuel fears in the republic that the border with Northern Ireland could be bolstered, freedom of movement restricted and most crucially of all, north-south and east-west trade (between Ireland and Britain) damaged.Whatever government is eventually formed in Dublin it may eventually be dealing with neighbours who are no longer fellow EU members. A British exit from the union would fuel fears in the republic that the border with Northern Ireland could be bolstered, freedom of movement restricted and most crucially of all, north-south and east-west trade (between Ireland and Britain) damaged.
Parties across the Irish political spectrum have called on UK voters to choose the remain option in June’s referendum. And to bolster that vote, David Cameron is in Northern Ireland today, visiting the Bushmills whiskey distillery and meeting farmers. Indeed the prime minister reached out to Ulster’s farming community, which has relied heavily on EU subsidies since the UK entered Europe.Parties across the Irish political spectrum have called on UK voters to choose the remain option in June’s referendum. And to bolster that vote, David Cameron is in Northern Ireland today, visiting the Bushmills whiskey distillery and meeting farmers. Indeed the prime minister reached out to Ulster’s farming community, which has relied heavily on EU subsidies since the UK entered Europe.
In a speech in Ahoghill – a North Antrim heartland of the unionist farming community – Cameron told farmers: “I would say it comes down to a very simple argument, which is do we want a greater United Kingdom inside the European Union with the safety, the strength and the prosperity, or do we want a great leap in the dark?”In a speech in Ahoghill – a North Antrim heartland of the unionist farming community – Cameron told farmers: “I would say it comes down to a very simple argument, which is do we want a greater United Kingdom inside the European Union with the safety, the strength and the prosperity, or do we want a great leap in the dark?”
He continued: “And I think particularly when it comes to farming you know what we have today – you know about the market access – you know about what we can do, and we could be putting all that at risk which I think would be very, very damaging for Britain’s farmers and for farmers here in Northern Ireland.”He continued: “And I think particularly when it comes to farming you know what we have today – you know about the market access – you know about what we can do, and we could be putting all that at risk which I think would be very, very damaging for Britain’s farmers and for farmers here in Northern Ireland.”
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at 2.05pm GMTat 2.05pm GMT
1.14pm GMT1.14pm GMT
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Never one to miss a publicity opportunity, Respect party leader George Galloway has offered his two cents’ worth on the Irish elections:Never one to miss a publicity opportunity, Respect party leader George Galloway has offered his two cents’ worth on the Irish elections:
The miscalled Irish Labour Party has been wiped out by the people. An ignominious end. These are the wages of sin #IrishElectionThe miscalled Irish Labour Party has been wiped out by the people. An ignominious end. These are the wages of sin #IrishElection
In an earlier tweet the London mayoral candidate said: “Wish I’d stood :-)”In an earlier tweet the London mayoral candidate said: “Wish I’d stood :-)”
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at 1.31pm GMTat 1.31pm GMT
12.57pm GMT12.57pm GMT
12:5712:57
Appearing a little earlier here in Dublin, Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness dismissed suggestions that the party could have done better if its leader, Gerry Adams, had stepped aside.Appearing a little earlier here in Dublin, Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness dismissed suggestions that the party could have done better if its leader, Gerry Adams, had stepped aside.
The Guardian’s Henry McDonald adds:The Guardian’s Henry McDonald adds:
Ireland’s former taoiseach Bertie Ahern had suggested on election day that Sinn Féin would have won an extra ten seats without being led by Adams, a figure which many in the Republic of Ireland feel is a reminder of the days of the IRA’s violent campaign.Ireland’s former taoiseach Bertie Ahern had suggested on election day that Sinn Féin would have won an extra ten seats without being led by Adams, a figure which many in the Republic of Ireland feel is a reminder of the days of the IRA’s violent campaign.
McGuinness, who was his key partner in the Irish peace process, dismissed any talk that Adams might step down as leader following this contest however.McGuinness, who was his key partner in the Irish peace process, dismissed any talk that Adams might step down as leader following this contest however.
He said “I don’t know how you can say that” after fielding questions about the generation of leaders like him and Adams.He said “I don’t know how you can say that” after fielding questions about the generation of leaders like him and Adams.
Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister said there would be a “dramatic increase” in the Sinn Féin share of the vote compared to the 9.9% they gained in the 2011 general election.Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister said there would be a “dramatic increase” in the Sinn Féin share of the vote compared to the 9.9% they gained in the 2011 general election.
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12.48pm GMT12.48pm GMT
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It looks like one of the mini-success stories of this election could be a new party, the Social Democrats, which contains a number of members who broke away from the Labour Party over its support for the government’s austerity platform.It looks like one of the mini-success stories of this election could be a new party, the Social Democrats, which contains a number of members who broke away from the Labour Party over its support for the government’s austerity platform.
One of its MPs, Róisín Shortall was optimistic:One of its MPs, Róisín Shortall was optimistic:
A delighted Roisin Shortall says the SocDems will take three seats, including her own and are hoping for more #GE16 pic.twitter.com/WmMi3BMLBJA delighted Roisin Shortall says the SocDems will take three seats, including her own and are hoping for more #GE16 pic.twitter.com/WmMi3BMLBJ
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12.36pm GMT
12:36
Here’s a brief guide to Ireland’s proportional representation voting system (via the Associated Press):
Voters get one ballot but can vote for as many listed candidates as they like in order of preference.
You can vote for every single politician with a hand-written No 1, 2, 3 and so on. In Dublin South-West, voters could pick from 1 to 21.
The preferential voting means ballots must be counted and recounted in multiple rounds.
At the end of each round, another winner on top is declared or, if nobody new has crossed that mathematical finish line, the weakest loser is eliminated.
Ballots that awarded the loser a No 1 are recounted, with lower-preference votes transferred to any candidates still in contention.
The system is designed to ensure that small parties and independents get a better chance to win a seat. The goal is to fill all 158 seats in Dáil Éireann, the key lower house of parliament that elects the government.
Clear on that? Good ...
Updated
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12.27pm GMT
12:27
The ‘big beasts’ are starting to arrive at Dublin’s election count centre, including Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister of Northern Ireland.
Massive cheer for Sinn Féin's Martin McGuiness as he arrives at the RDS pic.twitter.com/Q6DzRxfAzZ
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12.22pm GMT
12:22
I’ve just been speaking to a former senior advisor to Fianna Fáil in government, who says that it appears to have been a good election for his party, but freely admits that a “dynamic change” is under way in Irish politics.
“There certainly would seem to be a shift to the left,” said Derek Mooney. “We are seeing the clear emergence of a left but it’s not hard left versus right politics. There is a dynamic change away from the old party blocks.
“Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are now fishing out of the same pond and it’s increasingly a small one.”
Have a listen:
Updated
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12.18pm GMT
12:18
Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton has ruled out a second election – leaving us to assume that there will be a concerted attempt to reach a deal on a new government.
Whether that is between the two big beasts of Irish politics, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, remains to be seen
The Guardian’s Henry McDonald asked Bruton if another election was on the cards, given the messy outcome of this one, to which he replied tersely but firmly: “No, I don’t think so.”
'Will there be another election?' @henry_mcdonald asks FG's Richard BrutonAnswer: "I don't think so"FF/FG deal on? pic.twitter.com/nSewXI8S60
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12:05
The casualties are beginning to emerge. After a collapse of his support in the Dublin south central constituency, Labour party TD, Eric Byrne, has resigned himself to defeat.
It’s an early blow to Labour, which had been widely tipped to be facing a drubbing of the sort which Britain’s Liberal Democrats faced in the UK general election, after being the junior partner in a coalition which implemented an austerity-driven agenda.
Eric Byrne, the outgoing Labour TD in Dublin South-Central, has conceded that he will lose his seat https://t.co/PJytYkDFbK
Other Labour TDs who appear to be in early trouble include Arthur Spring in Kerry, son of a former leader of the party.
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12:01
New to Irish politics? Here’s a handy guide to what have been the main parties in recent times (not including relatively new entrants such as the Social Democrats and Renua, a new right of centre force):
Fine Gael: A party born out of loyalty to Irish independence military leader Michael Collins, who was assassinated by republican diehards for accepting the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty that partitioned Ireland. Now centre-right in economic policy, strongly pro-European and increasingly socially liberal. Won 76 seats in the 2011 general election: an all-time high.
Fianna Fáil: Founded by Michael Collins’s great civil war rival, Éamon de Valera, the party ultimately accepted the Anglo-Irish settlement and became the most successful political force in post-independence Irish history. Economically centrist, often populist, it was blamed for the collapse of the Celtic Tiger amid allegations that the party was too close to property speculators and bankers. In the last election it crashed to just 20 seats.
Sinn Féin: The party once known around the world as the political wing of the Provisional IRA has benefited enormously from the Northern Ireland peace process. Led by Gerry Adams, it had 14 seats in the last Dáil and is expected to build on that number this time around, positioning itself as a party of protest against austerity cuts.
Labour: The oldest party in the state and rooted in the trade unions, Labour faces the possibility of electoral meltdown akin to the Liberal Democrat wipeout in the UK last year. Labour was at the vanguard of social change as junior partner in the current government, championing the gay marriage referendum, but it also took flak over the coalition’s unpopular tax rises and public spending cuts.
Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit: Both parties are rooted in the far-left Socialist party (former Militant Tendency) and the Socialist Workers party. They draw support, like Sinn Féin, from urban working-class areas where there is widespread discontent over austerity.
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11:45
A little bit of gossip for you now from the Fianna Fáil camp: It appears that the party is weighing up two options, according to sources who have been speaking to my colleague, Henry McDonald. Those options are:
Take the above with a pinch of salt. Everyone spins, but it’s an insight into Fianna Fáil’s possible thinking at this point, after a surprisingly good election for the party, which many had written off after it was decimated five years ago.
Here’s a reminder of that dark day for the party, which translates into English as The Soldiers of Destiny:
Related: Fianna Fáil trounced as Fine Gael and Labour set to form coalition
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11:40
Here are some scenes from the counting centre in Dublin. There’s a lack of “big beast” politicians just yet, although activists are bedding in.
Scenes from Irish general election counting in Dublin #ge16 https://t.co/DaP8x25u84
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11.24am GMT
11:24
Enda Kenny’s biographer has been summing up his prospects of remaining as Ireland’s prime minister after all the post-election horse-trading.
John Downing writes in the Irish Independent:
At the very best, Mr Kenny will have to find and deploy considerable political wizardry if he is going to stay on as anchor tenant in Government Buildings.
But a boost for Fianna Fáil also means pressure for the party to make groundbreaking decisions in a likely hung Dáil. It also opens intriguing possibilities for other coalition options.
Downing’s book, written after Fine Gael’s 2011 electoral triumph, is titled The Unlikely Taoiseach. How much more “unlikely” will it be that Kenny holds the centre of power given his party’s losses this time around?
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11.20am GMT
11:20
One of the many stories from Ireland’s post-economic crisis elections has been the rise of support for leftwing groupings and individual campaigners.
It’s a trend which appears to be alive and well. In the five-seat north Dublin constituency of Fingal for example, early indications are that one such politician, Clare Daly, is taking an early lead.
In the south Dublin constituency of Dún Laoghaire, also a five-seater, the high-profile leftwing TD Richard Boyd Barrett is putting up a fight to hold on to the seat which he won at the last election.
Barrett, a leading voice in the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit grouping, is on 14.7% in early counting, but could yet be squeezed out later on as transfers between other parties take effect.
#dunl #GE16 @sundaybusiness Boyd Barrett arriving at count centre feeling confident pic.twitter.com/O8hTqeTUBq
Updated
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