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| Ireland general election: exit polls show coalition losing majority – live | Ireland general election: exit polls show coalition losing majority – live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 2.56pm GMT | |
| 14:56 | |
| To give you an idea of how complicated determining the victors in the Irish election, take the first completed count in Galway East as an example. There were 45,238 valid votes for the constituency and because there are three seats in play, the quota is set at 11,310 votes. | |
| RTE reports that Independent Alliance candidate Seán Canney came closest to reaching that level with 8,447 votes, followed by Fine Gael’s Ciaran Cannon at 7,123. Another Fine Gael candidate, Paul Connaughton, was next with 6,474, followed by Fianna Fáil’s Colm Keaveney at 5,436. Labour’s Lorraine Higgins got 4,531 first preferences and while Independent candidate Michael Fahy recorded 2,358 votes. | |
| As no candidate reached the required quota on the first count, the two lowest-polling candidates - the Green Party’s Máiréad Ní Chróinín (769 votes) and Direct Democracy Ireland’s Aengus Melia (489) - have been excluded and their votes will now be redistributed. | |
| 2.32pm GMT | |
| 14:32 | |
| It appears that the Labour party is facing a wipeout in the election, with leader and deputy prime minister Joan Burton facing a fierce battle to retain her seat. | |
| Other Labour ministers including Alex White, Kathleen Lynch, Ged Nash and Kevin Humphreys are also in for a tense weekend, with counting expected to take days under Ireland’s complex voting system. | |
| The fate of Fine Gael ministers Pascal Donohoe and James Reilly is also uncertain. | |
| 2.19pm GMT | 2.19pm GMT |
| 14:19 | 14:19 |
| Forget the counting - the real drama in Arklow was a lost engagement ring, which somehow slipped off a voter’s finger and into a ballot box on Friday. Fortunately it has now been found, as Irish Independent and The Herald reporter Alan O’Keeffe tweets: | Forget the counting - the real drama in Arklow was a lost engagement ring, which somehow slipped off a voter’s finger and into a ballot box on Friday. Fortunately it has now been found, as Irish Independent and The Herald reporter Alan O’Keeffe tweets: |
| Presiding officer Jacqueline Donnery with diamond ring lost at Arklow polling station and found in ballot box today. pic.twitter.com/27GHC8TR4u | Presiding officer Jacqueline Donnery with diamond ring lost at Arklow polling station and found in ballot box today. pic.twitter.com/27GHC8TR4u |
| 2.08pm GMT | 2.08pm GMT |
| 14:08 | 14:08 |
| One bookmaker confidently predicts: | One bookmaker confidently predicts: |
| We make a FG/FF government the 1/4 fav to be in place on 1st Jan 2017! #GE16 https://t.co/pLotIPMBgq pic.twitter.com/T5AFw2ytsA | We make a FG/FF government the 1/4 fav to be in place on 1st Jan 2017! #GE16 https://t.co/pLotIPMBgq pic.twitter.com/T5AFw2ytsA |
| Will there be a 2nd General Election? We say 8/11 No, but EVENS Yes! #GE16 https://t.co/pLotIPMBgq | Will there be a 2nd General Election? We say 8/11 No, but EVENS Yes! #GE16 https://t.co/pLotIPMBgq |
| 1.49pm GMT | 1.49pm GMT |
| 13:49 | 13:49 |
| Mark Mortell, a Fine Gael strategist and Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s closest adviser, tells RTE that his party will end up with a similar number of seats to Fianna Fáil, but believes the prospects of another election are “very, very high”. | Mark Mortell, a Fine Gael strategist and Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s closest adviser, tells RTE that his party will end up with a similar number of seats to Fianna Fáil, but believes the prospects of another election are “very, very high”. |
| “It won’t be easy for the two big parties to take the big step and come together.” | “It won’t be easy for the two big parties to take the big step and come together.” |
| He says Ireland will have to review its political system once the outcome of its most uncertain election in recent times is decided: “The only word I can use right now is deep disappointment.” | He says Ireland will have to review its political system once the outcome of its most uncertain election in recent times is decided: “The only word I can use right now is deep disappointment.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.01pm GMT | at 2.01pm GMT |
| 1.32pm GMT | 1.32pm GMT |
| 13:32 | 13:32 |
| Henry McDonald | Henry McDonald |
| Whatever government is eventually formed in Dublin it may eventually be dealing with neighbours who are no longer fellow EU members. A British exit from the union would fuel fears in the republic that the border with Northern Ireland could be bolstered, freedom of movement restricted and most crucially of all, north-south and east-west trade (between Ireland and Britain) damaged. | Whatever government is eventually formed in Dublin it may eventually be dealing with neighbours who are no longer fellow EU members. A British exit from the union would fuel fears in the republic that the border with Northern Ireland could be bolstered, freedom of movement restricted and most crucially of all, north-south and east-west trade (between Ireland and Britain) damaged. |
| Parties across the Irish political spectrum have called on UK voters to choose the remain option in June’s referendum. And to bolster that vote, David Cameron is in Northern Ireland today, visiting the Bushmills whiskey distillery and meeting farmers. Indeed the prime minister reached out to Ulster’s farming community, which has relied heavily on EU subsidies since the UK entered Europe. | Parties across the Irish political spectrum have called on UK voters to choose the remain option in June’s referendum. And to bolster that vote, David Cameron is in Northern Ireland today, visiting the Bushmills whiskey distillery and meeting farmers. Indeed the prime minister reached out to Ulster’s farming community, which has relied heavily on EU subsidies since the UK entered Europe. |
| In a speech in Ahoghill – a North Antrim heartland of the unionist farming community – Cameron told farmers: “I would say it comes down to a very simple argument, which is do we want a greater United Kingdom inside the European Union with the safety, the strength and the prosperity, or do we want a great leap in the dark?” | In a speech in Ahoghill – a North Antrim heartland of the unionist farming community – Cameron told farmers: “I would say it comes down to a very simple argument, which is do we want a greater United Kingdom inside the European Union with the safety, the strength and the prosperity, or do we want a great leap in the dark?” |
| He continued: “And I think particularly when it comes to farming you know what we have today – you know about the market access – you know about what we can do, and we could be putting all that at risk which I think would be very, very damaging for Britain’s farmers and for farmers here in Northern Ireland.” | He continued: “And I think particularly when it comes to farming you know what we have today – you know about the market access – you know about what we can do, and we could be putting all that at risk which I think would be very, very damaging for Britain’s farmers and for farmers here in Northern Ireland.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.05pm GMT | at 2.05pm GMT |
| 1.14pm GMT | 1.14pm GMT |
| 13:14 | 13:14 |
| Never one to miss a publicity opportunity, Respect party leader George Galloway has offered his two cents’ worth on the Irish elections: | Never one to miss a publicity opportunity, Respect party leader George Galloway has offered his two cents’ worth on the Irish elections: |
| The miscalled Irish Labour Party has been wiped out by the people. An ignominious end. These are the wages of sin #IrishElection | The miscalled Irish Labour Party has been wiped out by the people. An ignominious end. These are the wages of sin #IrishElection |
| In an earlier tweet the London mayoral candidate said: “Wish I’d stood :-)” | In an earlier tweet the London mayoral candidate said: “Wish I’d stood :-)” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.31pm GMT | at 1.31pm GMT |
| 12.57pm GMT | 12.57pm GMT |
| 12:57 | 12:57 |
| Appearing a little earlier here in Dublin, Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness dismissed suggestions that the party could have done better if its leader, Gerry Adams, had stepped aside. | Appearing a little earlier here in Dublin, Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness dismissed suggestions that the party could have done better if its leader, Gerry Adams, had stepped aside. |
| The Guardian’s Henry McDonald adds: | The Guardian’s Henry McDonald adds: |
| Ireland’s former taoiseach Bertie Ahern had suggested on election day that Sinn Féin would have won an extra ten seats without being led by Adams, a figure which many in the Republic of Ireland feel is a reminder of the days of the IRA’s violent campaign. | Ireland’s former taoiseach Bertie Ahern had suggested on election day that Sinn Féin would have won an extra ten seats without being led by Adams, a figure which many in the Republic of Ireland feel is a reminder of the days of the IRA’s violent campaign. |
| McGuinness, who was his key partner in the Irish peace process, dismissed any talk that Adams might step down as leader following this contest however. | McGuinness, who was his key partner in the Irish peace process, dismissed any talk that Adams might step down as leader following this contest however. |
| He said “I don’t know how you can say that” after fielding questions about the generation of leaders like him and Adams. | He said “I don’t know how you can say that” after fielding questions about the generation of leaders like him and Adams. |
| Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister said there would be a “dramatic increase” in the Sinn Féin share of the vote compared to the 9.9% they gained in the 2011 general election. | Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister said there would be a “dramatic increase” in the Sinn Féin share of the vote compared to the 9.9% they gained in the 2011 general election. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.30pm GMT | at 1.30pm GMT |
| 12.48pm GMT | 12.48pm GMT |
| 12:48 | 12:48 |
| It looks like one of the mini-success stories of this election could be a new party, the Social Democrats, which contains a number of members who broke away from the Labour Party over its support for the government’s austerity platform. | It looks like one of the mini-success stories of this election could be a new party, the Social Democrats, which contains a number of members who broke away from the Labour Party over its support for the government’s austerity platform. |
| One of its MPs, Róisín Shortall was optimistic: | One of its MPs, Róisín Shortall was optimistic: |
| A delighted Roisin Shortall says the SocDems will take three seats, including her own and are hoping for more #GE16 pic.twitter.com/WmMi3BMLBJ | A delighted Roisin Shortall says the SocDems will take three seats, including her own and are hoping for more #GE16 pic.twitter.com/WmMi3BMLBJ |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.29pm GMT | at 1.29pm GMT |
| 12.36pm GMT | 12.36pm GMT |
| 12:36 | 12:36 |
| Here’s a brief guide to Ireland’s proportional representation voting system (via the Associated Press): | Here’s a brief guide to Ireland’s proportional representation voting system (via the Associated Press): |
| Voters get one ballot but can vote for as many listed candidates as they like in order of preference. | Voters get one ballot but can vote for as many listed candidates as they like in order of preference. |
| You can vote for every single politician with a hand-written No 1, 2, 3 and so on. In Dublin South-West, voters could pick from 1 to 21. | You can vote for every single politician with a hand-written No 1, 2, 3 and so on. In Dublin South-West, voters could pick from 1 to 21. |
| The preferential voting means ballots must be counted and recounted in multiple rounds. | The preferential voting means ballots must be counted and recounted in multiple rounds. |
| At the end of each round, another winner on top is declared or, if nobody new has crossed that mathematical finish line, the weakest loser is eliminated. | At the end of each round, another winner on top is declared or, if nobody new has crossed that mathematical finish line, the weakest loser is eliminated. |
| Ballots that awarded the loser a No 1 are recounted, with lower-preference votes transferred to any candidates still in contention. | Ballots that awarded the loser a No 1 are recounted, with lower-preference votes transferred to any candidates still in contention. |
| The system is designed to ensure that small parties and independents get a better chance to win a seat. The goal is to fill all 158 seats in Dáil Éireann, the key lower house of parliament that elects the government. | The system is designed to ensure that small parties and independents get a better chance to win a seat. The goal is to fill all 158 seats in Dáil Éireann, the key lower house of parliament that elects the government. |
| Clear on that? Good ... | Clear on that? Good ... |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.28pm GMT | at 1.28pm GMT |
| 12.27pm GMT | 12.27pm GMT |
| 12:27 | 12:27 |
| The ‘big beasts’ are starting to arrive at Dublin’s election count centre, including Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister of Northern Ireland. | The ‘big beasts’ are starting to arrive at Dublin’s election count centre, including Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister of Northern Ireland. |
| Massive cheer for Sinn Féin's Martin McGuiness as he arrives at the RDS pic.twitter.com/Q6DzRxfAzZ | Massive cheer for Sinn Féin's Martin McGuiness as he arrives at the RDS pic.twitter.com/Q6DzRxfAzZ |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.26pm GMT | at 1.26pm GMT |
| 12.22pm GMT | 12.22pm GMT |
| 12:22 | 12:22 |
| I’ve just been speaking to a former senior advisor to Fianna Fáil in government, who says that it appears to have been a good election for his party, but freely admits that a “dynamic change” is under way in Irish politics. | I’ve just been speaking to a former senior advisor to Fianna Fáil in government, who says that it appears to have been a good election for his party, but freely admits that a “dynamic change” is under way in Irish politics. |
| “There certainly would seem to be a shift to the left,” said Derek Mooney. “We are seeing the clear emergence of a left but it’s not hard left versus right politics. There is a dynamic change away from the old party blocks. | “There certainly would seem to be a shift to the left,” said Derek Mooney. “We are seeing the clear emergence of a left but it’s not hard left versus right politics. There is a dynamic change away from the old party blocks. |
| “Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are now fishing out of the same pond and it’s increasingly a small one.” | “Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are now fishing out of the same pond and it’s increasingly a small one.” |
| Have a listen: | Have a listen: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.31pm GMT | at 12.31pm GMT |
| 12.18pm GMT | 12.18pm GMT |
| 12:18 | 12:18 |
| Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton has ruled out a second election – leaving us to assume that there will be a concerted attempt to reach a deal on a new government. | Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton has ruled out a second election – leaving us to assume that there will be a concerted attempt to reach a deal on a new government. |
| Whether that is between the two big beasts of Irish politics, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, remains to be seen | Whether that is between the two big beasts of Irish politics, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, remains to be seen |
| The Guardian’s Henry McDonald asked Bruton if another election was on the cards, given the messy outcome of this one, to which he replied tersely but firmly: “No, I don’t think so.” | The Guardian’s Henry McDonald asked Bruton if another election was on the cards, given the messy outcome of this one, to which he replied tersely but firmly: “No, I don’t think so.” |
| 'Will there be another election?' @henry_mcdonald asks FG's Richard BrutonAnswer: "I don't think so"FF/FG deal on? pic.twitter.com/nSewXI8S60 | 'Will there be another election?' @henry_mcdonald asks FG's Richard BrutonAnswer: "I don't think so"FF/FG deal on? pic.twitter.com/nSewXI8S60 |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.32pm GMT | at 12.32pm GMT |
| 12.05pm GMT | 12.05pm GMT |
| 12:05 | 12:05 |
| The casualties are beginning to emerge. After a collapse of his support in the Dublin south central constituency, Labour party TD, Eric Byrne, has resigned himself to defeat. | The casualties are beginning to emerge. After a collapse of his support in the Dublin south central constituency, Labour party TD, Eric Byrne, has resigned himself to defeat. |
| It’s an early blow to Labour, which had been widely tipped to be facing a drubbing of the sort which Britain’s Liberal Democrats faced in the UK general election, after being the junior partner in a coalition which implemented an austerity-driven agenda. | It’s an early blow to Labour, which had been widely tipped to be facing a drubbing of the sort which Britain’s Liberal Democrats faced in the UK general election, after being the junior partner in a coalition which implemented an austerity-driven agenda. |
| Eric Byrne, the outgoing Labour TD in Dublin South-Central, has conceded that he will lose his seat https://t.co/PJytYkDFbK | Eric Byrne, the outgoing Labour TD in Dublin South-Central, has conceded that he will lose his seat https://t.co/PJytYkDFbK |
| Other Labour TDs who appear to be in early trouble include Arthur Spring in Kerry, son of a former leader of the party. | Other Labour TDs who appear to be in early trouble include Arthur Spring in Kerry, son of a former leader of the party. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.32pm GMT | at 12.32pm GMT |
| 12.01pm GMT | 12.01pm GMT |
| 12:01 | 12:01 |
| New to Irish politics? Here’s a handy guide to what have been the main parties in recent times (not including relatively new entrants such as the Social Democrats and Renua, a new right of centre force): | New to Irish politics? Here’s a handy guide to what have been the main parties in recent times (not including relatively new entrants such as the Social Democrats and Renua, a new right of centre force): |
| Fine Gael: A party born out of loyalty to Irish independence military leader Michael Collins, who was assassinated by republican diehards for accepting the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty that partitioned Ireland. Now centre-right in economic policy, strongly pro-European and increasingly socially liberal. Won 76 seats in the 2011 general election: an all-time high. | Fine Gael: A party born out of loyalty to Irish independence military leader Michael Collins, who was assassinated by republican diehards for accepting the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty that partitioned Ireland. Now centre-right in economic policy, strongly pro-European and increasingly socially liberal. Won 76 seats in the 2011 general election: an all-time high. |
| Fianna Fáil: Founded by Michael Collins’s great civil war rival, Éamon de Valera, the party ultimately accepted the Anglo-Irish settlement and became the most successful political force in post-independence Irish history. Economically centrist, often populist, it was blamed for the collapse of the Celtic Tiger amid allegations that the party was too close to property speculators and bankers. In the last election it crashed to just 20 seats. | Fianna Fáil: Founded by Michael Collins’s great civil war rival, Éamon de Valera, the party ultimately accepted the Anglo-Irish settlement and became the most successful political force in post-independence Irish history. Economically centrist, often populist, it was blamed for the collapse of the Celtic Tiger amid allegations that the party was too close to property speculators and bankers. In the last election it crashed to just 20 seats. |
| Sinn Féin: The party once known around the world as the political wing of the Provisional IRA has benefited enormously from the Northern Ireland peace process. Led by Gerry Adams, it had 14 seats in the last Dáil and is expected to build on that number this time around, positioning itself as a party of protest against austerity cuts. | Sinn Féin: The party once known around the world as the political wing of the Provisional IRA has benefited enormously from the Northern Ireland peace process. Led by Gerry Adams, it had 14 seats in the last Dáil and is expected to build on that number this time around, positioning itself as a party of protest against austerity cuts. |
| Labour: The oldest party in the state and rooted in the trade unions, Labour faces the possibility of electoral meltdown akin to the Liberal Democrat wipeout in the UK last year. Labour was at the vanguard of social change as junior partner in the current government, championing the gay marriage referendum, but it also took flak over the coalition’s unpopular tax rises and public spending cuts. | Labour: The oldest party in the state and rooted in the trade unions, Labour faces the possibility of electoral meltdown akin to the Liberal Democrat wipeout in the UK last year. Labour was at the vanguard of social change as junior partner in the current government, championing the gay marriage referendum, but it also took flak over the coalition’s unpopular tax rises and public spending cuts. |
| Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit: Both parties are rooted in the far-left Socialist party (former Militant Tendency) and the Socialist Workers party. They draw support, like Sinn Féin, from urban working-class areas where there is widespread discontent over austerity. | Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit: Both parties are rooted in the far-left Socialist party (former Militant Tendency) and the Socialist Workers party. They draw support, like Sinn Féin, from urban working-class areas where there is widespread discontent over austerity. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.41pm GMT | at 12.41pm GMT |
| 11.45am GMT | 11.45am GMT |
| 11:45 | 11:45 |
| A little bit of gossip for you now from the Fianna Fáil camp: It appears that the party is weighing up two options, according to sources who have been speaking to my colleague, Henry McDonald. Those options are: | A little bit of gossip for you now from the Fianna Fáil camp: It appears that the party is weighing up two options, according to sources who have been speaking to my colleague, Henry McDonald. Those options are: |
| Take the above with a pinch of salt. Everyone spins, but it’s an insight into Fianna Fáil’s possible thinking at this point, after a surprisingly good election for the party, which many had written off after it was decimated five years ago. | Take the above with a pinch of salt. Everyone spins, but it’s an insight into Fianna Fáil’s possible thinking at this point, after a surprisingly good election for the party, which many had written off after it was decimated five years ago. |
| Here’s a reminder of that dark day for the party, which translates into English as The Soldiers of Destiny: | Here’s a reminder of that dark day for the party, which translates into English as The Soldiers of Destiny: |
| Related: Fianna Fáil trounced as Fine Gael and Labour set to form coalition | Related: Fianna Fáil trounced as Fine Gael and Labour set to form coalition |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.42pm GMT | at 12.42pm GMT |
| 11.40am GMT | 11.40am GMT |
| 11:40 | 11:40 |
| Here are some scenes from the counting centre in Dublin. There’s a lack of “big beast” politicians just yet, although activists are bedding in. | Here are some scenes from the counting centre in Dublin. There’s a lack of “big beast” politicians just yet, although activists are bedding in. |
| Scenes from Irish general election counting in Dublin #ge16 https://t.co/DaP8x25u84 | Scenes from Irish general election counting in Dublin #ge16 https://t.co/DaP8x25u84 |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.03pm GMT | at 12.03pm GMT |
| 11.24am GMT | 11.24am GMT |
| 11:24 | 11:24 |
| Enda Kenny’s biographer has been summing up his prospects of remaining as Ireland’s prime minister after all the post-election horse-trading. | Enda Kenny’s biographer has been summing up his prospects of remaining as Ireland’s prime minister after all the post-election horse-trading. |
| John Downing writes in the Irish Independent: | John Downing writes in the Irish Independent: |
| At the very best, Mr Kenny will have to find and deploy considerable political wizardry if he is going to stay on as anchor tenant in Government Buildings. | At the very best, Mr Kenny will have to find and deploy considerable political wizardry if he is going to stay on as anchor tenant in Government Buildings. |
| But a boost for Fianna Fáil also means pressure for the party to make groundbreaking decisions in a likely hung Dáil. It also opens intriguing possibilities for other coalition options. | But a boost for Fianna Fáil also means pressure for the party to make groundbreaking decisions in a likely hung Dáil. It also opens intriguing possibilities for other coalition options. |
| Downing’s book, written after Fine Gael’s 2011 electoral triumph, is titled The Unlikely Taoiseach. How much more “unlikely” will it be that Kenny holds the centre of power given his party’s losses this time around? | Downing’s book, written after Fine Gael’s 2011 electoral triumph, is titled The Unlikely Taoiseach. How much more “unlikely” will it be that Kenny holds the centre of power given his party’s losses this time around? |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.43pm GMT | at 12.43pm GMT |
| 11.20am GMT | 11.20am GMT |
| 11:20 | 11:20 |
| One of the many stories from Ireland’s post-economic crisis elections has been the rise of support for leftwing groupings and individual campaigners. | One of the many stories from Ireland’s post-economic crisis elections has been the rise of support for leftwing groupings and individual campaigners. |
| It’s a trend which appears to be alive and well. In the five-seat north Dublin constituency of Fingal for example, early indications are that one such politician, Clare Daly, is taking an early lead. | It’s a trend which appears to be alive and well. In the five-seat north Dublin constituency of Fingal for example, early indications are that one such politician, Clare Daly, is taking an early lead. |
| In the south Dublin constituency of Dún Laoghaire, also a five-seater, the high-profile leftwing TD Richard Boyd Barrett is putting up a fight to hold on to the seat which he won at the last election. | In the south Dublin constituency of Dún Laoghaire, also a five-seater, the high-profile leftwing TD Richard Boyd Barrett is putting up a fight to hold on to the seat which he won at the last election. |
| Barrett, a leading voice in the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit grouping, is on 14.7% in early counting, but could yet be squeezed out later on as transfers between other parties take effect. | Barrett, a leading voice in the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit grouping, is on 14.7% in early counting, but could yet be squeezed out later on as transfers between other parties take effect. |
| #dunl #GE16 @sundaybusiness Boyd Barrett arriving at count centre feeling confident pic.twitter.com/O8hTqeTUBq | #dunl #GE16 @sundaybusiness Boyd Barrett arriving at count centre feeling confident pic.twitter.com/O8hTqeTUBq |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.54pm GMT | at 12.54pm GMT |