Ohio no easy ride for Clinton

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By Louisa Brooke Columbus, Ohio Hillary Clinton is battling to survive in the race for the Democratic nomination after Barack Obama's winning streak since Super Tuesday.

Women have been the bedrock of Hillary Clinton's supportMr Obama has won 10 contests out of 10, and is pulling well ahead in the delegate stakes.

But Mrs Clinton could bounce back in two weeks with the primaries in Ohio and Texas, where a total of 334 delegates are up for grabs.

It has been described as her last stand.

"If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done," says James Carville, a former chief strategist to her husband Bill.

Mrs Clinton spent Tuesday campaigning in Ohio as Mr Obama swept to victory in Wisconsin, and was addressing a rally in the rust-belt city of Youngstown when most US networks cut away to her rival's victory speech.

"Conventional wisdom says that Ohio is Hillary's to lose," says veteran political analyst Todd Kleismit of the Ohio Historical Society.

"It's a declining manufacturing state with a base of Democratic supporters who are lower-income workers and union members fond of recalling the boom economy of the 1990s when Bill Clinton was in office," he says.

Passion

Immediately after Super Tuesday, he thought the conventional wisdom was correct - the race would be close, but Clinton would win.

Now he says it is "anybody's to win".

If Clinton is the nominee, I'll vote for her in November but I won't be out campaigning Tony Marconi, Democratic Party supporter Recent polls in Ohio are still encouraging for Mrs Clinton - more so than in Texas.

SurveyUSA this week put support for her at 52%, compared to 43% for Mr Obama, with 1% undecided.

A week ago, a Rasmussen Reports poll put her on 51%, and Mr Obama on 37%, with 12% undecided.

But on the ground, you meet plenty of voters who are inspired by Mr Obama.

In the small town of Delaware, on a sunny February morning shoppers mingle in the local bookstore on the high street.

Democratic party activist Martha Filipic clutches the last copy of Barack Obama's book The Audacity of Hope.

She says she is a passionate supporter of the Illinois senator.

Her husband is equally supportive. "I remember John F Kennedy and his energy," Tony Marconi says, his eyes bright with enthusiasm. "I haven't felt this much hope for a long time."

Tony's next comment may be dispiriting for Clinton's campaign team. He has served as a precinct captain in Ohio for the Democratic Party, and plans to actively campaign for Obama ahead of the primary.

But he is not enthused by Clinton's candidacy. "If Clinton is the nominee, I'll vote for her in November but I won't be out campaigning," he warns.

'Time for a woman'

He is not the only Democrat who is unsure about Hillary Clinton.

Obama has always done better at inspiring young votersAt Ohio State University in Columbus student Matt Toothman manages the large SBX bookstore opposite the campus.

"A lot of guys are put off by her, because she's very outspoken and I think she's calculating, whereas Obama is more real," he says.

Women make up one of Mrs Clinton's core constituencies and student Kelly Bradbury says she will probably vote for her "because she's a woman and its time for a female president".

But she adds that she likes Mr Obama too, and her friend Ann Ferrell falls squarely into the Obama camp.

"I saw him speak in Kentucky and he's exciting. He feels like change, his energy is great," Ann says.

Then there are those like bus driver Arnez Manigoe who likes both candidates. He's waiting to start his evening shift in central Columbus and loves to discuss politics.

Petrol prices

Getting out of Iraq is Arnez's primary concern and he wants a candidate who will bring troops home.

I don't see any reason why the pattern developed in Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin - of Obama being able to cut into the base of Hillary Clinton's vote - will stop Professor John Kessel, Ohio State University "American young men are losing their lives for nothing," is his view of the war. Ohio has one of the highest numbers of troop deaths in America.

But the lacklustre economy is not far from his thoughts either. He says his friends are feeling the pinch as petrol prices rise in a state that is already struggling with one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.

He does not expect to decide who to vote for until he is at the ballot box.

Lower-income groups and women have up to now been the bedrock of Hillary Clinton's support.

But in the latest primaries, they have begun to look less solid.

"I don't see any reason why the pattern developed in Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin - of Obama being able to cut into the base of Hillary Clinton's vote - will stop when you get to Ohio," says Professor John Kessel, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University.

In his view, Barack Obama will "do very well" in the state on 4 March.