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The Afghan Taliban enter uncharted territory | The Afghan Taliban enter uncharted territory |
(about 14 hours later) | |
The Afghan Taliban face the biggest challenge in their history. | The Afghan Taliban face the biggest challenge in their history. |
With the death of their revered leader Mullah Omar and the selection of a successor, the group has entered uncharted territory. | With the death of their revered leader Mullah Omar and the selection of a successor, the group has entered uncharted territory. |
Mullah Akhtar Mansour's appointment came after three days of talks among members of their religious council. | Mullah Akhtar Mansour's appointment came after three days of talks among members of their religious council. |
There were disagreements over the choice of Mansour, a native of Afghanistan's Kandahar province. | There were disagreements over the choice of Mansour, a native of Afghanistan's Kandahar province. |
Many powerful commanders, including the Taliban's top military commander, Abdul Qayum Zakir, have long-standing disagreements with him. | Many powerful commanders, including the Taliban's top military commander, Abdul Qayum Zakir, have long-standing disagreements with him. |
A faction within the Taliban wanted Mullah Omar's eldest son, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, to take over; other leading figures favoured Mullah Abdul Ghani Braradar, a founding member of the Taliban and Mullah Omar's former deputy. | A faction within the Taliban wanted Mullah Omar's eldest son, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, to take over; other leading figures favoured Mullah Abdul Ghani Braradar, a founding member of the Taliban and Mullah Omar's former deputy. |
Mullah Mansour served as aviation minister during Taliban rule and has been a deputy of Mullah Omar and acting head of the Taliban's Leadership Council for around three years. | Mullah Mansour served as aviation minister during Taliban rule and has been a deputy of Mullah Omar and acting head of the Taliban's Leadership Council for around three years. |
He has been accused of monopolising power and hijacking the movement. Some also accused him of being close to Pakistan. But he is seen as a pragmatist and a proponent of peace talks. | |
The biggest challenge for the new leader will be to keep the group united and inspire and motivate the rank-and-file members. | The biggest challenge for the new leader will be to keep the group united and inspire and motivate the rank-and-file members. |
The council also appointed the chief of Haqqani network, Sirajuddin Haqqani, as one of two deputies of the new leader. | The council also appointed the chief of Haqqani network, Sirajuddin Haqqani, as one of two deputies of the new leader. |
His other deputy is Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada, a religious scholar and former head of the Taliban courts. | |
As they represent different factions and tendencies, this seems to be part of an effort to make the group inclusive and united. | As they represent different factions and tendencies, this seems to be part of an effort to make the group inclusive and united. |
Mystique of absence | Mystique of absence |
Mullah Omar had become a mythical figure within the group, closely obeyed by the wider membership. | Mullah Omar had become a mythical figure within the group, closely obeyed by the wider membership. |
With a $10m (£6.4m) US bounty on his head, Mullah Omar kept an exceptionally low profile. | With a $10m (£6.4m) US bounty on his head, Mullah Omar kept an exceptionally low profile. |
He was not seen again in public after he left Kandahar on a motorbike when the Taliban regime fell in December 2001. | He was not seen again in public after he left Kandahar on a motorbike when the Taliban regime fell in December 2001. |
Mullah Omar was widely rumoured to be in Pakistan. A couple of sightings in Pakistan were reported, in 2004 and later in 2011, but the authorities there have always denied his presence on their soil. | Mullah Omar was widely rumoured to be in Pakistan. A couple of sightings in Pakistan were reported, in 2004 and later in 2011, but the authorities there have always denied his presence on their soil. |
He did not live with his wives and children, perhaps for security reasons. His eldest son, 27-year-old Mohammad Yaqoob, graduated recently from a religious seminary in Karachi. | He did not live with his wives and children, perhaps for security reasons. His eldest son, 27-year-old Mohammad Yaqoob, graduated recently from a religious seminary in Karachi. |
He has never issued a video statement and relied on audio messages to instruct his lieutenants and the Taliban leadership council. But apparently that, too, stopped around 2008. | He has never issued a video statement and relied on audio messages to instruct his lieutenants and the Taliban leadership council. But apparently that, too, stopped around 2008. |
He issued written statements usually twice a year for the two Muslim festivals of Eid. The latest of these statements, issued on 15 July, expressed support for the peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. | He issued written statements usually twice a year for the two Muslim festivals of Eid. The latest of these statements, issued on 15 July, expressed support for the peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. |
Mullah Omar was the glue that held the movement together since it was launched in 1994. He was both feared and revered. | Mullah Omar was the glue that held the movement together since it was launched in 1994. He was both feared and revered. |
His reclusiveness added to his mystique. However, in recent years, his absence fuelled rumours that he was dead or incapacitated. | His reclusiveness added to his mystique. However, in recent years, his absence fuelled rumours that he was dead or incapacitated. |
Over the past two years, questions about his life and whereabouts increased, putting pressure on Mansour to produce credible evidence he was alive. | Over the past two years, questions about his life and whereabouts increased, putting pressure on Mansour to produce credible evidence he was alive. |
Persistent rumours | Persistent rumours |
The other controversial point is the timing of Mullah Omar's death, as rumours of his ill-health and demise have circulated in the past. | The other controversial point is the timing of Mullah Omar's death, as rumours of his ill-health and demise have circulated in the past. |
Afghan and Nato officials have said around a dozen times over the last 14 years that Mullah Omar was dead. But the Taliban repeatedly denied this as "enemy propaganda". | Afghan and Nato officials have said around a dozen times over the last 14 years that Mullah Omar was dead. But the Taliban repeatedly denied this as "enemy propaganda". |
The Afghan government said on Wednesday that Mullah Omar died in a hospital in Karachi in April 2013, while other reports put it in July that year. | The Afghan government said on Wednesday that Mullah Omar died in a hospital in Karachi in April 2013, while other reports put it in July that year. |
But by some accounts Mullah Omar died in recent weeks of a heart attack. | But by some accounts Mullah Omar died in recent weeks of a heart attack. |
He had reportedly been ill for a long time and was operated on about four years ago after developing heart complications. | He had reportedly been ill for a long time and was operated on about four years ago after developing heart complications. |
The cause of his death is also a matter of debate. It is widely thought the Taliban leader died from an illness - some reports say tuberculosis, others mention hepatitis. | The cause of his death is also a matter of debate. It is widely thought the Taliban leader died from an illness - some reports say tuberculosis, others mention hepatitis. |
But several credible sources told me that he died of heart attack in Pakistan. | But several credible sources told me that he died of heart attack in Pakistan. |
Taliban sources say he was buried on the Afghan side of the border after his son identified his body. | Taliban sources say he was buried on the Afghan side of the border after his son identified his body. |
Question of legitimacy | Question of legitimacy |
The new Taliban leader will have to deal with two big problems. | The new Taliban leader will have to deal with two big problems. |
On one hand, it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for his successor to achieve the same popularity in the group. | On one hand, it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for his successor to achieve the same popularity in the group. |
On the other, disagreements could result in the fragmentation of the Taliban and possible defections to the so-called Islamic State (IS). | On the other, disagreements could result in the fragmentation of the Taliban and possible defections to the so-called Islamic State (IS). |
Mullah Omar had a dual role. He was the political and military leader of the Taliban but more importantly he was called Amir al-Mumineen (Leader of the Faithful). | |
The Taliban have a principle of "obedience to the Amir (leader)," which makes following orders a religious duty. | |
Mullah Omar was seen as a saintly figure to whom all the Taliban had pledged allegiance. | |
Even leaders of foreign militant groups such as al-Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan had sworn loyalty and accepted Mullah Omar as leader. | Even leaders of foreign militant groups such as al-Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan had sworn loyalty and accepted Mullah Omar as leader. |
But Mullah Mansour has now been given the same title of Leader of the Faithful. This means that he would expect the same religious legitimacy Mullah Omar had. | |
It will be a challenge for Mullah Mansoor to acquire the same wider appeal and legitimacy. | |
In the case of a questionable religious authority, members of militant groups including the Taliban and al-Qaeda could switch their loyalties to the leader of the IS who has declared himself the Caliph. | |
Although Mullah Mansoor does not have same stature as Mullah Omar, efforts are under way to resolve these internal disagreements within the Taliban. |
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