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| Trump remains in poll position despite comments on John McCain's service | Trump remains in poll position despite comments on John McCain's service |
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| Can anything stop Donald Trump’s rise in the polls? | Can anything stop Donald Trump’s rise in the polls? |
| The controversy over the real estate mogul’s remarks on John McCain’s war record has caused a firestorm among the Republican establishment, but recent data suggests that it may not hurt him with voters. | |
| The first poll partially conducted after Trump’s Saturday statement in Ames, Iowa, that John McCain was “not a hero” showed no impact on the former Celebrity Apprentice host’s support. In a poll of 452 Iowans likely to attend the Republican caucuses, Monmouth University found no “significant change in support for Trump in interviews conducted after his comments about John McCain’s military service”. | The first poll partially conducted after Trump’s Saturday statement in Ames, Iowa, that John McCain was “not a hero” showed no impact on the former Celebrity Apprentice host’s support. In a poll of 452 Iowans likely to attend the Republican caucuses, Monmouth University found no “significant change in support for Trump in interviews conducted after his comments about John McCain’s military service”. |
| The Monmouth poll showed Trump in second place in Iowa with the support of 13% of likely caucus-goers. While the real estate mogul was firmly behind Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, who stood at 22% in that poll, he was well ahead of his nearest competitor, the neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who polled at 8%. But what was most remarkable about Trump in that poll wasn’t his support – the real estate mogul is currently polling in first place nationally – but that voters were now viewing him in a far more favorable light. | The Monmouth poll showed Trump in second place in Iowa with the support of 13% of likely caucus-goers. While the real estate mogul was firmly behind Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, who stood at 22% in that poll, he was well ahead of his nearest competitor, the neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who polled at 8%. But what was most remarkable about Trump in that poll wasn’t his support – the real estate mogul is currently polling in first place nationally – but that voters were now viewing him in a far more favorable light. |
| In late May, a poll jointly conducted by Bloomberg Politics and the Des Moines Register had Trump receiving the support of only 4% of Iowa Republicans. Further, it showed that GOP caucus-goers had a fundamentally negative view of him. Only 27% viewed him favorably and a whopping 63% had an unfavorable view of him. That has changed dramatically in just six weeks. In the Monmouth poll, 47% of Republican voters in the state viewed him favorably and only 35% viewed him unfavorably. | In late May, a poll jointly conducted by Bloomberg Politics and the Des Moines Register had Trump receiving the support of only 4% of Iowa Republicans. Further, it showed that GOP caucus-goers had a fundamentally negative view of him. Only 27% viewed him favorably and a whopping 63% had an unfavorable view of him. That has changed dramatically in just six weeks. In the Monmouth poll, 47% of Republican voters in the state viewed him favorably and only 35% viewed him unfavorably. |
| This shift has been reflected in national polls as well. In its most recent national poll, Fox News had Trump leading the field with 18% of the vote. This was a dramatic improvement for the candidate over a poll conducted at the end of May, in which Trump was at an anemic 4% – which left him as the 10th-place candidate in the GOP field. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Monday, meanwhile, showed Trump with a commanding lead, with 24% of Republicans backing him, almost twice as many as those who backed second place candidate Scott Walker. | This shift has been reflected in national polls as well. In its most recent national poll, Fox News had Trump leading the field with 18% of the vote. This was a dramatic improvement for the candidate over a poll conducted at the end of May, in which Trump was at an anemic 4% – which left him as the 10th-place candidate in the GOP field. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Monday, meanwhile, showed Trump with a commanding lead, with 24% of Republicans backing him, almost twice as many as those who backed second place candidate Scott Walker. |
| The question is what, if anything, it will take for Trump supporters to back away the controversial candidate. While the 2012 Republican primary campaign was filled with candidates like Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann who had brief moments of glory before crashing to Earth, Trump is different. | The question is what, if anything, it will take for Trump supporters to back away the controversial candidate. While the 2012 Republican primary campaign was filled with candidates like Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann who had brief moments of glory before crashing to Earth, Trump is different. |
| Both Cain and Bachmann were relative unknowns before rising in the polls. In contrast, Trump has been a celebrity for decades. As the real estate mogul is fond of pointing out, his 1987 book The Art of The Deal is one of the bestselling business books in history, and Trump has been the host of the popular reality television shows The Apprentice and The Celebrity Apprentice. His three divorces and bombastic personal style have been tabloid fodder since he was a habitué of Studio 54. Trump is a known quantity. | Both Cain and Bachmann were relative unknowns before rising in the polls. In contrast, Trump has been a celebrity for decades. As the real estate mogul is fond of pointing out, his 1987 book The Art of The Deal is one of the bestselling business books in history, and Trump has been the host of the popular reality television shows The Apprentice and The Celebrity Apprentice. His three divorces and bombastic personal style have been tabloid fodder since he was a habitué of Studio 54. Trump is a known quantity. |
| What’s more, the controversial comments that have resulted in such scrutiny of Trump have played well with GOP voters. In the Fox News poll, 70% of Republicans thought that Trump’s controversial comments on Mexico – saying the country was “sending people that have lots of problems ... They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists” – were basically right. | What’s more, the controversial comments that have resulted in such scrutiny of Trump have played well with GOP voters. In the Fox News poll, 70% of Republicans thought that Trump’s controversial comments on Mexico – saying the country was “sending people that have lots of problems ... They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists” – were basically right. |
| In an early July interview, prominent Iowa social conservative radio host Steve Deace noted that the attacks from the media and the Republican establishment have redounded to Trump’s benefit. “This is branding that [Trump] couldn’t spend all $9bn of his money to buy,” said Deace. “The ultimate 1% is now being branded as a man of the people.” Deace thought that the only way Trump could be brought down is through the targeting of his inconsistent ideological record on issues like health care, abortion and gay rights. In the meantime, the Iowa activist simply thought “the Republican base was just dying for someone who has some balls”. | In an early July interview, prominent Iowa social conservative radio host Steve Deace noted that the attacks from the media and the Republican establishment have redounded to Trump’s benefit. “This is branding that [Trump] couldn’t spend all $9bn of his money to buy,” said Deace. “The ultimate 1% is now being branded as a man of the people.” Deace thought that the only way Trump could be brought down is through the targeting of his inconsistent ideological record on issues like health care, abortion and gay rights. In the meantime, the Iowa activist simply thought “the Republican base was just dying for someone who has some balls”. |
| As the Guardian reported in June, much of Trump’s appeal to Republican primary voters was his straight talking image. As New Hampshire state representative Stephen Stepanek said then, Trump “says things that most people want to say but are afraid to say ... [He] will call it the way it is and he’s not going to pander to make comments to please this constituency and that constituency.” | As the Guardian reported in June, much of Trump’s appeal to Republican primary voters was his straight talking image. As New Hampshire state representative Stephen Stepanek said then, Trump “says things that most people want to say but are afraid to say ... [He] will call it the way it is and he’s not going to pander to make comments to please this constituency and that constituency.” |
| Trump’s remarks about McCain’s service may still damage his candidacy. The ABC News/Washington Post poll included some respondents who offered their views on Sunday, after his comments about McCain and, among those, Trump’s support did decline significantly. But considering that Trump’s controversial remarks are what supporters like about the candidate, it is hard to imagine those comments alone being the reason they abandon him. | Trump’s remarks about McCain’s service may still damage his candidacy. The ABC News/Washington Post poll included some respondents who offered their views on Sunday, after his comments about McCain and, among those, Trump’s support did decline significantly. But considering that Trump’s controversial remarks are what supporters like about the candidate, it is hard to imagine those comments alone being the reason they abandon him. |