Donald Trump may have overstated his appeal among Hispanic voters, poll finds

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/16/univision-poll-donald-trump-hispanic-voters

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A few weeks after identifying some of them as “rapists”, Donald Trump called on Hispanic voters to embrace his “love” and elect him to the White House in 2016. “I’ll win the Latino vote,” he vowed last week.

Hispanics have answered his call emphatically, and their answer is: no thanks.

The vast majority of Hispanic voters say they will not vote for the billionaire businessman and TV star, according to a new survey by broadcaster Univision. Most voters added that they found his comments offensive and do not believe his ideas represent the Republican party at large.

The results should be a relief for Trump’s Republican rivals, who have taken pains to distance themselves from the flamboyant mogul and his remarks about “rapists”, “criminals” and “tremendous infectious disease” coming into the US from Mexico.

Seventy-nine percent of the 1,400 Hispanic voters said that Trump’s comments were offensive; 71% had an unfavorable opinion of the candidate. A healthy majority of 61% said that his derogatory remarks were Trump’s views alone and did not reflect his party’s. Only 7% said they would vote for him, far fewer than the 38% who preferred former governor Jeb Bush and the 22% who preferred Senator Marco Rubio.

Bush and Rubio, both fluent in Spanish and longstanding Florida politicians, have tried particularly hard to court Hispanic voters in their swing state and others.

Univision itself weighed in on Trump after the furore over his comments, severing business ties with him last month. Most respondents said they agreed with corporations who broke with Trump, businesses that now include Macy’s and ESPN.

Trump shot to the top of poll averages for all voters this week, surpassing Bush, who has for months led the crowded pack of Republicans.

But the bipartisan Univision poll had bad news for the Republican field. Nearly 70% of Hispanic voters said they liked Hillary Clinton, versus 36% who felt favorably toward Bush and 35% toward Rubio. More than 90% of Hispanic voters said they would very likely vote in 2016, and in swing-state matchups between Bush and Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, Clinton won them all.

Only in Florida – the state that delivered victory to Bush’s brother in 2000 – did Jeb Bush stand within 10 points of the former secretary of state, with 44% saying they would vote for him compared to 49% backing Clinton. In Nevada, North Carolina and Colorado, Clinton had double-digit leads.

Among voters of all ethnic groups, Clinton has a slimmer lead over Bush in averaged polls: 50% to his 41.6% around the country.

Unfortunately for Republicans who believe presidential approval ratings indicate trends in an election, 64% of the Hispanic voters also had an extremely favorable opinion of Barack Obama.

More than half said they felt inclined to vote for a candidate who favored a path to citizenship or legal status for undocumented immigrants – an issue that Republicans have failed to build a coalition around for years, despite repeated efforts to do so and broaden the party’s appeal.

In contrast, nearly half the Hispanic voters said that normalizing relations with Cuba makes no difference in their decision, and 34% said they support Obama’s rapprochement with Havana.

The survey also had surprises. Nearly 70% of the voters surveyed did not know who Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders was, a statistic that reflects Clinton’s dominance despite Sanders’ rising place in the broader polls.

And although nearly every candidate has peppered their speeches with bits of Spanish in an effort to court Hispanics, 68% of the surveyed voters said they did not care whether a candidate could speak it at all.