Iran nuclear deal may force clerics to change rhetoric

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33537627

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The nuclear accord reached in Vienna between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers marks a major victory for Iran's President Hassan Rouhani.

He was one of the main architects of the idea of negotiations with the West back in 2003, when he was the chief of the National Security Council in the cabinet of the former reformist President, Mohammad Khatami.

Together with Iran's then-representative to the UN, now Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, they handled the talks in Europe and in New York respectively.

Iran agreed to suspend uranium enrichment during the negotiations. However, they were put on hold after the arrival on the scene of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who succeeded Mr Khatami as president in 2005.

The following year, Iran resumed enriching uranium. The UN Security Council responded by adopting the first of six resolutions, four which included progressively expansive sanctions.

Mr Rouhani was elected president in 2013, after campaigning on the promise that he would broker and agreement with the P5+1, get the sanctions lifted and end Iran's international isolation.

'Relief and exuberance'

On Tuesday, he declared that the nuclear accord meant the "end to acts of tyranny against our nation and the start of co-operation with the world".

However, there were, as expected, some hardline critiques of the deal inside Iran.

The newspaper Keyhan described the deal as "unsatisfactory", saying it was fudging Iran's red lines.

"Victory without war," was, by contrast, the headline of the reformist Sharq newspaper.

And for many ordinary Iranians the day was marked with celebrations in the street.

"Sanctions have affected the everyday life of people," admitted the president in his official address.

Iranians are tired of long years of isolation and high inflation, the difficulties of trade, transportation, insurance and banking limitations, problems with travelling to the West, and even cultural exchanges.

They know that the lifting of sanctions will strengthen Iran's economy, bringing in fresh investment and opening up trade and relations with the world.

They know the effects of the deal may not be immediate but in the very least it will gradually bring in the badly needed oil income amounting to approximately $8bn (£5.1bn) per month.

The value of Iranian currency will be readjusted, making foreign exchange less painful.

Increased trade will also boost the employment market.

"Sheer relief and exuberance," is how one businessman described the way many Iranians are feeling.

'Constructive engagement'

Politically, it will not necessarily put the reformists back in the driving seat but it may strengthen their potential to increase their seats in the next parliamentary elections and give Mr Rouhani a better chance to win a second term in 2017.

The lifting of sanctions will also be good news for Iran's powerful Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) which has a multi-billion dollar business empire.

Although the IRGC's overall military machinery will continue to dominate Iran's politics, high-ranking officers - such as Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani - may now be more willing to co-operate on a limited scale with the US forces in Iraq.

Gen Soleimani has been influential in supporting Iraqi Shia militias in pushing Islamic State (IS) militants back from key positions.

The success of the deal contrasted President Rouhani's policy of "constructive engagement" with the hawkish approach of the former President Ahmadinejad, who antagonised the West and whose supporters are now frustrated that they missed their chance.

"Unless and until the deal is tested against red lines there will be no celebration," the hardline Rajanews wrote on Twitter immediately after Tuesday's announcement. "This would give the wrong message to the enemy."

'Never ending fight'

The deal could indeed undermine the dominant narrative of the Islamic Republic, which has, since the inception of the Iranian revolution in 1979, centred on enmity with the United States.

"Should we continue to fight against arrogance after nuclear negotiations?" a university student asked the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Saturday.

"Fight against arrogance and global imperialism is never ending," he replied.

Over the past 35 years of authoritarian rule, it is by using that anti-Western narrative that Iran's Islamic establishment has blocked democratic freedoms and defined the limits of the most basic personal rights.

Ayatollah Khamenei cannot, however, continue to keep people engaged with that old rhetoric.

He will either have to adjust its tone or alternatively replace it with new messages. And he seems already to be moving that way.

"A good leader would observe virtues" and "love people by heart", he advised President Rouhani when congratulating the team on the success of the deal.

The deal will not create a drastic change in the attitude of the Islamic Republic towards the West and it may be too soon to jump to historical conclusions.

But Iranians and their six partners in the deal can now celebrate choosing diplomacy over war, opening endless future horizons for co-operation and consultation.

Dr Massoumeh Torfeh is a research associate at the London School of Economics (LSE) and School of Oriental and African Studies (Soas), specialising in the politics of Iran, Afghanistan and central Asia. Formerly, she was the UN director of strategic communications in Afghanistan.